【大宗商品公式定价原理】生意社基准价是基于价格大数据与生意社价格模型产生的交易指导价，又称 生意社价格。可用于确定以下两种需求的交易结算价： 2025年12月29日卫星化学股份有限公司乙二醇出厂对外报价3670元/吨，较上一交易日报价上调20元/ 吨，实单商谈为主。 PriceSeek评析 乙二醇，多空评分：1 卫星化学乙二醇出厂报价上调20元/吨至3670元/吨，表明现货市场供应偏紧或需求改善，利好现货价 格。结合乙二醇期货主力合约2605(2025-12-26收盘价3846元/吨，结算价3820元/吨，成交量363008手)的 近期表现，报价上调可能提振期货市场看涨情绪，预计期货价格将跟随现货呈现温和上涨趋势。 生意社12月29日讯 定价公式：结算价=生意社基准价×K＋C K：调整系数，包括账期成本等因素。 卫星化学乙二醇出厂报价上调20元/吨至3670元/吨，表明现货市场供应偏紧或需求改善，利好现货价 格。结合乙二醇期货主力合约2605(2025-12-26收盘价3846元/吨，结算价3820元/吨，成交量363008手)的 近期表现，报价上调可能提振期货市场看涨情绪，预计期货价格将跟随现货呈现温和上涨 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market in 2025 experienced a significant upward trend after a rapid decline in early April, characterized by a concentrated focus on "new productive forces" and driven by policy, events, and industry developments [1] Group 1: AI Hardware and Chip Market - The launch of the DeepSeek-R1 model in January 2025, with a training cost of approximately $294,000, disrupted the belief that top models required tens of millions of dollars, leading to a surge in domestic AI hardware stocks [3] - The performance of computing power chip stocks was remarkable, with Tianpu Co. achieving a maximum increase of over 1300% in 2025, while Dongxin Co. and Chipone Co. both exceeded 300% [5] - The collaboration between Nvidia and OpenAI, valued at $100 billion, highlighted the competitive landscape in AI chips, with significant demand for H100 GPUs for training next-generation models [4] Group 2: Storage Chip Market - The demand for storage chips surged, with prices for DRAM and NAND Flash increasing by over 300% since September 2025, driven by the focus on HBM and DDR5 technologies [9] - Companies like Shannon Semiconductor saw a maximum increase of over 600% in 2025, while others like Demingli and Jiangbolong exceeded 200% [9] Group 3: Commodities and Precious Metals - The decline in the US dollar and the Fed's interest rate cuts led to a significant rise in commodity prices, with gold increasing by over 70% and silver by over 170% in 2025 [11] - The demand for industrial metals surged due to new industries, with copper prices rising over 40%, and several companies in the precious metals sector saw increases exceeding 200% [11] Group 4: Commercial Aerospace - The commercial aerospace sector experienced a boom in Q4 2025, driven by government support and successful rocket launches, with companies like Shunhao Co. and Feiwo Technology seeing maximum increases of over 450% [13] Group 5: Energy Storage and Lithium Battery Industry - The global energy storage demand is expected to grow significantly, with projections of over 60% growth in 2026, leading to price increases in lithium and related materials [15] - Companies in the energy storage sector, such as Yidong Electronics and Zhenhua Co., saw maximum increases of over 270%, while lithium battery companies like Haike New Energy exceeded 560% [15] Group 6: Regional Policy Impacts - The Fujian and Hainan regions experienced significant market activity due to new policies, with Fujian stocks like Haixia Innovation seeing increases over 500% and Hainan stocks like Zhongtung High-tech exceeding 180% [18][22]

回望2025年，这注定是被载入商业史册的"重塑之年"。 开年的第一声惊雷并非来自宏大的战略发布，而是DeepSeek以极致的"成本范式"击穿了硅谷的暴利神话，它不仅引发了全球对AI资产的价值重估，更让阿 里、字节跳动等巨头从单纯的"炫技"转向了C端应用与硬件落地的贴身肉搏。AI不再是高不可攀的概念，而是变成了通过价格战和算力突围，真正渗透进商 业肌理的变量。 1月20日，DeepSeek低调发布了R1推理模型，起初并未引爆全场，但随着发酵，到了1月24日周末，其在各大榜单上媲美OpenAI o1的表现震惊了硅谷。 | Rank* | Rank A | Model | Arena ▲ | ▲ 95% CI | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | (UB) | (StyleCtrl) | | Score | | | 1 | 3 | Gemini-2.0-Flash-Thinking- Exp-01-21 | 1382 | +8/-6 | | ਹ | ਹ | Gemini-Exp-1206 | 1374 | +5/-4 | | 3 | ਹ | ChatGPT-4o-latest (2 ...

