Core Viewpoint - McDonald's Corporation (MCD) is expected to report a decline in first-quarter 2025 earnings and revenues due to weak traffic and economic pressures on low-income consumers [2][4]. Financial Performance Expectations - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter EPS has decreased to $2.64, reflecting a 2.2% drop from the previous year's EPS of $2.70 [2]. - Revenue estimates for the quarter are set at $6.08 billion, indicating a 1.4% year-over-year decline [2]. - U.S. revenues are projected to decline by 0.9% to $2,486.3 million, while revenues from International Operated Markets are expected to decrease by 0.7% to $2,927.1 million [3]. Factors Influencing Performance - Weak traffic, particularly in the U.S. and large international markets, is anticipated to negatively impact revenues [2]. - Economic pressures on low-income consumers have suppressed spending, affecting traffic and average check sizes [2]. - Despite the challenges, strong digital adoption, innovative menu offerings, and strategic unit expansion are expected to support performance [4]. Operational Insights - The company is likely to see a 1% increase in U.S. same-store sales and a 0.9% increase in International Operated Markets comps [5]. - Persistent pressure from elevated commodity prices and wages may have negatively impacted the operating margin during the quarter [5]. Earnings Prediction - The model predicts a potential earnings beat for McDonald's, supported by a positive Earnings ESP of +0.06% and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [6].

Core Insights - The article discusses the investment landscape and the potential opportunities within the market, emphasizing the importance of thorough research and analysis before making investment decisions [1] Company Analysis - The article highlights that Parkev Tatevosian, CFA, has no current positions in any of the stocks mentioned, indicating a neutral stance on specific investments [1] - The Motley Fool, as an organization, also has no positions in the stocks discussed, which may suggest a level of objectivity in their analysis [1] Industry Overview - The disclosure policy of The Motley Fool is mentioned, which may impact the perception of their recommendations and analyses in the investment community [1] - The potential for compensation for promoting services is noted, which could influence the opinions expressed by affiliates like Parkev Tatevosian [1]

The upcoming report from McDonald's (MCD) is expected to reveal quarterly earnings of $2.64 per share, indicating a decline of 2.2% compared to the year-ago period. Analysts forecast revenues of $6.08 billion, representing a decrease of 1.4% year over year. The current level reflects an upward revision of 0.2% in the consensus EPS estimate for the quarter over the past 30 days. This demonstrates how the analysts covering the stock have collectively reappraised their initial projections over this period. Bef ...

