Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Group-wide net revenue was ¥515.5 billion, down 2% from the previous quarter, while income before income taxes fell 15% to ¥136.6 billion and net income decreased 12% to ¥92.1 billion [3] - Excluding gains from real estate sales in the previous quarter, net revenue increased by 10% and net income rose by 40%, indicating steady growth [3] - Earnings per share for the quarter were ¥30.49, and return on equity was 10.6%, achieving the quantitative target for 2030 of 8 to 10% for the sixth consecutive quarter [3][23] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Wealth Management net revenue increased 10% to ¥116.5 billion, with income before income taxes growing 17% to ¥45.5 billion, marking the highest income in about 10 years [8] - Investment Management net revenue reached ¥60.8 billion, up 20%, with income before income taxes amounting to ¥30.7 billion, up 43% [10] - Wholesale division net revenue was ¥279.2 billion, up 7%, with Global Markets net revenue increasing by 6% and Investment Banking net revenue rising by 15% [14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The balance of recurring revenue assets in Wealth Management saw a net inflow for the 14th consecutive quarter, reaching an all-time high [8] - Assets under management in Investment Management topped ¥100 trillion, with stable business revenue growing steadily [10] - The overall trend in the market showed strong client activity and revenue growth, particularly in equities and investment banking [15][16] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to transform Japan into an asset management powerhouse by building trust with clients and providing tailored asset management services [24] - The focus remains on self-sustained growth in Wholesale, with a commitment to maintaining a balance between investment opportunities and shareholder returns [30][56] - The management is optimistic about the pipeline for corporate actions and advisory services, expecting continued strength in these areas [60] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The management noted that stock indices in Japan and other major economies rose steeply, contributing to strong earnings [22] - The company expects the impact of phishing scams on profits to diminish, thanks to enhanced security measures [22] - The outlook for October indicates that net revenue in Wealth Management is above levels observed in the second quarter, with continued growth in investment products [24] Other Important Information - The company plans to pay a dividend of ¥27 per share, resulting in a dividend payout ratio of 40.3% [7] - Group-wide expenses increased by 4% to ¥378.8 billion, driven by higher compensation and benefits [17] - The CET1 ratio at the end of September was 12.9%, within the target range, but expected to decrease post-acquisition of Macquarie Group's U.S. asset management business [19] Q&A Session Summary Question: Regarding personnel expenses and CET1 ratio - The increase in compensation and benefits was attributed to bonuses linked to earnings and larger-than-usual retirement payments [29] - The CET1 ratio is expected to decline post-Macquarie acquisition, but the company remains committed to a 40% dividend payout and a total payout ratio of 50% or above [30] Question: Market revenue and risk-taking - The company is seeing strong performance in credit trading and has interesting deals in the pipeline, while being mindful of concentration risks [34] - The impact from the First Brands case was negligible, and the company conducts regular stress tests to assess risk [36] Question: October revenue environment and tax burden - Fixed income trends are strong, with expectations for continued revenue growth, while Wholesale division revenue is expected to be at similar levels to Q2 [44][47] - The increase in tax burden is due to various technical issues, with no specific details provided [46] Question: Equity product business trends and risk capacity - Equities performance has been strong across regions, with expectations for some normalization in the future [52] - The CET1 ratio post-Macquarie acquisition will allow for increased risk-taking capacity, with a focus on self-funding growth in Wholesale [56]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Group-wide net revenue was JPY 515.5 billion, down 2% from the previous quarter, while income before income taxes fell 15% to JPY 136.6 billion, and net income decreased by 12% to JPY 92.1 billion [3][4] - Excluding gains from real estate sales in the previous quarter, net revenue increased by 10%, and net income rose by 40%, indicating steady growth [3] - Earnings per share for the quarter were JPY 30.49, and return on equity was 10.6%, meeting the quantitative target for 2030 of 8%-10% for the sixth consecutive quarter [3][22] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Wealth Management net revenue increased by 10% to JPY 116.5 billion, with income before income taxes growing 17% to JPY 45.5 billion, marking the highest income in about 10 years [8] - Investment Management net revenue reached JPY 60.8 billion, up 20%, with income before income taxes amounting to JPY 30.7 billion, up 43% [10] - Wholesale division net revenue was JPY 279.2 billion, up 7%, with Global Markets net revenue increasing by 6% and Investment Banking net revenue rising by 15% [13] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Recurring revenue assets in Wealth Management totaled JPY 26.2 trillion at the end of September, with net inflows of JPY 289.5 billion [10] - Assets under management in Investment Management surpassed JPY 100 trillion, with net inflows of JPY 498 billion [11] - The Banking Division's net revenue remained flat at JPY 12.9 billion, with income before income taxes falling 12% to JPY 3.2 billion due to higher costs [15] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to transform Japan into an asset management powerhouse by building trust with clients and providing tailored asset management services [23] - The focus remains on self-sustaining growth in Wholesale, with a commitment to maintaining a balance between investment opportunities and shareholder returns [29][55] - The company is preparing for the introduction of a deposit sweep service in the next fiscal year, indicating a strategic move to enhance its banking services [15] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that stock indices in Japan and other major economies rose significantly, contributing to strong earnings and stable revenue sources [21][22] - The company expects continued strong performance in Wealth Management and Investment Banking, with a solid pipeline of corporate actions anticipated [24][60] - Management expressed confidence in maintaining a return on equity of at least 8% even in potential economic slowdowns, focusing on building earnings capability [62] Other Important Information - Group-wide expenses increased by 4% to JPY 378.8 billion, driven by higher compensation and benefits due to performance-linked bonuses [16] - The impact of phishing scams on profits was JPY 4.8 billion, with measures taken to enhance security and reduce future risks [20][21] - The Common Equity Tier 1 ratio at the end of September was 12.9%, within the target range, but expected to decrease post-Macquarie acquisition [18] Q&A Session Summary Question: Regarding personnel expenses and CET1 ratio - Management acknowledged the increase in compensation and benefits due to bonuses and retirement payments, and confirmed a commitment to a 40% dividend payout ratio [26][28] Question: Market revenue and risk-taking - Management indicated that credit trading contributed solidly to revenue, with a focus on high-quality deals while being mindful of concentration risks [32][34] Question: October revenue environment and tax burden - Management noted that Wholesale division revenue is strong but at a similar level to Q2, and explained the increase in tax burden due to various technical factors [42][44] Question: Investment Banking pipeline and ROE - Management highlighted a strong advisory pipeline in Japan and expected normalization in ECM, while confirming that base ROE is improving and discussions on target profit levels are ongoing [58][62]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Group-wide net revenue was ¥515.5 billion, down 2% from the previous quarter, while income before income taxes fell 15% to ¥136.6 billion and net income decreased 12% to ¥92.1 billion [3] - Excluding gains from real estate sales in the previous quarter, net revenue increased by 10% and net income rose by 40%, indicating steady growth [3] - Earnings per share for the quarter were ¥30.49, and return on equity was 10.6%, achieving the quantitative target for 2030 for the sixth consecutive quarter [3][20] - Income before income taxes in international regions rose 63% to ¥44.9 billion, marking the ninth consecutive quarter of profitability [3] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Wealth Management net revenue increased 10% to ¥116.5 billion, with income before income taxes growing 17% to ¥45.5 billion, the highest in about 10 years [7] - Investment Management net revenue reached ¥60.8 billion, up 20%, and income before income taxes amounted to ¥30.7 billion, up 43% [9] - Wholesale division net revenue came to ¥279.2 billion, up 7%, with Global Markets net revenue increasing by 6% and Investment Banking net revenue rising by 15% [12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Recurring revenue assets in Wealth Management saw a net inflow of ¥289.5 billion, totaling ¥26.2 trillion at the end of September [8][9] - Investment Management achieved assets under management exceeding ¥100 trillion, with net inflows amounting to ¥498 billion [10] - The overall trend in the market showed strong client activity and revenue growth, particularly in equities and investment banking [12][20] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to transform Japan into an asset management powerhouse by building trust with clients and providing tailored asset management services [21] - The focus remains on self-sustained growth in Wholesale, with a commitment to maintaining a balance between investment opportunities and shareholder returns [27][41] - The management is proactive in enhancing security measures to protect against phishing scams, which have impacted profits [18][19] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The management noted that stock indices in Japan and other major economies rose steeply, contributing to strong earnings [20] - There is an expectation of continued strong performance in Wealth Management and Investment Banking, with a solid pipeline of opportunities [21][44] - The management is cautious about potential normalization in equity performance but remains optimistic about maintaining stable revenues [39][41] Other Important Information - The company plans to pay a dividend of ¥27 per share, resulting in a dividend payout ratio of 40.3% [6] - Group-wide expenses increased by 4% to ¥378.8 billion, with compensation and benefits rising due to performance-linked bonuses [15] - The CET1 ratio at the end of September was 12.9%, within the target range, but expected to decrease post-acquisition of Macquarie Group's U.S. asset management business [17] Q&A Session Summary Question: Concerns about personnel expenses and CET1 ratio - The CFO acknowledged that compensation and benefits increased due to bonuses linked to earnings and larger-than-usual retirement payments [26] - Regarding the CET1 ratio, the company remains committed to a 40% dividend payout and a total payout ratio of 50% or above, balancing shareholder returns with investment opportunities [27] Question: Market revenue and risk-taking - The CFO explained that while credit trading contributed solidly to revenue, the company is mindful of concentration risks and is selective in deal-making [29][30] Question: October revenue environment and tax burden - The CFO indicated that fixed income trends are strong, and overall Wholesale division revenue is expected to remain stable [35] - The increase in tax burden is attributed to various technical issues, with the CFO unable to provide detailed explanations [36] Question: Sustainability of equity product revenue - The CFO noted strong performance in equities across regions, with expectations for some normalization in the future [39][40] Question: Investment Banking pipeline and ROE - The CFO highlighted a strong advisory pipeline in Japan and international markets, with expectations for continued strength in DCM [45] - The base ROE is gradually improving, and while discussions about raising targets are ongoing, the focus remains on maintaining at least 8% ROE [47]

