惠誉预计，除非产能出现显著且持续的削减，否则2026年锂市场仍将处于供过于求状态。伍德麦肯兹 (Wood Mackenzie)预测，电池级锂化学品的过剩量将在2026年扩大至15.3万吨(以碳酸锂当量计)，并在 2027年进一步增至20.7万吨。在关键拐点上，由于电动车需求滞后及政策不确定性仍在持续，短期供需 平衡取决于供应削减情况。 年初至今，锂相关股票走势分化。加拿大锂矿开发商Standard Lithium(SLI.US)股价上涨近250%， Lithium Americas(LAC.US)和智利矿业化工(SQM.US)等较大生产商也取得了可观涨幅。而美国雅保 (ALB.US)等行业巨头则在锂价疲软和板块波动加剧的背景下表现落后。Global X锂与电池技术ETF年内 累计上涨56%，部分受到关税和贸易战相关消息的推动。 智通财经APP获悉，惠誉预计，尽管锂价已于11月下旬回升至每吨超11,500美元(2025年下半年上涨 38%)，但锂价疲软态势仍将持续至2026年。惠誉补充称，鉴于在一个分散且逐渐成熟的市场中，生产 受到经济、运营和战略等多重复杂因素交织影响，短期内前景仍不明朗。该机构表示，相较于历 ...

Key Points China is revoking multiple lithium mining licenses, pushing local lithium prices higher. Global lithium stocks are rising as well. 10 stocks we like better than Sociedad Química Y Minera De Chile › Shares of Sociedad Quimica Y Minera de Chile S.A. (NYSE: SQM), one of the biggest stocks in Chile and a key international supplier of lithium for electric car batteries, jumped 5% through 11:25 a.m. ET. You can thank China for the good news. Image source: Getty Images. Chinese moves the mar ...

智通财经APP获悉，周三，锂矿股盘前普涨，Sigma Lithium (SGML.US)涨逾8%，智利矿业化工 (SQM.US)、美国雅保(ALB.US)涨逾4%，Lithium Americas (LAC.US)涨2%。消息面上，据报道，自12月 上旬开始，多家磷酸铁锂企业开始和客户商谈价格，一些头部企业提出了提价诉求，涨幅集中在 2000~3000元 / 吨之间。部分企业甚至表示，涨价趋势预计将持续至明年第四季度。本轮磷酸铁锂提价 除了储能等需求拉动外，还有碳酸锂等原材料成本上涨的驱动。有分析师表示，碳酸锂作为磷酸铁锂正 极材料的关键原料，其价格每上涨1万元/吨，就会直接推高正极材料成本约2300~2500元/吨。 ...

周三，锂矿股盘前普涨，Sigma Lithium(SGML.US)涨逾8%，智利矿业化工(SQM.US)、美国雅保 (ALB.US)涨逾4%，Lithium Americas(LAC.US)涨2%。消息面上，据报道，自12月上旬开始，多家磷酸 铁锂企业开始和客户商谈价格，一些头部企业提出了提价诉求，涨幅集中在2000~3000元/吨之间。部分 企业甚至表示，涨价趋势预计将持续至明年第四季度。本轮磷酸铁锂提价除了储能等需求拉动外，还有 碳酸锂等原材料成本上涨的驱动。有分析师表示，碳酸锂作为磷酸铁锂正极材料的关键原料，其价格每 上涨1万元/吨，就会直接推高正极材料成本约2300~2500元/吨。 ...

Key Takeaways The chemical industry faced weak demand in construction, autos and electronics amid inflation and tariffs.Soft demand in China and Europe, plus trade tariffs, continued to pressure chemical volumes in 2025.Chemical makers are cutting costs and improving efficiency to protect margins heading into 2026.The chemical industry has grappled with a demand slowdown in certain major markets, including consumer durables and building & construction, cautious spending by customers and pockets of inventory ...

