专题报告 2025-08-27 碳酸锂：2025Q2 海外锂资源供给更新 报告要点： 2025 年二季度，海外矿山整体供给稳定，区域间有分化，西澳、北美项目出货量环比维持增 长，部分南美、非洲项目价格低位控制市场供给。随三季度锂价回调，预计海外矿山顺势将 迎来供给释放，西澳、南美、非洲三大产区下半年资源输出有望显著高于上半年，能缓解国 内大型矿山停产带来的缺口。后续资源端建议关注江西、青海、马里等区域的运营连续性。 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲（联系人） 有色研究员 从业资格号：F03121027 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 吴坤金 有色研究员 有色金属研究 | 碳酸锂 碳酸锂：2025Q2 海外锂资源供给更新 澳大利亚 2025 年二季度澳大利亚矿山出货量约为 100.7 万吨，环比大幅增长 16.9%。Greenbushes 和 Pilbara 贡献主要增量。2025 财年（2024 年 7 月-2025 年 6 月），澳大利亚五大矿山 （Greenbushes、Pilbara、 ...

智利矿业化工二季度营收同比下降19%至10亿雷亚尔。EBITDA同比下降25%至3.08亿美元，利润率降 至29.5%（同比收缩2.4个百分点）。锂业务部门持续承压，尽管销量保持相对稳定达5.31万吨（同比 +1%），但营收同比下降33%至4.45亿美元。 智通财经APP获悉，由于锂价持续疲软，全球顶尖的锂矿生产商之一智利矿业化工(SQM.US)第二季度 业绩表现不佳，美银认为，尽管杠杆率有所上升，智利矿业化工仍保持强劲的资产负债表——其极具竞 争力的锂生产成本优势使公司能够吸收锂市场的疲软，而不会出现重大的信用恶化，给予其34年期债 券"增持"评级。 中国或成为锂价短期企稳的关键变量。美银指出，中国已明确今年将"有序出清"10万吨锂云母产能，若 全部落实，理论可重新锚定2万美元/吨的边际成本定价。尽管执行节奏仍取决于地方，但政策信号已令 市场空头趋于谨慎。考虑到智利矿业化工现金成本全球最低（约4千美元/吨），即便价格反弹至1.2–1.4 万美元/吨区间，其吨毛利仍能维持70%以上，盈利弹性显著优于高成本矿山。 该行对34年期债券给予"增持"评级，反映了其相对于同业和智利其他资产的吸引力估值。对29年期和33 ...

彭博社8月20日报道，全球市值最大锂业公司SQM看好锂市场，决定于年内增加2 万吨碳酸锂销量。尽管二季度全球锂价下跌28%，但SQM仍坚持扩张计划，其下属地 方生产厂年内锂产量将增加10%。该公司透露，7月，SQM与澳大利亚合资公司 Kwinana完成首批氢氧化锂提取，计划2026年生产量达到5万吨，其中一半归SQM所 有。随着中国锂产量大幅收缩，SQM预计年内全球锂需求量将增加17%。 （原标题：智利锂业公司SQM拟增加锂销量） ...

In my previous article on Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile (NYSE: SQM ), published when the stock was trading at around $32.78, I maintained a buy stance supported by the company’s financial resilience andI am an individual investor with over five years of experience in personal investing, holding a PhD in Economics from UCEMA. My investment approach focuses on value companies with solid long-term potential. I share my knowledge with the community by offering analysis to support individual investors. My a ...

