大摩认为，市场对李宁去年的盈利预测将上调至该行预测的水平，即27.5亿元人民币。意味着去年下半 年净利率可能同比提升。虽然广告与推广支出增加且折扣幅度加大，但李宁去年营业利润率同比持平， 表明营运效率有所提升。考虑到主要股东于去年增持股票，大摩认为市场对李宁业绩转势的预期将会上 升。 摩根士丹利发布研报称，基本情境下，基于对去年李宁(02331)每股盈利预测的17倍市盈率为目标，目 标价25港元。预期李宁2025至2027年销售额复合年均增长率为6%，盈利复合年均增长率为7%;评级增 持。 李宁预期去年营收将实现温和增长(相对先前指引为持平)，净利率预计稳定在高单位数的高位，意味市 场对其去年净利润的共识预期将上调。大摩指，春节购物旺季前后的寒冷天气可能会加速销售增长。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Daiwa Capital Markets indicates that Li Ning's management is confident in exceeding previous guidance for the full year, expecting moderate revenue growth and a net profit margin at the upper limit of the high single-digit percentage guidance [1] Group 1 - Li Ning's revenue growth is expected to be supported by government subsidies exceeding expectations [1] - The company has strengthened cost control measures and closed some loss-making stores, contributing to cost savings [1] - Daiwa has raised Li Ning's target price from HKD 18.5 to HKD 20.2 while maintaining a "Hold" rating [1]

李宁预期去年营收将实现温和增长(相对先前指引为持平)，净利率预计稳定在高单位数的高位，意味市 场对其去年净利润的共识预期将上调。大摩指，春节购物旺季前后的寒冷天气可能会加速销售增长。 大摩认为，市场对李宁去年的盈利预测将上调至该行预测的水平，即27.5亿元人民币。意味着去年下半 年净利率可能同比提升。虽然广告与推广支出增加且折扣幅度加大，但李宁去年营业利润率同比持平， 表明营运效率有所提升。考虑到主要股东于去年增持股票，大摩认为市场对李宁业绩转势的预期将会上 升。 智通财经APP获悉，摩根士丹利发布研报称，基本情境下，基于对去年李宁(02331)每股盈利预测的17倍 市盈率为目标，目标价25港元。预期李宁2025至2027年销售额复合年均增长率为6%，盈利复合年均增 长率为7%; 评级增持。 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of HKD 22.76 [1][10]. Core Insights - The company reported a slight year-on-year decline in overall retail sales for Q4 2025, but the decline has narrowed compared to previous months. The sales performance in October was boosted by the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival, while November and December saw a weakening due to the consumer environment and warm winter [6][10]. - Management is confident in achieving revenue and profit margin guidance for 2025, expecting revenue to remain flat and profit margins to increase in the high single digits. The upcoming Olympic year in 2026 is anticipated to drive marketing investments and resource allocation, potentially leading to a turning point in sales [6][10]. - The company is actively managing inventory and risks in a complex retail environment, with a healthy inventory-to-sales ratio returning to a range of 4-5 months [9][10]. Financial Performance - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2024: RMB 28,676 million - 2025E: RMB 28,946 million (up 0.94%) - 2026E: RMB 30,023 million (up 3.72%) - 2027E: RMB 31,825 million (up 6.00%) [5][10]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be: - 2024: RMB 3,013 million - 2025E: RMB 2,696 million (down 10.52%) - 2026E: RMB 2,769 million (up 2.73%) - 2027E: RMB 3,171 million (up 14.50%) [5][10]. - The company’s EPS (Earnings Per Share) is expected to be: - 2024: RMB 1.17 - 2025E: RMB 1.04 - 2026E: RMB 1.07 - 2027E: RMB 1.23 [5][10]. Channel Performance - In Q4 2025, offline channels (including retail and wholesale) saw a year-on-year decline in sales, while online sales remained flat. The direct sales channel performed better than wholesale, largely due to contributions from outlet stores [7][10]. - The company continues to expand its store network, with a total of 6,091 stores (excluding Li Ning YOUNG) as of Q4 2025, and plans to open more specialty stores in various categories [8][10]. Discount and Inventory Management - Overall discounts in Q4 2025 deepened slightly year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, with offline discounts averaging around 65% due to increased clearance efforts for winter apparel amid warm weather [9][10]. - The company has effectively managed inventory levels, with the inventory-to-sales ratio returning to a healthy range, indicating good inventory management practices [9][10].

