Core Insights - The article highlights the successful completion of the Nomura Information Technology (Shanghai) 2025 Summer Internship Program, emphasizing the growth and learning experiences of the interns during their two-month tenure [1]. Group 1: Internship Experience - Interns reported significant personal and professional growth, gaining a comprehensive understanding of the financial IT industry, teamwork, and workplace dynamics [3]. - Key takeaways from the internship included technical skill enhancement, particularly in managing access permissions in high-security environments, and the application of theoretical knowledge to real-world projects [4]. - The importance of teamwork and communication was underscored, with interns learning to think more rigorously and engage proactively with colleagues to ensure system stability [4]. Group 2: Company Culture - Nomura's culture is characterized by a balance of professionalism and openness, with a strong emphasis on IT stability and security throughout the internship [7]. - The supportive team environment facilitated quick adaptation for interns, with colleagues and mentors readily sharing their experiences and insights [7]. - The company culture promotes a high degree of freedom for employees, provided that work quality and deadlines are met [7]. Group 3: Preparation for Transitioning to the Workplace - Transitioning from university to the workplace requires preparation in three key areas: mastering professional knowledge and practical tools, adopting a responsible and proactive mindset, and gaining practical experience through internships or projects [8]. - A shift in thinking is necessary, as the workplace has less room for error compared to academic settings, necessitating a focus on teamwork and basic workplace communication etiquette [8].

Group 1 - The core argument is that Sterling's tail risks are increasing ahead of two significant dates in the economic calendar, while the dollar may experience a short-term bounce according to Nomura [1]

Core Viewpoint - Inflation pressure in major developed economies is severe, with the UK facing significant challenges due to rising government debt-to-GDP ratios and limited room for further interest rate cuts, leading to almost inevitable tax increases [1][20]. Inflation Trends - The UK's inflation rate reached 3.8% in July, exceeding expectations, with service sector inflation at 5.0% [2][3]. - This marks the fourth consecutive month of inflation data surpassing forecasts, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [3]. Economic Context - Since the 2007 global financial crisis, the UK's government debt-to-GDP ratio has increased more than any other major developed economy, including the US [1][16]. - Current 10-year UK government bond yields have risen to 4.80%, the highest since January, increasing debt interest burdens [1][17]. Factors Driving Inflation - Weak productivity growth and imbalanced wage increases are key issues, with productivity growth averaging only 0.5% in the 2020s [8]. - The depreciation of the British pound, which has fallen over one-third since its peak in 2007, significantly contributes to inflation [9]. - The impact of Brexit has led to a decline in trade flow, increasing supply chain costs and domestic prices [11]. Monetary Policy Challenges - The persistence of inflation is reshaping the Bank of England's policy considerations, with potential pauses in interest rate cuts if inflation data continues to rise [15]. - Upcoming CPI data releases on September 17 and October 22 will be critical for the Bank's November meeting [15]. Fiscal Pressure - The combination of high inflation and high debt is intensifying fiscal challenges, with the government needing to raise taxes in the upcoming autumn budget [20]. - The Office for Budget Responsibility's optimistic growth forecasts may not align with market expectations, adding to fiscal strain [17].