Group 1: Industry Insights - SQM reported a 28% decline in adjusted earnings to $307.9 million in Q2 due to falling lithium prices, which hit a multi-year low, but expects a price recovery driven by reduced production in China [1] - The global tablet shipment volume reached 39 million units in Q2 2025, marking a 9% year-on-year increase, supported by stable demand in China and EMEA regions [4] - The domestic lithium carbonate market experienced fluctuations, with a recent announcement from Jiangte Electric regarding the resumption of production at its subsidiary [6] Group 2: Market Prices - As of August 21, the price for battery-grade lithium carbonate is between 81,000 to 83,000 yuan per ton, while industrial-grade is between 78,500 to 79,500 yuan per ton [7] - The price for ternary materials ranges from 128,000 to 134,000 yuan per ton for single crystal 5 series and 146,000 to 151,000 yuan per ton for 8 series 811 type [8] - Phosphate lithium prices are stable, with power-type priced at 33,600 to 35,000 yuan per ton and energy storage-type at 32,600 to 33,200 yuan per ton [9] Group 3: Company Developments - BYD has launched a new line of lithium batteries for electric two and three-wheelers in partnership with JD Auto, offering eight products priced between 1,298 to 6,998 yuan [2] - Zhongwei New Materials signed a cooperation agreement with POSCO Future M to advance the production of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials [3] - Tianqi Lithium reported a net profit of 267 million yuan in the first half of the year, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.79% [13] Group 4: Battery and Energy Storage Market - The domestic lithium battery market remains stable, with global production expected to reach 2,100 GWh this year, and a slight increase in orders from second-tier battery manufacturers [15] - The domestic energy storage battery prices are stable, with a notable project in Inner Mongolia achieving a system price of 0.389 yuan per Wh [17] - New energy vehicle sales reached 244,000 units last week, showing a year-on-year increase of 13.10% [16]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant decline in lithium carbonate prices, which have dropped approximately 70% over the past year, leading to a supply surplus in the market [1] - SQM's second-quarter revenue was reported at $1.04 billion, falling short of the expected $1.07 billion [1] - The net profit for SQM in the same period was $88.4 million, also below the anticipated $144 million [1] Group 2 - The low lithium prices have had a notable impact on SQM's performance, with an adjusted EBITDA of $308 million in the second quarter, which is lower than the expected $334 million [1] - SQM has indicated that the weak lithium prices have decreased the economic viability of some lithium projects [1]

