Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - Increased marketing investment is expected to gradually catalyze performance growth through sports resources [5] - The company has become a partner of the Chinese Olympic Committee, which is anticipated to enhance its product matrix and brand image [7] - The signing of player Yang Hanshen, who was selected in the first round of the NBA draft, is expected to boost the popularity of the company's basketball-related products [7] - The company is focusing on a "single brand, multiple categories, and multiple channels" development strategy, which is expected to drive long-term growth [7] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 27,598.49 million RMB - 2024: 28,675.64 million RMB - 2025E: 29,026.63 million RMB - 2026E: 30,765.67 million RMB - 2027E: 32,844.70 million RMB - The expected growth rates for revenue are 6.96% in 2023, 3.90% in 2024, 1.22% in 2025, 5.99% in 2026, and 6.76% in 2027 [6] - Projected net profit attributable to the parent company is as follows: - 2023: 3,186.91 million RMB - 2024: 3,012.92 million RMB - 2025E: 2,644.93 million RMB - 2026E: 2,846.01 million RMB - 2027E: 3,103.86 million RMB - The expected net profit growth rates are -21.58% in 2023, -5.46% in 2024, -12.21% in 2025, 7.60% in 2026, and 9.06% in 2027 [6][8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [6]. Core Insights - The company reported low single-digit growth in retail sales compared to the same period last year, with offline channels experiencing a low single-digit decline and online channels showing a mid-single-digit increase [1]. - The company has signed a partnership with the Chinese Olympic Committee, becoming the official sportswear partner for the 2025-2028 Olympic events, which is expected to enhance brand recognition and support international expansion [2]. - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts due to consumer pressure, projecting revenues of 28.9 billion RMB, 29.6 billion RMB, and 30.7 billion RMB for 2025-2027, with net profits of 2.4 billion RMB, 2.6 billion RMB, and 2.7 billion RMB respectively [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Retail sales (excluding Li Ning YOUNG) recorded low single-digit growth year-on-year, with offline channels declining and online channels increasing [1]. - As of June 30, 2025, the total number of sales points in China was 6,099, a net increase of 11 from the previous quarter, but a net decrease of 18 year-to-date [1]. Marketing and Brand Strategy - The partnership with the Chinese Olympic Committee is expected to enhance the company's brand image and leverage its association with major international sporting events [2]. - The company has also signed contracts with emerging CBA stars, including Yang Hanshen, who was selected in the NBA draft, which may help in establishing a stronger presence in the international market [2]. Profit Forecast Adjustments - The company has revised its profit forecasts downward due to anticipated consumer challenges, with expected earnings per share (EPS) of 0.93 RMB, 0.99 RMB, and 1.06 RMB for 2025-2027 [4].

Core Viewpoint - Company reported a low single-digit year-on-year growth in retail sales for Q2 2025, continuing the trend from Q1 2025 [1] Group 1: Operational Performance - For Q2 2025, retail sales (excluding Li Ning YOUNG) showed low single-digit year-on-year growth, consistent with Q1 performance [1] - Offline channel sales experienced a low single-digit year-on-year decline, with direct sales down in the mid-single digits and wholesale channel sales up in the low single digits [1] - E-commerce channel sales grew in the mid-single digits, outperforming offline retail growth [1] - The running and fitness categories