Financial Performance Highlights - Nomura's net revenue for FY2025/26 1H reached Y1,038.8 billion, an 11% increase year-over-year[13] - Income before income taxes for FY2025/26 1H was Y296.9 billion, up 26% YoY[13] - Net income for FY2025/26 1H increased by 18% YoY to Y196.6 billion[13] - The company's ROE for FY2025/26 1H was 11.3%[13] Segment Performance - Four segment income before income taxes rose to Y132.6 billion, a 25% increase QoQ[11] - Wholesale saw a 43% YoY increase in income before income taxes, reaching Y95.0 billion in FY2025/26 1H[13] - Banking income before income taxes decreased by 21% YoY to Y6.8 billion in FY2025/26 1H[13] Wealth Management - Wealth Management net revenue was Y116.5 billion, a 10% increase QoQ and a 4% increase YoY[26] - Recurring revenue assets in Wealth Management reached a record high[11] - Recurring revenue cost coverage ratio in Wealth Management reached 70%[11] Investment Management - Investment Management assets under management (AuM) reached a record high of Y101.2 trillion[11, 19] - Investment Management net revenue was Y60.8 billion, a 20% increase QoQ and an 8% increase YoY[48]

Core Viewpoint - Nomura, Japan's largest brokerage and investment bank, reported a surprising 6% decline in net profit for the second fiscal quarter ending in September, with a net profit of 92.1 billion yen (approximately 610.82 million USD), down from 98.4 billion yen in the same period last year. Despite this decline, analysts believe that the new economic stimulus policy being prepared by Japan's Prime Minister, which exceeds last year's scale of 13.9 trillion yen, could serve as a significant catalyst for the Japanese stock market, potentially leading to a new phase of performance and valuation expansion for Nomura [1]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Nomura's wholesale business showed the strongest performance, achieving a substantial year-on-year growth of 43% in the first half of the fiscal year, primarily driven by record revenues from stock trading, coinciding with a significant recovery in global stock market activities and IPO financing. The Nikkei 225 index has surpassed the 50,000 mark, with a year-to-date increase of 25%, outperforming the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices [2]. - Despite the record total assets under management reaching 101.2 trillion yen, the pre-tax profit from Nomura's investment management division declined by 4% year-on-year, contributing to the overall net profit decrease [2]. - The latest performance highlights a strong recovery in Nomura's wholesale business, which had been negatively impacted by market volatility in previous years but has shown more consistent profits in recent quarters due to a robust bull market in global stocks [2]. Group 2: Business Segments - Nomura's wholesale business consists of two main segments: Global Markets, which provides market-making, sales, and trading services related to fixed income and equity markets, and Investment Banking, which offers M&A advisory, equity financing, debt financing, and various risk/solution services to corporate, financial, and public sector clients [3]. - Following the end of the "investor wait-and-see period" triggered by U.S. President Trump's tariff announcements, the impact that previously suppressed large M&A transactions and IPO activities has significantly diminished, leading to a rise in advisory fees for Nomura's investment banking business as transaction activities rebound [3]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The economic stimulus policies led by Prime Minister Kishi are expected to be significantly beneficial for the Japanese stock market and particularly favorable for brokerage, asset management, and investment banking sectors, where Nomura is the largest player. The ongoing "super bull market" in Japanese stocks, driven by these policies, is anticipated to lead to substantial growth in brokerage and investment banking performance and transaction volumes, with continued recovery in equity financing and M&A activities [4]. - The recent "Sanae trade" phenomenon reflects market expectations for the revival of "Abenomics," characterized by strong fiscal stimulus, industrial support, and a cautious stance on tightening monetary policy, leading to significant volatility in stock, bond, and currency markets [5].

