日本央行12月货币政策会议在即，市场已将12月加息至0.75%的概率定价至约90%。野村证券认为，12月加息几成定局，关注焦点已转向 央行行长植田和男如何传达未来加息路径，特别是终端利率水平和加息节奏的表态。 12月11日，据追风交易台消息，野村证券在最新研报中称，由于12月无经济展望报告，植田和男对中性利率的表态和未来加息路径的暗 示将成为市场焦点。 该行预计，植田和男将强调"实际利率仍非常低"，这意味着不会发出加息即将结束的鸽派信号。对于中性利率，植田和男可能保持表态 模糊以维持政策灵活性。野村特别强调，如果日本央行删除"根据经济和物价发展的改善情况提高政策利率"措辞，暗示额外加息阻碍降 低。 最新调查显示，九成经济学家预测日本央行将在12月18-19日会议上加息25个基点，且市场已完全消化极为激进的加息路径，2026年9月 前利率料升至1.0%，终端利率预期高达1.5%。 不过，野村认为，即使考虑到经济刺激方案规模扩大和近期日元贬值的影响，本次会议不太可能释放比市场已消化更为鹰派的加息节奏 或更高终端利率信号。该行坚持认为加息至1.0%的时间点应在2027年1月，而非市场定价的2026年9月。 12月加 ...

Group 1 - Tower Semiconductor will participate in the Nomura's CES Technology Conference on January 5th and 6th, 2026 [1][2] - The conference will be held at the Bellagio Hotel in Las Vegas, providing opportunities for one-on-one meetings with company representatives [2] - Tower Semiconductor is a leading foundry specializing in high-value analog semiconductor solutions, serving various growing markets including consumer, industrial, automotive, mobile, infrastructure, medical, and aerospace and defense [3] Group 2 - The company offers a wide range of customizable process platforms such as SiGe, BiCMOS, mixed-signal/CMOS, RF CMOS, CMOS image sensors, and MEMS [3] - Tower Semiconductor operates multiple facilities, including one in Israel, two in the U.S., and two in Japan, with additional access to a 300mm capacity corridor in Intel's New Mexico factory [3] - The company emphasizes long-term partnerships and aims to create a positive and sustainable impact through its advanced analog technology offerings [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news indicates that Nomura Securities has revised its expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision in December, now anticipating a 25 basis point cut instead of maintaining rates [2] - The revision is based on sufficient dovish signals for the Fed's moderates, suggesting that a "risk management-style rate cut" is reasonable [2] - The report also highlights that the U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index data aligns with market expectations, not significantly altering the outlook for the Fed's policy easing [2] Group 2 - In the London gold market, the current trading price is above $4207, with a reported price of $4210.49 per ounce, reflecting a 0.33% increase [1] - The technical analysis indicates an overall upward trend for London gold, with key support levels at $4168 and $4110 [3] - The intraday trading analysis suggests a range-bound market, with support seen between $4195 and $4190, and resistance at $4230 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve should continue to lower interest rates, as indicated by Kevin Hassett, a leading candidate for the next Fed Chair [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Meeting Insights - The Federal Reserve is scheduled to hold a monetary policy meeting on December 9-10, with a high probability (89.6%) of a 25 basis point rate cut [3][5]. - Market expectations have shifted significantly, with major Wall Street institutions, including JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley, revising their forecasts to anticipate a rate cut instead of maintaining rates [4][5]. - The recent decline in U.S. employment data, particularly a loss of 32,000 private sector jobs in November, has contributed to the expectation of a rate cut [6]. Group 2: Wall Street Institutions' Predictions - Standard Chartered and other major banks have changed their predictions to expect a 25 basis point cut in December, contrary to previous forecasts of no change [5][6]. - Nomura Securities has revised its stance twice, now predicting a rate cut after initially suggesting rates would remain unchanged [6]. - Analysts note that the collective shift in predictions among Wall Street firms is largely due to the softening economic data from November [6]. Group 3: Future Projections - Nomura anticipates that under new leadership, the Fed will implement further rate cuts in June and September 2026 [6][7]. - The potential appointment of Kevin Hassett as the next Fed Chair could lead to more aggressive rate cuts, as he is expected to support such measures [7]. - Goldman Sachs forecasts that the Fed may pause rate cuts in January 2024 but continue in March and June, ultimately lowering the federal funds rate to a range of 3% to 3.25% [7].

Core Insights - Nomura Asset Management plans to relocate staff from Tokyo to global offices to enhance investment and sales operations, aiming to develop homegrown talent for a competitive edge in asset management [1][2] Group 1: Global Strategy - The company emphasizes the need to enhance global investment capabilities to maintain its relevance in the market [2] - Nomura currently has about 30 employees stationed abroad, with plans to significantly increase this number [3] - Potential relocation destinations include existing offices in New York, London, and Singapore, as well as new locations following recent acquisitions [3] Group 2: Market Position - As of September, Nomura Asset Management managed approximately ¥99.7 trillion ($643 billion), which is significantly smaller compared to industry leader BlackRock, which managed $11.6 trillion as of December 2024 [4] - The Japanese asset management sector is facing challenges due to a narrower product offering, impacting competitiveness against global rivals [2] Group 3: Talent Development - The company aims to send trainees and transfer staff to strengthen global talent development [2][5] - Nomura's acquisition of Macquarie assets is viewed as an opportunity for transformation into a more competitive asset management firm over the next five to ten years [5] - The goal is to acclimatize staff to English-speaking business environments to enhance their global operational capabilities upon returning to Japan [6]