continued to lead market performance, with expected high single-digit year-on-year growth in sales [1] - Basketball category remains under pressure, while sports lifestyle category sales were flat year-on-year; smaller categories like outdoor and badminton showed rapid growth [1] Group 2: Channel and Store Strategy - As of June 30, the number of sales points (excluding Li Ning YOUNG) decreased by 18 to 6099, with a net increase of 11 from Q1 [2] - Li Ning YOUNG sales points decreased by 33 to 1435, with a net decrease of 18 from Q1 [2] - Company maintains a steady store strategy focused on optimizing individual stores amid a fluctuating consumer environment [2] - The company expects to see stable store expansion throughout the year, entering a peak opening season in the second half [2] Group 3: Marketing and Future Outlook - Company plans to focus marketing efforts around themes of Yang Hansheng and the Olympics, leveraging his NBA selection for promotional activities [2] - The company has resumed its role as the official sportswear partner for the Chinese Olympic Committee and the Chinese sports delegation, with a marketing focus on "Olympics + Technology" in the second half [2] - Company forecasts revenue growth of 1.7%/5.3%/4.5% for 2025-2027, reaching 29.15/30.69/32.07 billion yuan, with net profit projections of -12.6%/+6.6%/+6.1% to 2.63/2.81/2.98 billion yuan [3] - The company maintains a "buy" rating with corresponding valuations of 15/14/13 times for the years 2025-2027 [3]

机构：中信建投证券 研究员：叶乐/黄杨璐 核心观点 零售折扣率加深，影响品牌利润率：后续如果通过增加零售折扣率处理库存，将对品牌的利润率水平造 成一定影响。 事件 公司发布2025 年二季度经营情况：25Q2 流水情况，李宁牌（不含李宁YOUNG）整体流水低单位数增 长，线下渠道（包括零售及批发）录得低单位数下降，其中直营零售渠道中单位数下降、批发渠道低单 位数增长、电商业务录得中单位数增长。 经销商涂码串货风险：串货可能导致产品在不同地区的价格不一致，破坏制造商设定的价格体系，影响 正常的市场秩序，使消费者对品牌的信任度下降。 简评 25Q2 流水低单位数增长，线下继续承压、电商增速环比放缓。25Q2李宁牌流水低单位数增长，其中4 月因天气较冷线下较弱、5 月逐步好转、6 月假期错位下表现疲软，7 月以来延续q2 流水较弱表现。分 渠道看，25Q2 线下流水低单位数下滑主要受直营影响，直营渠道流水中单位数下滑；25Q2 电商业务流 水同比中单位数增长，整体受到行业竞争和消费低迷态势影响。25Q2 批发业务整体保持流水增长低单 位数。从品类来看，预计跑步、健身相关增长较优但环比有所放缓，运动生活q2 表现平稳 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3] Core Views - The company is focusing on high-quality development in the new Olympic cycle, despite short-term revenue slowdown [1] - The company has adjusted its earnings forecasts for 2025-2026 and introduced a forecast for 2027, expecting EPS of 0.92, 1.05, and 1.20 RMB respectively [2][8] - The target price is set at 20.07 HKD, based on a 20x valuation for 2025 [2][8] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2023 is projected at 27,598 million RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 7.0% [2] - Operating profit is expected to decline to 4,256 million RMB in 2023, reflecting a decrease of 21.4% year-on-year [2] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted at 3,187 million RMB for 2023, down 21.6% year-on-year [2] - The company anticipates a net decrease of approximately 10 direct stores and an increase of around 40 franchise stores in 2025 [7] - The gross margin is expected to be 48.4% in 2023, with a slight increase to 49.1% by 2027 [2][11] - The net profit margin is projected to decline from 11.5% in 2023 to 8.2% in 2025, before recovering to 9.5% in 2027 [2][11] Market and Competitive Landscape - The retail environment is becoming increasingly competitive, with intensified discounting pressures from international brands [7] - The company is expected to increase marketing expenditures in the second half of 2025 and throughout 2026 to support sustainable growth [7] - The major shareholder has shown confidence in the company's long-term prospects by increasing their stake by approximately 1.11% [7]