Financial Performance - Nomura Holdings, Inc. reported a 6-month net income attributable to shareholders of 196.6 billion yen, representing a 17.5% increase from the previous year [1] - Net income per share increased to 64.53 yen, compared to 54.58 yen in the prior year [1] - Income before income taxes for the six months ended September 30, 2025, was 296.9 billion yen [1] Revenue and Expenses - The company's net revenue reached 1.04 trillion yen, marking a 10.8% increase from the prior year [1] - Non-interest expenses rose by 5.7% year-over-year to 741.9 billion yen [1]

Core Viewpoint - India's transition away from discounted Russian crude oil is expected to be compensated by potential reductions in US tariffs, which may facilitate a trade deal with the US [1][2]. Group 1: Tariff and Trade Implications - A reduction in tariff rates below the ASEAN average of 19%-20% would enhance India's competitiveness in labor-intensive exports [2]. - The 25% punitive tariff on Russian oil purchases is anticipated to be lifted after November, while the reciprocal 25% tariff will remain until the end of the fiscal year in March [2]. Group 2: Oil Import Dynamics - India has imported approximately 1.8 million barrels per day from Russia this year, representing 36% of its total oil imports [6]. - Major Indian refiners are expected to reduce Russian oil imports to nearly zero following US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil [4]. Group 3: Economic Impact - The direct economic impact of switching from Russian oil is estimated to be around 0.04% of GDP, with a more significant indirect impact expected from rising global oil prices [4]. - A 10% increase in crude oil costs could raise inflation by about 30 basis points and reduce growth by approximately 15 basis points, assuming full pass-through to domestic prices [8].

Core Viewpoint - The comparison between Nomura Holdings (NMR) and Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) indicates that NMR is currently the more attractive option for value investors based on various valuation metrics [1][7]. Valuation Metrics - NMR has a forward P/E ratio of 9.13, significantly lower than HOOD's forward P/E of 74.75, suggesting that NMR is undervalued relative to its earnings potential [5]. - The PEG ratio for NMR is 3.41, while HOOD's PEG ratio is slightly higher at 3.47, indicating that both companies have similar expected earnings growth rates, but NMR is still more favorably valued [5]. - NMR's P/B ratio stands at 0.84, which is substantially lower than HOOD's P/B ratio of 14.47, further supporting the argument that NMR is undervalued [6]. Investment Outlook - Both companies currently hold a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy), reflecting positive revisions to their earnings estimates, but NMR's superior valuation metrics make it a more compelling choice for value investors [3][7]. - NMR has earned a Value grade of A, while HOOD has received a Value grade of F, highlighting the disparity in their valuation attractiveness [6].

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of insightful economic analysis and market predictions in today's complex financial environment [1] - The global macro research team at Nomura focuses on economic forecasting, including growth, inflation, fiscal conditions, and central bank policies [3] Group 1: Team Responsibilities and Approach - The core mission of the global macro research team is to conduct economic forecasts and identify market mispricing to provide strategic advice [3] - The research philosophy is that forecasting is more of an art than a science, incorporating data analysis, economic modeling, and geopolitical factors [3] - The team engages in field research and discussions with policymakers, scholars, and businesses to form comprehensive economic outlooks [3] Group 2: Leadership and Team Dynamics - The role of the global macro research head has shifted from direct research to management, focusing on guiding research direction and fostering team collaboration [5] - The team values stability and consistency, which allows for open challenges to predictive views and stress-testing of opinions [8] Group 3: Competitive Advantages - The team's ability to present bold, contrarian views sets them apart in the market, emphasizing the importance of original insights over consensus [8] - Nomura's strong presence in Asia is highlighted as a significant advantage, especially as the region's economic power grows [8] Group 4: Alignment with Corporate Mission - The research team aligns with Nomura's mission to leverage financial markets for global challenges and promote social prosperity [9] - By identifying strong economies and warning against weak markets, the team helps guide global capital towards productive areas [9]

Core Viewpoint - The "Kishida Market" is experiencing a cooling trend after an initial surge following the election of Kishida Sema. The Nikkei 225 index saw a significant rise of over 4% at the beginning of the week, marking its largest single-day gain in months, but the momentum has since diminished, entering a consolidation phase [1][5]. Market Dynamics - The market's upward movement post-Kishida's victory was primarily driven by expectations of fiscal expansion rather than monetary easing. The sustainability of this "Kishida Market" hinges on the new government's ability to maintain high approval ratings and political stability; otherwise, a historical reversal pattern may reoccur [5][6]. - Investor sentiment reflects caution, with speculative investors like Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) having over 2 trillion yen in long positions in Japanese stocks, limiting further accumulation and shifting to a "wait-and-see" mode. Macro hedge funds have also paused their buying of Japanese stocks, indicating limited incremental capital in the short term [6][11]. Historical Context - Historical data suggests that stocks related to new government policies typically outperform the market in the weeks following elections, but often experience a reversal in the subsequent three months. Notable exceptions occurred during the administrations of Junichiro Koizumi and Shinzo Abe, where stable high approval ratings led to sustained stock performance [13][16]. - The report emphasizes that the future trajectory of "Kishida-themed stocks" will largely depend on the political landscape. If Kishida can form a stable government and maintain high support, these stocks may see continued upward momentum driven by foreign investors; conversely, political instability could lead to significant declines, particularly in high-volatility stocks [16].