花旗发表研报指，李宁管理层预计2025年销售额将实现按年低单位数增长，主要因非李宁专卖店的羽毛 球产品销售胜预期；又预期2025年净利润率将达到其高单位数指引的高端(花旗认为超过9%)，原因是政 府补助等其他收入高于预期，及营运支出低于预期。基于2026年预测18倍市盈率，该行将其目标价从 20.6港元上调至22港元，维持"买入"评级。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that Li Ning (02331.HK) experienced a significant price increase, rising over 5% to reach a new high of 20.62 HKD, marking a reversal trend since early December last year [1] - The stock has shown a remarkable increase of over 20% in its price since the reversal began [1] - The current total market capitalization of Li Ning stands at 52.8 billion HKD [1]

中金指，考虑到公司2025年良好的费用控制以及2026年持续的投入，上调2025/2026年每股盈利预测 14%、3%至1.05、1.1元，并引入2027年每股盈利预测1.19元，上调目标价3%至24.4港元，维持"跑赢行 业"评级。 中金发表报告指，李宁管理层表示，在羽毛球等新品类的帮助下，2025年收入有望获得小幅增长，同时 由于费用控制良好等因素，净利润率有望落在高单位数指引上沿。2026年是重要赛事较密集的一年，公 司将围绕奥运和运动科技主线叠代新产品和新店型，亦将积极开展配套营销活动。该行看好奥运周期下 公司品牌力的提升，以及新货盘有望为公司提供新的增长来源。 ...

李宁(02331.HK)盘初拉升涨超5%，高见20.62港元刷新阶段新高，从去年12月初以来走出反转行情，区间涨幅超20%，目前总市值528亿港元。 消息上，李宁获多家机构集体唱好。花旗发表研报指，去年末季，李宁旗下李宁品牌的零售销售按年录得低单位数下跌，符合该行预期。得益于其羽毛球品 类业务在去年下半年的销售表现持续强劲，花旗预计集团全年销售额仍将实现低单位数增长。予李宁目标价20.6港元，评级"买入"；大摩料市场对李宁业绩 转势预期升温，评级"增持"；海通国际看好李宁对中长期品牌力和消费者心智的建设，目标价升至22.3港元；大和相信李宁的复苏势头正在推进，重申"买 入"评级。 ...

大和发表研报指，重申李宁"买入"评级及目标价24港元，相信李宁的复苏势头正在推进，并重申其作为 中国运动服饰品牌的首选标的。在分析师电话会议中，李宁管理层指2025年营收可能略超先前按年持平 之指引，而净利润率将达到强劲的高单位数(接近10%)。这些说法大致符合大和预测，应促使市场共识 对预测进行小幅上调。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Li Ning [5] Core Insights - Li Ning's Q4 2025 revenue met expectations, with a slight year-on-year decline in overall revenue. Offline channel revenue decreased in the low single digits, while e-commerce revenue remained flat [1] - The children's clothing segment, Li Ning YOUNG, is expected to continue its steady growth, with 1,518 stores by the end of Q4 2025, reflecting a net increase of 50 stores since the beginning of the year. The inventory turnover ratio is projected to be between 4 and 5, indicating a healthy level [2] - For 2025, the company is expected to report a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.742 billion yuan, a 9% year-on-year decline. Revenue is anticipated to show slight growth [2] - In 2026, the company plans to enhance its marketing efforts and test new store formats, projecting a revenue growth of 6.5% and a net profit increase of 5.8% to 2.901 billion yuan [3] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2025 is estimated at 29.269 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 2.1%. The net profit for 2025 is projected at 2.742 billion yuan, reflecting a decline of 9% [4] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is expected to be 1.06 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 16.6 times [4] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 10.0% in 2025, with a gradual increase to 10.6% by 2027 [4]