Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that the overall performance of covered mainland property management companies is expected to meet expectations, with profit growth in the low single digits, but increasing differentiation among companies [1][2] Group 1: Profit Growth Expectations - Greentown Service (02869) and China Resources Mixc Lifestyle (01209) are expected to achieve the highest profit growth, with a year-on-year increase of 10% to 15% [1] - Poly Property (06049) and China Overseas Property (02669) are projected to have mid-single-digit growth [1] - Sunac Services (01516) may continue to face a decline in core profits due to issues with receivables from past projects and non-core business burdens [1] Group 2: Cash Collection and Market Dynamics - Leading companies continue to benefit from third-party market consolidation, but weak cash collection remains a major obstacle [2] - Despite intensified competition, most property management companies have achieved their annual expansion goals, highlighting significant long-term market potential [2] - The cash collection ratio decreased by 1 to 2 percentage points year-on-year due to reduced resident prepayments and an increase in the proportion of high vacancy projects delivered after 2022 [2] Group 3: Profitability and Cash Flow - Short-term profit margins for mainland property management and service companies remain under pressure [2] - Leading project management companies are expected to exit low-quality and non-core projects to optimize their business portfolios, maintaining annual operating cash flow at around 1 times profit [2] - The reduction of third-party receivables continues to be a key driver of profit differentiation among property management companies [2]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that the overall performance of covered mainland property management companies is expected to meet expectations, with profit growth projected to be in the low single digits, but with increasing differentiation among companies [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Greentown Service (02869) and China Resources Mixc Lifestyle (01209) are expected to achieve the highest profit growth, with a year-on-year increase of 10% to 15% [1] - Poly Property (06049) and China Overseas Property (02669) are anticipated to have median growth rates [1] - Sunac Services (01516) may continue to face a decline in core profits due to issues with receivables from past projects and non-core business drag [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Leading companies continue to benefit from third-party market consolidation, although weak cash collection remains a major obstacle [1] - Despite intensified competition, most property management companies have achieved their annual expansion targets, highlighting significant long-term market potential [1] - The cash collection ratio declined by 1 to 2 percentage points year-on-year due to reduced resident prepayments and an increase in the proportion of high vacancy projects delivered after 2022 [1] Group 3: Profitability and Cash Flow - Short-term profit margins for mainland property management and service companies remain under pressure [1] - Leading project management companies are expected to exit low-quality and non-core projects to optimize their business portfolios, maintaining annual operating cash flow at around one times profit [1] - The ongoing reduction of third-party receivables continues to be a key driver of profit differentiation among property management companies [1]

Core Viewpoint - Ruiyuan Fund disclosed its Q4 2025 report, indicating strategic adjustments in its portfolio, including increased positions in specific sectors while reducing exposure to others, reflecting a proactive approach to investment management [1][3]. Group 1: Portfolio Adjustments - The Ruiyuan Growth Value Mixed Fund increased its holdings in Cambricon (688256.SH) while reducing positions in Xinyisheng (300502.SZ), Alibaba-W (09988), and Dongshan Precision (002384.SZ) [1]. - The top ten holdings saw a shift away from telecommunications stocks, replaced by solar energy and high-end semiconductor equipment manufacturers, indicating a focus on sectors with strong performance in Q4 [1]. - The fund aims to minimize investment uncertainties in Q1 2026 while maintaining a focus on prominent sectors and stocks [1]. Group 2: Performance Metrics - As of the report's end, the net asset value per share of Ruiyuan Growth Value Mixed A Fund was 1.9685 yuan, with a growth rate of 0.57%, underperforming its benchmark by 1.37% [2]. - The net asset value per share of Ruiyuan Growth Value Mixed C Fund was 1.9159 yuan, with a growth rate of 0.47%, also underperforming its benchmark by 1.37% [2]. Group 3: Future Strategy - The fund managers, Fu Pengbo and Zhu Lin, prepared for 2026 by reducing holdings in companies with weak fundamentals and increasing investments in data center liquid cooling and computing power-related companies, based on industry trends and individual stock research [3]. - Ruiyuan's other fund, managed by Zhao Feng, has reached its highest stock position in three years, reintroducing holdings in Midea Group (000333.SZ) and other companies while reducing exposure to certain stocks [3]. Group 4: Market Outlook - Zhao Feng noted a favorable macroeconomic cycle for equity assets, with expectations of improved corporate earnings quality as China gradually moves out of deflationary expectations [4]. - The focus will remain on companies with solid fundamentals and strong competitive barriers, aiming for excess returns through structural allocation [4]. - Attention is directed towards domestic leading companies expanding overseas, which are expected to drive performance growth through enhanced product quality and brand recognition over the next five to ten years [4].

