Core Insights - The competitive landscape of the sports market during the Double Eleven shopping festival is intensifying, with major brands offering significant discounts to attract consumers [1][5][14] Discount Strategies - Nike leads with a slogan "Not just 50% off," offering shoes at prices as low as 200+ yuan, creating a comprehensive discount strategy across all channels [1] - Adidas focuses on popular items with a "starting from 50% off" strategy, along with additional coupons for larger purchases [1] - Anta and Li Ning both offer discounts of up to 60% on top of existing prices, with Li Ning also providing additional coupons on platforms like JD [1] - Overall, Li Ning appears to have the largest discount offerings among the brands [4][5] Price Comparisons - Nike's flagship Vaporfly 4 shoes are priced at approximately 1409 yuan after discounts, with a discount rate of about 8.3% on Taobao [3] - Adidas Adios Pro4 shows weaker discount rates, with Taobao at about 9.1% and JD at 9.3% [3] - Anta's C202 6Pro has varying prices across platforms, with JD offering the best discount at 1359 yuan [4] - Li Ning's Feidian 5 Elite shows a significant discount, with a final price of 999 yuan on Taobao and JD, resulting in a discount rate of about 6.9% [4] Sales Performance - The leading sports brands are facing challenges in growth, with Li Ning reporting a decline in retail sales and Nike's revenue in Greater China dropping by 10% [7][9] - Anta shows slight positive growth, but overall, the market is under pressure [7][9] - Adidas reported a 10% increase in revenue for the third quarter, but still faces growth challenges compared to previous periods [9] Market Dynamics - Frequent discounts are impacting the profitability of these brands, with Anta's gross margin declining by 0.7 percentage points [12] - The rise of domestic brands is eroding the pricing power of established players like Nike [13] - The ongoing price war among these brands may extend beyond the Double Eleven period, indicating a shift in market dynamics [14]

Group 1 - The Li Ning brand showcased its presence at the Tmall Double 11 Super Launch event in Shanghai, coinciding with the 100-day countdown to the 2026 Milan Winter Olympics, emphasizing the Olympic spirit and culture [1] - Tmall's mascot "Mao Tiantian" wore a replica of Li Ning's 1992 award ceremony outfit and interacted with the official mascots of the 2026 Milan Winter Olympics, Tina and Milo, highlighting the collaboration between the brand and the Olympic event [3] - Li Ning officially launched the "Gold Standard" product line, which integrates top-tier sports technology with minimalist design, aimed at promoting high-quality living across various scenarios, serving as a key vehicle for conveying sports spirit [3] Group 2 - The "Gold Standard" fashion show was themed "Heart Fire, Glory," featuring the Chinese sports delegation's award equipment for the 2026 Milan Winter Olympics as a highlight of the event [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company is facing pressure on overall revenue due to warmer weather, leading to a year-on-year decline in total channel revenue in the mid-single digits for Q3 2025, while maintaining a focus on marketing investments for the Olympics and product innovation [1][3]. Revenue Performance - In Q3 2025, total channel revenue decreased in the mid-single digits year-on-year, with a month-on-month weakening trend observed from July to September [1]. - Breakdown of revenue by channel shows offline channels experiencing a high single-digit decline, with wholesale channels down significantly and direct sales channels down in the mid-single digits; online channels, however, saw a high single-digit growth [1]. Discount and Inventory Management - Discounts have deepened across channels, with overall channel discounts increasing in the low single digits year-on-year; the wholesale channel saw a slight increase, while direct sales and e-commerce channels experienced a more significant increase [2]. - Inventory levels are manageable, with a healthy inventory-to-sales ratio maintained at 5-6 months; it is expected to be controlled at 4-5 months by year-end [2]. Store Expansion - The number of main brand stores increased to 6,132 by the end of Q3 2025, with a net addition of 33 stores from the previous quarter and 15 stores from the previous year; direct stores decreased by 46 from the previous year, while wholesale stores increased by 61 [2]. Product Innovation - The company is actively promoting new products, including the launch of the superbeng capsule for key products like the Feidian 6 and Chitu 9, as well as new basketball and outdoor products [2]. Marketing Initiatives - The company is enhancing its marketing efforts, including the launch of the 2026 Milan Winter Olympics gear for the Chinese sports delegation and collaborations for skiing events [3]. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendation - The company aims to maintain revenue stability through 2025, with projected revenues of 28.74 billion, 30.29 billion, and 31.87 billion yuan for 2025-2027, reflecting growth rates of 0%, 5%, and 5% respectively; net profits are projected at 2.4 billion, 2.71 billion, and 2.96 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of -21%, 13%, and 9% [3]. - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 17X for 2025 and 15X for 2026, with a strong buy recommendation maintained [3].

