Week ahead: Smart trades start with knowing what’s next.💼 Next big earnings ahead: $NFLX | $GE | $LMT | $KO | $TSLA | $IBM | $INTC | $PG$INTC +60%, $TSLA +37%, $IBM flat over the past 90 days. How will earnings move the chart this time? https://t.co/Co1vjlqv6p ...

Group 1 - IBM is expected to report third-quarter revenue of $16.1 billion and adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $2.45, with potential to exceed these expectations due to strong demand for AI and growth in hybrid cloud business [1][2] - The company has embedded AI capabilities in over 70 workflows, including sales, finance, and marketing, which is expected to drive future growth [1] - IBM's strategic partnerships, such as with Anthropic and S&P Global, are enhancing its AI solutions and expanding its market presence [2] Group 2 - Wedbush analysts believe IBM is well-positioned in the current hybrid cloud and AI application demand transformation, with quantum computing initiatives contributing to long-term profitability [2] - IBM has been included in Wedbush's "Best Investment Ideas" and "Ives AI 30" lists, highlighting its potential to define the future landscape of AI development [2]

Market Sentiment - Initial trends indicate a moderately higher open for Wall Street, driven by easing trade tensions between the U.S. and China, which is likely to boost investor sentiment [1] - Major U.S. indices finished positively on Friday, with the Dow up 238.37 points (0.5%), Nasdaq up 117.44 points (0.5%), and S&P 500 up 34.94 points (0.5%) [2] Economic Indicators - The Leading Indicators for September are expected to show a decline of 0.3%, an improvement from the previous month's decline of 0.5% [3] - Treasury Bill auctions for both three-month and six-month maturities are scheduled, indicating ongoing government financing activities [3][4] Company Earnings - A number of significant companies, including Coca-Cola, General Motors, Netflix, AT&T, IBM, Tesla, and Intel, are set to report their quarterly results this week, which may attract investor attention [1]

Core Viewpoint - This week is significant for earnings reports from major tech and industrial companies, including Tesla, Netflix, Intel, and others, indicating a pivotal moment for stock performance [1]. Earnings Reports Schedule - **Monday**: No notable reports [4] - **Tuesday**: - Netflix (NFLX) expected move: 7.9% - Coca-Cola (KO) expected move: 2.9% - General Motors (GM) expected move: 6.5% - General Electric (GE) expected move: 6.5% - Capital One Financial (COF) expected move: 6.4% - Texas Instruments (TXN) expected move: 7.36% - Philip Morris (PM) expected move: 5.9% [4] - **Wednesday**: - Tesla (TSLA) expected move: 7.9% - Boston Scientific (BSX) expected move: 4.9% - AT&T (T) expected move: 4.4% - Vertiv (VRT) expected move: 11.4% - IBM expected move: 7.2% - Lam Research (LRCX) expected move: 7.8% - Genworth Financial (GEV) expected move: 8.4% - Kinder Morgan (KMI) expected move: 3.4% [5] - **Thursday**: - Intel (INTC) expected move: 12.1% - Ford (F) expected move: 6.1% - Freeport McMoRan (FCX) expected move: 5.5% - Newmont Mining (NEM) expected move: 7.1% - Blackstone (BX) expected move: 5.6% [6] - **Friday**: - Procter & Gamble (PG) expected move: 3.4% [6] Trading Strategies - Traders can utilize expected moves to structure trades: - Bearish traders may consider selling bear call spreads outside the expected range - Bullish traders can sell bull put spreads outside the expected range or opt for naked puts for higher risk tolerance - Neutral traders might look into iron condors, ideally keeping short strikes outside the expected range [6]. - It is advisable to employ risk-defined strategies and maintain small position sizes when trading options over earnings [7].

Core Insights - IBM and Groq have formed a strategic partnership to enhance AI capabilities for enterprise clients, focusing on high-speed AI inference through Groq's technology integrated with IBM's watsonx Orchestrate [1][2][8] - The collaboration aims to address challenges in deploying AI agents in production, particularly in sectors like healthcare, finance, and manufacturing, by providing a cost-effective and efficient infrastructure [2][6] Partnership Details - The partnership will integrate Groq's LPU architecture with RedHat's open-source vLLM technology, enabling improved inference orchestration and load balancing [1][7] - GroqCloud is reported to deliver over 5X faster and more cost-efficient inference compared to traditional GPU systems, ensuring low latency and reliable performance [3][9] Application in Industries - IBM's healthcare clients can utilize Groq's technology to handle thousands of complex patient inquiries in real-time, enhancing customer experience and decision-making [4][9] - In non-regulated sectors, such as retail, Groq's technology is being used to automate HR processes, thereby increasing employee productivity [5][9] Future Directions - The partnership emphasizes transforming enterprise AI deployment from experimentation to widespread adoption, allowing organizations to leverage AI for immediate and continuous learning [6][8] - IBM will provide immediate access to GroqCloud's capabilities, focusing on delivering high-performance AI solutions tailored to various enterprise needs [6][9]

