证券研究报告/投资策略 潮玩千亿赛道空间广阔，文化与全球化打开成长天花板 潮玩行业研究 投资要点 ➢ 行业步入发展新阶段，创新驱动特点凸显 当前，行业正处于发展期与成熟期的过渡阶段，创新驱动的作用愈发凸显。IP创 作不再限于单一艺术风格，而是深度融合国风文化、二次元、科幻、潮流艺术等 多元素材。科技融合成为产品体验升级的重要推手，AR/VR交互、AI个性化定制、 数字藏品等创新应用不断拓展潮玩的体验边界。商业模式也持续迭代，从盲盒为 主发展到预售、众筹、会员制、二手交易平台等复合体系。同时，中国潮玩企业 逐步摆脱传统代工角色，向价值链上游攀升，东莞、深圳等产业带已从"世界工 厂"转型为"IP创新策源地"，涌现出一批具备全球影响力的原创IP和品牌。 ➢ 文化赋能与商业创新共振，IP授权与原创设计双轮驱动 头部企业通过"自有IP+授权IP"构建庞大IP矩阵，如泡泡玛特持续孵化LABUBU、 MOLLY等原创IP并推出动画深化内涵，52TOYS则拥有35个自有IP及80个授权 IP，依据IP特性打造产品。在商业创新的推动下，品类创新与技术融合持续激活 市场。潮玩产品早不再局限于盲盒与手办，已扩展至拼装积木、毛绒玩具 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Hold" rating for the company, QiXin Group [4][79]. Core Viewpoints - QiXin Group is a leading enterprise in domestic office procurement, transitioning from stationery manufacturing to a comprehensive office solution provider, focusing on digital procurement services for medium to large government and enterprise clients [2][11]. - The company is expected to benefit from the continuous penetration and market share increase in the B2B office procurement sector, as well as the expansion of its MRO (Maintenance, Repair, and Operations) business, which has significant growth potential [4][79]. - The report highlights the company's efforts in enhancing its self-owned brand through collaborations with popular domestic IPs, which is anticipated to improve its profit structure and create new growth points [4][66]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - QiXin Group, established in 1991, has evolved into a comprehensive procurement service platform, serving over 60 central enterprises and becoming a pioneer in the B2B procurement market [2][11]. Office Procurement - The digitalization of B2B office procurement is on the rise, with a projected market size of 175.4 trillion yuan in 2023, and a digital procurement penetration rate of approximately 9.8% [3][33]. - The company has developed a digital operation platform that covers various procurement needs, significantly reducing management costs for clients [3][53]. MRO Business - The MRO market is substantially larger than traditional office supplies, with an estimated size of 8.9 trillion yuan compared to 2 trillion yuan for traditional office supplies [3][36]. - QiXin Group's MRO business has already served major clients like State Grid and Southern Power Grid, positioning it for future growth [3][4]. Brand Development - The company has been enhancing its self-owned brand "COMIX QiXin" through IP collaborations, aiming to increase the proportion of high-value products [4][66]. - The domestic market for cultural and creative products is expected to grow significantly, with the company focusing on appealing to younger consumers [4][62]. Financial Forecast and Investment Suggestions - Revenue growth is projected at 11%, 9%, and 8% for 2025-2027, with net profit growth of 70%, 41%, and 37% respectively [4][75]. - The report anticipates an EPS of 0.15 yuan, 0.21 yuan, and 0.29 yuan for the same period, with a current PE ratio of 48x for 2025 [4][79].