Core Viewpoint - McDonald's is set to report its Q1 earnings on May 1, with analysts expecting a slight revenue decline of 1.4% year-over-year to $6.08 billion and an EPS of $2.68, down 1% year-over-year. However, some analysts believe the company's performance may exceed expectations due to recent promotional activities and menu innovations [1] Group 1: Financial Performance Expectations - Analysts predict McDonald's Q1 revenue will be $6.08 billion, a 1.4% decrease year-over-year [1] - Expected EPS for Q1 is $2.68, reflecting a 1% decline compared to the previous year [1] - Full-year EPS is projected to reach $12.25, a 4.5% increase from FY2024's $11.72, with an anticipated 8.2% growth to $13.25 by FY2026 [2] Group 2: Sales Trends and Promotions - Recent franchise surveys indicate a significant improvement in U.S. sales trends, with April sales showing substantial growth attributed to the "Minecraft" movie collaboration [1] - The upcoming launch of the crispy chicken strips, along with other menu updates like snack packaging and lemonade, is expected to attract customers [2] - The "McValue" menu introduced in January offers popular items at promotional prices, enhancing customer appeal [2] Group 3: Digital Ecosystem and Customer Engagement - McDonald's strong digital ecosystem, particularly the MyMcDonald's Rewards program with 175 million active users across 60 markets, is driving sales and providing valuable customer data for personalized marketing [2] - The focus on digital innovation is crucial for sustaining growth, especially as consumer behavior shifts towards online engagement [2] Group 4: Analyst Ratings - The overall analyst sentiment on McDonald's stock is bullish, with a consensus rating of "Moderate Buy" [3] - Among 35 analysts tracking the stock, 20 have given a "Strong Buy" rating, 2 a "Moderate Buy," and 13 a "Hold" rating [3] - The average target price for McDonald's stock is set at $330.94 [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for McDonald's and Domino's, while Starbucks and Shake Shack are rated as "Hold" [4][46]. Core Insights - The US restaurant sector outlook is tempered due to macroeconomic pressures, geopolitical uncertainty, and changing consumer behaviors, leading to a reduction in adjusted net earnings estimates by approximately 4% for 2025-26 [2][3]. - Same-store sales (SSS) are expected to decline by an average of 90 basis points year-over-year for 2025-26, primarily due to affordability issues affecting lower-income consumers, although there is some mitigation from higher-income diners trading down for value [2][3]. - The report emphasizes a preference for defensive, value-driven leaders with operational agility, highlighting McDonald's and Domino's as favorable investments due to their resilient franchise revenue streams and scalable operating models [3][25]. Summary by Company McDonald's - McDonald's is recognized for its resilient revenue stream, primarily from its 95% franchised model, and its broad geographic footprint, which provides diversification [7][25]. - The target price for McDonald's is revised to USD 343.00, reflecting a 10.2% upside potential [4][46]. - The company is expected to benefit from a multi-layered pricing strategy and digital transformation initiatives, which are anticipated to enhance operational efficiency and customer engagement [25][26]. Domino's - Domino's is noted for its strong franchise model and predictable income streams, allowing for continued investment in growth and innovation [7][30]. - The target price for Domino's is set at USD 540.00, indicating a 15.7% upside potential [4][46]. - The company is expected to leverage its marketing and distribution expertise to drive international growth, particularly in markets like China and India [30][31]. Starbucks - Starbucks is undergoing tactical changes aimed at long-term turnaround, with a focus on enhancing brand value and customer experience [7][37]. - The target price for Starbucks is lowered to USD 84.00, reflecting a 3.1% upside potential [4][46]. - Despite challenges, the company is expected to stabilize its same-store sales declines and improve customer engagement through operational initiatives [37][49]. Shake Shack - Shake Shack is recognized for its differentiated brand equity and commitment to high-quality menu items, with a solid development pipeline expected to drive growth [7][42]. - The target price for Shake Shack is revised to USD 89.00, indicating a 6.9% upside potential [4][46]. - The company faces headwinds from competition and macroeconomic concerns, but it is positioned to capitalize on its brand strength and market opportunities [42][50].

作者 | Sungarden Investment Publishing 编译 | 华尔街大事件 在市场 可能持续混乱的情况下， 麦当劳 ( NYSE: MCD )比大多数公司更有可能坚守阵地。下图是该股与 标准普尔500指数和道琼斯工业指数的对比图。麦当劳是道琼斯工业指数中排名第七的成分股，占该指数 权重的4.8%。 这只是很短的一段时间。尽管麦当劳的食品并非最健康的消费者饮食，但该股仍然是一个天然的"避风 港"。这并不意味着该股会上涨，而是意味着它的跌幅可能低于大盘。因此，在分析师看来，这只股票的 评级是经典的"持有"。 所以，正如您所见，净收入有所改善。即使在这种情况下，公司也变得更加高效，专注于特许经营业 务，并展现出即使在充满挑战的情况下也能控制成本和费用的能力。这对公司来说是一个积极的方面。 另一个利好因素是 长期。即使短期内可能持续存在一些宏观经济逆风（主要与 消费者支出压力 有关 ），我们仍有信心，公司能够继续实现营收和利润的增长，通过自动化、数字化和特许经营的更高关联 性来提高效率，并通过定价能力、客户忠诚度等方式增加收入。 但即便如此，还是觉得这有点复杂，因为健康习惯、其他替代方案的出现（ ...

It’s been six months since I last wrote about McDonald's Corporation (NYSE: MCD ). During this time, the company has released its annual results. There are many interesting things to discuss about the fiscal yearQuality Growth Investor. I have the simplest of tastes, I only like the best. Here I will analyze the companies in my investment universe. I am looking for the best businesses in the world in order to create a long term portfolio that can outperform the market.Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stoc ...

McDonald's (MCD) closed at $312.48 in the latest trading session, marking a -1.14% move from the prior day. This move lagged the S&P 500's daily loss of 0.17%. Meanwhile, the Dow experienced a drop of 0.39%, and the technology-dominated Nasdaq saw a decrease of 0.05%.Coming into today, shares of the world's biggest hamburger chain had gained 3.98% in the past month. In that same time, the Retail-Wholesale sector lost 2.42%, while the S&P 500 lost 3.94%.Analysts and investors alike will be keeping a close ey ...