Summary of Li Ning Company Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Li Ning Company - **Date**: July 16, 2025 Key Points Industry Performance - June sales showed a month-on-month decline, with both online and offline channels experiencing negative growth due to base effects, holidays, and weather conditions [2][3] - Discounts deepened in Q2, particularly in e-commerce, impacting direct wholesale channels [2][4] - Overall gross margin faced challenges in the first half of the year, making it difficult to maintain flat margins for the entire year [2][4] Product Performance - Functional products outperformed lifestyle products, with running and fitness categories achieving double-digit growth in H1 2025, while basketball and lifestyle categories performed poorly, particularly basketball sales [2][5] - The growth in H1 was primarily driven by professional categories, with footwear performing better than apparel [2][5] - Key running shoe IPs such as "Ultra Light," "Chi Tu," and "Fei Dian" met expectations, with "Fei Dian" and "Chi Tu" performing well, while "Ultra Light" showed weaker performance [2][5] Strategic Partnerships - Li Ning signed a long-term contract with Yang Hanshen in 2023, planning to quickly launch related products during key competition periods [2][6] - No signature shoe plans currently exist, but future consideration will depend on performance, alongside enhanced personal marketing efforts [2][7] Marketing and Branding - The company is focusing on Olympic-related marketing, with the "Rong Rong Yao" series as a direct product line for the Olympics [3][7] - Future product launches will include more technology-enhanced products, expanding into other functional categories and lifestyle areas [3][7] Retail and Distribution - Approximately 100 new children's clothing stores are planned for this year, primarily targeting mid-to-low tier markets [3][9] - The number of outlet stores remains stable at around 400, with no large-scale openings planned [3][9][10] - E-commerce growth was only in the mid-single digits in Q2, falling short of expectations due to the impact of the 618 shopping festival [3][12] Financial Outlook - The company maintains guidance for flat revenue and a high single-digit net profit margin for 2025, but faces significant challenges in the second half due to weak terminal trends and intense competition [3][29] - Future plans include gradually accelerating revenue growth over the next 3-5 years, aiming for a net profit margin of at least 10% [3][29] Competitive Landscape - The company acknowledges ongoing competition from international brands like Nike, which still holds the largest market share [3][17] - Domestic brands have made significant progress in operations, technology, and design, narrowing the gap with international competitors [3][17] Cost Management - Marketing expenses are expected to rise due to Olympic sponsorship and athlete endorsements, with the marketing expense ratio projected to increase from 9.5% to a low double-digit level [3][18] - Human resource costs are also anticipated to rise slightly due to team expansion and talent acquisition [3][19] Future Strategies - The company plans to optimize store locations to control rental costs and enhance same-store sales [3][21][22] - Product assortments will be adjusted based on market tier and store type to capture business opportunities effectively [3][23][24] Segment Growth Potential - The running category is projected to maintain a 30% share of overall business, with future growth opportunities balanced against risks associated with over-reliance on a single category [3][26][28] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the Li Ning Company conference call, highlighting the current performance, strategic initiatives, and future outlook within the competitive landscape of the sportswear industry.

