近期，联合国开发计划署（UNDP）发布了自美国加征关税生效以来的首份贸易量估算。报告显示，随 着关税引发价格上涨，东南亚对美出口总额或下降9.7%。其中，越南的潜在降幅高达19.2%，为东南亚 平均水平的两倍。 谈及在美关税政策下，亚洲国家将面临的风险和机遇，苏博文向21世纪经济报道记者表示，亚洲区域内 部的投资对区域国家而言是双赢，这既是亚洲国家发展的机遇，对于它们抵御外部风险也是至关重要。 苏博文向记者表示，在美国关税政策实施后，亚洲国家之间的贸易往来增多，同时亚洲对欧洲的出口表 现也明显好于对美出口，由此可见，亚洲经济体具有很强的灵活性。 南方财经 21世纪经济报道记者胡慧茵 11月12日，全球性金融服务机构野村在深圳举行"2025年野村中国投资年会"，据了解，这也是野村在中 国举办的第十七届中国投资年会。 会上，野村全球宏观研究主管及全球市场研究部联席主管苏博文表示，尽管今年美国关税飙升、地缘政 治摩擦以及财政压力不断增加，全球经济仍表现出显著的韧性。这种韧性主要得益于人工智能的革命性 转型、企业灵活调整对外贸易方向、货币与财政政策的适度宽松以及整体宽松的金融环境。 苏博文认为，在亚洲，通货膨胀可能会 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 17th Nomura China Investment Conference has officially opened in Shenzhen, highlighting China's remarkable achievements and ongoing reforms in the financial market [2][6]. Group 1: Event Overview - The conference is co-hosted by Nomura and its joint venture, Nomura Orient International Securities, attracting over 40 companies and more than 400 investors [6][8]. - The event features a strong lineup of speakers, including renowned experts and leaders from various industries and technology sectors, as well as Nomura's economists, analysts, and strategists [9]. Group 2: Key Themes and Discussions - The conference will delve into major topics such as global economic outlook, advancements in humanoid robots, and large language models [9]. - Discussions will also focus on the development of the Chinese economy and key industries, including consumer trends and technological progress in artificial intelligence and semiconductors [9]. Group 3: Nomura's Commitment - Nomura has been in the Chinese market for over 40 years and is committed to supporting the development of China's financial market through its global network and joint ventures [6][8]. - The company has been operating its joint venture, Nomura Orient International Securities, for nearly six years since its establishment in 2019 [8].

Core Viewpoint - Nomura Securities expects the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates in December, despite the impact of the U.S. government shutdown on the release of official data, recent indicators still show resilience in the labor market [1] Group 1 - Nomura Securities predicts no change in interest rates by the Federal Reserve in December [1] - The U.S. government shutdown has affected the publication of official economic data [1] - Recent economic indicators suggest that the labor market remains strong and resilient [1]

Group 1: Foreign Investment Focus - Since October, foreign institutions have conducted research on 309 A-share listed companies, primarily focusing on high-growth industries such as artificial intelligence, industrial automation, new energy, semiconductors, and consumer electronics [1][3] - Notably, 35 companies received attention from more than 10 foreign institutions, indicating a strong interest in companies like Huaming Equipment, United Imaging Healthcare, Lens Technology, and others [3] - Major foreign institutions involved in the research include Goldman Sachs, UBS, and Morgan Stanley, with Goldman Sachs alone researching over 50 A-share companies since October [5][6] Group 2: Company-Specific Insights - Huaming Equipment was the most researched company, with 82 foreign institutions focusing on its Q3 performance and future export orders [3][4] - United Imaging Healthcare attracted 71 foreign institutions, which were particularly interested in its performance in overseas markets and project deliveries [4] - Other companies like Lixun Precision, Han's Laser, and Jereh Group also received significant attention, reflecting a trend towards sectors like industrial machinery and medical equipment [1][3] Group 3: Economic Outlook and Policy Implications - Foreign institutions are optimistic about China's "14th Five-Year Plan," with Goldman Sachs raising its forecasts for China's export growth and GDP growth [2][6] - The focus on building a robust domestic market and enhancing advanced manufacturing capabilities is expected to positively impact A-shares, particularly in sectors related to self-sufficiency and emerging industries [6][7] - Goldman Sachs predicts that China's export volume will grow by 5% to 6% annually over the next few years, contributing to overall economic expansion [7]

Group 1 - Spending during the festival season from Sept. 22 to Oct. 21 increased by 8.5% compared to the same period last year, driven by a recent tax cut that spurred purchases across various categories including cars, electronics, kitchenware, and sweets [1][2][5] - Foreign investors reduced their holdings in Indian consumer stocks during the three months ending in September, despite the consumption tax cut [5] - Notable reductions in positions were observed in stocks such as Trent Ltd. and BrainBees Solutions Ltd., as reported by Morgan Stanley analysts [5] Group 2 - The sales surge should be approached with caution, as it may be influenced by pent-up demand, according to economists from Nomura Holdings Inc. [3] - Bank of America Corp. analysts indicated that while some headwinds have eased, factors such as slow income growth, a weak labor market, and a fading wealth effect continue to negatively impact sentiment and demand [3][6]