生意社12月29日讯近日，湖南裕能宣布自2026年1月1日起对部分产线检修一个月，预计减少磷酸盐正极 材料产量1.5至3.5万吨。 PriceSeek评析 磷酸铁锂，多空评分：1.5 湖南裕能宣布自2026年1月1日起检修部分产线一个月，预计减少磷酸盐正极材料(磷酸铁锂)产量1.5至 3.5万吨。这将导致市场供应显著减少，在新能源汽车和储能需求持续稳定的背景下，现货价格可能受 到上行压力。减产规模占行业月度产量的一定比例，形成一般利好支撑，但需关注其他生产商的产能补 充情况。 【大宗商品公式定价原理】生意社基准价是基于价格大数据与生意社价格模型产生的交易指导价，又称 生意社价格。可用于确定以下两种需求的交易结算价： 1、指定日期的结算价 2、指定周期的平均结算价 定价公式：结算价=生意社基准价×K＋C K：调整系数，包括账期成本等因素。 C：升贴水，包括物流成本、品牌价差、区域价差等因素。 生意社12月29日讯近日，湖南裕能宣布自2026年1月1日起对部分产线检修一个月，预计减少磷酸盐正极 材料产量1.5至3.5万吨。 PriceSeek评析 磷酸铁锂，多空评分：1.5 湖南裕能宣布自2026年1月1日起检修 ...

Anthropic高管Jack Clark警告：巨变在即，而AI将把世界撕裂为两个平行宇宙。 这一切都是一个长期发展过程的产物，是AI技术、资本、就业和生活交织变革在一起的产物。 通用人工智能不是终点，超级智能才是起点。 2025年，AI从幻想到现实，AGI祛魅而ASI初现端倪。科技巨头们竞相追逐超级智能，世界正被撕裂成两个平行宇宙：AI拥抱者与旁观者。投 资热潮涌动，模型能力跃升……这不仅仅是技术革命，更是人类命运的转折点。 2025年，全球AI领域风起云涌。 通用人工智能（Artificial general intelligence，AGI）开始祛魅，超级人工智能（Artificial Super Intelligence，ASI）开始登上舞台。 当真正的AI竞赛始于通用人工智能之后！ AI一年，人类千年 至今，自然界的一切智能都是生物智能，都是碳基智能。 但今年的LLM可能是人类有史以来第一次创造出的全新智能形态。 在2025年度回顾中，Karpathy直言： 2025年是我（以及我认为整个行业）首次开始以更直观的方式内化理解LLM智能的「形态」。 在推理、多模态处理和智能体上，2025年AI模型取得 ...

Core Insights - By 2025, China and the United States will account for over 80% of the global large model market in artificial intelligence [1][2] - The capability gap between top AI models in China and the US is projected to decrease from 20% in 2024 to just 0.3% in 2025 [1][2] - The popularity of China's general large models is attributed to their depth and openness compared to US models, which are seen as less open [1][2] Industry Trends - The US is focusing on AI chips, AI infrastructure, and closed-source large models, while China is concentrating on smart hardware, application markets, and open-source large models [1][2] - In the next five years, China and the US are expected to compete in five key areas of AI innovation: artificial intelligence, robotics, energy storage, blockchain technology, and multi-omics sequencing [1][2]

Core Insights - The real estate market's future value will largely depend on the city of purchase and the quality of property amenities, rather than overall market trends [1][2][4] Group 1: Predictions for Core Cities - Properties in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and other key urban areas are expected to maintain value, with a projected increase to approximately 1.15 to 1.25 million by 2030 from a current value of 1 million [1][2] - The anticipated growth is modest, reflecting a shift in market dynamics where properties are expected to outpace inflation but not achieve previous high returns [1] Group 2: Risks in Lower-Tier Cities - Properties in third and fourth-tier cities, or suburban areas of major cities, are likely to depreciate, with values potentially dropping to 0.75 to 0.85 million by 2030 [2] - These areas face significant inventory pressure and lack the necessary industrial support to attract population inflow, leading to a downward trend in property values [2][5] Group 3: Changes in Educational Property Value - The value of properties linked to educational districts is expected to weaken as educational resources become more balanced, particularly affecting "pseudo school district properties" in lower-tier cities [4] Group 4: Underlying Factors for Market Divergence - The slowdown in urbanization and concentrated population movement towards core cities will impact property values in less populated areas [5] - Policy direction is clear, with a dual-track system aimed at providing housing support, which will divert demand away from third and fourth-tier cities [5] - Changing consumer preferences emphasize comfort and convenience, leading to the market's rejection of properties lacking essential amenities [6] Group 5: Recommendations - For first-time homebuyers, it is advisable to consider small units in core cities with complete amenities for better long-term stability [8] - Investment in third and fourth-tier cities is discouraged, as properties in core cities are now viewed primarily as value-preserving assets rather than opportunities for significant wealth accumulation [8]

