Group 1 - Goldman Sachs expects a 25 basis point rate cut, maintaining GDP forecasts for this year while lowering next year's GDP forecast and significantly reducing inflation predictions [1] - UBS anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut, with the last cut expected in July, bringing rates down to 1.75%, and a potential rate hike by the end of 2026 to address inflation risks [1] - Bank of America predicts a 25 basis point rate cut, noting that the market has already priced in the recent ECB rate cut, which is unlikely to have a significant impact on the euro [1] Group 2 - Nomura Securities forecasts a 25 basis point rate cut, with further cuts expected in July and September until rates reach 1.50%, while adjusting GDP and inflation predictions [1][2] - Deutsche Bank expects a 25 basis point rate cut, suggesting that the terminal rate for the easing cycle should remain at 1.50%, with a potential rate hike to 1.75% by the end of 2026 [2] - Pacific Investment Management Company anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut, indicating that the ECB is entering the final phase of its easing cycle, with current market pricing around 1.7% appearing reasonable [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company emphasizes the importance of a strong support network for employee mental health through initiatives like the "Mental Health Awareness Week" [2][9]. Group 1: Support Initiatives - The company has established various support channels for employees, including a Mental Health Advocate Program, where trained volunteers provide listening support and help colleagues access mental health resources [2]. - All full-time employees and eligible family members can reimburse expenses for mental health treatment through the company's medical insurance plan [3]. - The Employee Assistance Program (EAP) offers specialized services from experienced psychologists and counselors, covering areas such as interpersonal relationships, career development, parenting guidance, and bereavement counseling [4][5]. Group 2: Employee Engagement - The company encourages employees to expand their social networks to strengthen support systems and foster an open and inclusive work environment [8]. - Anita Leung, the joint executive initiator of the mental health network, highlights the need for awareness that everyone may need help at times and the importance of being a support for others [6][8].

智通财经5月19日电，野村认为，近期中美经贸会谈取得实质性进展对中国经济而言是一大利好，尤其 是对第二季度经济而言。野村将中国第二季度GDP同比增长预测从3.7%上调至4.8%，并略微将第三季 度和第四季度增长预测分别从3.6%上调至4.0%，将全年GDP增长预测从此前的4.0%上调至4.5%。具体 而言，野村将2025年中国出口增长预测从-2.0%上调至0.0%，零售增速预测从3.5%上调至3.7%。 野村上调中国GDP增长预测 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the trend of financial professionals, particularly in Japan, transitioning from traditional roles in securities firms to more lucrative positions in nightlife and entertainment, highlighting the challenges faced by the industry and the changing career paths of its employees [2][12]. Group 1: Japanese Securities Industry Trends - The news of a female securities sales champion transitioning to a high-profile role in a Tokyo nightclub has sparked discussions about the future of the financial industry, with many questioning the sustainability of their current roles [2][4]. - The Japanese securities industry has seen a significant reduction in workforce, with 22,000 fewer employees in just over a year, prompting many to seek alternative career paths [3][12]. - Kiko, a former top sales performer at Nomura Securities, exemplifies this trend by achieving success in the nightlife industry, where she has tripled her income and aims to start her own business [7][9]. Group 2: Domestic Securities Professionals' Responses - In contrast to their Japanese counterparts, domestic securities professionals are increasingly pursuing government positions or transitioning to roles in listed companies, such as secretaries or financial directors, due to industry pressures [12][14]. - The number of securities industry employees has decreased by 22,150, representing a 6.32% decline, with a notable drop in the number of brokers [14][15]. - The trend of financial professionals seeking alternative careers is evident, with many opting for civil service exams or moving to corporate roles, reflecting the industry's contraction and the need for job security [12][14]. Group 3: Survival Strategies in the Financial Sector - Financial professionals are adopting various strategies to cope with increasing performance pressures, including expanding their networks and exploring new client acquisition methods [18][19]. - The competitive environment has led to a focus on diversifying skills, with some employees engaging in side jobs or developing talents to enhance their marketability [19]. - The article highlights the challenges of maintaining client relationships and the pressure to innovate in client engagement strategies, as traditional methods become less effective [18][19].