Core Insights - The article highlights the successful onboarding program for graduates at Nomura, emphasizing the importance of training and support in the early stages of their careers [1][5][9] Group 1: Training and Development - Nomura's onboarding program included a three-week training covering fixed income, rates, credit, risk management, financial statement analysis, modeling, and valuation [1] - The program also featured workshops on public speaking, career development, and personal branding, aimed at enhancing the graduates' professional skills [1] Group 2: Cultural Environment - The supportive culture at Nomura is noted as crucial for new employees, fostering an environment where colleagues are willing to guide and assist each other [5][8] - The fast-paced nature of the work environment requires employees to handle diverse client needs and market dynamics, which can be challenging but rewarding [8][11] Group 3: Personal Growth and Future Aspirations - Graduates expressed a desire to contribute to the company's future, with aspirations to guide and support new entrants in their career paths [9] - The involvement in AI transformation at Nomura is seen as an exciting opportunity, with the potential to reshape client services and the financial industry [10]

Core Viewpoint - Nomura Securities reports a sudden shift in the wording of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell after the recent interest rate cut, leading to the expectation that the Fed will not lower rates again in December [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Economic Outlook - Economists Jeremy Schwartz, Aichi Amemiya, and Ruchir Sharma believe that maintaining the current interest rates in December is the most likely scenario [1] - Despite the December outlook, they still anticipate three rate cuts in 2026 [1]