Group 1 - The report indicates that recent events suggest short-term volatility in the Hong Kong stock market may not have ended, but the long-term upward trend remains unchanged [1] - Economic data, US-China tariff news, US tech earnings, and the Fourth Plenary Session are expected to influence trading patterns and styles in the Hong Kong market [1][2] - The technology sector is facing increased volatility risks, with US tech earnings impacting the trading rhythm of Chinese tech stocks [1][2] Group 2 - The report highlights that the US stock market showed resilience despite concerns over US-China tensions and credit worries, with the Nasdaq leading gains at 2.1% [1][4] - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's dovish stance suggests a likelihood of maintaining the current policy path, with a potential rate cut in October being the optimal solution [1][5] - The report notes that the average win rate for October over the past decade is low, while the advantages of November and December are relatively prominent [1][23] Group 3 - The report discusses the ongoing US government shutdown, which has entered its third week, potentially exacerbating negative impacts on the economy [3] - Concerns over credit quality in regional banks have emerged, but these are viewed as isolated incidents rather than indicative of a broader liquidity crisis [2][3] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring US-China trade relations, as further escalation could negatively impact the US economy and inflation risks [3][4] Group 4 - The report notes that developed markets saw an increase of 1.4% while emerging markets declined by 0.3% during the week [4][12] - The Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 8.0%, and the Hang Seng Index dropped by 4.0%, with public utilities leading sector gains [4][12] - The report highlights significant inflows into financials and non-essential consumer sectors, while the information technology sector experienced outflows [4][12] Group 5 - The report indicates that global stock ETFs saw a net inflow of $446.43 billion, with the US stock ETFs leading at $231.7 billion [7][49] - The technology sector was the top recipient of inflows among global stock ETFs, while the communication sector experienced the most significant outflows [7][51] - The report also notes that institutional investors marginally increased their holdings in gold, with significant inflows into major gold ETFs [6][54]

Core Viewpoint - IBM is positioned as a significant player in the AI sector, with analysts expecting solid performance in the upcoming earnings report, which could alleviate concerns regarding its growth projections for the year [1][2]. Group 1: Earnings Expectations - RBC Capital analyst Matthew Swanson has reiterated an Outperform rating on IBM with a price target of $315.00 ahead of the third-quarter earnings report scheduled for October 22 [1]. - The market is anticipating that IBM will deliver solid results, with a focus on revenue sub-components and the overall top-line figure [2]. - Investors are particularly interested in whether IBM's Q3 performance will address doubts about meeting full-year growth projections for both Red Hat and its total software business [2]. Group 2: Financial Metrics - Analysts will be assessing IBM's free cash flow, which is expected to benefit from the company's "clientzero" cost-saving initiatives [3]. - The use of generative AI technology is highlighted as a means to improve internal operational efficiency [3]. Group 3: Company Overview - IBM is recognized as a multinational technology company and a pioneer in artificial intelligence, providing AI consulting services and a suite of AI software products [3].

Core Insights - The article discusses the recent developments in Bitcoin security, particularly the implications of quantum computing on its encryption methods [1][3][5] Group 1: Bitcoin Security and Quantum Computing - The U.S. Department of Justice announced it had recovered over $15 billion in Bitcoin from a hacking case, raising concerns about the security of decentralized currencies [3] - Current encryption methods, such as ECDSA used in Bitcoin, are deemed secure against existing technology, but advancements in quantum computing pose a future threat [5][9] - IBM aims to develop a quantum computer with 100,000 qubits by 2033, which could potentially break Bitcoin's encryption if sufficient stable qubits are achieved [5][11] Group 2: Vulnerabilities and Community Response - Approximately 30% of Bitcoin addresses have exposed public keys, making them vulnerable to future quantum attacks [7] - The Bitcoin community has been slow to respond to the potential threat of quantum computing, with little action taken towards adopting post-quantum cryptography standards [9] - The urgency of addressing these vulnerabilities is emphasized, as the timeline for quantum breakthroughs may be shorter than anticipated, potentially rendering Bitcoin's security obsolete [11]

Group 1 - Trade tariffs are significantly impacting the global economy in 2025, with the Trump administration imposing double-digit import fees on goods from most countries, particularly affecting markets like China and India [1] - IBM operates extensively on a global scale, with research labs on six continents and more employees in India than in the United States, generating nearly half of its revenues from the Americas in 2024 [2][3] - Despite the ongoing trade tensions and tariff policies, IBM is not overly concerned, as the company has strategically diversified its supply chain, with imported goods accounting for less than 5% of its overall spending [6][8] Group 2 - IBM's minimal exposure to tariffs means that the financial impact is limited to under 1% of total revenues, even with the complexities of current tariff rates [8] - The company is actively seeking alternative suppliers for components affected by tariffs, although the overall financial impact remains relatively small [8] - Even if tariffs were to increase significantly, the manageable costs would not pose a substantial threat to IBM's financial health, as the cost of products and services accounted for only 16.3% of total revenues last year [9]

Economic Data - China will release key economic indicators including GDP, real estate investment, and retail sales on October 20, with expectations of a slight decline in GDP growth rate for Q3 [7][8] - The expected year-on-year decline in national real estate development investment is -12.9% [3] - The industrial added value for September is anticipated to show a year-on-year growth of 5.2% [3] Events - The 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China will hold its fourth plenary session from October 20 to 23 in Beijing [9] - The 14th National People's Congress Standing Committee's 18th meeting will take place from October 24 to 28 in Beijing [9] - The Federal Reserve will hold a payment innovation conference on October 21 to discuss stablecoins, AI, and tokenization [9] Industry Conferences - The China Solid-State Battery Conference will be held from October 22 to 24 in Hefei, with participation from companies like CATL and Guoxuan High-Tech [12] - The Low Altitude Economy Innovation Application and Standardization Promotion Conference is scheduled for October 24 in Beijing [12] - The 2025 Satellite Application Conference will take place from October 25 to 27 in Beijing [12] - Xiaopeng Motors is expected to hold a technology day on October 24, potentially unveiling a robot [13] Earnings Reports - Major companies set to report earnings include Tesla, IBM, Intel, Coca-Cola, and Procter & Gamble, with a focus on Tesla's Full Self-Driving progress and Intel's AI chip orders [14][15] - In China, companies like CATL, iFlytek, China Unicom, China Mobile, and China Telecom will also release their latest earnings reports [16] - CATL's solid-state battery technology roadmap may trigger a reevaluation of the value in the new energy industry if clear mass production signals are released [16]