业绩方面，截至报告期末睿远成长价值混合A基金份额净值为1.9685元，报告期内，该类基金份额净值增长率为0.57%，同期业绩比 较基准收益率为-1.37%；截至报告期末睿远成长价值混合C基金份额净值为1.9159元，报告期内，该类基金份额净值增长率为 0.47%，同期业绩比较基准收益率为-1.37%。 傅鹏博和朱璘在季报中表示，为2026年的组合搭建做了准备：一方面，减持了基本面趋势偏弱的公司，降低了其对组合净值可能带 来的负面影响；另一方面，增加了数据中心液冷、存力和算力的相关公司，主要是基于对行业发展态势，以及个股跟踪研究后的选 择。对于上一年重点配置的光模块、PCB材料、芯片、数据中心液冷等板块和个股，持续看好其未来的发展，2026年将进一步加大 研究力度。 近日，睿远基金披露2025年四季报。在2025年四季度期间，傅鹏博和朱璘管理的睿远成长价值混合基金加仓了寒武纪(688256.SH)， 新易盛(300502.SZ)、阿里巴巴-W(09988)、东山精密(002384.SZ)等个股则遭其减仓。从前十大持仓来看，较为明显的变化是移动运营 商个股配置不在前十行列，取而代之的是四季度表现突出的光伏和半导体 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to China Resources Mixc Lifestyle Services Limited (01209.HK) with a current price of HKD 43.44 and a fair value of HKD 48.72 [6][33]. Core Insights - The shopping center segment shows strong performance, with both scale and quality being emphasized. The company is expected to experience significant growth in its commercial operations, particularly in shopping centers, which are projected to drive revenue growth [2][33]. - The company is entering a critical development phase over the next five years, focusing on both expansion and high-quality service delivery. This includes a strategy to enhance customer flow and membership engagement [33]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2023A to 2027E are as follows: - 2023A: RMB 14,767 million - 2024A: RMB 17,043 million (22.9% growth) - 2025E: RMB 18,026 million (5.8% growth) - 2026E: RMB 19,218 million (6.6% growth) - 2027E: RMB 20,434 million (6.3% growth) [3][14]. - EBITDA is forecasted to grow from RMB 4,304 million in 2023A to RMB 6,985 million in 2027E [3]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from RMB 2,929 million in 2023A to RMB 4,824 million in 2027E, with a growth rate of 32.8% in 2023A and 10.6% in 2027E [3][14]. Revenue Breakdown - The company’s revenue is segmented into commercial and property channels: - Commercial channel revenue is projected to grow significantly, with shopping center revenue expected to increase by 16.5% in 2025, 14.0% in 2026, and 14.0% in 2027 [14][21]. - Property channel revenue is expected to grow at a slower pace, with community space revenue projected to decline by 2% in 2025, followed by modest growth in subsequent years [21][22]. Profitability Metrics - The overall gross margin is expected to improve from 35.6% in 2025 to 37.9% in 2027, driven by enhanced profitability in the commercial segment [22][24]. - The core net profit margin is projected to rise from 21.7% in 2025 to 23.5% in 2027, reflecting improved operational efficiency [30][32]. Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes the importance of balancing scale and quality in the company's growth strategy, with a focus on expanding its commercial footprint while maintaining high service standards [33]. - The fair value assessment is based on a price-to-earnings ratio of 23x, reflecting the company's historical performance and future growth potential [33].