Core Viewpoint - Li Ning brand showcased its latest offerings at the Tmall Double 11 Super Release event, emphasizing its partnership with the Chinese Olympic Committee and the International Olympic Committee to promote Olympic spirit and culture ahead of the 2026 Milan Winter Olympics [1][8] Group 1: Event Highlights - The event featured a special "Milan Shining" segment, celebrating the countdown to the 2026 Milan Winter Olympics with appearances from Tmall's mascot and the official mascots of the Olympics [1] - Li Ning's new "Gold Standard" series was launched, focusing on high-quality, multi-scenario lifestyle products under the theme "Ignite the Heart, Honor" [3][10] Group 2: Product Design and Technology - The design of the award-winning gear for the Chinese sports delegation at the 2026 Milan Winter Olympics incorporates traditional Chinese patterns, specifically the "Double Victory Pattern," symbolizing various forms of victory [5] - The gear features advanced aerospace technology for temperature control, moisture permeability, and protection, showcasing China's capabilities in sports technology [6][8] Group 3: Strategic Partnerships and Cultural Promotion - Li Ning, as an official partner of the Chinese Olympic Committee, is leveraging its resources and platform to promote winter sports and Olympic culture [8][12] - The brand's initiatives include reviving classic designs, such as the 1992 award outfit, and launching the "Gold Standard" product line to express its commitment to supporting Chinese sports [12]

Core Viewpoint - Li Ning brand showcased its latest offerings at the Tmall Double 11 Super Release event, emphasizing its partnership with the Chinese Olympic Committee and the International Olympic Committee to promote Olympic spirit and culture [1][6]. Group 1: Event Highlights - The event featured a special segment called "Milan Shining," celebrating the countdown to the 2026 Milan Winter Olympics, with notable appearances from Li Ning and the Chinese Olympic Committee [1]. - Tmall's mascot "Mao Tiantian" appeared in a replica of the 1992 award ceremony outfit, interacting with the mascots of the 2026 Milan Winter Olympics, Tina and Milo, showcasing a cultural dialogue [1]. Group 2: Product Launch - Li Ning introduced its new "Gold Standard" series, focusing on multi-scenario, high-quality living, under the theme "Heart Fire, Glory," encouraging individuals to ignite their passion [3][8]. - The "Gold Standard" series aims to serve as a key vehicle for conveying the spirit of sports, integrating top-tier footwear and apparel technology with minimalist design [8]. Group 3: Design and Technology - The design of the 2026 Milan Winter Olympics Chinese sports delegation's award outfits incorporates traditional Chinese patterns, specifically the "Double Victory Pattern," symbolizing various victories and further innovated into the "Double Victory Snowflake Pattern" [5]. - The color scheme features "Chinese Red" and "Snow Mountain White," utilizing advanced aerospace technology for thermal insulation, moisture permeability, and waterproofing, ensuring comprehensive protection for athletes [5]. Group 4: Strategic Partnerships - The Director of the Sports Equipment Center of the General Administration of Sport of China highlighted the collaboration between local enterprises like Li Ning and Alibaba in promoting ice and snow sports and Olympic culture [6]. - Li Ning's long-standing support for the Chinese Olympic team is evident through its initiatives, including the revival of the 1992 award outfit and the launch of the "Gold Standard" series, reinforcing its commitment to Chinese sports [9].

