Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Li Ning [5] Core Insights - Li Ning's Q4 2025 revenue met expectations, with a slight year-on-year decline in overall revenue. Offline channel revenue decreased in the low single digits, while e-commerce revenue remained flat [1] - The children's clothing segment, Li Ning YOUNG, is expected to continue its steady growth, with 1,518 stores by the end of Q4 2025, reflecting a net increase of 50 stores since the beginning of the year. The inventory turnover ratio is projected to be between 4 and 5, indicating a healthy level [2] - For 2025, the company is expected to report a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.742 billion yuan, a 9% year-on-year decline. Revenue is anticipated to show slight growth [2] - In 2026, the company plans to enhance its marketing efforts and test new store formats, projecting a revenue growth of 6.5% and a net profit increase of 5.8% to 2.901 billion yuan [3] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2025 is estimated at 29.269 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 2.1%. The net profit for 2025 is projected at 2.742 billion yuan, reflecting a decline of 9% [4] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is expected to be 1.06 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 16.6 times [4] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 10.0% in 2025, with a gradual increase to 10.6% by 2027 [4]

摩根士丹利发布研报称，李宁预期去年营收将实现温和增长(相对先前指引为持平)，净利率预计稳定在 高单位数的高位，意味市场对其去年净利润的共识预期将上调。大摩指，李宁年初至今销售额低于预 期，折扣幅度较去年同期更大。但认为春节购物旺季前后的寒冷天气可能会加速销售增长。 该行认为，市场对李宁去年的盈利预测将上调至该行预测的水准，即27.5亿元人民币。意味著去年下半 年净利率可能按年提升。虽然广告与推广支出增加且折扣幅度加大，但李宁去年营业利润率按年持平， 表明营运效率有所提升。考虑到主要股东于去年增持股票，大摩认为市场对李宁业绩转势的预期将会上 升。 李宁(02331)早盘涨超5%，截至发稿，涨3.94%，报20.32港元，成交额2.36亿港元。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，李宁(02331)早盘涨超5%，截至发稿，涨3.94%，报20.32港元，成交额2.36亿港元。 该行认为，市场对李宁去年的盈利预测将上调至该行预测的水准，即27.5亿元人民币。意味著去年下半 年净利率可能按年提升。虽然广告与推广支出增加且折扣幅度加大，但李宁去年营业利润率按年持平， 表明营运效率有所提升。考虑到主要股东于去年增持股票，大摩认为市场对李宁业绩转势的预期将会上 升。 摩根士丹利发布研报称，李宁预期去年营收将实现温和增长(相对先前指引为持平)，净利率预计稳定在 高单位数的高位，意味市场对其去年净利润的共识预期将上调。 大摩指，李宁年初至今销售额低于预 期，折扣幅度较去年同期更大。但认为春节购物旺季前后的寒冷天气可能会加速销售增长。 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's retail performance showed a low single-digit decline in sales for the fourth quarter ending December 31, 2025, with offline channels experiencing a mid-single-digit decline and e-commerce remaining flat. The total number of sales points in China was 6,091, a net decrease of 41 from the previous quarter [2][3] - The fourth quarter saw a narrowing decline in sales compared to the third quarter, primarily due to a reduction in the decline of offline channels. The inventory turnover ratio improved to 4-5 months, and new product launches were frequent, including the opening of flagship stores and outdoor stores [2][3][5] - The company is expected to benefit from effective cost control and government subsidies, leading to an upward revision of profit forecasts for 2025-2027, with projected net profits of 26.2 billion, 28.0 billion, and 32.9 billion yuan respectively [2][11] Summary by Sections Retail Performance - For the fourth quarter, the company's sales point performance (excluding Li Ning YOUNG) recorded a low single-digit decline year-on-year. The offline channel saw a mid-single-digit decline, while e-commerce remained stable. The total number of sales points decreased by 41 from the previous quarter [2][3] Sales and Discounts - The fourth quarter saw a low single-digit decline in sales, which improved compared to the third quarter. Retail and wholesale channels experienced low and mid-single-digit declines respectively, while e-commerce remained flat. The discount levels deepened slightly, with inventory turnover improving to 4-5 months [4][5] New Products and Store Formats - The company launched a series of new products in the fourth quarter, including innovative running shoes designed for wet weather. Additionally, the company opened its first outdoor specialty store and a flagship "Dragon Store" in Beijing, targeting the middle-class consumer segment [5][11] Financial Forecasts - The company revised its profit forecasts upward, expecting net profits of 26.2 billion, 28.0 billion, and 32.9 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting a year-on-year change of -13.1%, +7.0%, and +17.3% [11][12]

研究报告 Research Report 15 Jan 2026 李宁 LI NING (2331 HK) 4Q25 营运表现点评：4Q25 流水符合预期，上调 25 年净利率指引 4Q25 Operating Review: GMV in Line with Expectations; 25E Net Profit Margin Guidance Raised [Table_yemei 观点聚焦 1] Investment Focus [Table_Info] 维持优于大市 Maintain OUTPERFORM 评级 优于大市 OUTPERFORM 现价 HK$19.55 目标价 HK$22.30 HTI ESG 0.8-2.2-3.5 E-S-G: 0-5, (Please refer to the Appendix for ESG comments) 市值 HK$50.53bn / US$6.48bn 日交易额 (3 个月均值) US$42.39mn 发行股票数目 2,585mn 自由流通股 (%) 86% 1 年股价最高最低值 HK$20.28-HK$13.96 注：现价 HK$19.55 为 20 ...