Group 1 - The investment thesis indicates a potential turnaround in the lithium market prices, suggesting an opportunity for increased exposure in lithium investments [1] - The article highlights that there are early signs of a price recovery in the lithium market, particularly noted during the summer months [1] - The analyst expresses a positive outlook based on forecasts for a sustained increase in lithium prices, which may benefit companies involved in lithium production [1]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q2 2025, the company experienced a revenue decline of over 3% year-on-year due to lower lithium prices compared to earlier in the year [6][9] - The company expects yearly sales volume from Chilean operations to increase by at least 10% versus 2024 [8][9] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Iodine was the most profitable segment in Q2 with an adjusted gross margin of 57%, contributing over 50% to total company gross profit [9] - Sales volume for the Chile lithium division reached 51,700 metric tons in Q2, similar to Q2 last year, with expectations for Q3 sales to be at least 10% higher than Q2 [32][70] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Strong demand growth for lithium is noted, particularly from the EV sector in China and Europe [6][7] - Prices for lithium carbonate in China have been recovering, with expectations for Q3 prices to be higher than Q2 [32][33] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is confident in capturing strong fundamentals in the lithium market while maintaining solid results across all business segments [10] - The strategy remains focused on producing at full capacity and expanding in line with expected market growth [33] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted a change in market dynamics with recent price improvements and strong demand growth [6][8] - The company is optimistic about the iodine market, expecting solid fundamentals to continue despite supply constraints [20][51] Other Important Information - The Tijuana refinery is now complete and has delivered its first product on spec, with a ramp-up underway to produce 50,000 metric tons of lithium hydroxide annually [8] - The company is working on the Salar Futuro project, with environmental studies expected to be submitted next year [43][44] Q&A Session Summary Question: Midterm or long-term goals for SPN - The company aims to grow its SPN business by adding services and products while maintaining solid margins [12][14] Question: Expansion of Mount Holland - The expansion decision will not be made in 2025, with ongoing engineering studies and approvals [15][16] Question: Iodine price sustainability - Demand for iodine is expected to grow, but supply constraints may limit growth [18][20] Question: Mt. Holland mine economics - Current production costs are not reflective of long-term projections, but the company remains profitable [39][40] Question: Update on Codelco deal - The process with Codelco is moving positively, with expectations for completion in the coming months [54][66] Question: Current lithium inventory levels - The company expects to have close to 230,000 metric tons of lithium inventory, aligning with projected sales [69][70]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenues decreased by more than 3% year on year due to lower lithium prices compared to earlier in the year [7] - Lithium sales volumes from the Salar De Atacama were almost flat compared to last year, impacted by lower prices triggering contract floors [8] - The company expects yearly sales volume from Chilean operations to increase by at least 10% versus 2024 [9] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Iodine was the most profitable segment in Q2 with an adjusted gross margin of 57%, contributing over 50% to total company gross profit [9] - The specialty plant nutrition business remained stable, reflecting resilient demand across key markets [10] - Potassium volumes were lower as guided, but prices remained firm [11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Strong demand growth for lithium is observed from EV and BEST sectors, particularly in China and Europe [7] - Lithium carbonate prices in China have been recovering, with expectations for higher sales prices in Q3 compared to Q2 [33] - The company anticipates that sales in the second semester of the year will be higher than the first semester and higher than the second semester of last year [33] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is confident in capturing strong fundamentals of the lithium market while delivering solid results across all businesses [11] - The expansion decision for Mt. Holland will not be made in 2025, with periodic reviews planned for the following year [16] - The company aims to maintain production at full capacity and expand in line with expected market growth [34] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted a change in market dynamics with recent price improvements and strong demand growth [7] - The iodine market is expected to see solid fundamentals, with demand growth anticipated next year if capacity is available [20] - The company remains optimistic about the business outlook, citing strong demand and a positive price environment despite volatility [70] Other Important Information - The Tijuana refinery is now complete and has delivered its first product on spec, on budget, and on time [8] - The company is working on the Salar Futuro project, with environmental studies expected to be submitted next year [43][44] - The company is investing significantly to increase iodine supply to meet customer needs [51] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the midterm or long-term goal for SPN? - The strategy involves growing volume and adding services and products to maintain a solid brand and pricing [14] Question: What is the current thinking on the Mt. Holland expansion? - The expansion decision will not be made in 2025, with ongoing engineering studies and approvals [16] Question: What will break iodine prices? - Demand is expected to grow, but supply constraints due to environmental restrictions may limit growth [52] Question: What is the current status of the deal with Codelco? - The process is moving positively, with expectations for completion in the next few weeks [66] Question: What is the current lithium inventory level? - The company expects to have close to 230,000 metric tons of lithium inventory, aligning with projected sales [68]

Financial Performance - SQM's Q2 2025 revenue reached US$1,043 million[7], gross profit was US$254 million[7], and net income totaled US$308 million[7] - Earnings per share stood at US$0.31[7] - Lithium LTM revenue reached $1,977 million[12], with a gross profit of $410 million[12] - Iodine LTM revenue reached US$985 million[23], with a gross profit of US$523 million[23] - Specialty Plant Nutrition LTM revenue reached US$946 million[33], with a gross profit of US$146 million[33] - Potassium LTM revenue reached US$217 million[40], with a gross profit of US$28 million[40] - Industrial Chemicals LTM revenue reached US$74 million[46], with a gross profit of US$28 million[46] Market Dynamics and Outlook - The global lithium market is expected to grow by approximately 17% in 2025[18] - SQM anticipates a sales volume growth of around 10% in the Lithium Chile division compared to 2024[18] - The company expects to sell approximately 20,000 tons of LCE for the International Lithium Division in 2025[18] - Global iodine demand growth is updated to less than 1% in 2025 compared to 2024[29] - SQM expects a market growth rate of around 4-5% in 2025 for Specialty Plant Nutrition[36] - Potassium sales volume for 2025 is expected to decline by 50% compared to 2024[42] Strategic Investments - Total Capex for 2025 is estimated at US$750 million, including maintenance[21] - Iodine and Nitrates total capex for 2025 is approximately US$350 million, including maintenance[31] Market Share - SQM holds approximately 17% of the global lithium chemical market[12] - SQM holds approximately 37% of the global iodine market[28] - SQM holds approximately 41% of the global KNO3 market[38] - SQM holds less than 1% of the global potash market[43] - SQM holds approximately 32% of the global industrial potassium nitrate market[49]