Core Viewpoint - The article summarizes key research rating adjustments from Wall Street that are likely to influence market trends, highlighting companies with upgraded, downgraded, and newly initiated ratings [1][6]. Upgraded Ratings - Toll Brothers (TOL): JPMorgan upgraded the rating from "Neutral" to "Overweight," raising the target price from $138 to $161, citing significantly higher gross and operating margins compared to industry averages [5]. - Toast (TOST): JPMorgan upgraded the rating from "Neutral" to "Overweight," maintaining the target price at $43, with expectations of improved performance if regulatory policies on transaction fees are implemented [5]. - Accelerant (ARX): Citizens JMP upgraded the rating from "Market Perform" to "Outperform," setting a target price of $20, indicating that market concerns over its related party business have been overstated [5]. - UMH Properties (UMH): Colliers upgraded the rating from "Neutral" to "Buy," increasing the target price from $16 to $17, highlighting the resilience of the manufactured housing sector [5]. - Descartes Systems (DSGX): Raymond James upgraded the rating from "Market Perform" to "Outperform," setting a target price of $118, noting that the current price-to-EBITDA ratio is near a 10-year low, positioning it well for a market recovery [5]. Downgraded Ratings - PayPal (PYPL): JPMorgan downgraded the rating from "Overweight" to "Neutral," lowering the target price from $85 to $70, indicating that 2026 will be a critical year for execution and investment [5]. - Sociedad Química y Minera (SQM): Goldman Sachs downgraded the rating from "Buy" to "Neutral," raising the target price from $45 to $63, as the stock has risen 80% this year, exceeding fundamental support [5]. - Lennar (LEN): JPMorgan downgraded the rating from "Neutral" to "Underweight," lowering the target price from $118 to $115, maintaining a cautious stance on the residential builders sector for 2026 [5]. - Halozyme (HALO): Goldman Sachs downgraded the rating from "Neutral" to "Sell," setting a target price of $56, expressing concerns over the ambitious revenue targets set for 2041 [5]. - Fidelity National Information Services (FISV): JPMorgan downgraded the rating from "Overweight" to "Neutral," maintaining the target price at $85, indicating that 2026 will be a year requiring proof of execution [5]. Newly Initiated Ratings - United Airlines (UAL): Citigroup initiated coverage with a "Buy" rating and a target price of $132, citing a positive outlook for the airline industry [10]. - General Electric Aviation (GE): Susquehanna initiated coverage with a "Positive" rating and a target price of $350, noting its dominant position in the commercial aviation engine market [10][12]. - Hershey (HSY): Jefferies resumed coverage with a "Hold" rating and a target price of $181, acknowledging the company's strategies to manage cocoa cost pressures while noting high current valuations [10][13]. - Monday.com (MNDY): Guggenheim initiated coverage with a "Buy" rating and a target price of $250, indicating a potential 64% upside from current levels [10][13]. - Cava Group (CAVA): Truist initiated coverage with a "Buy" rating and a target price of $66, highlighting its leadership in the Mediterranean fast-casual dining sector [10][13].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Lithium Market - **Current Trends**: Lithium prices are experiencing a resurgence, with lithium carbonate prices up approximately 55% and spodumene prices up about 83% from their June lows. This increase is primarily driven by strong demand from energy storage systems (ESS) and inventory destocking in China [2][10][11]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Demand Dynamics**: - Demand for lithium is expected to grow significantly, with estimates indicating a 19% increase (approximately 307kt LCE) in 2026, driven by electric vehicles (EVs) and ESS [19]. - The demand for EVs is projected to account for around 208kt of the incremental demand, while ESS is expected to contribute approximately 62kt [19]. - China's ESS battery sales in the first nine months of 2025 reached 211GWh, marking a 66% year-on-year increase, supported by policy reforms and subsidies [16]. - Domestic commercial vehicle battery installations surged by 136% year-on-year, reflecting rising EV adoption due to supportive policies [17]. - **Supply Forecast**: - The lithium market is anticipated to remain in surplus, with a projected supply increase of approximately 298kt, countered by a demand increase of 307kt [3][29]. - Refined lithium supply (excluding recycling) is expected to grow by 35% year-on-year in 2025 and 16% in 2026, driven by the ramp-up of key projects globally [24][26]. - Major contributors to the incremental production in 2026 include projects in Goulamina, Da Hongliutan, and SQM's Atacama [25]. - **Market Risks**: - There are heightened risks of supply disruptions due to potential unrest in lithium-producing regions, particularly in Mali, and delays in the restart of CATL's mine [12][28]. - A 10% increase in demand or supply disruptions could shift the market from surplus to a small deficit [3][35]. Company-Specific Insights - **SQM (Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile)**: - **Rating**: Maintain Buy; target price increased to USD 71.00 from USD 48.00. - **Rationale**: Strong operational performance, solid balance sheet, and expected volume growth. The company is well-positioned to benefit from rising lithium prices due to its lower production costs [4][41][48]. - **Financial Estimates**: Revenue for 2026 is projected at USD 4.854 billion, with EBITDA of USD 1.755 billion and net income of USD 613 million [52]. - **Albemarle (ALB)**: - **Rating**: Maintain Hold; target price increased to USD 117.00 from USD 87.00. - **Rationale**: The company is improving free cash flow generation and balance sheet strength through cost-cutting measures and efficiency improvements. However, uncertainty around future lithium prices poses risks [59][66]. - **Financial Estimates**: Revenue for 2026 is projected at USD 5.504 billion, with adjusted EBITDA of USD 1.375 billion [63]. - **Lithium Americas (LAC) and Lithium Argentina (LAR)**: - **Rating**: Hold for both companies, with target prices slightly adjusted. LAC's target price is USD 4.70, and LAR's is USD 4.75 [4][5]. Additional Important Insights - **Price Sensitivity**: The stock prices of lithium companies are highly sensitive to fluctuations in lithium prices. For SQM, a 20% increase in lithium prices could lead to a 21% increase in NAV per share [42][48]. - **Market Sentiment**: The current sentiment in the lithium market is buoyed by strong demand and the potential for supply disruptions, despite the overall expectation of a surplus market in the near term [9][29]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the dynamics of the lithium market, company-specific insights, and potential risks and opportunities.

Tianqi Lithium Corp. Chief Executive Officer Frank Ha is keeping the door open to the possibility of taking a case against Chile’s SQM to an international tribunal https://t.co/0rBMIIQbRv ...

Report Summary Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints In Q3 2025, the supply of mainstream mines in Australia was stable, and the lithium shipments in South America increased quarter-on-quarter. In Q4, it is the peak production season for downstream industries, and the overseas lithium mine production capacity is ramping up. It is expected that the production and sales will maintain an upward trend [1][3][11]. Summary by Company Australia - **Overall in Australia**: In Q3 2025, the supply of mainstream mines was stable. The lithium concentrate production increased by about 1.8% year-on-year and 9.1% quarter-on-quarter, while the sales volume decreased slightly by 0.7% year-on-year and was nearly flat quarter-on-quarter. In Q4, with the commissioning of the CGP3 project at Greenbushes and the production capacity ramping up at Pilbara, it is expected that the production and sales will maintain an upward trend [3]. - **Greenbushes**: In Q3 2025, it produced 320,000 tons of lithium concentrate, a 6% quarter-on-quarter and 21% year-on-year decrease. The sales volume was 301,000 tons, a 27% quarter-on-quarter and 23% year-on-year decrease. The average selling price was $730/ton (FOB), a 1% quarter-on-quarter increase. The cash production cost increased by 6% quarter-on-quarter to A$388/ton, a 40% year-on-year increase. The Kwinana lithium hydroxide plant produced 2,775 tons of lithium hydroxide in Q3 2025, a 31% quarter-on-quarter and 85% year-on-year increase, and the sales volume was 2,921 tons, a 68% quarter-on-quarter increase. The CGP3 is expected to start commissioning at the end of 2025, increasing the annual production capacity by 520,000 tons to 2.14 million tons of lithium concentrate per year [4]. - **Pilbara**: In Q3 2025, it produced 225,000 tons of lithium concentrate (SC5.3), a 2% year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter increase. The sales volume was 214,000 tons, a 1% quarter-on-quarter decrease and almost flat year-on-year. The average selling price was $742/ton (SC5.3, CIF China), a 24% quarter-on-quarter increase. The unit operating cost was $422/ton, a 9% quarter-on-quarter and 12% year-on-year decrease. The Ngungaju factory is under maintenance and can be quickly restarted when the market recovers. The feasibility study of the P2000 expansion is in progress, and the results are expected to be announced in FY2027. The midstream demonstration plant in Australia is under construction as planned and is expected to be completed in Q4. In Q3, the two production lines of the joint-venture lithium salt plant in South Korea produced 2,773 and 2,040 tons of lithium hydroxide respectively, and the sales volumes were 3,245 and 1,593 tons [5]. - **Mt Marion**: In Q3 2025, the total production of lithium concentrate was 146,000 tons, a 18% quarter-on-quarter and 7% year-on-year increase. The shipment volume of spodumene concentrate was 142,000 tons (SC4.6), a 4% quarter-on-quarter increase and a 36% year-on-year decrease (110,000 tons in terms of SC6, a 2% quarter-on-quarter increase and a 27% year-on-year decrease). The selling price in Q3 was $797/ton (SC6), a 31% quarter-on-quarter increase and a 2% year-on-year decrease. The cost in this quarter was A$796/ton (SC6, FOB), a 11% quarter-on-quarter increase and a 22% year-on-year decrease [6]. - **Wodgina**: In Q3 2025, it