Core Insights - The private capital market has reached a staggering $22 trillion, making it comparable to the world's second-largest economy, reshaping how companies, investors, and economies think about growth, risk, and control [1] - Private capital, defined as assets not traded on public markets, has seen explosive growth, doubling in size since 2012, primarily due to companies retreating from public markets [1][5] - The number of publicly listed companies in the U.S. has halved since 2000, while venture-capital-backed private companies have surged 25 times, indicating a significant shift towards private capital [1] Private Capital Growth - The "private market seven giants," companies valued at or above $100 billion, have seen their total valuation soar nearly fivefold since 2023, reaching $1.4 trillion [5] - Private equity has outperformed the S&P 500 by an average of six percentage points annually during this period [5] - The trend of companies remaining private longer has extended to an average of 16 years, reflecting a broader shift towards private capital to avoid public market scrutiny [1][5] Risks and Concerns - Financial experts warn that the opacity of private capital can breed risks, particularly in the $1 trillion to $3 trillion private credit sector, which lacks the transparency and governance of public markets [8] - Recent bankruptcies in the private credit space have led to significant market volatility, highlighting the potential dangers of this asset class [8] - Concerns have been raised about the sustainability of private credit growth, especially in light of economic downturns that could trigger a wave of defaults [8] Capital Allocation Shift - The decline in companies seeking IPOs indicates a diminishing role of public markets in economic growth, while private investors are increasingly funding innovations driven by technologies like AI [9] - Major tech companies have invested heavily in AI startups, with private capital now financing a significant portion of data center transactions, reflecting a shift in capital allocation [12][14] - The current spending surge in private credit is raising alarms about potential overextension and the risk of losses if speculative investments do not yield returns [19] Long-term Implications - The structural shift towards private investment is influencing technology development, job creation, and risk management practices, with the top 120 private unicorns having a total valuation comparable to the German stock market [22] - The growth of private capital is leading to the emergence of alternative investment platforms outside traditional public markets, potentially allowing for longer private company existence [22] - The evolving landscape of private capital is seen as a transformative force in the financial world, opening up new investment opportunities and altering the dynamics of company valuation and economic structure [24]

Most of the Magnificent Seven of “Mag 7” companies are now out with their earnings. Note that the Mag 7 group is the backbone of the S&P 500’s tech exposure.These stocks accounted for about one-fourth of all S&P 500 earnings.Q3 earnings for the S&P 500 index would be up 6.1% from the same period last year if the Mag 7 group’s substantial earnings contribution is excluded (vs. +7.3% otherwise), per the Earnings Trends issued on Oct. 29, 2025.For the Magnificent 7 group, Q3 earnings are expected to be up 11.5 ...

The major U.S. index futures are currently pointing to a higher open on Friday, with stocks likely to move back to the upside after coming under pressure over the course of the previous session.Early buying interest may be generated in reaction to upbeat earnings news from big-name companies like Amazon (AMZN) and Apple (AAPL).Shares of Amazon are soaring by 13.0 percent in pre-market trading after the online retail giant reported better than expected third quarter results amid a sharp increase in cloud co ...

Core Insights - Joe Lonsdale, co-founder of Palantir Technologies, believes that the AI industry is underestimating the resources needed to meet ambitious targets [1][2] - Lonsdale warns of a cycle where AI executives seek more capital every 3-6 months, downplaying their needs to avoid alarming investors [2] - There is a significant increase in capital expenditures among major tech companies, with a 23% quarter-over-quarter and 85% year-over-year rise, totaling nearly $80 billion in the September quarter [3] Investment Perspectives - Analysts from Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Wedbush argue that current AI investment levels are sustainable and could unlock an $8 trillion opportunity [4] - Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic adviser at Allianz, cautions that investments in some AI-related companies may lead to losses, describing the current market as a "rational bubble" [5] - Year-to-date performance of AI ETFs shows significant gains, with the Dan Ives Wedbush AI Revolution ETF up 35.42% and ARK Innovation ETF up 50.61% [5]

IT之家 10 月 31 日消息，微软联合创始人、前 CEO 比尔・盖茨本周（10 月 28 日）出席 CNBC 电视台《Squawk Box》节目，与主持人对谈 AI 行业目前的 现状，并预测未来 AI 行业将出现"泡沫破裂"。 IT之家注：互联网泡沫指的是 1995 年-2002 年前后，全球互联网行业发展初期出现的一场投机潮，当时人们对"互联网改变世界"展现巨大期待，大量资金疯 狂涌入网络公司，甚至许多资金流向了没有盈利能力的骗子企业。 最终这场泡沫在 2000 年 3 月 10 日达到顶峰，纳斯达克指数达到 5048 点，但从 4 月开始科技股票就大幅下跌，逐步导致市场信心崩溃，引发大量互联网公 司破产，最终纳指在 2002 年 10 月跌至 1100 点左右，不过这场泡沫也淘汰掉了许多不良商业模式，留下了亚马逊、谷歌、eBay 等真正能赚钱的公司。 他对"互联网泡沫"破裂时的景象回忆道："最终整个行业发生了具有深远意义的事件（指 2002 年纳指跌至 1100 点左右），世界变得完全不同。一些公司最 终在泡沫破裂时站稳了脚跟，但大多数公司只是跟风投机，消耗资本最终倒闭"。 盖茨预测道，一些投资数十亿 ...