Core Viewpoint - The recent US-China Geneva trade talks have led to significant progress, with both sides agreeing to substantially reduce bilateral tariffs, positively impacting market sentiment and Chinese stocks [1][4][5]. Group 1: Market Reactions - The Hang Seng Index surged on May 12, with technology and consumer stocks leading the gains, reflecting a rapid increase in market sentiment following the trade talks [1]. - Nomura became the first major Wall Street firm to upgrade its rating on Chinese stocks to "tactical overweight" after the trade talks, indicating a major positive for the Chinese stock market [4][5]. - Analysts are increasingly optimistic that the trade talks will facilitate more capital inflow into the Chinese stock market, with Citigroup's Pierre Lau projecting the Hang Seng Index to reach 25,000 points by year-end and 26,000 points in the first half of 2026 [1][4]. Group 2: Tariff Reductions - The joint statement from the US and China indicated that the US would cancel 91% of tariffs on Chinese goods and modify 34% of reciprocal tariffs, while China would suspend or cancel corresponding tariffs on US goods [4][5]. - The temporary reduction in tariffs is expected to provide short-term support to market sentiment, with analysts noting that the agreement exceeded market expectations [5]. Group 3: Investment Trends - There has been a notable increase in bullish bets on Chinese stocks by hedge funds, particularly US-based funds, in anticipation of positive outcomes from the trade negotiations [7]. - The MSCI China Index and CSI 300 Index saw increases of 2.4% and 1.9%, respectively, in the week leading up to the trade talks, indicating a positive market response [7]. - Goldman Sachs maintained an "overweight" rating on Chinese stocks, raising its earnings forecasts and target levels for major indices, reflecting confidence in the resilience of the Chinese market [10].

Core Viewpoint - Nomura Holdings reported a significant increase in Group net revenue for the fiscal year ending March 2025, indicating strong financial performance and growth potential in the investment banking sector [4]. Financial Performance - Group net revenue increased by 21% year-on-year [4]. - The conference call was held to discuss the fourth quarter and full-year operating results, highlighting the company's financial achievements [1]. Conference Call Details - The conference call was hosted by Takumi Kitamura, the Chief Financial Officer of Nomura Holdings, who provided an overview of the financial results [3]. - The call included participation from various securities firms, indicating a broad interest in the company's performance [1].

智通财经4月25日电，野村控股第四季度总营收1.08万亿日元，同比减少7.8%，净利润719.7亿日元，同 比增加27%。 ...

Market Overview - US stock index futures are all down, with Dow futures down 0.47%, S&P 500 futures down 0.31%, and Nasdaq futures down 0.26% [1] - European indices also show declines, with Germany's DAX down 0.07%, UK's FTSE 100 down 0.04%, France's CAC40 down 0.14%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 down 0.18% [2] - WTI crude oil increased by 1.25% to $63.05 per barrel, while Brent crude rose by 1.03% to $66.80 per barrel [2] US Stock Market Insights - Jefferies highlights a critical point for the S&P 500 index at 5500, which needs to be breached to recover from a 19% drop since February's historical high [3] - Christopher Wood from Jefferies suggests that the golden era for US stocks is over, predicting further declines in US equities, bonds, and the dollar [5] Automotive Industry - Japanese automakers saw a surge in US sales in March, with Toyota's sales up 8% to 231,336 units, Honda's up 13%, and Nissan's up 10% [4] Company Earnings Reports - Merck's Q1 earnings exceeded expectations with sales of $15.5 billion, although they anticipate a $200 million loss due to tariffs by 2025 [9] - American Airlines withdrew its 2025 profit guidance, reporting a Q1 net loss of $473 million, worsened by tariff pressures and government spending uncertainties [9] - Procter & Gamble lowered its annual organic sales growth forecast from 3%-5% to 2% due to tariff pressures and fluctuating consumer demand [10] - Sanofi's Q1 earnings surpassed expectations, driven by strong demand for its Dupixent drug, with sales of €9.89 billion [10] - IBM reported Q1 sales of $14.5 billion, exceeding expectations, but concerns remain regarding the impact of tariffs and government spending cuts on business [11] - Texas Instruments provided a positive Q2 earnings outlook, with expected revenue between $4.17 billion and $4.53 billion, driven by improved demand in industrial and automotive sectors [12] Technology Sector - Google Chrome's potential market value is estimated at over $50 billion, according to competitors, amid ongoing antitrust scrutiny [13] - TSMC plans to begin production using A14 chip technology in 2028, aiming to maintain its leadership in the semiconductor industry [13]

Core Viewpoint - Nomura Securities predicts that the Swiss National Bank will implement two more rate cuts this year, each by 25 basis points, contrary to their previous stance that no further cuts would occur after March [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy Actions - The Swiss National Bank is expected to take action to curb the strength of the Swiss franc, which is currently at its highest effective exchange rate since 2008 [1] - The anticipated rate cuts are seen as a response to the ongoing economic uncertainty driven by further rate cuts from the European Central Bank and U.S. tariff policies [1] - The expected actions in June and September meetings may signal a return to negative interest rates, marking an end to the normalization of monetary policy post-COVID-19 [1]

野村证券预计瑞士央行将再次采用负 利率，并预计将在九月份达到终端利率为-0.25%的水平。 ...