Core Viewpoint - The rising value of trendy toys and IP toys is highlighted by the recent auction of LABUBU for 1.08 million yuan, leading to a surge in related stocks and showcasing the vibrant growth of China's toy industry [1][2]. Industry Developments - Dongguan and Shantou, two major toy production bases in Guangdong, are actively planning for the future, reflecting the robust vitality of the Chinese toy industry [1][3]. - Dongguan's Shipaizhen hosted the "Trendy Toy Industry Ecosystem Partnership Conference," emphasizing the city's commitment to becoming a hub for trendy toy businesses and expanding global markets [1][4]. - Shantou's Chenghai district held the "AI Toy Industry Innovation and Development Conference," focusing on the integration of AI technology into traditional toy manufacturing for transformation and upgrading [1][4]. Corporate Actions - Companies like Shifeng Culture in Chenghai have partnered with Baidu Smart Cloud to launch AI toy production plans, aiming for intelligent, personalized, and educational enhancements in toy manufacturing [2][6]. - Dongguan's trendy toy enterprises are seeking deeper cultural recognition to enhance the cultural value of their products, facilitating the global expansion of "Chinese trendy toys" [2][3]. Market Trends - The AI toy market is rapidly expanding, with projections indicating it could reach a market size of $36.377 billion by 2030, driven by advancements in IoT and AI technologies [6]. - The shift in consumer behavior from basic needs to emotional value is evident, with consumers willing to pay for products that offer emotional satisfaction [7]. - The Chinese IP toy market is expected to grow significantly, with a projected market size of 75.6 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 11.7% from 2020 to 2024 [8].

Core Insights - The China Fashion Industry Summit Investment Conference successfully took place in Shanghai, featuring 9 keynote speeches, 36 industry leaders, and nearly 200 professional investors, with total fund scale exceeding 100 billion [1] - The definition of "Chinese fashion" is forming a consensus, rooted in traditional culture and national sentiment, embodying China's spiritual philosophy and cultural essence [1] - The Chinese fashion industry is in a golden development period, with the integration of traditional aesthetics and digital technology injecting new momentum into the sector [13] Group 1: Keynote Presentations - Bain & Company released the "China Fashion Consumption Development Report," highlighting eight key trends in Chinese fashion consumption [1] - 毛戈平, founder of 毛戈平美妆, shared insights on the brand's journey and emphasized the importance of promoting domestic brands to the global stage [4] - 张晓冬, CEO of a fashion group, discussed the rise of domestic IPs and innovative practices in creating trendy art IPs [8] Group 2: Roundtable Discussions - A roundtable on "Supply Innovation: How to Create Differentiated Tourism Experiences" featured discussions on enhancing tourism through scene experiences and storytelling [2] - A forum on "How to Empower Chinese Designer Brands" included insights from various designers on integrating Chinese cultural elements into their designs [6] - A discussion on "Opportunities in the Pet Industry" explored trends in pet food and the impact of smart pet care [10] Group 3: Industry Trends and Opportunities - The conference highlighted the importance of capital focusing on Chinese design and brand IP incubation, indicating a shift towards cultural confidence and industrial innovation [13] - The event showcased 14 innovative projects and over 20 investment intention matches, indicating strong interest in the fashion and cultural tourism sectors [1] - The rise of the M-shaped society consumer upgrade trend was discussed, emphasizing the growth potential in the mother and baby sector [10]

Core Viewpoint - The rising value of trendy toys and IP toys is highlighted by the recent auction of LABUBU for 1.08 million yuan, leading to a surge in related stocks such as Pop Mart, Baixinglong, and Shifeng Culture [1] Group 1: Industry Dynamics - Dongguan and Shantou, two major toy production bases in Guangdong, are actively planning for the future, reflecting the vibrant growth of China's toy industry [1] - Dongguan's Shipaizhen hosted the "Trendy Toy Industry Ecological Cooperation Partner Conference" on June 10, promoting the global expansion of trendy toy brands [2][4] - Shantou's Chenghai district held the "AI Toy Industry Innovation and Development Conference" on June 12, focusing on the integration of AI technology into traditional toy manufacturing [2][3] Group 2: Government and Corporate Initiatives - Local governments are deeply involved in driving industry transformation, with Shifeng Culture announcing a strategic partnership with Baidu Smart Cloud to produce AI toys [2][6] - Dongguan's government is increasing policy support to enhance the quality and competitiveness of the trendy toy industry [4] Group 3: Market Trends and Projections - The AI toy market is expected to reach $36.377 billion by 2030, driven by advancements in IoT and AI technologies [6] - The Chinese IP toy market is projected to grow to 75.6 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 29.23% and a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.7% from 2020 to 2024 [7][8] - The per capita expenditure on IP toys in China is significantly lower than in the US and Japan, indicating substantial growth potential in the Chinese market [8]

