Core Viewpoint - Li Ning has reported a slight decline in retail sales for Q4 2025, indicating operational pressure, yet market sentiment remains positive with several brokerages raising their forecasts for the company [1][2]. Group 1: Company Performance - As of December 31, 2025, Li Ning's retail sales (excluding Li Ning YOUNG) experienced a low single-digit decline year-on-year [1]. - Offline channels, including retail and wholesale, saw a mid-single-digit decline, while e-commerce sales remained flat [1]. - For the first half of 2025, Li Ning's revenue reached 14.817 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.3%, but net profit fell by approximately 11% to 1.737 billion yuan [3]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Forecasts - Following the operational update, Li Ning's stock price rose over 5%, reflecting positive market sentiment [1]. - Morgan Stanley forecasts moderate revenue growth for Li Ning in 2025, with net profit margins expected to stabilize at a high single-digit level [1]. - Analysts from浦银国际 suggest that if Li Ning's brand strength improves and sales trends show clear signs of recovery, the stock price could see significant upward momentum [2]. Group 3: Industry Context - The Chinese sports footwear and apparel market is characterized by intense competition, with major brands like Nike and Adidas facing challenges despite their focus on the region [2]. - Domestic brands such as Anta and 361° are maintaining growth, but increased discounting is eroding profit margins across the industry [2]. - Anta's gross margin declined by 0.7 percentage points to 63.4% in the first half of 2025, highlighting the competitive pressures in the market [2]. Group 4: Strategic Initiatives - Li Ning has partnered with the Chinese Olympic Committee, launching new products and stores aimed at capturing the mid-to-high-end market segment [4][6]. - The company is also focusing on outdoor retail spaces to penetrate niche markets, indicating a strategy to attract new customer segments [6]. - With the upcoming 2026 Milan Winter Olympics, Li Ning anticipates increased brand exposure and potential sales growth during this period [8].

Core Viewpoint - The management of Li Ning (02331) is confident in exceeding previous guidance for the full year, expecting moderate revenue growth and a net profit margin at the upper limit of the high single-digit percentage guidance [1] Group 1 - The expected revenue growth is driven by government subsidies exceeding expectations, improved cost control by the company, and cost savings from closing underperforming stores [1] - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for Li Ning [1]

智通财经APP获悉，大华继显发布研报称，对于去年全年，李宁(02331)管理层有信心超越此前指引，收 入预期可实现温和增长，净利润率料将达到高单位数百分比指引的上限。大华继显相信是受到政府补贴 胜预期、公司加强费用管控，以及期内关闭了部分亏损店铺带来成本节省等所推动，并维持李宁"持 有"评级。 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company reported a narrowing decline in Q4 revenue, with expectations for profit margins in 2025 to exceed forecasts [1] - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027, increasing them to 2.68 billion, 2.86 billion, and 3.05 billion RMB respectively, corresponding to P/E ratios of 17, 16, and 15 [1] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 27.6 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 6.96% - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 is expected to be 3.19 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 21.58% - The latest diluted EPS for 2023 is estimated at 1.23 RMB, with a P/E ratio of 14.43 [1][8] Operational Insights - In Q4, the company's overall retail revenue (excluding young segment) saw a low single-digit year-on-year decline, with offline and e-commerce channels experiencing middle single-digit and flat year-on-year changes respectively [1] - The company opened its first outdoor store and "Dragon Store" in November and December 2025, respectively, targeting new customer segments [1] - The company aims to improve profitability by closing loss-making stores and enhancing cost efficiency [1]

智通财经APP获悉，里昂发布研报称，李宁(02331)2025年第四季零售销售表现温和，符合预期， 2025 财年净利润率处于高单位数指引的高位，好过市场预期，但主要因关店以致成本减少以及政府补助。该 行预计下一轮估值重估需要更多证据，以显示公司的新举措能带动零售销售回升。目标价由16港元上调 至18港元，维持"持有"评级。 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company's overall revenue for Q4 experienced a low single-digit decline, with offline channels showing a moderate decrease while e-commerce remained stable [1] - The company anticipates a slight growth in total revenue for the year 2025, with strong contributions from specialized channels like badminton, which saw over 30% growth in the first three quarters [2] - The company is focusing on core professional sports and outdoor categories for growth, while also optimizing lifestyle products [2] - The sponsorship of the Chinese Olympic Committee is expected to enhance brand confidence and visibility, although translating this into sales will take time [2] Financial Summary - The projected total revenue for 2025 is estimated at 29,046 million, reflecting a 1% year-over-year growth [5] - The expected net profit for 2025 is 2,461 million, representing an 18% decline from the previous year [5] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be 0.95, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 18.46 [3][5] - The company forecasts net profits of 24.61 billion, 26.83 billion, and 28.44 billion for the fiscal years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [3]