Group 1 - The core investment theme for 2025 is AI, with significant developments such as DeepSeek and Google's Gemini3 model influencing the market, alongside Nvidia's market capitalization reaching $5 trillion [1] - The U.S. tariffs initiated by President Trump in April caused a panic in global markets, leading to substantial declines in major indices, including a 7.34% drop in the Shanghai Composite Index [1] - Central Huijin's announcement of increased holdings in ETFs during the market downturn aimed to stabilize the capital market, with a total investment of approximately 210 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - A comprehensive financial policy package was released in May, including a significant reserve requirement ratio cut by the central bank, which resulted in a rise in the Shanghai Composite Index from around 3,400 to above 3,700 [2] - A-share market capitalization surpassed 100 trillion yuan for the first time on August 18, 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a near ten-year high of 3,731 points [2] - A-share trading activity was notably high, with three trading days exceeding 3 trillion yuan in turnover, and the total annual turnover reaching a record 408 trillion yuan, a 58.49% increase from 2024 [2] Group 3 - Gold and silver prices surged throughout the year, with gold reaching $4,530 and a year-to-date increase of over 72%, while silver saw a 160% rise [3] - The Federal Reserve initiated a rate cut cycle in December, providing significant liquidity to the market, which led to a substantial inflow of northbound capital into A-shares [3] - The renminbi strengthened against the dollar, with the offshore rate surpassing 7.0 for the first time since September 2024, reflecting a 6% appreciation since April 2025 [3]

Core Insights - 2025 is designated as the "International Year of Quantum Science and Technology" by UNESCO, marking a pivotal moment in China's "14th Five-Year Plan" and a shift in computational paradigms towards quantum computing and advanced materials [1][22] Quantum Computing Breakthroughs - The DeepSeek-R1 model, released on January 20, 2025, utilizes reinforcement learning to enhance reasoning capabilities and achieves performance comparable to OpenAI's models at a low computational cost [3][24] - The Nobel Prize in Physics awarded in October recognizes the foundational role of superconducting quantum circuits in modern computing, highlighting the work of John Clarke, Michel H. Devoret, and John M. Martinis [5][26] - The Helios quantum computer, launched by Quantinuum, features 98 physical qubits with a fidelity of 99.9975% for single-qubit operations, making it the most precise commercial quantum computer to date [9][30] Advanced Materials and Technologies - The BISC chip, developed by a collaboration between Columbia University and Stanford, integrates 65,536 electrodes into a flexible CMOS chip, enabling unprecedented wireless data transmission rates of up to 100 Mbps [8][29] - A new type of hollow-core optical fiber, reported by the Lumenisity research team, demonstrates a loss of only 0.091 dB/km at a wavelength of 1550 nm, promising advancements in long-distance communication [11][32] - The development of "atomic manufacturing" techniques has pushed metal materials to the Ångström scale, opening pathways for new quantum and electronic devices [13][34] Environmental and Energy Innovations - SSAB's Zero™ steel has become the first product to meet the near-zero emissions threshold set by the International Energy Agency, utilizing hydrogen reduction technology to eliminate carbon emissions [17][38] - The EAST nuclear fusion experiment achieved a world record of 1 billion degrees Celsius for 1066 seconds, demonstrating the feasibility of future fusion reactors [18][39] - Research on the Bennu asteroid samples revealed the presence of essential life-building components, suggesting that the building blocks of life may have been distributed across early Earth and other planets [21][42]

Core Insights - The article discusses the launch of TurboDiffusion, an open-source framework developed by Tsinghua University's TSAIL lab and Shenshu Technology, which significantly accelerates video generation, achieving speed increases of over 200 times while maintaining quality [1][14]. Group 1: Technology and Performance - TurboDiffusion allows for the generation of a 5-second 480P video on a single RTX 5090 GPU in just 1.9 seconds, compared to 184 seconds with the original model, resulting in a 97-fold speed increase [5][6]. - For larger models, such as a 14B video generation model at 720P, the generation time is reduced to 38 seconds, and for a 480P model, it takes only 9.9 seconds [5][6]. - The framework employs four key technologies: SageAttention, Sparse-Linear Attention (SLA), rCM step distillation, and W8A8 quantization, which collectively enhance performance and reduce computational load [9][10][11][12]. Group 2: Industry Impact - TurboDiffusion's advancements enable real-time video generation, making it feasible for individual creators and small businesses to produce high-quality content quickly [14]. - The reduction in inference time by 100 times allows cloud service providers to serve significantly more users with the same computational resources, lowering operational costs [14]. - The technology is compatible with domestic AI chip architectures, promoting self-sufficiency in China's AI infrastructure [14][15]. Group 3: Future Implications - The framework signifies a paradigm shift in video generation, where high-quality AI video can be produced without sacrificing efficiency, thus transforming AI from a post-production tool to a creative partner [16]. - As generation speeds approach human reaction times (under 5 seconds), the potential for real-time interactive video creation becomes a reality, expanding creative possibilities [16].