produced 176,000 tons of lithium concentrate, a 6% quarter-on-quarter and 73% year-on-year increase. The sales volume was 194,000 tons, a 45% quarter-on-quarter and 111% year-on-year increase (176,000 tons in terms of SC6, a 44% quarter-on-quarter and 110% year-on-year increase). The unit selling price was $881/ton (SC6), a 31% quarter-on-quarter and 5% year-on-year increase. The corresponding unit cost was A$733/ton, a 14% quarter-on-quarter increase and a 40% year-on-year decrease [7]. - **Kathleen Valley**: In Q3 2025, the production of lithium concentrate was 87,172 tons, a 1% quarter-on-quarter increase. The sales volume was 77,474 tons, a 20% quarter-on-quarter decrease. The inventory increased by 89% quarter-on-quarter to 20,912 tons. The average selling price was $700/ton (SC6), a 5% quarter-on-quarter decrease. The corresponding unit operating cost was $715/ton (FOB, SC6), a 24% quarter-on-quarter increase. The all-in sustaining cost (AISC) was $886/ton, a 13% quarter-on-quarter increase [8]. - **Mt Holland**: SQM updated the full-year sales guidance for Holland in 2025 to about 20,000 tons of LCE (50% equity). The lithium salt sales volume in Q3 was 10,000 tons, a significant increase from 1,300 tons in the previous quarter [9]. South America - **Overall in South America**: In Q3 2025, the shipments of major lithium resources increased by 14% quarter-on-quarter. It is expected that in Q4, as the salt lakes emerge from the production off-season, combined with production capacity ramping up and the downstream peak season, the lithium salt shipments in South America are expected to show an upward trend. The 3Q lithium salt lake project of Zijin Mining was officially put into production in September [11]. - **SQM**: In Q3 2025, the lithium salt sales volume of the Chilean division was 62,900 tons, a 22.85% year-on-year and 18.45% quarter-on-quarter increase. The average selling price was $8,281/ton, a 15% year-on-year and 1% quarter-on-quarter decrease. The average cost was $6,050/ton, a 24% year-on-year and 15% quarter-on-quarter decrease [12]. - **Arcadium Lithium Salt Lake Project**: The total quarterly production of the group's lithium resources was about 13,000 tons of LCE, a 3% quarter-on-quarter increase. The annual maintenance plan of the Fenix factory was adjusted from June to August, affecting the lithium carbonate production in this quarter, and the maintenance has been completed [13]. - **Caucharí-Olaroz**: In Q3 2025, the production was 8,300 tons, a 2% quarter-on-quarter decrease. The total production of lithium carbonate in the first three quarters of 2025 was about 24,000 tons, making the project likely to exceed the lower limit of the 2025 production guidance (30,000 - 35,000 tons). The total shipment volume of lithium carbonate in Q3 2025 was about 7,775 tons, a 10% quarter-on-quarter decrease, and the selling price was $7,522/ton. The second-phase expansion project with a production capacity of 45,000 tons/year of lithium carbonate is in progress, and the design of the 5,000-ton demonstration plant is being carried out in China [14]. - **Centenario-Ratones**: The production in Q3 was about 2,080 tons of LCE, a significant increase from 440 tons and 270 tons in the previous two quarters. The lithium sales volume in the quarter was 1,000 tons of LCE, compared with 480 tons in the previous quarter. In September, the capacity utilization rate of the factory reached 50% of the铭牌 capacity, in line with the production ramping-up expectations. Eramet expects the production of this salt lake in 2025 to be 4,000 - 7,000 tons [15]. - **Zijin 3Q**: On September 12, the commissioning ceremony of the 20,000-ton/year lithium carbonate project of Zijin Mining's Lithium Technology 3Q lithium salt lake was held. The pre - work such as the permit approval for the second-phase project is progressing in an orderly manner, with a planned lithium carbonate production capacity of 40,000 tons/year. After the full operation of the two phases, the annual production capacity is expected to reach 60,000 - 80,000 tons [16][17]. Others - **Grota do Cirilo**: In Q3 2025, affected by the change of equipment suppliers, the lithium concentrate production was 44,000 tons, a 27% year-on-year and 36% quarter-on-quarter decrease. The mine operation is expected to resume at the end of November, and the production capacity will be fully increased to 300,000 tons/year in Q1 2026. The sales volume was 49,000 tons, a 15% year-on-year decrease and a 21% quarter-on-quarter increase. The average selling price was $586/ton, a 61% year-on-year and 40% quarter-on-quarter increase. The cash operating cost (CIF China, including royalties) was $543/ton, a 6% year-on-year and 23% quarter-on-quarter increase. The second-phase expansion project is continuing, and the earthwork and terrace construction were completed this quarter. The second-phase project will add an annual capacity of 250,000 tons of lithium concentrate, and the total annual capacity of the mine will reach 520,000 tons. The commissioning of the second-phase project is postponed to before the end of 2026 [17]. - **AMG**: In Q3 2025, it sold 15,409 tons of lithium concentrate, a 16% quarter-on-quarter increase and a 32% year-on-year decrease. The