Core Viewpoint - Nomura Group's summer internship program emphasizes community service and social contribution, allowing interns to engage in meaningful activities that give back to society [1][11]. Group 1: Internship Activities - In Singapore, interns collaborated with the social enterprise HeySprouts to support special needs groups, packaging and distributing fresh food to 200 families [3]. - In Hong Kong, interns participated in a soap recycling project with Soap Cycling, recovering over 1 kilogram of soap waste and handcrafting more than 50 bars of soap for OneSky-supported families, guided by disabled youth from the SOAPER Work training program [8][10]. Group 2: Personal Impact and Values - Interns expressed pride in Nomura Group's support for local community initiatives, with personal reflections on how these experiences resonate with their values and inspire future volunteer opportunities [6].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary's call for aggressive and contrasting monetary policies from the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan has caused significant market reactions, highlighting potential contradictions in current market narratives [1] Group 1: U.S. Monetary Policy - The U.S. Treasury Secretary advocates for the Federal Reserve to start cutting rates by 50 basis points in September, with a cumulative reduction of 150 to 175 basis points thereafter [1] - Current market expectations suggest that the Federal Reserve's target rate will not reach 3% until autumn next year, indicating a significant divergence from the Secretary's proposals [1] Group 2: Japanese Monetary Policy - The Secretary recommends that the Bank of Japan should raise interest rates to combat inflation and stabilize the yen [1] - The Japanese economy has shown resilience against U.S. tariffs, with a second-quarter GDP annualized growth rate of 1.0%, surpassing market expectations of 0.4% [3] Group 3: Market Reactions - The Japanese stock market experienced a significant surge, while the yen strengthened due to the dual expectations of U.S. rate cuts and Japanese rate hikes [1] - The market's response reflects a complex and divided sentiment regarding the implications of these contrasting monetary policies [1] Group 4: Feasibility and Risks - The feasibility of simultaneous U.S. rate cuts and Japanese rate hikes depends on key conditions, including the pace of U.S. rate cuts and the stability of Japan's economy and political landscape [2][3] - Political uncertainty in Japan, particularly the potential resignation of Prime Minister Kishida, poses a risk to the Bank of Japan's tightening expectations [4] Group 5: Macro Perspectives - A macro view suggests that the current interest rate scenario, with U.S. rates above 3% and Japanese rates below 1%, is "unnatural" and will likely require correction [6] - Two potential scenarios are identified: one where the Federal Reserve lags behind economic trends, necessitating aggressive rate cuts, and another where the Bank of Japan must accelerate rate hikes to keep pace with inflation [6][7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles suggests that the recent rise in the Japanese stock market is primarily a valuation correction relative to Western markets rather than a fundamentally driven bull market [1][3][4] - The report indicates that the market's expectation for the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to raise interest rates has weakened, with the probability of a rate hike this year currently at 57%, significantly lower than the peak of 84% following the US-Japan trade agreement [2][6] - Key sectors such as technology and banking are underperforming, which poses a significant constraint on the sustainability of the stock market rally [1][6][10] Group 2 - The report emphasizes that the recent stock market increase is more about correcting Japan's historically low valuations compared to the S&P 500 and the Stoxx 600, rather than signaling the start of a comprehensive bull market [3][4] - The absence of strong performance from key sectors, particularly technology, indicates that investors do not view the current rise as a sign of a broad cyclical recovery [6][10] - Speculative investors have reduced their long positions in the yen, with the scale of these positions dropping to 46% of the peak observed on April 29, which adds uncertainty to the outlook for the stock market [7][8][10]

Core Viewpoint - Nomura Securities economist Hannah Liu anticipates that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will unanimously agree to lower interest rates by 25 basis points, but is unlikely to provide dovish guidance [1] Economic Indicators - The second quarter Consumer Price Index (CPI) data suggests that the RBA's previous concerns about inflation may have been somewhat overstated [1] - The average unemployment rate for the second quarter was 4.2%, but it slightly increased to 4.3% in June [1] Economic Activity - Recent economic activity data has shown improvement, indicating that the current rationale for the RBA's interest rate cut is more about the policy space provided by falling inflation rather than a need for continuous rate cuts due to economic weakness [1]

钛媒体App 8月6日消息，野村证券表示，美国7月非农数据公布后，"12月底前降息两次"的可能性显著 增加，并指出由于潜在的经济硬着陆风险，年内降息次数≥4次的风险对冲需求正在上升。（广角观 察） ...

Core Viewpoint - Nomura Securities economists expect the Bank of Thailand to maintain its policy interest rate next week to assess the impact of the latest U.S. tariff dynamics [1] Group 1: Economic Conditions - Tightening credit standards and deteriorating loan quality in Thailand indicate a more pronounced negative feedback loop between a constrained financial environment and a sluggish economy [1] - Nomura Securities maintains its GDP growth forecast for Thailand at 1.8% for 2025, reflecting a cautious view on the negative feedback loop, vulnerability to U.S. tariffs, and rising domestic political uncertainty [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy Outlook - The firm anticipates that the Bank of Thailand will resume interest rate cuts in October and December of this year, as well as in the first quarter of 2026 [1]

2. 罗素投资：美联储料将维持利率不变，其将在9月议息会议前获得足够数据、评估时间及政策确定 性，从而在9月重启降息周期。 3. 富国银行：美联储料将维持利率不变，将会在今年秋季开始降息，至年底前共降息75个基点，这应有 助于缓解委员会面临的部分政治压力。 4. 宝盛银行：美联储料将维持利率不变，或在9月重启降息周期，私人消费停滞和投资计划减少将证 明，尽管通胀高于目标，降息也是合理的。 5. 澳新银行：美联储料将维持利率不变，鲍威尔可能在杰克逊霍尔年会上暗示利率正常化，叠加经济活 动、就业和通胀都在走弱，预计将在9月降息。 金十整理：机构前瞻美联储利率决议（一）——7月会议只是"预热"，9月还是12月降息成争论焦点 9月重启降息 1. 高盛集团：美联储料将维持利率不变，仍预计其将在9月、10月和12月的会议上连续三次降息25个基 点，明年还会有两次降息。 年底前不会降息 1. 法巴银行：美联储料将维持利率不变，并将在年底前维持利率不变，直至确信关税效应的不确定性已 经基本消除。 2. 裕信银行：美联储料将维持利率不变，今年将仅在12月降息一次，这基于我们对关税将推高通胀且经 济能避免衰退的判断。 3. 野村 ...