Market Overview - US stock index futures are all up before the market opens, with Dow futures rising by 0.27%, S&P 500 futures up by 0.03%, and Nasdaq futures increasing by 0.12% [1] - European indices show mixed results, with Germany's DAX up by 0.16%, UK's FTSE 100 down by 0.07%, France's CAC40 up by 0.14%, and Europe's Stoxx 50 up by 0.16% [2] - WTI crude oil prices fell by 1.24% to $60.55 per barrel, while Brent crude oil dropped by 1.17% to $64.14 per barrel [3] Key Market Events - President Trump is hosting a dinner in Tokyo with business leaders, including OpenAI and Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff, to celebrate Japan's significant investment in the US, amounting to $550 billion [4] - Japan's government has unveiled a $550 billion investment plan targeting sectors such as nuclear energy, AI, and semiconductors, which is expected to act as a major catalyst for the ongoing US stock market bull run [5] Company News - PayPal has signed an agreement with OpenAI to integrate its digital wallet into ChatGPT, allowing users to make payments directly through the AI tool. PayPal's Q3 revenue reached $8.417 billion, exceeding expectations [7] - NXP Semiconductors reported a 2% year-over-year decline in Q3 revenue to $3.17 billion but provided positive guidance for Q4, indicating a potential return to revenue growth [7] - Nomura's net profit fell by 6% in Q2, but strong performance in stock trading revenue is seen as a positive catalyst for the Japanese brokerage [8] - Novartis reported a 6% increase in operating profit for Q3, driven by new drug sales that offset the impact of the patent expiration of its heart drug Entresto [9] - Shengda Technology announced a core operating profit of $2.5 million for H1 2025, with its new energy vehicle insurance business growing by 111% [10] - UnitedHealth exceeded Q3 expectations and raised its full-year profit guidance, with a Q3 medical loss ratio of 89.9% [11] - Amazon plans to cut approximately 14,000 corporate jobs as part of its ongoing restructuring efforts influenced by AI advancements [12][13] Economic Data and Events - Upcoming economic data includes the US Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for October, scheduled for release at 22:00 Beijing time [14] - API crude oil inventory changes for the week ending October 24 will be reported at 04:30 Beijing time [15]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Group-wide net revenue was ¥515.5 billion, down 2% from the previous quarter, while income before income taxes fell 15% to ¥136.6 billion and net income decreased 12% to ¥92.1 billion [3] - Excluding gains from real estate sales in the previous quarter, net revenue increased by 10% and net income rose by 40%, indicating steady growth [3] - Earnings per share for the quarter were ¥30.49, and return on equity was 10.6%, achieving the quantitative target for 2030 of 8 to 10% for the sixth consecutive quarter [3][23] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Wealth Management net revenue increased 10% to ¥116.5 billion, with income before income taxes growing 17% to ¥45.5 billion, marking the highest income in about 10 years [8] - Investment Management net revenue reached ¥60.8 billion, up 20%, with income before income taxes amounting to ¥30.7 billion, up 43% [10] - Wholesale division net revenue was ¥279.2 billion, up 7%, with Global Markets net revenue increasing by 6% and Investment Banking net revenue rising by 15% [14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The balance of recurring revenue assets in Wealth Management saw a net inflow for the 14th consecutive quarter, reaching an all-time high [8] - Assets under management in Investment Management topped ¥100 trillion, with stable business revenue growing steadily [10] - The overall trend in the market showed strong client activity and revenue growth, particularly in equities and investment banking [15][16] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to transform Japan into an asset management powerhouse by building trust with clients and providing tailored asset management services [24] - The focus remains on self-sustained growth in Wholesale, with a commitment to maintaining a balance between investment opportunities and shareholder returns [30][56] - The management is optimistic about the pipeline for corporate actions and advisory services, expecting continued strength in these areas [60] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The management noted that stock indices in Japan and other major economies rose steeply, contributing to strong earnings [22] - The company expects the impact of phishing scams on profits to diminish, thanks to enhanced security measures [22] - The outlook for October indicates that net revenue in Wealth Management is above levels observed in the second quarter, with continued growth in investment products [24] Other Important Information - The company plans to pay a dividend of ¥27 per share, resulting in a dividend payout ratio of 40.3% [7] - Group-wide expenses increased by 4% to ¥378.8 billion, driven by higher compensation and benefits [17] - The CET1 ratio at the end of September was 12.9%, within the target range, but expected to decrease post-acquisition of Macquarie Group's U.S. asset management business [19] Q&A Session Summary Question: Regarding personnel expenses and CET1 ratio - The increase in compensation and benefits was attributed to bonuses linked to earnings and larger-than-usual retirement payments [29] - The CET1 ratio is expected to decline post-Macquarie acquisition, but the company remains committed to a 40% dividend payout and a total payout ratio of 50% or above [30] Question: Market revenue and risk-taking - The company is seeing strong performance in credit trading and has interesting deals in the pipeline, while being mindful of concentration risks [34] - The impact from the First Brands case was negligible, and the company conducts regular stress tests to assess risk [36] Question: October revenue environment and tax burden - Fixed income trends are strong, with expectations for continued revenue growth, while Wholesale division revenue is expected to be at similar levels to Q2 [44][47] - The increase in tax burden is due to various technical issues, with no specific details provided [46] Question: Equity product business trends and risk capacity - Equities performance has been strong across regions, with expectations for some normalization in the future [52] - The CET1 ratio post-Macquarie acquisition will allow for increased risk-taking capacity, with a focus on self-funding growth in Wholesale [56]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Group-wide net revenue was JPY 515.5 billion, down 2% from the previous quarter, while income before income taxes fell 15% to JPY 136.6 billion, and net income decreased by 12% to JPY 92.1 billion [3][4] - Excluding gains from real estate sales in the previous quarter, net revenue increased by 10%, and net income rose by 40%, indicating steady growth [3] - Earnings per share for the quarter were JPY 30.49, and return on equity was 10.6%, meeting the quantitative target for 2030 of 8%-10% for the sixth consecutive quarter [3][22] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Wealth Management net revenue increased by 10% to JPY 116.5 billion, with income before income taxes growing 17% to JPY 45.5 billion, marking the highest income in about 10 years [8] - Investment Management net revenue reached JPY 60.8 billion, up 20%, with income before income taxes amounting to JPY 30.7 billion, up 43% [10] - Wholesale division net revenue was JPY 279.2 billion, up 7%, with Global Markets net revenue increasing by 6% and Investment Banking net revenue rising by 15% [13] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Recurring revenue assets in Wealth Management totaled JPY 26.2 trillion at the end of September, with net inflows of JPY 289.5 billion [10] - Assets under management in Investment Management surpassed JPY 100 trillion, with net inflows of JPY 498 billion [11] - The Banking Division's net revenue remained flat at JPY 12.9 billion, with income before income taxes falling 12% to JPY 3.2 billion due to higher costs [15] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to transform Japan into an asset management powerhouse by building trust with clients and providing tailored asset management services [23] - The focus remains on self-sustaining growth in Wholesale, with a commitment to maintaining a balance between investment opportunities and shareholder returns [29][55] - The company is preparing for the introduction of a deposit sweep service in the next fiscal year, indicating a strategic move to enhance its banking services [15] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that stock indices in Japan and other major economies rose significantly, contributing to strong earnings and stable revenue sources [21][22] - The company expects continued strong performance in Wealth Management and Investment Banking, with a solid pipeline of corporate actions anticipated [24][60] - Management expressed confidence in maintaining a return on equity of at least 8% even in potential economic slowdowns, focusing on building earnings capability [62] Other Important Information - Group-wide expenses increased by 4% to JPY 378.8 billion, driven by higher compensation and benefits due to performance-linked bonuses [16] - The impact of phishing scams on profits was JPY 4.8 billion, with measures taken to enhance security and reduce future risks [20][21] - The Common Equity Tier 1 ratio at the end of September was 12.9%, within the target range, but expected to decrease post-Macquarie acquisition [18] Q&A Session Summary Question: Regarding personnel expenses and CET1 ratio - Management acknowledged the increase in compensation and benefits due to bonuses and retirement payments, and confirmed a commitment to a 40% dividend payout ratio [26][28] Question: Market revenue and risk-taking - Management indicated that credit trading contributed solidly to revenue, with a focus on high-quality deals while being mindful of concentration risks [32][34] Question: October revenue environment and tax burden - Management noted that Wholesale division revenue is strong but at a similar level to Q2, and explained the increase in tax burden due to various technical factors [42][44] Question: Investment Banking pipeline and ROE - Management highlighted a strong advisory pipeline in Japan and expected normalization in ECM, while confirming that base ROE is improving and discussions on target profit levels are ongoing [58][62]