证券研究报告|港股公司点评报告 [Table_Date] 2026 年 01 月 15 日 [Table_Title] Q4 流水承压，关注新店型和新产品发展 [Table_Title2] 李宁(2331.HK) | [Table_DataInfo] 评级： | 买入 | 股票代码： | 2331 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上次评级： | 买入 | 52 周最高价/最低价(港元)： | 20.28/14.52 | | 目标价格(港元)： | | 总市值(亿港元) | 505.33 | | 最新收盘价(港元)： | 19.55 | 自由流通市值(亿港元) | 505.33 | | | | 自由流通股数(百万) | 2,584.81 | [Table_Summary] 事件概述 李宁发布最新运营状况，25Q4 李宁（不包括李宁 YOUNG）流水同比实现低单位数下降，其中线下/电商分 别为中单位数下降/持平，零售/批发分别为低单位数下降/中单位数下降。 大股东持续增持，李宁/李麒麟先生持股比例由年初的 10.7%/10.6%提升至 14.8%/14.4%，回购价格在 14.96-1 ...

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責，對其 準確性或完整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示，概不對因本公告全部或任何部份內容 而產生或因依賴該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 LI NING COMPANY LIMITED 李 寧 有 限 公 司 （於開曼群島註冊成立之有限公司） 股份代號：2331（港幣櫃台）及 82331（人民幣櫃台） 二零二五年第四季度最新運營狀況 二零二五年第四季度最新運營狀況 本公告乃李寧有限公司（「本公司」，連同其附屬公司統稱為「本集團」）董事會（「董 事會」）自願發出，以提供以下之集團業務運營情況。 截至2025年12月31日，於中國，李寧銷售點數量（不包括李寧YOUNG）共計6,091個，較 上一季末淨減少41個，本年迄今淨減少26個。在淨減少的26個銷點售中，零售業務淨減 少59個，批發業務淨增加33個。 截至2025年12月31日，於中國，李寧YOUNG銷售點數量共計1,518個，較上一季末淨增加 38個，本年迄今淨增加50個。 本公司股東及潛在投資者須注意， 本公司股東及潛在投資者須注意，此公告是根據本集團未經審計的運營資料編制 此公告是 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company has launched a new store format and product line, marking a significant event in its partnership with the Chinese Olympic Committee, with the opening of the first "Dragon Store" and the release of the new Honor Gold product series [1] Group 1: New Store and Product Launch - The "Dragon Store" is themed around "Award Moments," "Competition Moments," and "Life Moments," aimed at creating exclusive products and experiences for consumers [1] - The Honor Gold series significantly differs from the brand's previous product styles, integrating professional sports technology with minimalist design to cater to urban middle-class needs [1] Group 2: Financial Performance and Market Outlook - Despite overall pressure on discretionary consumption in 2025, the company is expected to achieve slightly better-than-expected performance, driven by categories like badminton [2] - The company maintains a strong inventory structure, with 82% of mid-2025 inventory being new products with a sales ratio of only four months [2] - Continuous share buybacks by the major shareholder reflect confidence in the company's long-term development, increasing their stake from 10.53% to 14.27% by the end of 2025 [2] Group 3: Earnings Forecast and Investment Recommendation - The earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025-2027 have been slightly adjusted to 0.95, 1.07, and 1.22 yuan respectively, with a target price of 25.41 HKD based on a 24x valuation for 2025 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The "Li Ning Cup" China-ASEAN Pickleball Open Tournament commenced in Nanning, Guangxi, featuring teams from China and ASEAN countries such as Vietnam, Thailand, the Philippines, and Brunei, promoting friendship through sports [2]. Group 1 - The tournament aims to strengthen ties between China and ASEAN nations through sportsmanship and friendly competition [2]. - Li Ning, the chairman of Li Ning Group, participated in the opening ceremony by serving the first ball [2]. - The event showcases various teams, highlighting the participation of athletes from different countries, including the Philippines and Thailand [4][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][5]. Core Insights - The company is expected to see new developments in the upcoming Olympic cycle, with the launch of new store formats and product lines aimed at enhancing brand engagement and meeting diverse consumer needs [2][9]. - The earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been slightly adjusted to 0.95, 1.07, and 1.22 RMB respectively, with a target price set at 25.41 HKD based on a 24x valuation for 2025 [3][10]. - The company has shown resilience in a challenging consumer environment, with expectations for slight revenue growth driven by specific product categories and improved operational efficiency [9]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 27,598 million RMB - 2024: 28,676 million RMB (growth of 3.9%) - 2025: 29,101 million RMB (growth of 1.5%) - 2026: 30,640 million RMB (growth of 5.3%) - 2027: 32,747 million RMB (growth of 6.9%) [4]. - Operating profit and net profit forecasts indicate a decline in 2025, with operating profit expected to be 3,331 million RMB and net profit at 2,465 million RMB, before recovering in subsequent years [4]. - The company’s gross margin is projected to remain stable, with estimates of 48.8% in 2025 and gradually increasing to 49.2% by 2027 [4]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is forecasted to be 18.6 in 2025, decreasing to 14.6 by 2027, indicating a potential improvement in valuation over time [4].