智东西10月31日消息，据The Register报道，微软最新公布的季度财报，有几段文字暗示OpenAI本季度净亏损115亿美元（约合人民币818亿 元）。 在其官方收益报告第9页，包含以下段落： 我们对OpenAI Global, LLC（"OpenAI"）进行了投资，并已承诺投资130亿美元，截至2025年 9月30日，已投入116亿美元。该投资 采用权益法进行会计处理，我们在OpenAI的收入或亏损中所占份额计入其他收入（支出）净额。 第二句话很重要。这不是按市值计价的会计方法。按市值计价的会计方法是根据市场当前估值（高达1350亿美元）计算投资的假定价值，并在 初始投资的基础上增减估值。这是权益会计，OpenAI的收益或亏损会直接影响微软损益表中的净利润。 接下来，在第33页，出现了以下内容： 本年度净利润和摊薄后每股收益受对OpenAI投资净亏损的负面影响，分别导致净利润和摊薄后每股收益减少31亿美元和0.41美元。 上年度净利润和摊薄后每股收益也受对OpenAI投资净亏损的负面影响，分别导致净利润和摊薄后每股收益减少5.23亿美元和0.07美 元。 微软拒绝就此置评，仅确认这31亿美元的"今年" ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the expertise of an independent investor in the Indian and US equity markets, highlighting their qualifications and research focus [1]. Group 1: Investor Profile - The investor holds a CFA Charter and a PhD in Finance from the University of Durham, U.K. [1] - The investor is an Honorary Associate Professor in Finance and Corporate Governance at Brunel University London [1]. - The investor runs a YouTube and Podcast channel titled "The Stock Doctor," where they share insights on the US and Indian markets weekly [1]. Group 2: Research Focus - The investor actively conducts quantitative research in various areas, including US equities, Behavioural Finance, Corporate Governance, Activist Hedge Funds, Cryptocurrencies, and M&A [1]. - The investor has published research in top-ranked peer-reviewed journals [1].

Markets are in the midst of the busiest week for third quarter earnings, with results from several Big Tech companies highlighting the calendar. So far, the earnings season is off to a positive start. As of Oct. 24, 29% of S&P 500 companies have reported results, according to FactSet data, and analysts are expecting a 9.2% jump in earnings per share during the third quarter. If that figure holds, it would mark the ninth straight quarter of positive earnings growth but a deceleration from the 12% earnings ...

微软、谷歌(GOOGL.US)等科技巨头营收的飙升，本在市场预期之内。但本周，包括霍尼韦尔 (HON.US)、涡轮机制造商GE Vernova(GEV.US)以及重型设备生产商卡特彼勒(CAT.US)在内的逾百家非 科技行业全球企业，均在季度财报会议上提及数据中心业务。 这些进展，连同众多的财报电话会议和高管访谈都清晰地表明，AI已稳固成为全球企业投资的最大催 化剂和股市上涨的引擎，即便有人对这两者的可持续性提出质疑。 投资热潮持续不退 卡特彼勒数据中心设备供应部门在上一季度销售额增长31%。该公司首席执行官Joseph Creed本周表 示："我们对数据中心备用电源业务的发展前景充满信心。" Wealth Enhancement Group投资组合经理Ayako Yoshioka表示："如今AI供应链已涵盖能源、工业制造与 冷却技术等领域，投资者关注的是整个生态系统，而非仅限于核心科技板块。" 科技行业刚刚经历了意义深远的一周，种种迹象表明，尽管存在泡沫论调，但人工智能(AI)基建热潮丝 毫没有放缓的迹象。 作为AI革命核心的英伟达(NVDA.US)，其市值率先突破5万亿美元大关;微软(MSFT.US)与O ...

Tier 2: The unicorns in limbo (OpenAI, Anthropic, Scale AI) command massive valuations but face existential questions. Can they achieve returns that justify stratospheric valuations? Can they compete against both hyperscalers with infinite resources and substantially cheaper models coming in from overseas? The next 18 to 24 months will separate the winners and losers.Tier 1: The hyperscalers (Microsoft MSFT, Alphabet GOOGL GOOG, Amazon.com AMZN, Meta Platforms META, Apple AAPL) are essentially unassailable. ...