Core Viewpoint - Pop Mart (09992) has seen a stock price increase of over 4%, currently trading at 273.8 HKD with a transaction volume of 1.987 billion HKD, driven by strong consumer interest and sales performance of new product launches [1] Group 1: Sales Performance - On October 9, Pop Mart's new product series, WHY SO SERIOUS, and MOKOKO sold out immediately upon release [1] - The secondary market prices for the WHY SO SERIOUS hidden items reached 1999 HKD and 2099 HKD, significantly higher than the original price of 159 HKD [1] Group 2: Market Outlook - Morgan Stanley's recent report indicates that Pop Mart is expected to experience multiple consumption peaks in the coming months, including China's National Day and Western holidays such as Halloween, Thanksgiving, and Christmas [1] - The firm anticipates sustained sales momentum due to sufficient inventory of popular products, new product launches, and store expansions [1]

Market Overview - The IP toy market in China is rapidly reshaping the consumer landscape, with a market size projected to reach 67.8 billion yuan in 2024 and expected to exceed 100 billion yuan by 2027, reaching nearly 130 billion yuan by 2029 [2] - IP toys are defined as trend toys with high recognition and independent intellectual property, primarily targeting adult consumers rather than children [2] - The industry has evolved through three key phases: the initial phase from the late 1990s to early 2000s, the exploration phase from 2010 to 2015, and the maturity phase from 2016 to the present [2] Industry Structure - The IP toy industry can be categorized into three main types and ten subcategories based on IP sources: original IP, licensed IP, and public symbol IP [8] - The industry chain consists of upstream IP sources, midstream IP operation and production, and downstream sales channels, with large enterprises often integrating the entire chain [8] Company Case Studies - Pop Mart, established in 2010, transitioned from trend retail to IP commercialization, launching the MOLLY blind box series in 2016, which spurred explosive growth [10] - LABUBU's success is attributed to its unique design inspired by Nordic mythology and effective marketing strategies, including collaborations with celebrities [14] - Bandai Namco's "IP Axis Strategy" focuses on maximizing IP value across various media, achieving significant sales growth through diversified business forms [17] Consumer Insights - The primary consumer demographic for IP toys is young adults aged 21-35, with a significant portion of consumers being middle-class individuals with monthly incomes between 6,000 and 10,000 yuan [26] - Over 60% of consumers frequently purchase blind boxes and figurines, with a strong inclination towards collection and display [26] - Social media platforms are the primary source of information for consumers, with immersive unboxing videos being the most effective marketing format [27] Social Media Trends - The social media presence of IP toys is expected to rise significantly by 2025, driven by key events and new product launches [22] - Different social media platforms have distinct focuses, with Xiaohongshu emphasizing refined sharing and Douyin focusing on entertainment-driven engagement [25] Future Opportunities - The future of the IP toy market is promising, with over 50% of consumers expecting to increase their spending on IP toys [28] - The overseas market presents new growth opportunities, particularly in Europe and the U.S., although challenges such as cultural adaptation and intellectual property protection remain [28] - Digital toys are emerging as a new frontier, leveraging blockchain technology and the metaverse for enhanced consumer engagement [29] Industry Challenges - The industry faces challenges including regulatory uncertainties, technological barriers, and issues related to product quality and homogenization [29] - Companies must balance innovation with compliance to foster long-term value in the digital toy sector [29] Diversification Strategies - Brands are increasingly diversifying their product offerings to break through growth ceilings, with examples including Pop Mart's entry into the luxury jewelry market and Disney's layered licensing ecosystem [30] - Challenges in diversification include brand dilution, supply chain adaptation, and consumer price sensitivity [30]

