There there was a lot of talk of bubbles just over the last week. Uh bubbles in AI, bubbles in markets. You don't particularly like that term.It's not one you want to use yourself. >> Yeah. You know, I don't I don't I don't like to be, you know, overdramatic.>> Bubble and bubbles. >> Um you know, I've been looking at tech multiples and trying to put tech multiples in a historical context. You know, I've looked at um a variety of datas, a variety of data on public company tech multiples and you know, also pr ...

Alternative Assets and Market Trends - Goldman Sachs 的 CEO David Solomon 讨论了另类资产的演变 [1] - 讨论了 AI 繁荣的影响 [1] - 讨论了并购前景 [1] Financial Performance and Concerns - 讨论了公司业绩 [1] - 讨论了区域性银行和信贷问题 [1]

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs is hosting its 24th annual alternative summit, featuring prominent figures from various sectors, indicating the growing importance of alternative assets in the financial landscape [1][2]. Group 1: Alternative Assets Overview - The alternative assets sector has seen significant growth, with Goldman Sachs managing over $500 billion in alternatives across private equity, private credit, infrastructure, and real estate [4]. - The private capital formation is still in its early stages, suggesting potential for further growth and development in the market [5]. - The U.S. capital markets are highlighted as the most robust globally, with a strong private capital formation ecosystem that supports economic strength [6][7]. Group 2: Access and Investment Considerations - Historically, alternative investments have been limited to wealthier investors due to their illiquid nature, but there is a push for broader access to these products [7][11]. - Investors are encouraged to consider their liquidity needs and time horizons when investing in alternatives, with suggestions of a 20-25% allocation in retirement accounts for long-term investors [10][23]. - The discussion around the transparency and valuation of private assets is crucial as these products become more integrated into public markets, raising questions about the need for independent verification [14][15]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Valuation - The valuation of private equity assets has been slower due to discrepancies between marked values and actual market conditions, particularly following the market fluctuations in 2020 and 2021 [16][22]. - The industry perspective suggests that maintaining different valuations for private assets compared to public markets is a feature rather than a bug, emphasizing the unique nature of private investments [17]. - The importance of marking assets accurately for liquidity options is highlighted, as it affects the value delivered to investors seeking liquidity [19].

Group 1 - The recent rebound in the US stock market is primarily driven by short sellers being forced to cover their positions, rather than a genuine recovery in market fundamentals [1][2] - Goldman Sachs' index of heavily shorted stocks has surged by 16% this month, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 0.7% increase, indicating a potential "squeeze" effect on short sellers [1][2] - Investor sentiment is shifting towards caution, as evidenced by traders selling call options to raise funds for downside protection, contrasting with earlier concerns about missing out on gains [2][3] Group 2 - Both discretionary and systematic traders are reducing their exposure to US equities, with discretionary fund managers moving from a "neutral" to a "significantly underweight" position [3][4] - Systematic traders, particularly trend-following funds, have also decreased their stock positions to the lowest level in over three months, indicating a cautious approach [3][4] - The speculative fervor in the market is not limited to heavily shorted stocks but is also evident in other high-risk areas, raising concerns about market fragility [5]

Goldman Sachs’ Jan Hatzius warned that U.S. GDP estimates showing 3.8% growth in Q2 and 3.3% in Q3 may be overstated, owing to missing data from the government shutdown and weakening labor trends. He pointed to falling employment indicators and survey data signaling stagnation, arguing job market weakness offers a more accurate gauge of current growth. Hatzius also cited temporary boosts from tariff-driven stockpiling earlier this year and warned that younger workers face growing hiring challenges, particu ...

The NYSE Asset classes are moving unusually relative to one another, puzzling even the most seasoned equity market traders. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. macro trader Bobby Molavi points to equities that are climbing every wall of worry, with indexes, single-stocks and other assets like gold scaling record highs. At the same time, volatility remains subdued regardless of the news flow, retail buying is unstoppable and artificial intelligence spending keeps booming. Most Read from Bloomberg “Everything is we ...

Core Insights - The US stock market is experiencing a recovery from recent selloffs, primarily driven by short-sellers covering their positions, indicating a potential market squeeze [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - Goldman Sachs' basket of the most-shorted stocks has increased by 16% this month, outperforming the S&P 500 Index, which only advanced by 0.7% [2]. - The S&P 500 has shown remarkable resilience, achieving one of its best performance streaks since the 1950s, despite ongoing uncertainties [3]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment - There is a growing trend of investors covering their short positions ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision scheduled for October 29, which may create a misleading sense of confidence in the market [3]. - Risk aversion is rising as traders are now selling upside calls to fund downside protection, reflecting a shift in sentiment as the market rallies [5]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - There is a prevailing belief that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates soon, but some analysts caution that the actual impact of such reductions may be overestimated [6]. - The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) has fallen below the key level of 20, indicating reduced market volatility after a brief spike, suggesting a stabilization in investor sentiment [7].

Market Dynamics - Goldman Sachs is expanding its wealth-management division in Saudi Arabia [1] - Competition is intensifying among Wall Street giants to tap into Saudi Arabia, the Middle East's largest economy [1]

Core Insights - The global oil market is beginning to show signs of a long-anticipated supply surplus, as indicated by high-frequency satellite data and official inventory data from the International Energy Agency and the United States [1] Group 1: Supply Dynamics - OECD inventories have increased, with visible commercial stocks rising by 340,000 barrels per day year-to-date, accounting for one-quarter of total inventories [1] - This proportion of visible commercial stocks is expected to rise to one-third by the end of 2025 [1]

智通财经APP获悉，据知情人士透露，包括摩根大通、美国银行和高盛集团在内的一批美国银行，在缺 乏担保或抵押品的情况下，对向阿根廷提供200亿美元贷款持犹豫态度。 摩根大通、美国银行、高盛和花旗集团未立即回应置评请求。 阿根廷央行周一表示，它已与美国财政部签署了一项200亿美元的汇率稳定协议，这使得美国对这个拉 美第三大经济体的支持总额达到400亿美元。财政部还在公开市场上购买了阿根廷比索。 知情人士指出，美国的这些融资机制也增加了国际货币基金组织与美国财政部之间发生冲突的可能性， 基金组织的官员担心特朗普政府可能向阿根廷施压，要求其将美国债务置于IMF巨额贷款之前。 知情人士透露，银行家们正在等待财政部的指引，明确阿根廷能够提供何种抵押品，或者华盛顿是否计 划自行支持这一融资机制。 知情人士称，该融资机制尚未最终确定，如果银行的抵押品问题得不到解决，可能无法成型。 美国财政部一位发言人表示："关于该机制的讨论仍在进行中，我们期待在谈判完成后提供更多细节。" 美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特上周表示，该部正与银行和投资基金合作，创建一个200亿美元的融资机 制，用于投资这个南美国家的主权债务。 ...