Core Viewpoint - The signing of the Chinese Olympic Committee by Li Ning in the first half of 2025 marks the beginning of a new product and marketing cycle for the company, with potential for stock price increase if there is improvement in revenue or profit in the medium to long term [1] Industry Trends - The demand for sports footwear and apparel remains resilient, with increasing diversification and specialization in sports participation among residents [2] - The market size for sports apparel in China is projected to reach 260.2 billion yuan by 2024, with a CAGR of 9% expected from 2025 to 2029 [2] Brand Highlights - The Olympic cycle is expected to enhance the company's brand strength, with increased sponsorship in niche categories [2] - Li Ning has signed with the Chinese Olympic Committee in the first half of 2025, aiming to boost brand awareness through diverse Olympic marketing [2] - The company is increasing support for running and basketball categories, with a growing number of marathon sponsorships and events in niche sports like badminton and pickleball [2] Product Highlights - Professional running shoes are driving growth, with running and training categories showing strong performance [3] - In the first half of 2025, the revenue shares for running, basketball, training, and lifestyle products were 34%, 17%, 16%, and 29% respectively, with running and training categories each growing by 15% [3] - The company is focusing on core products like Feidian, Chitu, and Chaoying to drive sales, while also enhancing R&D for the training series [3] Channel Highlights - The company has 4,821 franchise stores and 1,278 direct-operated stores as of the first half of 2025, with plans to open Olympic gold standard and outdoor series specialty stores [3] - E-commerce revenue grew by 7% year-on-year to 4.3 billion yuan, accounting for 29% of total revenue, indicating a stable growth strategy in the e-commerce channel [3] Profit Forecast and Investment Suggestions - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 2.742 billion, 2.901 billion, and 3.302 billion yuan for 2025 to 2027, with growth rates of -9%, +5.8%, and +13.8% respectively [4] - The current market valuation corresponds to a PE ratio of 17 times for 2026, with potential for valuation improvement as the company's Olympic marketing strategy and product optimization progress [4]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, with a current price of HKD 20.90 and a fair value of HKD 22.30 [8]. Core Insights - The company's offline sales in Q4 showed a narrowing decline compared to Q3, indicating improved performance despite ongoing challenges in the retail environment [8]. - The company is focusing on enhancing efficiency and quality by increasing R&D and marketing investments while controlling other expenses to improve profitability [3][8]. - The introduction of innovative retail formats, such as "Dragon Stores" and outdoor stores, aims to expand the target consumer base [3]. Financial Summary - The company's projected revenue for 2023 is CNY 27.598 billion, with a growth rate of 7.0%. This is expected to increase to CNY 33.331 billion by 2027, with a CAGR of approximately 7.7% [4]. - EBITDA is forecasted to decrease from CNY 5.814 billion in 2023 to CNY 5.205 billion in 2025, before rising to CNY 7.262 billion by 2027 [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to decline from CNY 3.187 billion in 2023 to CNY 2.606 billion in 2025, before recovering to CNY 3.131 billion in 2027 [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to decrease from CNY 1.21 in 2023 to CNY 1.01 in 2025, with a slight recovery to CNY 1.21 by 2027 [4]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to decline from 13.1% in 2023 to 9.5% in 2025, before gradually improving to 10.3% by 2027 [4]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is expected to leverage the upcoming Los Angeles Olympic cycle to enhance brand visibility and performance [8]. - The introduction of the "Honor Gold Standard" product line targets consumers with commuting, business travel, and light sports needs, indicating a strategic shift towards meeting diverse consumer demands [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Li Ning [6] Core Insights - The signing of the Chinese Olympic Committee in the first half of 2025 marks the beginning of a new product and marketing cycle for Li Ning, with expectations for improved performance and stock price recovery in the medium to long term [1][14] - The company has faced pressure on its fundamentals due to fluctuations in the consumer environment, with a reported revenue of 14.8 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.7 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year change of +3.3% and -11% respectively [1][15] - The sportswear market is expected to grow, with the Chinese sports apparel market projected to reach 260.2 billion yuan by 2024, and a CAGR of 9% from 2025 to 2029 [2] Company Overview - Li Ning's short-term operations are experiencing fluctuations, but the fundamentals are expected to improve. The company has seen a decline in revenue and net profit since 2022, with a forecasted revenue of 28.7 billion yuan and a net profit of 3 billion yuan for 2024 [15] - The revenue structure is primarily wholesale, with 46% from wholesale, 23% from direct sales, and 29% from e-commerce as of the first half of 2025 [15] Industry Trends - The demand for sports footwear and apparel among residents is resilient, with increasing participation in sports leading to a diversified and professionalized market [2] - The report highlights the importance of the Olympic cycle in enhancing brand strength and increasing sponsorship in niche categories [2] Competitive Positioning - Li Ning is focusing on product optimization and enhancing brand strength during the Olympic cycle, with a significant increase in sponsorship for running and basketball categories [3] - The company is also expanding