Core Insights - South Korea is experiencing a macroeconomic feast driven by AI, which generates dollars through exports, converting them into domestic liquidity that is ultimately absorbed by the real estate and stock markets [1] Semiconductor Supercycle - The global semiconductor industry is entering a structural uptrend driven by AI computing and cloud infrastructure, marking a significant departure from the cyclical rebounds seen in previous years [1][3] - Nomura forecasts that chip export growth will surge from approximately 25% in 2025 to 50-60% in 2026, indicating a robust demand environment [1][4] Economic Predictions - Nomura maintains a non-consensus view that the Bank of Korea will keep the terminal interest rate at 2.50% for an extended period, dismissing further rate cuts [3][21] - The GDP growth forecast for South Korea has been raised from 1.9% to 2.3% for 2026, surpassing market consensus due to the wealth effect from rising asset prices [3][13] - A significant trade surplus from chip exports is expected to lead to a surge in M1 money supply, resulting in price increases across various asset classes [3][15] Real Estate Supercycle - The real estate market in South Korea is entering a new supercycle, with the Seoul apartment price index surpassing previous highs, driven by low borrowing costs and accumulated savings [7][10] - Despite high nominal prices, the low actual borrowing costs are sustaining the market, as buyers are entering the market due to fear of missing out (FOMO) [10][11] Liquidity and Wealth Effects - The report highlights a self-reinforcing macroeconomic cycle where the global AI narrative translates into domestic asset stories, contributing to the upward pressure on asset prices [11][19] - The expected current account surplus from semiconductor trade could exceed $120 billion in 2026, significantly impacting domestic liquidity [4][15] Investment Strategies - Nomura suggests a bullish stance on capital-intensive tech stocks, particularly in the semiconductor sector and the AI value chain, while recommending a bearish outlook on interest rate cut expectations [14][21] - The automotive sector is expected to benefit from consumer recovery and recent tariff agreements between the U.S. and South Korea [21]

Core Insights - The market is currently influenced by leveraged ETFs and a highly unbalanced market, as noted by a respected strategist [1] Group 1 - Leveraged ETFs are contributing to market dynamics [1] - The market is characterized by significant imbalance [1]

近期，联合国开发计划署（UNDP）发布了自美国加征关税生效以来的首份贸易量估算。报告显示，随 着关税引发价格上涨，东南亚对美出口总额或下降9.7%。其中，越南的潜在降幅高达19.2%，为东南亚 平均水平的两倍。 谈及在美关税政策下，亚洲国家将面临的风险和机遇，苏博文向21世纪经济报道记者表示，亚洲区域内 部的投资对区域国家而言是双赢，这既是亚洲国家发展的机遇，对于它们抵御外部风险也是至关重要。 苏博文向记者表示，在美国关税政策实施后，亚洲国家之间的贸易往来增多，同时亚洲对欧洲的出口表 现也明显好于对美出口，由此可见，亚洲经济体具有很强的灵活性。 南方财经 21世纪经济报道记者胡慧茵 11月12日，全球性金融服务机构野村在深圳举行"2025年野村中国投资年会"，据了解，这也是野村在中 国举办的第十七届中国投资年会。 会上，野村全球宏观研究主管及全球市场研究部联席主管苏博文表示，尽管今年美国关税飙升、地缘政 治摩擦以及财政压力不断增加，全球经济仍表现出显著的韧性。这种韧性主要得益于人工智能的革命性 转型、企业灵活调整对外贸易方向、货币与财政政策的适度宽松以及整体宽松的金融环境。 苏博文认为，在亚洲，通货膨胀可能会 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 17th Nomura China Investment Conference has officially opened in Shenzhen, highlighting China's remarkable achievements and ongoing reforms in the financial market [2][6]. Group 1: Event Overview - The conference is co-hosted by Nomura and its joint venture, Nomura Orient International Securities, attracting over 40 companies and more than 400 investors [6][8]. - The event features a strong lineup of speakers, including renowned experts and leaders from various industries and technology sectors, as well as Nomura's economists, analysts, and strategists [9]. Group 2: Key Themes and Discussions - The conference will delve into major topics such as global economic outlook, advancements in humanoid robots, and large language models [9]. - Discussions will also focus on the development of the Chinese economy and key industries, including consumer trends and technological progress in artificial intelligence and semiconductors [9]. Group 3: Nomura's Commitment - Nomura has been in the Chinese market for over 40 years and is committed to supporting the development of China's financial market through its global network and joint ventures [6][8]. - The company has been operating its joint venture, Nomura Orient International Securities, for nearly six years since its establishment in 2019 [8].

Core Viewpoint - Nomura Securities expects the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates in December, despite the impact of the U.S. government shutdown on the release of official data, recent indicators still show resilience in the labor market [1] Group 1 - Nomura Securities predicts no change in interest rates by the Federal Reserve in December [1] - The U.S. government shutdown has affected the publication of official economic data [1] - Recent economic indicators suggest that the labor market remains strong and resilient [1]