Core Viewpoint - Nomura Securities has revised its previous expectation of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged in December, now predicting a 25 basis point rate cut during the December policy meeting. However, the company notes that there remains significant uncertainty surrounding the December policy decision [1] Summary by Relevant Categories - Interest Rate Outlook - Nomura now anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, contrasting its earlier stance of no change [1] - The prediction reflects a shift in sentiment among global peers regarding U.S. monetary policy [1] - Uncertainty Factors - Despite the revised outlook, Nomura emphasizes that the decision for December still carries a high degree of uncertainty [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is employing a complex and unpredictable intervention strategy to manage the depreciation of the rupee, which has reached all-time lows against the dollar, while balancing the need to avoid excessive market volatility and liquidity drain [1][3][4]. Intervention Strategy - RBI's intervention orders vary in focus, sometimes targeting specific amounts like selling $100 million per minute, while other times instructing traders to sell until a market level is reached or to refrain from trading altogether [1][2]. - The decision-making process for interventions occurs daily at RBI's headquarters, involving a Financial Markets Committee that assesses market pressures before the market opens [7]. - Once a decision is made, senior dealers at state-run banks execute the orders from soundproof rooms, ensuring confidentiality and unpredictability in the intervention process [8][9]. Market Conditions - The rupee has depreciated by 4.9% against the dollar in 2025, making it one of the worst-performing currencies among major economies, despite a general decline in the dollar's strength [4][5]. - Contributing factors to the rupee's weakness include a widening trade deficit, high US tariffs on Indian goods, and foreign capital outflows [5]. Historical Context - The RBI has a history of intervening in currency markets, particularly following crises such as the 1991 balance of payments crisis and the 2013 taper tantrum, which have shaped its current approach to managing the rupee [11][12]. - The RBI's foreign reserves stood at $686 billion as of November 28, 2023, providing a buffer against currency volatility [12]. Recent Developments - Recent interventions have led to a reduction of foreign currency assets by approximately $38 billion since June 2023, impacting liquidity in the banking system [17]. - The RBI has shown a willingness to tolerate some depreciation of the rupee, with net sales of foreign currency averaging $1.2 billion per week in late November 2023, compared to $3.5 billion in the preceding weeks [18]. - RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra has emphasized the goal of reducing excessive volatility rather than targeting specific price levels for the rupee [19]. Future Outlook - The RBI may be holding back on stronger interventions in anticipation of potential trade agreements with the US, which could alleviate some pressure on the rupee [20][21]. - The rupee's depreciation past the key level of 90 raises concerns about market perceptions and the ongoing challenge for the RBI to maintain stability while allowing for necessary adjustments [22].

Group 1 - The article does not provide any specific content related to a company or industry [1]

Core Insights - The article highlights the role of interest rate strategists in the financial world, focusing on the growth trajectory and essential qualities required for research work in this field [1] Group 1: Rotation System - Nomura's graduate program includes a unique rotation system that occurs after onboarding, allowing new employees to systematically learn from colleagues and gain a deeper understanding of their abilities and interests [2] - This rotation mechanism helps new employees identify their most suitable career paths, laying a solid foundation for long-term professional growth [2] Group 2: Daily Responsibilities of Interest Rate Strategists - Daily responsibilities include morning meetings to summarize significant news from the previous day and forecast the upcoming day [3] - The work is divided into three main parts: research, communication with sales or clients, and report writing, which includes weekly, monthly, and thematic reports [3] Group 3: Junior Talent Board - Nomura has established a Junior Talent Board and Junior Talent Committee to bridge the gap between management and junior employees, providing guidance and support [4] - The committee organizes regular social events and collects feedback on challenges faced by employees, ensuring that their career development needs are addressed [4] Group 4: Essential Qualities for Research Work - Key qualities for research work include an exploratory spirit, curiosity, and self-reflection [6] - Maintaining optimism and a high-quality output in unfamiliar areas is crucial, as is the practice of asking questions to deepen understanding [6] - Continuous self-evaluation and improvement are vital catalysts for professional growth [6]

Core Viewpoint - Nomura Holdings' price-to-book ratio has reached 1 for the first time since 2016, meeting a key benchmark set by the Tokyo Stock Exchange to enhance shareholder value [1][3] Group 1: Stock Performance - On Tuesday, Nomura's stock rose by 1.1% to 1189.5 JPY, marking the highest level since October 2008, and the stock closed at 1185.0 JPY, up 0.72% [1][2] - The stock price has increased approximately 77% since hitting a year-to-date low on April 7 [4] Group 2: Financial Performance - For the second fiscal quarter ending September 30, Nomura reported a net profit of 921 million USD, a 6.4% year-on-year decline, but significantly exceeding analysts' expectations of 701 million USD [4] - The annualized return on equity reached 10.6%, surpassing the company's target range of 8%-10% for the second consecutive quarter [4] Group 3: Business Strategy and Expansion - CEO Kentaro Okuda is focused on maintaining the company's profit recovery momentum through strengthening various business areas, including wealth management and asset management [5] - Nomura has entered an expansion phase after multiple rounds of cost-cutting, recently completing an 18 billion USD acquisition of Macquarie Group's public asset management business in the U.S. and Europe [5] - The company is also expanding its private market business and increasing the variety of public and alternative investment products for individual and institutional clients [5] Group 4: Market Outlook and Analyst Sentiment - Analysts are optimistic about Nomura's stock price potential, with one research firm raising its target price from 1000 JPY to 1700 JPY due to increased recurring revenue and improved profit stability [6] - The anticipated economic stimulus policies from the Japanese government are expected to benefit the Japanese stock market, potentially leading to a new valuation expansion period for Nomura [6]