its outdoor product offerings and enhancing the diversity of its store inventory to drive revenue growth [3] Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The forecast for net profit from 2025 to 2027 is 2.742 billion yuan, 2.901 billion yuan, and 3.302 billion yuan respectively, with growth rates of -9%, +5.8%, and +13.8% [4] - The current market capitalization corresponds to a PE ratio of 17 times for 2026, indicating potential for valuation improvement as the company's marketing strategies and product optimizations take effect [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Li Ning Company [6] Core Views - The signing of the Chinese Olympic Committee in the first half of 2025 marks the beginning of a new product and marketing cycle for Li Ning, with potential for brand strength recovery and performance improvement [1][14] - Despite short-term pressures from fluctuating consumer environments, the company is positioned for a potential upward trend in stock price if revenue or profit improves in the medium to long term [1][4] Company Overview - Li Ning's revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025 are projected at 14.8 billion and 1.7 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting a year-on-year change of +3.3% and -11% [1][15] - The company has faced challenges since 2022, with a decline in brand revenue in the third and fourth quarters of 2025 [1][15] - The current channel structure is primarily wholesale, with revenue contributions of 46% from wholesale, 23% from direct sales, and 29% from e-commerce as of the first half of 2025 [15] Industry Trends - The demand for sports footwear and apparel among residents is resilient, with a projected market size of 260.2 billion yuan by 2024 and a CAGR of 9% from 2025 to 2029 [2] - The diversification and specialization of sports participation are becoming more pronounced, with increased demand for professional products driven by rising participation in running and social sports [2] Competitive Strength - The Olympic cycle is expected to enhance Li Ning's brand power and strengthen sponsorship in niche categories [2][3] - The company is focusing on professional running shoes and outdoor products, which are anticipated to contribute to revenue growth [3][4] Product Insights - In the first half of 2025, the revenue breakdown by category is as follows: running (34%), basketball (17%), training (16%), and sports lifestyle (29%), with running and training categories showing a growth of 15% each [3][15] - Li Ning is emphasizing the development of running shoes and enhancing the technological attributes of its training series [3] Channel Insights - As of the first half of 2025, Li Ning operates 4,821 franchise stores and 1,278 direct stores, with plans to open new store types focusing on Olympic and outdoor series products [3] - E-commerce revenue grew by 7% year-on-year to 4.3 billion yuan, accounting for 29% of total revenue, indicating a stable growth strategy in this channel [3] Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The projected net profits for Li Ning from 2025 to 2027 are 2.742 billion, 2.901 billion, and 3.302 billion yuan, with growth rates of -9%, +5.8%, and +13.8%, respectively [4][5] - The current market capitalization corresponds to a PE ratio of 17 times for 2026, suggesting potential for valuation improvement as the company's Olympic marketing strategy and product optimization continue [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Li Ning is experiencing a decline in retail sales and is actively expanding its product offerings and retail channels to enhance brand presence and sales performance [1][2][3] Group 2 - As of December 31, 2025, Li Ning's retail sales (excluding Li Ning YOUNG) recorded a low single-digit decline year-on-year, with offline channels experiencing a medium single-digit decline [1] - The number of Li Ning sales points in China (excluding Li Ning YOUNG) totaled 6,091, a net decrease of 41 from the previous quarter, with retail business seeing a net decrease of 59 and wholesale business a net increase of 33 [1] - Li Ning YOUNG sales points increased by 38 to a total of 1,518 as of December 31, 2025 [1] Group 3 - Li Ning opened its first "Dragon Store" in Beijing, launching the new "Honor Gold Standard" product series, which is expected to create a strong synergy for brand development and retail channel upgrades [2] - The new outdoor store "COUNTERFLOW" aims to connect urban life with nature, showcasing a blend of rugged and urban aesthetics [2] Group 4 - Li Ning announced a partnership with Taobao Flash Sale to enhance instant retail experiences, marking a significant step in expanding its multi-channel strategy [3] - The company has raised its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting revenues of 29.1 billion RMB, 30 billion RMB, and 31.1 billion RMB, with net profits of 2.66 billion RMB, 2.74 billion RMB, and 2.94 billion RMB respectively [3]

Core Viewpoint - The 2026 Autumn/Winter collection of "China Li Ning" debuted in Milan under the theme "THE ATHLETE IN ALL OF US," showcasing the brand's commitment to professional sports and its deep-rooted connection to winter sports [1][3]. Group 1: Collection Inspiration and Design - The collection draws inspiration from the athlete spirit embedded in the brand, reflecting on the past and future of winter sports, and combines elements from professional snowboarding and ice hockey with modern interpretations of retro sports aesthetics [3][4]. - The design narrative integrates the Olympic achievements of Li Ning, creating a new visual symbol system that reinterprets vintage sports silhouettes while honoring the spirit of Chinese sports [4][19]. - The collection emphasizes a universal athletic spirit that transcends competition, celebrating resilience and self-improvement through an immersive fashion show experience [3][19]. Group 2: Product Highlights - The footwear line features diverse