Core Insights - Li Ning showcased its brand at the Tmall Double 11 Super Release event, emphasizing its role as an official partner of the Chinese Olympic Committee and its collaboration with Tmall to promote Olympic spirit and culture [1][6] - The event featured the debut of the "Gold Standard" product line, which aims to provide high-quality lifestyle choices while embodying the spirit of Chinese sports [5] Group 1: Event Highlights - The event included a special segment titled "Milan Shining," celebrating the countdown to the 2026 Milan Winter Olympics, with Li Ning and Tmall collaborating to convey Olympic values [1] - Tmall's mascot "Mao Tiantian" appeared in a replica of the 1992 award ceremony outfit, interacting with the mascots of the 2026 Milan Winter Olympics, showcasing a cultural dialogue [1] Group 2: Product Launch and Design - Li Ning's design for the 2026 Milan Winter Olympics Chinese sports delegation's award outfits incorporates traditional Chinese patterns, specifically the "Double Victory Pattern," and features innovative elements like the "Double Victory Snowflake Pattern" [2] - The design utilizes advanced aerospace technology for performance enhancements, focusing on temperature retention, moisture permeability, and protection, showcasing China's technological capabilities in sports [2][4] Group 3: Strategic Partnerships and Contributions - The Director of the Sports Equipment Center of the General Administration of Sport of China highlighted the importance of local companies like Li Ning and Alibaba in promoting winter sports and Olympic culture [4] - Li Ning's ongoing commitment to supporting Chinese sports is evident through its partnerships and product innovations, reinforcing its position as a key player in the sports apparel industry [6]

Core Insights - Li Ning brand showcased at the Tmall Double 11 Super Release event, marking 100 days countdown to the 2026 Milan Winter Olympics, emphasizing Olympic spirit and culture [1] - The event featured the debut of the "Gold Standard" series, promoting high-quality lifestyle products and encouraging personal achievement [1][5] - Li Ning's design for the Chinese sports delegation's award outfits incorporates traditional Chinese patterns and advanced sports technology [2][4] Group 1 - Li Ning, as the official sportswear partner for the Chinese Olympic Committee, integrates traditional Chinese motifs in the design of the 2026 Milan Winter Olympics award outfits [2] - The award outfit design features "Double Victory" patterns and innovative "Double Victory Snowflake" designs, utilizing cutting-edge materials for performance [2] - The color scheme of the outfits combines "Chinese Red" and "Snow Mountain White," showcasing a blend of cultural aesthetics and modern technology [2] Group 2 - The "Gold Standard" series aims to embody the spirit of Chinese sports and provide consumers with versatile, high-quality lifestyle options [5] - Li Ning has consistently supported the Chinese sports community since its inception, collaborating with Alibaba and Tmall to promote Olympic culture [6] - The brand's initiatives, including the revival of the 1992 award outfit and the launch of the "Gold Standard" series, reflect its commitment to advancing winter sports and Olympic values [6]

Core Viewpoint - The overall terminal demand remains challenging, with a decline in revenue for Li Ning in Q3 2025, but it aligns with expectations [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - Q3 2025 total revenue (excluding children's wear) decreased by mid-single digits year-on-year, with a month-on-month weakening trend [1] - Direct store revenue fell by mid-single digits, while distributor store revenue dropped by high single digits; however, e-commerce revenue increased by high single digits [1] - The discount rate in Q3 2025 deepened by low single digits year-on-year, with a widening trend compared to the previous quarter [1] - The inventory-to-sales ratio at the end of Q3 2025 rose to 5-6 months, influenced by preparations for the dual festivals [1] - Management expressed confidence in controlling the inventory-to-sales ratio to 4-5 months by year-end [1] Group 2: Management Guidance - Management maintained the full-year performance guidance for 2025, targeting flat revenue year-on-year and a high single-digit net profit margin [2] - Despite the challenging retail environment and increasing discounts, the company aims to balance sales revenue, channel inventory, and discounts to ensure healthy inventory levels [2] - If Q4 2025 revenue trends align with Q3 2025 (mid-single digit decline), and children's wear and professional channels maintain strong growth, Li Ning can still achieve its revenue target for 2025 [2] Group 3: Brand Strategy - Li Ning has focused on enhancing brand strength, recently sponsoring the Chinese Olympic Committee for three years [3] - The company launched the Milan Winter Olympics award outfits, receiving positive feedback and increasing brand exposure [3] - Upcoming marketing activities include participation in "Tmall Super Product Day" and events related to the Milan Fashion Week, emphasizing "Olympics + Technology" [3] - The company is committed to brand revitalization and product development, which is expected to support future performance improvements [4] Group 4: Adjustments and Ratings - The company has slightly adjusted its revenue and gross margin forecasts for the second half of 2025 but maintained expense predictions [4] - The updated 2025 performance forecast aligns with the company's full-year guidance [4] - Despite short-term uncertainties, the company is on the right strategic path, leading to a maintained "Buy" rating and a slight target price adjustment to HKD 21.6, equivalent to 18x 2026 P/E [4]

