2025.10. 10 本文字数：2469，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 冯迪凡 得益于人们对人工智能（AI）促进增长潜力的兴奋，科技行业正在蓬勃发展。 但如果科技行业未能达到预期，AI会不会重蹈互联网泡沫的覆辙？ 近期，各大国际机构、投行在观察到AI相关产品支出的增加提振全球经济和贸易的同时，也对AI带来的资本热潮正推 动科技股估值快速攀升发出警示。 国际货币基金组织（IMF）总裁格奥尔基耶娃近期表示，全球股价在对AI提升生产率潜力的乐观情绪推动下飙升，但 金融状况可能突然转向，当前估值"正逼近25年前互联网热潮的水平"，若市场发生剧烈回调，将拖累全球增长。 德意志银行（下称"德银"）最近的研究报告显示，AI热潮正在帮助美国经济避免陷入衰退，但这种状况无法无限期持 续。 德银全球外汇研究主管萨拉韦洛斯（George Saravelos）表示，如果没有大型科技企业大量投资建设新AI数据中 心，美国今年将接近经济衰退。 牛津经济研究院也在最新报告中警示，科技行业一直是近期美国经济增长的主要驱动力，其股价飙升，并在设备和软 件方面投入巨资。"但如果科技行业遭遇衰退，美国将面临风险：如果没有科技投资，到2 ...

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Core Insights - Google processes an astonishing 1.3 trillion tokens monthly, reflecting its AI capabilities and growth in the industry [1][3][6] - The token consumption metric has become a new competitive benchmark in the AI sector, indicating the scale and effectiveness of AI models [14][15][18] Token Consumption Growth - Google's token processing has surged from 970 billion tokens per month a year ago to over 1.3 trillion tokens now, showcasing significant growth [3][5] - In comparison, Microsoft reported processing over 100 trillion tokens in its latest quarter, which is significantly lower than Google's figures [8] Industry Comparison - Other major players like OpenAI and ByteDance are also processing trillions of tokens, but Google stands out with its unique position in the "trillion" category [8][9] - OpenAI's API usage translates to approximately 260 trillion tokens monthly, but still does not match Google's scale [8] Importance of Token Consumption - Token consumption serves as a measure of various aspects, including pre-training data scale, model understanding, and commercial value [15][16] - The industry has established a new benchmark of 1 billion tokens in daily consumption as a standard for evaluating AI model deployment and market demand [17][18] Future Outlook - Google's rapid growth in token consumption sets a new standard for the industry, raising questions about who will be the next player to reach the "trillion" level [18]

Core Insights - Alphabet (GOOGL) stock experienced a 34.2% change from July 11, 2025, to October 9, 2025, primarily driven by a 28.2% shift in the company's P/E multiple, indicating increased expectations for future performance [2][3] Financial Performance - Google reported strong Q2 2025 results with consolidated revenue rising 14% year-over-year to $96.4 billion and earnings per share increasing by 22% to $2.31, both exceeding analyst expectations [5] - Google Cloud was a significant contributor, showing a 32% revenue growth attributed to AI infrastructure and generative AI solutions [5] - Analysts project Q3 2025 earnings per share between $2.29 and $2.30, with revenue estimates around $84.56 billion [9] Capital Expenditure and Strategic Moves - The company raised its capital expenditure guidance for 2025 to $85 billion, focusing on AI infrastructure and cloud services [9] - Google has initiated cash dividend distributions to shareholders, with a quarterly dividend of $0.21 [9] Market Reactions and Investor Sentiment - Following the Q2 results, the stock initially declined due to concerns over increased capital expenditures and potential margin pressures for Q3 [5] - In September 2025, the stock saw a 14% rally driven by enthusiasm for AI and a favorable outcome in the Google Search antitrust case, which did not require divestment of Chrome or Android [5] - Despite strong performance, stock movement faced challenges from ongoing regulatory scrutiny and rising competition in the AI sector [5] Insider Activity - Significant insider stock sales occurred, including transactions by CEO Sundar Pichai and Director Frances Arnold in late September and early October 2025 [9]

Google’s dominance is under threat. GenAI tools like ChatGPT and Perplexity are changing how people find information.Liz Reid, VP of Google Search, tells the Bold Names podcast she believes this moment will expand, not erode, how people explore the web. https://t.co/Pk05ZyJLDZ ...