Core Viewpoint - Pop Mart (09992) has seen a significant increase in stock price, rising over 4% during trading, attributed to the launch of new Halloween-themed products and strong consumer demand during recent holidays [1] Group 1: Product Launch and Sales Performance - On October 9, Pop Mart will launch the Halloween-themed WHYSOSERIOUS series online, featuring blind box plush keychains priced at 159 yuan and CRYBABY plush tags priced at 179 yuan [1] - The recent release of the "Starry Person Delicious Moments Series" blind box on September 29 sold out instantly on the official platform, indicating strong consumer interest and demand in the secondary market [1] Group 2: Market Trends and Future Outlook - Morgan Stanley's recent report highlights that Pop Mart is expected to benefit from multiple upcoming consumer peak seasons, including China's National Day and Western holidays such as Halloween, Thanksgiving, and Christmas [1] - The firm anticipates sustained sales momentum due to ample inventory of popular products, new product launches, and store expansions [1] - The IP product market is noted to be substantial and growing, with Pop Mart's differentiated business model and competitive advantages positioned to capture the increasing "kidult" consumer demand [1]

Core Viewpoint - Pop Mart (09992) has seen a stock price increase of over 4% during trading, currently up 3.53% at HKD 263.8, with a trading volume of HKD 3.176 billion [1] Group 1: Product Launch and Sales Performance - On October 9, Pop Mart will launch a Halloween-themed WHYSOSERIOUS series of new products online, including blind boxes and plush keychains priced at RMB 159 and RMB 179 respectively [1] - During the National Day holiday, Pop Mart's IP "Starry Person" showcased multiple pop-up stores and themed exhibitions in cities like Shanghai, Beijing, and Chengdu [1] - The new product "Starry Person Delicious Moments Series" blind box sold out instantly on the official platform on September 29, with a significant surge in demand in the secondary market [1] Group 2: Market Outlook and Consumer Trends - Morgan Stanley's recent report indicates that Pop Mart will experience several consumption peaks in the coming months, including China's National Day and Western holidays such as Halloween, Thanksgiving, and Christmas [1] - The firm expects sustained sales momentum due to sufficient inventory of popular products, new product launches, and store expansions [1] - Morgan Stanley believes that the market size for IP products is substantial and continues to grow, and Pop Mart's differentiated business model and competitive advantages position it well to capture the increasing "kidult" consumer demand [1]

Core Insights - Foreign investors are uncertain about China's ability to deliver reliable returns, particularly in the consumer brand sector, despite the vast potential of its 1.4 billion population [2][3] - Chinese households are reducing nonessential spending, influenced by a market flooded with high-quality goods at discounted prices [3] Company Highlights - Black Ant Capital, a venture capital firm established in 2016, has successfully invested in notable Chinese consumer brands such as Pop Mart, Laopu Gold, and BusyMing Group [4][5] - Pop Mart, known for its blind-box toys, has a market value of 344.4 billion Hong Kong dollars ($44.2 billion), while Laopu Gold's market capitalization has surged to $15 billion, reflecting a nearly 17-fold increase from its listing price [5] - BusyMing is preparing for an upcoming IPO, indicating strong investor interest in its business model [5] Investment Performance - BA Capital's funds have outperformed most regional peers, ranking in the top quartile of 479 private equity and venture capital funds in emerging Asia as of Q1 [6] - The firm has seen 80 to 90% of its exits come through IPOs, emphasizing a focus on investing in top-tier companies [22] Consumer Trends - Young consumers are increasingly drawn to products that provide emotional fulfillment, which has been a key driver for Pop Mart's success [10][11] - Laopu Gold's rise is attributed to a shift towards homegrown luxury and a desire for quality products that reflect traditional Chinese culture [14][15][16] - The budget snacks market, represented by BusyMing, is benefiting from lower pricing strategies and increased spending power in lower-tier cities [18] Future Outlook - The demand for emotionally resonant products, such as those offered by Pop Mart, is expected to persist, with a focus on enhancing consumer connections through innovative experiences [13] - Laopu Gold aims to maintain its Eastern identity while adapting to new markets, similar to how Italian brands balance modernity with cultural roots [17] - There is a growing interest in self-care and emotional well-being among consumers, alongside a fascination with products inspired by Chinese culture [19]