Group 1: Foreign Investment Focus - Since October, foreign institutions have conducted research on 309 A-share listed companies, primarily focusing on high-growth industries such as artificial intelligence, industrial automation, new energy, semiconductors, and consumer electronics [1][3] - Notably, 35 companies received attention from more than 10 foreign institutions, indicating a strong interest in companies like Huaming Equipment, United Imaging Healthcare, Lens Technology, and others [3] - Major foreign institutions involved in the research include Goldman Sachs, UBS, and Morgan Stanley, with Goldman Sachs alone researching over 50 A-share companies since October [5][6] Group 2: Company-Specific Insights - Huaming Equipment was the most researched company, with 82 foreign institutions focusing on its Q3 performance and future export orders [3][4] - United Imaging Healthcare attracted 71 foreign institutions, which were particularly interested in its performance in overseas markets and project deliveries [4] - Other companies like Lixun Precision, Han's Laser, and Jereh Group also received significant attention, reflecting a trend towards sectors like industrial machinery and medical equipment [1][3] Group 3: Economic Outlook and Policy Implications - Foreign institutions are optimistic about China's "14th Five-Year Plan," with Goldman Sachs raising its forecasts for China's export growth and GDP growth [2][6] - The focus on building a robust domestic market and enhancing advanced manufacturing capabilities is expected to positively impact A-shares, particularly in sectors related to self-sufficiency and emerging industries [6][7] - Goldman Sachs predicts that China's export volume will grow by 5% to 6% annually over the next few years, contributing to overall economic expansion [7]

Group 1 - Spending during the festival season from Sept. 22 to Oct. 21 increased by 8.5% compared to the same period last year, driven by a recent tax cut that spurred purchases across various categories including cars, electronics, kitchenware, and sweets [1][2][5] - Foreign investors reduced their holdings in Indian consumer stocks during the three months ending in September, despite the consumption tax cut [5] - Notable reductions in positions were observed in stocks such as Trent Ltd. and BrainBees Solutions Ltd., as reported by Morgan Stanley analysts [5] Group 2 - The sales surge should be approached with caution, as it may be influenced by pent-up demand, according to economists from Nomura Holdings Inc. [3] - Bank of America Corp. analysts indicated that while some headwinds have eased, factors such as slow income growth, a weak labor market, and a fading wealth effect continue to negatively impact sentiment and demand [3][6]

Core Insights - The article highlights the successful onboarding program for graduates at Nomura, emphasizing the importance of training and support in the early stages of their careers [1][5][9] Group 1: Training and Development - Nomura's onboarding program included a three-week training covering fixed income, rates, credit, risk management, financial statement analysis, modeling, and valuation [1] - The program also featured workshops on public speaking, career development, and personal branding, aimed at enhancing the graduates' professional skills [1] Group 2: Cultural Environment - The supportive culture at Nomura is noted as crucial for new employees, fostering an environment where colleagues are willing to guide and assist each other [5][8] - The fast-paced nature of the work environment requires employees to handle diverse client needs and market dynamics, which can be challenging but rewarding [8][11] Group 3: Personal Growth and Future Aspirations - Graduates expressed a desire to contribute to the company's future, with aspirations to guide and support new entrants in their career paths [9] - The involvement in AI transformation at Nomura is seen as an exciting opportunity, with the potential to reshape client services and the financial industry [10]

Core Viewpoint - Nomura Securities reports a sudden shift in the wording of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell after the recent interest rate cut, leading to the expectation that the Fed will not lower rates again in December [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Economic Outlook - Economists Jeremy Schwartz, Aichi Amemiya, and Ruchir Sharma believe that maintaining the current interest rates in December is the most likely scenario [1] - Despite the December outlook, they still anticipate three rate cuts in 2026 [1]

Market Overview - US stock index futures are all up before the market opens, with Dow futures rising by 0.27%, S&P 500 futures up by 0.03%, and Nasdaq futures increasing by 0.12% [1] - European indices show mixed results, with Germany's DAX up by 0.16%, UK's FTSE 100 down by 0.07%, France's CAC40 up by 0.14%, and Europe's Stoxx 50 up by 0.16% [2] - WTI crude oil prices fell by 1.24% to $60.55 per barrel, while Brent crude oil dropped by 1.17% to $64.14 per barrel [3] Key Market Events - President Trump is hosting a dinner in Tokyo with business leaders, including OpenAI and Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff, to celebrate Japan's significant investment in the US, amounting to $550 billion [4] - Japan's government has unveiled a $550 billion investment plan targeting sectors such as nuclear energy, AI, and semiconductors, which is expected to act as a major catalyst for the ongoing US stock market bull run [5] Company News - PayPal has signed an agreement with OpenAI to integrate its digital wallet into ChatGPT, allowing users to make payments directly through the AI tool. PayPal's Q3 revenue reached $8.417 billion, exceeding expectations [7] - NXP Semiconductors reported a 2% year-over-year decline in Q3 revenue to $3.17 billion but provided positive guidance for Q4, indicating a potential return to revenue growth [7] - Nomura's net profit fell by 6% in Q2, but strong performance in stock trading revenue is seen as a positive catalyst for the Japanese brokerage [8] - Novartis reported a 6% increase in operating profit for Q3, driven by new drug sales that offset the impact of the patent expiration of its heart drug Entresto [9] - Shengda Technology announced a core operating profit of $2.5 million for H1 2025, with its new energy vehicle insurance business growing by 111% [10] - UnitedHealth exceeded Q3 expectations and raised its full-year profit guidance, with a Q3 medical loss ratio of 89.9% [11] - Amazon plans to cut approximately 14,000 corporate jobs as part of its ongoing restructuring efforts influenced by AI advancements [12][13] Economic Data and Events - Upcoming economic data includes the US Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for October, scheduled for release at 22:00 Beijing time [14] - API crude oil inventory changes for the week ending October 24 will be reported at 04:30 Beijing time [15]