智通财经APP获悉，大和发布研报称，李宁(02331)去年末季营运数据优于市场所忧虑情况，略超去年营 收指引; 净利润率有望接近10%，料今年业绩扭转颓势，并伴随品牌热度提升，以及新产品及门店推 出，基于2026年预测18倍市盈率，重申目标价24港元及"买入"评级。 该信息由智通财经网提供 大和指出，在分析师电话会议中，李宁管理层指2025年营收可能略超先前同比持平之指引，而净利润率 将达到"强劲的高单位数"(接近10%)。这些说法大致符合大和预测，应促使市场共识对预测进行小幅上 调。大和相信李宁的复苏势头正在推进，并重申其作为中国运动服饰品牌的首选标的。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Daiwa's report indicates that Li Ning (02331) has shown better-than-expected operational data for the last quarter of the previous year, slightly exceeding revenue guidance, with a net profit margin expected to approach 10% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Li Ning's management suggested that revenue for 2025 may slightly exceed previous guidance of flat year-on-year growth, with a strong net profit margin projected in the high single digits, nearing 10% [1] - Daiwa believes that the recovery momentum for Li Ning is progressing, reaffirming its position as a preferred stock in the Chinese sportswear sector [1] Group 2: Market Outlook - The report anticipates a turnaround in Li Ning's performance this year, supported by increased brand popularity, new product launches, and store openings [1] - Based on a forecasted 18 times price-to-earnings ratio for 2026, Daiwa maintains a target price of HKD 24 and a "Buy" rating for Li Ning [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from浦银国际 indicates that with the current strong market sentiment, if Li Ning's brand strength and sales show a clear upward trend, its stock price is expected to gain significant upward momentum. The firm maintains a "Buy" rating for Li Ning and raises the target price to HKD 23.4, equivalent to 18 times the 2026 P/E ratio [1] Group 1: 2025 Performance Expectations - The management anticipates that the performance in 2025 will exceed the company's initial guidance, with full-year revenue expected to show a slight year-on-year increase driven by rapid growth in children's clothing and professional channels [2] - The forecast for 2025 includes a revenue increase of 2.5% to RMB 29.4 billion, with a net profit of RMB 2.75 billion and a net profit margin of 9.4%. After excluding one-time impairment items from the first half, the core net profit is expected to reach RMB 2.93 billion, with a core net profit margin of 10.0% [2] Group 2: Future Trends - Li Ning is one of the few sports brands that showed a month-on-month improvement in sales in December, likely due to the launch of the Honor Gold Medal product series at the end of last year. The short-term sales performance is heavily influenced by the timing of the New Year and Spring Festival holidays, which may not provide a reliable reference [3] - With the Milan Winter Olympics approaching on February 6, the brand's exposure is expected to continue increasing, positively impacting future sales trends [3] Group 3: 2026 and Beyond Development Predictions - For 2026, management plans to moderately lower growth expectations for running and badminton categories while hoping for improved performance in basketball and sports lifestyle categories. The overall revenue growth is expected to accelerate due to continued growth in the running category [4] - The company will increase marketing expenditures in 2026, with the marketing expense ratio expected to rise year-on-year. Focusing on "Olympics + Technology," Li Ning aims to enhance brand strength and reshape its brand over the next three years, laying a foundation for long-term revenue growth [4]

Core Viewpoint - The report from浦银国际 indicates that with the current strong market sentiment, if Li Ning's brand strength recovers and revenue shows a clear improvement trend, its stock price is expected to gain significant upward momentum. The firm maintains a "Buy" rating for Li Ning and raises the target price to HKD 23.4, equivalent to 18x 2026 P/E [1]. Group 1: 2025 Performance Expectations - The management anticipates that the overall revenue for 2025 will show a slight year-on-year increase, driven by rapid growth in children's clothing and professional channels, which is better than the initial guidance of "flat year-on-year revenue" [2]. - The firm forecasts Li Ning's total revenue for 2025 to grow by 2.5% year-on-year to RMB 29.4 billion, with net profit reaching RMB 2.75 billion and a net profit margin of 9.4% [2]. - After excluding one-time impairment items from the first half of the year, the core net profit is expected to reach RMB 2.93 billion, with a core net profit margin of 10.0% [2]. Group 2: Future Trends - Li Ning is one of the few sports brands that showed a month-on-month improvement in December revenue, likely due to the launch of the Honor Gold Medal product series at the end of last year [3]. - The short-term revenue performance is significantly influenced by the timing of the New Year and Spring Festival holidays, which may not provide a reliable reference [3]. - With the upcoming Milan Winter Olympics starting on February 6, Li Ning's brand exposure is expected to increase, positively impacting future revenue trends [3]. Group 3: 2026 and Beyond Development Outlook - For 2026, management plans to moderately lower growth expectations for running and badminton categories while expecting improvements in basketball and sports lifestyle categories [4]. - The firm predicts that revenue from the running category will continue to grow over the next two years, accelerating overall revenue growth for Li Ning [4]. - Li Ning will increase marketing expenditures in 2026, with the marketing expense ratio expected to rise year-on-year, focusing on brand reshaping and enhancement over the next three years [4].