unit selling price was $530/ton (CIF, China), a 15% quarter-on-quarter and 39% year-on-year decrease. The corresponding cost was $420/ton, a 14% quarter-on-quarter and 7% year-on-year decrease. One of the company's expansion project equipment has been malfunctioning since Q2, and the current operating capacity is 110,000 tons/year [18]. - **Africa**: The new projects are ramping up production smoothly. The first batch of ores from Ganfeng Lithium's Goulamina spodumene project in Mali arrived at domestic ports in early August. Hainan Mining's Bougouni lithium mine project in Mali obtained an export license from the Malian government and is expected to depart from Africa in Q4. The projects in Zimbabwe and Nigeria have benefited from the recovery of lithium prices and the increase in domestic imports. The main future supply increment in Africa is the northeastern project of Zijin Mining's Manono, with the first-phase project planning an annual production of 95,170 tons of crude lithium sulfate (about 50,000 tons of LCE), and it is planned to be put into production in the first half of 2026 [19].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The performance of NVIDIA is expected to drive a rebound in technology stocks, and the market may rebound due to the influence of US stocks and brokerage mergers [18][23]. - The risk appetite in the bond market has recovered, and the bond market remains weakly stable, but caution is needed regarding potential short - term trading opportunities [24][25]. - For various commodities, different trends are presented. For example, protein meal prices are gradually falling due to supply pressure, while sugar prices are expected to be range - bound both internationally and domestically [28][35]. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: NVIDIA's strong performance may drive a rebound in technology stocks. The market showed support on Wednesday, with significant sector differentiation. The strategy is to go long on dips in the short - term, conduct IM/IC 2512 long + ETF short cash - and - carry arbitrage, and use bull spreads on dips [18][21][23]. - **Treasury Futures**: The risk appetite has recovered, and the bond market is weakly stable. The strategy is to stay on the sidelines for single - side trading, take profit on previous (TL - 3T) positions, and try to go long on the T - contract current - quarter to next - quarter inter - delivery spread [24][25][27]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: Supply pressure is evident, and the price is gradually falling. In the US, soybean export sales are expected to be within a certain range, and Brazil's soybean production is expected to be high. The domestic supply pressure is large, and the price is expected to be supported, while rapeseed meal is expected to fluctuate [28][29][30]. - **Sugar**: International sugar prices are oscillating lower, and domestic sugar prices are oscillating. Globally, there will be a supply surplus in the 2025/26 season. In the short - term, international sugar prices may oscillate slightly stronger, and domestic sugar prices are expected to be range - bound. The strategy is to go long on dips for single - side trading, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money put options [31][34][35]. - **Oilseeds and Oils**: The oscillating market continues. External factors have led to short - term price fluctuations, and different oils have different supply - demand situations. The strategy is to go long on dips or conduct high - selling and low - buying band operations for single - side trading, and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [36][37][39]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: Spot prices are starting to correct, and the futures price is falling. The US corn futures are expected to be strongly oscillating in the short - term, while domestic corn prices in the Northeast are falling, and those in the North China are relatively strong. The strategy is to go long on dips for the outer - market December corn, short on rallies for the January corn, wait for corrections for the May and July corn, and conduct spread - narrowing operations for the January corn - starch spread [40][41][43]. - **Hogs**: The slaughter pressure persists, and the spot price is oscillating. The overall supply pressure remains, and the strategy is to stay on the sidelines for single - side trading, arbitrage, and sell wide - straddle strategies for options [44][45][46]. - **Peanuts**: The spot price is weak, and peanuts are oscillating at the bottom in the short - term. The price is affected by factors such as supply, demand, and quality. The strategy is to short on rallies for the January peanuts, go long on dips for the May peanuts with a stop - loss at 7800, conduct 1 - 5 peanut reverse spreads, and sell pk601 - P - 7600 options [46][47][48]. - **Eggs**: Demand is average, and egg prices are stable with a slight decline. The supply pressure is gradually easing, but the upside space is limited. The strategy is to stay on the sidelines for single - side trading, arbitrage, and options [49][50][52]. - **Apples**: Demand is average, and fruit prices are mainly stable. The cold - storage inventory is lower than last year, and the