Core Viewpoint - McDonald's Corporation (MCD) is experiencing a bullish trend, with stock performance outperforming industry peers and broader market indices, driven by strategic initiatives and global expansion efforts [1][5][20]. Group 1: Stock Performance - MCD's stock closed at $316.07, above its 50-day moving average of $305.19 and 200-day moving average of $288.64, indicating a bullish trend [1]. - Over the past three months, MCD shares have gained 13%, significantly outperforming the Zacks Retail - Restaurants industry's 0.6% rise and the S&P 500 index's 9.3% decline [5]. - MCD has outperformed competitors such as Restaurant Brands International (QSR), Wendy's (WEN), and Chipotle (CMG) during the same period [8]. Group 2: Global Expansion Strategy - McDonald's is focused on expanding its global presence, opening 2,116 restaurants in 2024, up from 2,067 in 2023, as part of its Accelerating the Arches strategy [10]. - The company plans to open 2,200 restaurants globally in 2025, contributing over 4% to new unit growth, and aims for a total of 50,000 restaurants by the end of 2027 [11]. Group 3: Menu Innovation and Customer Engagement - McDonald's is enhancing its core menu offerings and customer experience, launching the McValue platform in January 2025 to provide better value and options [12]. - The company is improving delivery services, with delivery sales mix doubling in Australia, Canada, and the U.S., and aims for 30% of system-wide delivery sales to come from its mobile app by 2027 [13]. Group 4: Loyalty Program and Digital Initiatives - Since launching its loyalty program, McDonald's has seen over 170 million 90-day active users, with sales to loyalty members reaching $30 billion in 2024 [15]. - The company aims to expand its active user base to 250 million and achieve $45 billion in annual sales by 2027, driven by digital adoption [15]. Group 5: Earnings Outlook - Analysts have increased the Zacks Consensus Estimate for McDonald's 2025 EPS from $12.23 to $12.25, indicating a 4.5% year-over-year increase, with further growth anticipated in 2026 [17]. - McDonald's is currently valued at a premium with a forward 12-month P/E ratio of 25.21X, slightly above the industry average of 25.12X, reflecting its strong market position and growth potential [18].

Core Viewpoint - McDonald's is currently facing investor reassessment due to mixed financial performance and pressures impacting sales, yet it remains a key stock with significant strengths and growth opportunities [2][3][18]. Financial Performance - For FY 2024, McDonald's consolidated revenues reached $25.9 billion, a 2% increase year-over-year, while global comparable sales saw a slight decline of 0.1% [6]. - The U.S. market experienced a 0.2% increase for the year but a 1.4% decline in Q4, primarily due to a decrease in average check amounts [4]. - International Operated Markets (IOM) decreased by 0.2% for the year, remaining flat in Q4, while International Developmental Licensed Markets (IDL) saw a 0.3% decline for the year but a 4.1% increase in Q4 [5]. - Full-year diluted earnings per share (EPS) was $11.39, a 1% decrease, while adjusted diluted EPS was $11.72, down 2% [6]. Digital Strategy - McDonald's has been building a strong digital ecosystem, with the MyMcDonald's Rewards program achieving over 175 million active users and a 15% increase in user engagement year-over-year [7]. - The loyalty program generated $30 billion in systemwide sales in 2024, a 30% increase from the previous year, with $8 billion in sales in Q4 alone [8]. Shareholder Returns - McDonald's has a dividend yield of 2.29%, with an annual dividend of $7.08 and a track record of 49 consecutive years of dividend increases [10]. - The company produced $6.67 billion in free cash flow in FY 2024, supporting dividends and share buybacks, with approximately $2.82 billion worth of stock repurchased [11]. Competitive Advantages - McDonald's brand is globally recognized, and its operational scale allows for increased efficiency and a dominant market presence [14]. - The company operates a heavily franchised model (around 95%), generating consistent high-margin royalty and rent income [15]. Growth Opportunities - Continued expansion and improvements in digital and loyalty platforms are expected to increase customer engagement and sales [16]. - Ongoing menu innovations and tactical value offerings aim to drive traffic and address affordability concerns among consumers [16]. Market Position - McDonald's currently trades at a trailing P/E ratio of around 26.7 and a forward P/E ratio near 24.8, indicating market expectations for continued earnings growth [12]. - Analysts generally rate the stock as a moderate buy, with an average 12-month price target of $322.87, suggesting modest upside potential from the current price [12].