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Li Ning with a target price of HKD 19.2 for 2025, based on a 20x PE ratio [1][4][7]. Core Insights - Li Ning's overall platform revenue (excluding Li Ning YOUNG) recorded low single-digit growth in Q2 2025, with offline channels experiencing low single-digit decline while e-commerce channels saw mid-single-digit growth [2][4]. - The growth in revenue is primarily driven by the running and fitness categories, both achieving high single-digit growth, while the basketball category faced a decline of over 20% due to market conditions [2][3]. - The company continues to optimize its channel structure, with a net decrease of 18 stores year-to-date, and plans to expand new store layouts as per strategy [3][4]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for Li Ning are as follows: 2025E at RMB 28,698 million, 2026E at RMB 30,498 million, and 2027E at RMB 31,943 million, reflecting growth rates of 0.1%, 6.3%, and 4.7% respectively [5][12]. - The forecasted EPS for 2025 is RMB 0.88, with a decline in net profit expected to RMB 2,269 million, a decrease of 24.7% compared to the previous year [5][12]. - The gross margin is projected to remain stable around 49.2% for 2025, with a slight increase to 49.5% by 2027 [5][13].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company's Q2 revenue growth is slightly slower than Q1 but meets expectations, with a small single-digit increase across all platforms [1] - The company has signed a formal agreement with the Chinese Olympic Committee, becoming the official sportswear partner for the Chinese Olympic team from 2025 to 2028, with marketing efforts expected to ramp up starting in May [3] - The company anticipates increased resource investment in professional research and sports sponsorships, aiming for long-term positioning in the sports market [4] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 28.87 billion, 30.32 billion, and 31.75 billion CNY, reflecting year-on-year growth of 0.7%, 5.0%, and 4.7% respectively [4] - The forecasted net profit for the same years is 2.36 billion, 2.81 billion, and 3.22 billion CNY, with a significant drop of 22% in 2025 followed by recoveries of 19% and 15% in the subsequent years [4] Product Performance - In Q2, the running and cross-training categories continue to lead with high single-digit growth, while the basketball category faced a 20% decline [2] - The company is expected to gradually enrich its product offerings related to basketball, especially with the promotion of the "Yushua" series shoes following Yang Hansheng's selection for the NBA [2] Marketing and Sponsorship - The company has initiated its Olympic marketing strategy with the launch of the "Glory" series products, and further marketing activities are anticipated with upcoming events like the Chengdu World Games and the Milan Winter Olympics [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company's retail revenue for Q2 2025 showed low single-digit year-on-year growth, consistent with Q1 performance. Offline channels experienced a low single-digit decline, while e-commerce channels grew at a mid-single-digit rate [2][3] - The running and fitness categories continue to outperform, with expected high single-digit growth in revenue for Q2. Basketball remains under pressure, while outdoor and badminton categories are growing rapidly [2][3] - The company is focusing on a stable store strategy, with a net decrease of 18 stores to 6099 by June 30. The company plans to maintain steady expansion in store numbers throughout the year [2][3] - Marketing efforts will focus on themes related to Yang Hansheng and the Olympics, aiming to boost sales in the basketball category and enhance brand recognition [3] Financial Summary - Projected revenue growth for 2025-2027 is 1.7%, 5.3%, and 4.5%, reaching 29.15 billion, 30.69 billion, and 32.07 billion yuan respectively. Net profit is expected to decline by 12.6% in 2025, followed by growth of 6.6% and 6.1% in the subsequent years [3][4] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 1.02, 1.09, and 1.15 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 14.65, 13.75, and 12.96 [4][12] - The company maintains a healthy inventory level despite a challenging consumption environment [3]

机构：交银国际 研究员：肖凯希/钱昊 管理层表示，2 季度的复苏趋势环比1 季度走弱，略低于公司此前预期；此外， 7 月以来公司的流水和 折扣仍然承压。整体来看，我们认为公司下半年销售恢复趋势仍将缓慢，因此，基于更加谨慎的销售预 期，我们下调2025-27 年的净利润预测，给予目标价16.28 港元，维持中性评级。我们认为公司目前估 值已充分反应了当前阶段的稳健经营策略和销售恢复前景。 2 季度线下渠道仍然疲软，库存健康但折扣压力加大：分渠道来看，2 季度线上渠道的流水表现优于线 下渠道，电商渠道录得同比中单位数的增长，而线下渠道录得低单位数的同比下降。相对来说，批发渠 道的流水表现好于零售渠道，线下批发/零售渠道分别录得同比低单位数增长/中单位数下跌。公司表 示，2 季度末库销比恢复到了4 个月的水平，相对健康；但全渠道折扣同比低单位数加深，我们相信持 续的行业促销将给公司的毛利率带来压力，因此我们预期2025 年的毛利率将同比小幅下降。 基于更谨慎的销售假设，我们下调了公司2025-27 年的盈利预测，维持中性评级：2 季度以来，我们看 到行业整体复苏偏软、促销氛围浓厚（如618 活动）。因此，我们认为公 ...