2025年9月26号这一天，叶国富和他的TOP TOY把港交所搅得不安生，IPO招股书一递，3亿美元的募资 目标，102亿港元的估值，气氛瞬间紧绷，几乎有种"新王登基"的既视感，这不是普通的资本动作，而 是一次正面对垒——TOP TOY能不能复制泡泡玛特的4000亿神话，市场全在盯着。 名创优品的创始人叶国富，这回真的是把赌注压在了潮玩上，回顾时间线，2022年7月，名创优品刚在 港交所完成二次上市，叶国富当时就在公开场合放话，三年内要让TOP TOY独立上市，这一刻他兑现 了承诺，时间卡得死死的，市场也有点被他这份执行力震住了。 TOP TOY诞生于2020年，彼时泡泡玛特刚上市没几天，行业热度正高，TOP TOY就立刻在广州开了首 店，开业前三天销售额破百万，大家都说这开局有点狠，行业也隐隐感受到新玩家的野心和压力。 这些年TOP TOY的增长速度确实很快，2022年营收6.79亿，2025年冲到19.09亿，还实现了扭亏为盈， 2022年亏0.37亿，2023年赚2.9亿，2025年又涨到3.96亿，这种成长曲线，行业里少见，很多人看着都眼 红。 门店也在扩张，截至2025年9月19号，全国299家，海 ...

股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年9月30日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 泡泡瑪特國際集團有限公司 呈交日期: 2025年10月3日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 第 2 頁 共 10 頁 v 1.1.1 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 09992 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 5,000,000,000 | USD | | 0.0001 USD | | 500,000 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | 0 | | | USD | | 0 | | 本月底結存 | | | 5,000,000,000 | USD | | 0.0001 USD | | 500,000 | 本月 ...

Core Insights - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that Pop Mart's U.S. market is still in its early development stage, with no other toy/hobby stores offering a similar consumer experience [1][11] - Five out of six visited stores had higher foot traffic and transaction volumes than nearby stores, second only to Apple stores [10] Store Visits - Morgan Stanley analysts visited six Pop Mart stores in New York and New Jersey, including locations in American Dream Mall and Jersey City [2][4] Key Findings - **New Customer Base and Product Variety**: Many new customers inquired about the "blind box" products, indicating that retail stores effectively promote Pop Mart's diverse IP/product portfolio [6] - **Store Layout and Customer Base**: Most of the 50 U.S. stores are located in residential areas, with fewer in core commercial centers, highlighting the need for continued expansion to build a solid core customer base [6] - **Operational Optimization**: Some stores show good profitability, but there is room for improvement, such as small store sizes (around 100 square meters) and the need for enhanced digital operations [6] Customer Demographics - Compared to other markets, a higher proportion of children (accompanied by adults) are observed in U.S. stores, likely due to stronger purchasing power among American consumers [9] Foot Traffic and Transaction Volume - Most visited stores maintained significant foot traffic even without selling Labubu plush toys, with five out of six stores outperforming nearby competitors [10] Market Competition - Currently, no other toy/hobby stores provide a consumer experience comparable to Pop Mart, characterized by the joy of unboxing, attractive product designs, and a rich IP matrix [11] Popular IPs and Product Display - In addition to Labubu, popular IPs include Crybaby, Skullpanda, Hirono, Twinkle Twinkle, Dimoo, and some licensed Japanese anime/Disney products [12] - Each store offers a different selection of products, allowing for regular product rotation to maintain freshness [16] Valuation and Market Outlook - Morgan Stanley rates Pop Mart as a preferred choice in the consumer sector in China/Hong Kong, with a target price of HKD 382 [17][18] - The valuation method anticipates a target P/E ratio of 42 times for 2025, considering the company's global expansion potential [20] - Factors driving potential valuation increases include sustained sales momentum in China and overseas, successful launches of popular products and IPs, and growth in revenue per square meter [21]

