Nvidia (NVDA) stock has gained about 32% over the past year, at the time of writing, Tuesday afternoon, Feb. 17, according to Yahoo Finance. Meanwhile, the SPDR S&P 500 index (SPY) is up about 11% in the same period. It is impressive that Nvidia has outpaced the S&P 500 by more than 20%, but even more so when we look at other members of the Magnificent 7: Meta is 13% down in the same period. Amazon is down 12%. Microsoft is down almost 3%. Apple is only up a little more than 7%. Tesla is up 14%. ...

Market Overview - Stocks showed a mixed performance with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up by about 18 basis points, NASDAQ Composite increasing by approximately 0.33%, and S&P 500 rising by 0.3% [2][4] - The Russell 2000 index also climbed into positive territory, reflecting a broader market recovery [3] - The bond market remained stable, with the 30-year T-bond yield down to 4.69% and the 10-year yield around 4.06% [3] Sector Performance - Financials led the large-cap sectors, with notable gains from JP Morgan (up 1.5%), Goldman Sachs, and American Express [4][8] - The technology sector saw mixed results, with Nvidia up nearly 2% and Apple rebounding by 3.76%, while Tesla and other mega-cap tech stocks faced declines [5][6] - Defensive sectors like staples, energy, and materials experienced losses of over 1% [4] Investment Sentiment - Investor sentiment is characterized as cautious, with a significant sector rotation observed from software to hardware and safer areas like materials and energy [10][11] - Small and mid-cap stocks are expected to show greater earnings growth compared to large caps, driven by AI infrastructure and other growth areas [18] BHP Financial Results - BHP reported a 22% increase in first-half profit, with copper now accounting for over 50% of its core earnings, indicating a strategic pivot towards copper production [33][34] - The company plans to increase copper production guidance for this year and next, capitalizing on strong copper prices [36] - BHP's operational performance remains robust, with record production and shipment in iron ore alongside copper growth [36][45] Copper Market Dynamics - The demand for copper is expected to grow significantly, driven by energy transition and digitization, with projections of a 70% increase over the next 25 years [38] - Supply challenges are anticipated due to lower grades and the complexity of new projects, enhancing the demand-supply dynamics for copper [39] Gold and Byproducts - BHP's copper deposits also yield significant byproducts, including gold, which contributed around $2 billion to earnings in the last half [41] - The company is actively seeking to unlock additional value from its portfolio, including a recent $4.3 billion silver stream agreement [42] Iron Ore Negotiations - BHP is engaged in tough negotiations with China's state-owned iron ore buyer but has managed to maintain strong production and price realization [45]

Core Insights - Nvidia has liquidated its positions in Applied Digital, Arm Holdings, and WeRide in the fourth quarter of 2025, while initiating new investments in Intel, Synopsys, and Nokia [1] Group 1 - Nvidia's divestment includes complete liquidation of shares in Applied Digital, Arm Holdings, and WeRide [1] - New investments made by Nvidia include Intel, Synopsys, and Nokia, indicating a strategic shift in its investment portfolio [1]

Core Insights - Meta Platforms Inc. has agreed to deploy "millions" of Nvidia chips over the coming years, strengthening the partnership between the two AI industry giants [1][5] - Meta, which contributes approximately 9% of Nvidia's revenue, has committed to using more AI processors and networking equipment from Nvidia [1] - Meta plans to utilize Nvidia's Grace CPU as the core of standalone computers for the first time [1] Group 1 - CEO Mark Zuckerberg stated that Nvidia's Vera Rubin technology will help bring "personal superintelligence to everyone in the world" [3][5] - The deployment will include AI accelerator products based on Nvidia's current Blackwell architecture and the upcoming Vera Rubin architecture [3][5] - Following the announcement, both Nvidia and Meta saw their stock prices rise by over 1%, while Nvidia's competitor AMD dropped by more than 3% [3][5]