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that while the profit drag from related parties for mainland property management companies has largely dissipated, challenges such as weakened collections and rising vacancy fees persist, alongside a soft macro environment and subpar service quality, leading to fee pressure [1] Industry Summary - The firm expects industry profits to grow by 3%, 5%, and 7% year-on-year from 2025 to 2027, with revenue growth around 5%, but profit margins are under pressure due to weakened collections [1] - Property management services are anticipated to be the main growth driver in the industry, while value-added services are expected to remain sluggish [1] Stock Selection - The firm recommends high-quality companies with robust asset bases, highlighting China Resources Mixc Lifestyle (01209) which is expected to achieve mid-teens growth driven by mall consumption, with a dividend yield of 4% to 5%, and a target price raised from HKD 46.38 to HKD 48.93, maintaining an "Overweight" rating [1] - Greentown Service (02869) is noted for high earnings visibility and margin expansion, also receiving an "Overweight" rating, with a target price slightly decreased from HKD 5.78 to HKD 5.54 [1] - Country Garden Services (06098) is viewed as a tactical choice, rated "In Line with Market," with a target price increased from HKD 6.07 to HKD 7.04, supported by stable cash flow, improved shareholder returns, and ongoing share buybacks yielding approximately 8% [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that while the profit drag from related parties for mainland property management companies has largely dissipated, challenges remain due to weakened collections and rising vacancy fees, alongside a soft macro environment and suboptimal service quality, which exert pressure on fees [1] - The forecast for industry earnings growth is projected at 3%, 5%, and 7% for the years 2025 to 2027, with revenue growth around 5%, although profit margins are expected to be under pressure due to weakened collections [1] - Property management services are anticipated to be the main growth driver within the industry, while value-added services are expected to remain sluggish [1] Group 2 - The report recommends selecting high-quality companies with robust asset bases, highlighting that China Resources Mixc Lifestyle (01209) is expected to achieve mid-teens growth driven by mall consumption, with a dividend yield of 4% to 5%, and a target price increase from HKD 46.38 to HKD 48.93, maintaining an "Overweight" rating [1] - Greentown Service (02869) is noted for its high earnings visibility and margin expansion, also receiving an "Overweight" rating, with a target price adjustment from HKD 5.78 to HKD 5.54 [1] - Country Garden Services (06098) is viewed as a tactical choice, rated "In Line with Market," with a target price increase from HKD 6.07 to HKD 7.04, supported by stable cash flow, improved shareholder returns, and ongoing share buybacks yielding approximately 8% [1]

Industry Overview - Morgan Stanley reports that the profitability drag from related parties for mainland property management companies has largely dissipated, but challenges remain with weakened collections and rising vacancy fees [1] - The macroeconomic environment is weak, and service quality is not ideal, leading to pricing pressure [1] - The firm expects industry profits to grow by 3%, 5%, and 7% year-on-year from 2025 to 2027, with revenue growth around 5%, but profit margins are under pressure due to weakened collections [1] Company Insights - Morgan Stanley suggests that property management services will be the main growth driver in the industry, while value-added services will continue to be sluggish [1] - China Resources Mixc Lifestyle (01209) is expected to achieve mid-teens growth driven by mall consumption, with a dividend yield of 4% to 5%. The target price is slightly raised from HKD 46.38 to HKD 48.93, maintaining an "Overweight" rating [1] - Greentown Service (02869) has high earnings visibility and expanding profit margins, also receiving an "Overweight" rating, with the target price slightly decreased from HKD 5.78 to HKD 5.54 [1] - Country Garden Services (06098) is viewed as a tactical choice, rated "In Line with Market," with the target price increased from HKD 6.07 to HKD 7.04, supported by stable cash flow, improved shareholder returns, and ongoing share buybacks yielding about 8% [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the property management industry in mainland China is expected to see profit growth of 3%, 5%, and 7% from 2025 to 2027, with revenue growth around 5%, although profit margins will be pressured due to weaker collections [1] - Morgan Stanley anticipates that property management services will be the main growth driver in the industry, while value-added services will continue to remain sluggish [1] Group 2 - The report recommends selecting high-quality companies with robust asset bases, highlighting China Resources Mixc Lifestyle as expected to achieve double-digit growth driven by mall consumption, with a dividend yield of 4% to 5% and a target price increase from HKD 46.38 to HKD 48.93, maintaining an "Overweight" rating [1] - Greentown Service is noted for its high earnings visibility and expanding profit margins, also receiving an "Overweight" rating, with a target price slightly decreased from HKD 5.78 to HKD 5.54 [1] - Country Garden Services is suggested as a tactical choice, rated "In Line with Market," with a target price increase from HKD 6.07 to HKD 7.04, supported by stable cash flow, improved shareholder returns, and ongoing share buybacks resulting in an approximately 8% yield [1]

Core Viewpoint - China Resources Vientiane Life (01209) shows a positive market response with a 3.94% increase in stock price, currently at HKD 43.76, with a trading volume of HKD 81.1269 million [1]. Group 1: Financial Projections - CICC forecasts a 20% to 25% year-on-year growth in retail sales for shopping centers in 2025, with same-store sales expected to increase by 10% to 15% [1]. - Daiwa Securities predicts a 12.2% year-on-year growth in core net profit for China Resources Vientiane Life in 2025, with revenue expected to grow by 6.8% [1]. Group 2: Business Segments - The property and office segments are expected to remain stable, with the basic property management business projected to maintain growth supported by active external expansion, with new contract amounts for the year expected to remain around RMB 1 billion, consistent with 2023-2024 [1]. - The value-added services segment is anticipated to face some pressure due to environmental factors, but the impact is considered manageable [1]. - Revenue from property management is expected to grow only by 1.4% due to a significant contraction in value-added service income, while revenue from commercial operations is estimated to grow by 16.8% driven by shopping center revenue growth [1].