Group 1 - The toy market in China is experiencing a transformation with diverse products that reflect new consumer trends and industry vitality, especially around Children's Day [1][2] - The retail sales of trendy and collectible toys in China are projected to reach 465.7 billion yuan in 2024, with related products totaling 558.3 billion yuan [4] - Consumers, including adults, are increasingly purchasing toys for themselves, indicating a shift towards emotional value and artistic attributes in toy design [4] Group 2 - The integration of IP (intellectual property) with toys is enhancing product attributes such as collectability and social interaction, with significant potential for market growth [5] - AI technology is revitalizing the toy industry, leading to the popularity of smart toys like programming robots and interactive plush toys, which offer enhanced interactive experiences [6][9] - The AI toy market is expected to grow significantly, with projections indicating a market size exceeding 35 billion USD by 2030 [9] Group 3 - Cultural elements are being incorporated into toys, with traditional Chinese culture being represented through various products, enhancing cultural confidence and creating new consumer opportunities [10][12] - The rise of "Guochao" (national trend) in toys reflects a blend of traditional culture and modern creativity, appealing to both children and adults [10][14] - Dongguan, known as a major toy manufacturing hub, is producing popular toys that resonate with both domestic and international markets, showcasing China's cultural symbols [14]

Core Viewpoint - The company "卡游" is attempting to go public in Hong Kong, leveraging its strong performance and IP resources, while facing regulatory scrutiny and competition in the trading card game market [3][5][8]. Group 1: Company Performance - In 2024, 卡游 reported a revenue of 100.57 billion RMB, a 278% increase year-on-year, and an adjusted net profit of 44.66 billion RMB, up 378% from 2023 [8][18]. - The company has a cash flow of 51.13 billion RMB as of February 28, 2025, with current liabilities of 41.22 billion RMB, primarily due to investments from Sequoia Capital and Tencent [10]. - The trading card segment contributed significantly to revenue, with 39.3 billion RMB in 2022, accounting for 95.1% of total revenue [17]. Group 2: Market Position and Strategy - 卡游 holds 70 IPs, including popular franchises like 奥特曼 and 火影忍者, which have driven its growth in the trading card market [16][19]. - The trading card game market is experiencing rapid growth, with a compound annual growth rate of 56.6% from 2019 to 2024, and 卡游's trading cards accounted for 25.8% of the overall market in 2024 [14]. - The company has diversified its product offerings, introducing toys and stationery, with stationery revenue growing from 20.9 million RMB in 2022 to 512.5 million RMB in 2024 [30]. Group 3: Regulatory and Competitive Challenges - 卡游's IPO process has faced delays due to regulatory inquiries regarding user data protection and corporate structure [5][12]. - The company is under scrutiny for potentially targeting underage consumers, which has raised concerns about its marketing practices [23][25]. - To mitigate risks associated with reliance on external IPs, 卡游 launched its own original IP, 卡游三国, which has shown promising growth [33]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The company aims to complete its IPO by the end of 2025 to avoid a potential buyback obligation to investors, which could strain its finances [12][13]. - 卡游 is focusing on international expansion and cultural integration, collaborating with the National Sports Administration to promote Chinese cultural cards abroad [39][41]. - The evolving public perception of card games as a legitimate form of entertainment may provide a favorable environment for 卡游's growth and market acceptance [35][36].