Core Insights - The rapid advancement of AI technology is significantly driven by the construction of massive data centers, which are heavily taxing the power grid [1] - There is a growing concern regarding whether the AI revolution will necessitate the establishment of numerous large data centers consuming terawatts of power [1] Group 1: Industry Impact - The construction of data centers is a critical factor in the acceleration of AI development [1] - The energy consumption of these data centers raises questions about sustainability and the future of AI infrastructure [1] Group 2: Market Position - The article indicates a beneficial short position in NVIDIA (NVDA) while also holding a long position in AMD as a paired trade [2] - The author emphasizes a focus on stocks that represent the best investment ideas, with a holding period of 6-18 months [1]

Group 1 - The technology sector experienced a general decline, with major stocks such as Tesla, Micron Technology, Google, Nvidia, and Meta all reporting significant drops in their share prices [2] - Tesla (TSLA.US) fell over 3%, while Micron Technology (MU.US) and Google (GOOG.US, GOOGL.US) both decreased by more than 2% [2] - Nvidia (NVDA.US) and Meta (META.US) saw declines of over 1% [2] Group 2 - The overall U.S. stock market also declined, with the Nasdaq Composite dropping over 0.8%, the S&P 500 falling more than 0.6%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreasing by 0.5% [2]

Economic Outlook - Fitch Ratings projects that U.S. federal deficits will remain elevated through the 2027 fiscal year, with little political will for fiscal consolidation ahead of the November 2026 midterm elections [2] - The Trump administration may use alternative authorities to impose new tariffs, which could increase inflationary pressures while addressing trade imbalances [3] Technology Sector - Meta Platforms announced a significant agreement to acquire and deploy "millions" of chips from Nvidia, including Blackwell GPUs and Grace CPUs, aiming to enhance AI capabilities for billions of users [4][5] - This partnership solidifies Nvidia's market leadership, although it raises concerns about the substantial capital expenditure required for AI advancements, contributing to volatility in tech indices [5] Energy Sector - Devon Energy reported a strong Q4 with $702 million in free cash flow, exceeding analyst expectations for production and earnings, with an average production of 851,000 barrels of oil equivalent (Boe) per day [6] - The company anticipates a spending outlook of $3.5 billion to $3.7 billion for 2026, despite forecasting a production cut of 10,000 Boe per day in Q1 due to severe winter weather [7] Investment Strategies - Carl Icahn has shifted his investment strategy, reducing exposure in telecommunications and specialty chemicals by cutting stakes in EchoStar and International Flavors & Fragrances, while increasing holdings in Centuri Holdings and Monro, Inc. [8][9] - Netflix Co-CEO Ted Sarandos indicated a cautious approach to media industry consolidation, preferring to wait for Paramount Global's next move before making any strategic decisions [9] Global Macro Trends - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is facing pressure to consider a rate hike as inflation remains at 3.1%, slightly above the target band [10] - Wall Street is experiencing high volatility, influenced by AI-driven growth potential and risks from rapidly evolving technology and trade policies [11]

Core Viewpoint - Tiger Global Management has significantly reduced its holdings in several major U.S. tech stocks during the fourth quarter of 2025, indicating a trend among large institutional investors to decrease exposure to technology giants [1][2]. Group 1: Tiger Global Management's Holdings - Tiger Global reduced its stake in TSMC by 18.6%, ending the quarter with 3.7 million shares, marking the largest reduction among its holdings [1]. - The firm cut its Microsoft holdings by 16.4% to 5.5 million shares, and its Amazon stake decreased by 9.3% to 10 million shares [1]. - Nvidia holdings were down by 6% to 1.1 million shares, while Meta Platforms' Class A shares saw a slight reduction of 2.4% to 2.8 million shares [1]. Group 2: Other Institutional Investors' Actions - UBS also reduced its positions in several tech stocks during the same quarter, including an 11.47% cut in Nvidia and a 10.57% reduction in Apple [1]. - Goldman Sachs similarly decreased its holdings in Microsoft, Tesla, Broadcom, and Meta [1]. - SoftBank completely divested its holdings in Nvidia during the fourth quarter of 2025, while Berkshire Hathaway reduced its Apple stake by 4.3% to approximately 228 million shares [1]. Group 3: Reporting Context - The 13-F filings reflect the holdings of institutional investors as of December 31, 2025, and must be submitted within 45 days after the end of each fiscal quarter, not accounting for any changes in the first quarter of 2026 [2]. - Tiger Global, founded in 2001 by Chase Coleman, is known for its significant investments in the technology and internet sectors, making its portfolio adjustments closely watched by the industry [2].