Core Insights - The company reported a decline in retail sales for the Li Ning brand (excluding Li Ning YOUNG) in Q3 2025, with offline channels experiencing significant drops due to external factors, while online channels maintained high single-digit growth [1] - The company is actively expanding its offline presence, with a net increase of 33 stores in Q3 2025, totaling 6,132 stores for the Li Ning brand [1] - The signing of player Yang Hansheng, who was selected in the first round of the NBA draft, is expected to boost sales of related products and improve the overall market for basketball in China [2] - The company maintains a strong position in the sports apparel sector, focusing on a "single brand, multiple categories, and multiple channels" strategy, with projected net profits of 2.645 billion, 2.843 billion, and 3.101 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [2] Summary by Category Sales Performance - In Q3 2025, the Li Ning brand's retail sales saw a mid-single-digit decline, with offline channels (including retail and wholesale) experiencing high single-digit declines, while online retail sales recorded high single-digit growth [1] Store Expansion - As of September 30, 2025, the Li Ning brand had 6,132 offline stores, with a net increase of 33 stores from the previous quarter, and a total of 1,480 stores for Li Ning YOUNG, reflecting a proactive approach to offline channel expansion [1] Strategic Developments - The recent signing of Yang Hansheng, who was drafted into the NBA, is anticipated to enhance brand visibility and sales of basketball-related products, potentially improving the overall market for basketball in China [2] Financial Outlook - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 2.645 billion yuan in 2025, 2.843 billion yuan in 2026, and 3.101 billion yuan in 2027, supported by its strong brand position and ongoing investment in product development [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong buy rating for Li Ning (02331.HK) with a target price not specified [2][5] Core Views - In Q3 2025, the company's overall revenue faced pressure due to warmer weather, resulting in a year-on-year decline in total revenue in the mid-single digits. Despite deeper discounts, inventory remains controllable, and the company will continue to optimize channel structure while investing in Olympic marketing and product innovation. Management maintains guidance for flat revenue and high single-digit net profit margin for 2025 [1][5] - The projected net profit for 2025-2027 is estimated at 2.4 billion, 2.71 billion, and 2.96 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of -21%, 13%, and 9% respectively. The current stock price corresponds to a PE of 17X for 2025 and 15X for 2026 [1][5] Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - In Q3 2025, total revenue declined in the mid-single digits year-on-year, with a weakening trend observed month by month from July to September. Offline channels saw a high single-digit decline, while online channels experienced high single-digit growth [5][6] - The overall discount level increased in Q3 2025, with inventory levels remaining healthy and controllable, expected to be within 4-5 months by year-end [5][6] Store Expansion and Product Innovation - The number of main brand stores increased to 6,132 by the end of Q3 2025, with a net addition of 33 stores compared to the previous quarter. The company continues to push for product innovation, with new launches planned in running, basketball, and outdoor categories [5][6] Marketing and Brand Strategy - The company is actively promoting its brand through Olympic marketing initiatives, including the release of the 2026 Milan Winter Olympics Chinese sports delegation award equipment and collaborations in skiing events [5][6] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 28.74 billion, 30.29 billion, and 31.87 billion yuan, with growth rates of 0%, 5%, and 5% respectively. Net profit projections are 2.4 billion, 2.71 billion, and 2.96 billion yuan, with growth rates of -21%, 13%, and 9% respectively [6][9]