CMA数字市场执行董事Will Hayter声称："我们发现，谷歌在搜索及广告领域处于战略性地位，英国超 过90%的搜索活动均发生在其平台上。在综合考虑外界对拟议决定的反馈后，我们今日正式确认，将谷 歌的搜索服务指定为具备战略市场地位。" 当地时间周五，英国竞争与市场管理局(CMA)发布声明称，根据英国新的数字市场竞争制度，确认 Alphabet旗下谷歌在搜索服务领域具有"战略市场地位"。美股盘前，谷歌A股价微跌0.2%。 此次英国的"战略市场地位"认定属于今年早些时候生效的数字市场竞争新规下的一部分。这也使得谷歌 成为了英国首家被纳入这一监管框架的企业，意味着其在线搜索与广告业务将受到更严格的反垄断审 查。 CMA表示，该决定是在为期近九个月的调查后作出的，谷歌在在线搜索和广告领域拥有"显著且根深蒂 固的市场力量"，因此符合战略市场地位( SMS)的认定标准。监管方同时对谷歌搜索结果的公平性、高 昂的广告成本以及AI生成搜索回应提出了关切。 目前尚不清楚具体的监管措施将采取何种形式。CMA表示，针对可能干预措施的磋商预计将在今年晚 些时候启动。 相关措施可能包括：要求谷歌提供更公平的搜索排名机制；给予出版商 ...

Wall Street has been mulling over fears of a bubble in the artificial intelligence (AI) space for quite some time. Analysts are divided in their views on whether AI investments can pay off within the required timeframe. Let’s find out what market experts are feeling about it.Fears of a bubble in high-flying U.S. tech stocks may be premature — at least according to Goldman Sachs strategist Peter Oppenheimer, who believes that strong earnings, not speculation, are aiding the current rally, per Bloomberg, as q ...

Market Movements - US stock index futures are all up ahead of the market opening, with Dow futures rising by 0.11%, S&P 500 futures by 0.08%, and Nasdaq futures by 0.09% [1] - European indices show mixed results, with Germany's DAX down by 0.25%, UK's FTSE 100 down by 0.01%, and France's CAC40 remaining unchanged [2][3] - WTI crude oil has decreased by 1.17% to $60.79 per barrel, while Brent crude oil has fallen by 1.09% to $64.51 per barrel [3][4] Company News - Tesla's wholesale sales in China rebounded in September, increasing by 2.8% year-on-year to 90,812 vehicles, ending a two-month decline [8] - Google has been designated as the first company with "strategic market status" in the UK, leading to stricter scrutiny of its online search and advertising business by the Competition and Markets Authority [9] - Qualcomm is under investigation for failing to legally report its acquisition of Autotalks, causing its stock to drop nearly 2% in pre-market trading [9] - Applied Digital reported a significant revenue increase of 84% year-on-year in Q1, driven by surging demand for data center services to support generative AI applications [10] - Stellantis announced a 13% year-on-year increase in global vehicle deliveries in Q3, attributed to new model launches and strong demand in North America [11] Economic Insights - Nuveen Asset Management's CIO suggests that robust corporate earnings, particularly from large tech companies, will likely sustain the US stock market's upward trend into year-end [5] - A report from the Boston Fed indicates rising inflation expectations pose a greater risk to the Fed's ability to control prices, with consumer expectations for one-year inflation increasing [6] - The upcoming release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September is anticipated to occur on schedule, despite the federal government shutdown [6]

Group 1 - Major U.S. stock index futures are showing slight increases, with Dow futures up 0.14%, S&P 500 futures up 0.13%, and Nasdaq futures up 0.16% [1] - Chinese concept stocks are mixed in pre-market trading, with Alibaba down 2.31%, Pinduoduo down 1.34%, JD.com down 0.32%, Ctrip up 2.80%, Baidu down 2.57%, and Li Auto up 0.47% [1] - Stellantis shares rose 3.4% after reporting a 13% year-on-year increase in global deliveries to 1.3 million units in Q3, with North American deliveries up 35% to 403,000 units [1] Group 2 - Spot silver prices have risen nearly 4% to over $51 per ounce [2] - Google is tightening its remote work policy, which may impact employee work-from-anywhere allowances, leading to a 0.2% increase in its stock price [2] - Intel shares increased by 2.1% following the announcement of its first 1.8nm process chip, which boasts a 50% performance improvement at the same power level compared to its predecessor [2] Group 3 - Qualcomm is under investigation for allegedly violating antitrust laws related to its acquisition of Autotalks, resulting in a drop of over 3% in its stock price [2] - The U.S. is investigating 2.88 million Tesla vehicles equipped with "full self-driving" systems due to safety violation reports, causing Tesla's stock to decline by 0.3% [3] Group 4 - Bernstein has lowered its target price for Ferrari from $554 to $475 [4]

In fiscal 2025, revenue surged 15% year over year to $281 billion, driven by record demand for cloud and AI services. Microsoft’s scale is unparalleled, with over 400 new data centers across 70 geographies and enormous investments in GPU and CPU servers, showcasing its ambition to lead the AI-driven future. CEO Satya Nadella views AI as a generational platform change that is altering all aspects of Microsoft’s business, from Azure and Microsoft 365 to security and gaming. With a $368 billion backlog and dou ...