Group 1: Nvidia - Nvidia's stock rose by 1.18% with a trading volume of $29.328 billion, following the announcement of a long-term agreement to sell millions of AI chips to Meta [1][10] - The agreement includes current Blackwell chips and upcoming Rubin AI chips, as well as standalone Grace and Vera processors [10][11] - Nvidia aims to target emerging fields such as AI agents and processors for everyday tech tasks, with Meta being one of its top four customers, accounting for 61% of its revenue in the last fiscal quarter [11] Group 2: Tesla - Tesla's stock fell by 1.63% with a trading volume of $24.061 billion, as it reported 14 accidents involving its autonomous taxis in Austin over eight months [12] - The accidents included property damage, minor injuries, and hospitalizations, with plans to expand services to seven more cities by mid-year [12] - The first accident occurred in July, initially reported as property damage, but later updated to include injuries [12] Group 3: Apple - Apple's stock increased by 3.17% with a trading volume of $15.209 billion, as reports emerged about the accelerated development of three new wearable devices [13] - The devices include smart glasses, a pendant that can be worn on clothing, and AirPods with enhanced AI capabilities, all centered around the Siri digital assistant [13] - Each product will integrate with Apple's iPhone and rely on a diverse camera system [13] Group 4: Micron Technology - Micron's stock decreased by 2.89% with a trading volume of $11.366 billion, as it plans to invest $200 billion to expand production capacity amid severe supply constraints in the storage industry [14] - The company is expanding its Boise facility by over 500 acres, which will include the construction of two new chip factories [14][15] - Micron's stock has surged over five times since April of last year, reaching approximately $414, with a market capitalization nearing $500 billion [15] Group 5: Other Companies - Berkshire Hathaway disclosed a reduction of 10,294,956 shares in Apple, bringing its total to 227,917,808 shares [14] - Amazon's stock rose by 1.19% with a trading volume of $13.585 billion, despite experiencing a nine-day decline that resulted in a market value loss of over $450 billion [14] - Lumentum's stock increased by 6.70% with a trading volume of $3.279 billion, being recognized as a key player in AI computing supply chains [16]

Group 1 - The U.S. and Iran have made progress in nuclear negotiations in Geneva, with Iran planning to submit a new proposal in two weeks, indicating a lower likelihood of military conflict in the near term [4][6][21] - Iran has reached a general consensus with the U.S. on the basis of a potential nuclear agreement that would lift sanctions on Tehran and reduce the risk of war in the Middle East [6][21] - The proposed increase in New York City's property tax by 9.5% is the first in over two decades, aimed at addressing a budget shortfall of approximately $5 billion, affecting over 3 million residential units and over 100,000 commercial units [8][23] Group 2 - Apple is accelerating the development of three new AI-driven wearable devices: smart glasses, a pendant, and AI-enhanced AirPods, all designed to work with Siri and integrate with iPhones [10][26] - Meta has expanded its partnership with NVIDIA to incorporate millions of AI chips in its data centers, marking the first large-scale independent deployment of NVIDIA's Grace CPU [12][28] - Anthropic has launched a new AI model, Claude Sonnet 4.6, which enhances computer operation capabilities, allowing for more complex tasks such as filling out web forms and coordinating information across multiple browser tabs [15][30] Group 3 - Barclays analysts predict that the market for AI-driven robotics and autonomous machines could reach a trillion-dollar scale by 2035, with self-driving cars leading the way, followed by drones and more complex humanoid robots [17][33] - The advancements in AI-enabled robotics signify a shift from a digital-centric paradigm to a more diverse and deeper value chain in the coming decade [17][33]