fundamentals are relatively strong, but it is recommended to stay on the sidelines due to recent large fluctuations [53][54][55]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The fundamental contradictions are not significant, and cotton prices are mainly oscillating. External factors and supply - demand situations at home and abroad affect the price. The strategy is to expect range - bound oscillations for US cotton and short - term oscillations for Zhengzhou cotton, and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [56][57][59]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: Steel prices are oscillating within a range, and there is still room to reduce hot - metal production. The industry is affected by policies, costs, and demand. The strategy is to expect a weakly oscillating downward trend for single - side trading, go long on the coil - to - rebar spread on dips, and stay on the sidelines for options [62][63][64]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Spot prices are correcting from high levels, and the futures market is weakly operating. After short - term replenishment, the market sentiment has changed. The strategy is to expect a weakly oscillating short - term trend without chasing short positions, consider going long on dips near previous lows in the medium - term, continue to hold the coking coal 1/5 reverse spread, and stay on the sidelines for options [64][65][66]. - **Iron Ore**: A bearish approach is recommended. The supply is increasing, and the domestic demand is weakening. The strategy is to expect a high - level bearish trend for single - side trading, enter a 1/5 inter - delivery high - level reverse spread, and stay on the sidelines for options [67][68][69]. - **Ferroalloys**: Supply and demand are both weak, and prices are oscillating within a cost - supported range. Different ferroalloys have different supply - demand and cost situations. The strategy is to expect bottom - oscillating trends for single - side trading, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [69][70][71]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Precious Metals**: NVIDIA boosts market sentiment, but the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve suppresses gold and silver prices. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short - term. The strategy is to hold long positions cautiously near the support level of the 18th, and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [72][74][76]. - **Copper**: Short - term attention should be paid to the lower support. Supply and demand and macro - factors affect the price. The strategy is to go long on dips, pay attention to the 85000 yuan/ton support level, and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [76][77][80]. - **Alumina**: Substantial production cuts have not been realized, and the price is weakly operating. The market is affected by factors such as production, supply, and long - term contracts. The strategy is to expect a short - term weak trend until the warehouse receipts are circulated, and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [80][81][83]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: Overseas economic data are unexpectedly absent, and Shanghai aluminum moves with the sector. The macro - environment and supply - demand fundamentals affect the price. The strategy is to stay on the sidelines in the short - term, pay attention to the narrowing of the spread between East China and Central China in the spot market, and go long on Shanghai aluminum and short on LME aluminum to narrow the spread, and stay on the sidelines for options [83][84]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Aluminum alloy moves with the aluminum price. The macro - environment and supply - demand fundamentals affect the price. The strategy is to stay on the sidelines in the short - term, wait for the market sentiment to digest, and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [85][86][87]. - **Zinc**: It shows a wide - range oscillation. Supply and demand and macro - factors affect the price. The strategy is to continue to hold profitable long positions, and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [87][88][90]. - **Lead**: It oscillates within a range. Supply and demand and macro - factors affect the price. The strategy is to close profitable short positions and stay on the sidelines, and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [90][91][94]. - **Nickel**: The cost is loosening, and the nickel price is oscillating downward. The oversupply of deliverable products and the macro - environment affect the price. The strategy is to short on rallies, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options [94][95][96]. - **Stainless Steel**: Supply and demand are both weak, and raw materials are under pressure. The industry is affected by factors such as investment plans and carbon taxes. The strategy is to short on rallies and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage [96][97][98]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Short - term partial profits can be realized, and new strategies can involve going long on dips near the support level. The price is affected by production capacity and market demand. [98]