designs, including the "Youxia 2.0," inspired by outdoor trends, and the "Liejun ACE 3.0," which has become a highlight in international fashion weeks due to its retro structure [7][10]. - New shoe models like "Wudao 3.0 MID" and "Wudao FUTURE" incorporate advanced technologies such as 3D printing, while color palettes pay homage to significant moments in Chinese sports history [7][10][12]. - The women's footwear collection introduces models like "Linglong RACER," blending racing inspiration with elegant retro aesthetics, and "Tied Ground Flying ACE," which draws from classic badminton shoes [10][12]. Group 3: Show Experience and Cultural Significance - The fashion show created an immersive experience reminiscent of classic winter sports venues, transitioning from nostalgic elements to a vast, snow-inspired landscape, enhancing audience anticipation [15][17]. - The event featured 68 outfits, starting with the "Li Ning Honor Gold Standard" series, and concluded with a celebratory moment involving Li Ning, actor Jackie Chan, and Olympic champion Ma Long, emphasizing the cultural significance of sports [17][19]. - The overarching narrative of the show honors top athletes and the enduring human spirit behind sports culture, aiming to ignite the athlete spirit within everyone and promote the values of perseverance and achievement [19].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and it is maintained [8]. Core Insights - The company reported a decline in overall channel revenue for Q4 2025, with a decrease in low single-digit sales in offline channels and a flat performance in e-commerce channels [2][6]. - The company is expected to experience a steady recovery by 2026, driven by the introduction of new running shoe technologies and the expansion of its product offerings in outdoor and honor-related categories [9]. - The forecasted net profit for the company is projected to be 2.71 billion, 2.85 billion, and 3.06 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding year-on-year changes of -10%, +5%, and +7% [9][11]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The current stock price is HKD 20.40 as of January 16, 2026 [8]. Financial Projections - Revenue for 2025 is estimated at 28.96 billion, with a growth rate of 1% compared to the previous year [11]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 1.05, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 17.70 [11]. Market Performance - The company is expected to face challenges in retail performance in the short term, but is anticipated to benefit from brand momentum and product innovation in the long term [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a Neutral rating for Li Ning (2331 HK) with a target price adjusted to HKD 19.50, indicating a potential downside of 0.3% from the closing price of HKD 19.55 [2][5][8]. Core Insights - The fourth quarter saw a narrowing decline in retail sales, but recovery momentum remains uncertain. The overall operations are still in a bottoming phase, with management indicating that the previously provided guidance for slight revenue growth and high single-digit net profit margin for 2025 is expected to be achieved [3][8]. - The company is benefiting from effective cost control and government subsidies, which support the maintenance of profit forecasts for 2025-2027. The upcoming sports events in 2026 are expected to enhance brand marketing and market attention, potentially increasing long-term brand value [8]. - Offline channels continue to face pressure, with discount levels deepening to around 60%, reflecting competitive industry dynamics. The e-commerce channel's growth has weakened compared to previous quarters [8]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for Li Ning are as follows: - 2023: RMB 27,598 million - 2024: RMB 28,676 million (7.0% YoY growth) - 2025E: RMB 28,929 million (3.9% YoY growth) - 2026E: RMB 30,286 million (0.9% YoY growth) - 2027E: RMB 31,206 million (4.7% YoY growth) [4][10]. - Net profit estimates are: - 2023: RMB 3,187 million - 2024: RMB 3,013 million - 2025E: RMB 2,664 million - 2026E: RMB 3,007 million - 2027E: RMB 3,370 million [4][19]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be: - 2023: RMB 1.23 - 2024: RMB 1.17 - 2025E: RMB 1.03 - 2026E: RMB 1.17 - 2027E: RMB 1.31 [4][21]. Market Position and Strategy - As of the end of Q4 2025, the inventory turnover ratio has returned to a healthy level of 4-5 months, achieving the company's target. The total number of Li Ning stores (excluding Li Ning YOUNG) decreased by 41 to 6,091 [8]. - The company is actively optimizing its store network, with the first "Dragon Store" model launched in December [8].

Group 1 - Company Li Ning (02331.HK) has seen a stock price increase of over 4%, currently trading at 21.18 HKD, reflecting a rise of 3.82% [1] - The trading volume for Li Ning has reached 338 million HKD [1]

Core Viewpoint - Li Ning's stock has seen an increase of over 4%, currently trading at 21.18 HKD with a transaction volume of 338 million HKD, despite a slight decline in retail sales for Q4 2025 [1] Group 1: Sales Performance - Li Ning reported a low single-digit decline in retail sales for Q4 2025, excluding Li Ning YOUNG, indicating a year-on-year decrease [1] - Guosen Securities noted that the decline in Li Ning's bulk sales for Q4 was less severe compared to Q3, primarily due to a reduction in the decline of offline channels [1] - The inventory turnover ratio improved to 4-5 months, reflecting better inventory management [1] Group 2: Revenue and Profitability Outlook - Morgan Stanley forecasts moderate revenue growth for Li Ning in 2025, with net profit margins expected to stabilize at a high single-digit level, suggesting an upward adjustment in market consensus for last year's net profit [1] - According to浦银国际, strong market sentiment could lead to significant upward momentum in Li Ning's stock price if there is a clear trend of brand recovery and improvement in sales [1]