Core Viewpoint - TOP TOY, which opened its first store in 2020, is now aiming for an IPO within five years, positioning itself as a platform for various products and IPs, contrasting with Bubble Mart's closed ecosystem approach [2][14]. Market Valuation - As of July 2025, TOP TOY completed a Series A funding round of approximately $60 million, resulting in a post-money valuation of $1.3 billion (approximately HKD 10.2 billion) [2]. - In comparison, Bubble Mart's market capitalization exceeds HKD 350 billion, making it 35 times larger than TOP TOY [2]. Financial Performance - TOP TOY's revenue for 2022, 2023, and 2024 was CNY 679 million, CNY 1.461 billion, and CNY 1.909 billion, respectively, with net profits of -CNY 38.38 million, CNY 212 million, and CNY 294 million [2]. - In the first half of 2025, TOP TOY reported revenue of CNY 1.36 billion and a profit of CNY 180 million, reflecting year-on-year growth of 58.5% and 26.8%, respectively [2][7]. Comparison with Bubble Mart - Bubble Mart's revenue for the first half of 2025 was CNY 13.88 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 204.4%, and a net profit of CNY 4.57 billion, showing a growth of 396.5% [3]. - Bubble Mart's revenue and profit are 10 times and 25 times that of TOP TOY, respectively [3]. Membership and Store Count - As of mid-2025, Bubble Mart had 59.12 million registered members, while TOP TOY had over 10 million [3]. - Bubble Mart operates 571 stores globally, with 443 in China and 128 overseas, in addition to 2,597 vending machines [3]. - TOP TOY has 299 stores, with 15 located overseas, covering markets such as Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Japan [4]. Revenue Sources - TOP TOY's revenue is primarily generated from franchisees and distributors, accounting for 74.3% of its income in the first half of 2025 [4]. - In contrast, Bubble Mart's revenue is mainly from direct sales [4]. Profitability Metrics - For the first half of 2025, Bubble Mart's gross margin exceeded 70%, and net margin surpassed 30%, while TOP TOY's gross margin was 32% and net margin only 13% [6]. - TOP TOY's self-developed IP products generated CNY 6.1 million in revenue in the first half of 2025, accounting for less than 1% of total revenue [12]. IP Strategy - TOP TOY has 17 proprietary IPs and 43 licensed IPs, while Bubble Mart's proprietary products accounted for 99.1% of its total revenue in the first half of 2025 [8][10]. - The scarcity of Bubble Mart's IPs allows for higher pricing power compared to TOP TOY's broader but less impactful IP portfolio [8][10].

Core Insights - TOP TOY, a潮玩 brand under Miniso, has officially initiated its IPO process by submitting its prospectus to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to achieve the goal set by founder Ye Guofu to go public within three years [1][2] - The潮玩 market has been rapidly growing, with competitors like Pop Mart creating significant market presence, and TOP TOY's entry is expected to intensify the competition [1][2] Company Performance - TOP TOY has shown remarkable growth, with revenue jumping from 6.79 billion RMB in 2022 to 19.09 billion RMB in 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 67.7% [3] - The company transitioned from a loss in 2022 to profitability in 2023, with net profit projected to reach 2.94 billion RMB in 2024, and gross margin increasing from 19.9% in 2022 to 32.7% in 2024 [3][4] - The number of stores has expanded from 117 in 2022 to 293 in 2024, supported by Miniso's extensive retail network [3] Market Position and Challenges - Despite rapid growth, TOP TOY remains heavily reliant on Miniso, with 45.5% of its revenue coming from the Miniso ecosystem as of mid-2025, raising concerns about its independence post-IPO [4] - The潮玩 industry is increasingly competitive, with self-owned IP becoming a critical differentiator. TOP TOY's reliance on licensed IPs poses risks, as evidenced by its lower revenue from self-owned IP compared to competitors like Pop Mart [5][7][10] International Expansion - TOP TOY has begun to focus on international markets, aiming for overseas sales to exceed 50% within five years and planning to open 1,000 stores globally [9] - Initial success has been noted in Southeast Asia, with profitable openings in Thailand and Malaysia, but overall overseas revenue remains low compared to competitors [9][10] Industry Outlook - The潮玩 market is projected to grow significantly, with estimates suggesting a market size of 825 billion RMB by 2025 and 2,133 billion RMB by 2030, indicating a CAGR of 20.9% [11] - The competition is shifting towards IP ecosystem development and global strategies, emphasizing the need for brands to cultivate their own successful IPs to thrive in the market [11]