Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][8]. Core Views - The company has shown impressive profit performance, with a focus on the recovery of outbound travel and international growth. The strong growth in net operating income and profit is attributed to heightened travel sentiment and the easing of supply constraints in the tourism industry [1][4]. Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2024, the company achieved net operating income of 11.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.3 billion yuan, also up 28% year-on-year. The Non-GAAP net profit was 4.1 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 96% [4][6]. - The breakdown of revenue sources includes: - Transportation ticketing: 5 billion yuan (YoY +20%) - Accommodation bookings: 4.5 billion yuan (YoY +29%) - Travel vacation: 0.88 billion yuan (YoY +129%) - Business travel management: 0.51 billion yuan (YoY +15%) [4][6]. Outbound Travel Business - The company leads the industry in the recovery of outbound travel, with hotel and flight bookings returning to 90%-100% of pre-pandemic levels. The company reported over 100% year-on-year growth in outbound flight and hotel bookings for Q1 2024, with prices normalizing to 115% of 2019 levels [4][5]. - The company expects outbound travel to continue leading the market by 20-30 percentage points, with estimates suggesting that by the end of 2024, outbound travel from China could recover to 80% of 2019 levels [4][6]. Domestic Business - Domestic hotel and flight bookings grew by 20%-30% year-on-year in Q1 2024, driven by changing consumer preferences for personalized and high-quality travel experiences. The company anticipates double-digit growth in domestic travel bookings for Q2 2024 [5][6]. Global OTA Business - The Trip.com platform saw revenue growth of approximately 80% year-on-year in Q1 2024, contributing to 10% of the group's total revenue. The inbound travel segment experienced a remarkable 400% year-on-year increase in bookings, supported by visa-free policies for citizens from over 15 countries [6][7]. - The mobile booking ratio for Trip.com reached 65%, with major Asian markets exceeding 75%, indicating a strong focus on mobile platform investments [6][7]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to benefit from the release of domestic travel demand, the recovery of outbound travel, and the expansion of its global OTA business. The revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are 53.2 billion, 61.4 billion, and 67.7 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits of 14.8 billion, 17.5 billion, and 20 billion yuan [6][7]. - The target market capitalization for 2024 is set at 328.6 billion yuan, with a target price of 518 HKD, maintaining the "Buy" rating [6][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 519 (USD 67) [5][3][1] Core Insights - The company reported a 29% year-on-year revenue growth in Q1, slightly exceeding market expectations, with adjusted net profit reaching RMB 4.1 billion, surpassing market expectations by 45% [2][1] - The adjusted profit margin improved by 12 percentage points to 34% year-on-year, benefiting from strong revenue growth and operational efficiency [2][1] - Domestic hotel and flight bookings grew over 20% year-on-year, while outbound bookings more than doubled [2][1] - The international OTA business saw approximately 80% year-on-year revenue growth, contributing about 10% to total revenue [2][1] Financial Performance - Q1 revenue was RMB 11.9 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 29% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 15% [2][3] - Adjusted net profit for 2024 is projected to be RMB 14.8 billion, up 13% from previous estimates, with a profit margin of 28.1% [3][2] - The company expects 2024 revenue to remain unchanged at RMB 52.7 billion, reflecting an 18% year-on-year growth [3][2] Market Trends - The company is focusing on refined user engagement strategies, including tailored packages for younger users and senior citizens [2][1] - Outbound travel is expected to recover faster than the industry average, with predictions indicating a recovery to 80% of 2019 levels by the end of 2024 [2][1] - The international business's revenue potential is anticipated to grow through cross-selling opportunities and the release of inbound travel potential [2][1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Ctrip Group [2][3]. Core Views - The company exceeded expectations in Q1 2024, benefiting from improvements in the OTA industry landscape and strong growth in outbound and overseas travel, with profit margins still on an upward trajectory [2]. - Adjusted net profit estimates for 2024, 2025, and 2026 have been raised to RMB 14.299 billion, RMB 17.075 billion, and RMB 19.580 billion, reflecting increases of +14.16%, +16.92%, and +19.40% respectively [2]. - The target market capitalization has been adjusted to RMB 328.9 billion, corresponding to a target price of HKD 528 based on a 23x PE valuation for 2024 [2]. Financial Summary - Q1 2024 revenue reached RMB 11.92 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of +29.42%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 4.312 billion, up +27.76% [2]. - Adjusted net profit for Q1 2024 was RMB 4.055 billion, showing a significant increase of +96.37%, and adjusted EBITDA was RMB 3.974 billion, up +40.92% with an EBITDA margin of 33.3%, an increase of 2.7 percentage points [2]. - The revenue growth slightly exceeded guidance (+29.42% vs. expected 24-29%), while adjusted EBITDA significantly surpassed expectations (RMB 3.974 billion vs. expected RMB 3.2-3.4 billion) [2]. Market Position and Growth Drivers - The company demonstrated strong performance in group travel, with a growth rate of +129%, driven primarily by outbound travel demand, as international flights have recovered to 70% of pre-pandemic levels [2]. - Ctrip's overseas segment, Trip.com, experienced rapid growth, with a revenue increase of 80% in Q1 2024, contributing to 10% of total revenue [2]. - The report highlights Ctrip's brand strength and product supply advantages, particularly in high-tier cities, where travel consumption remains resilient despite concerns over growth rates from a high base [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Trip.com Group-S (09961 HK) [1][3] Core Views - Q1 2024 saw strong profit growth with revenue of RMB 11 91 billion, net profit of RMB 4 31 billion, and Non-GAAP net profit of RMB 4 06 billion, up 29%, 28%, and 96% YoY respectively [1][7] - Adjusted net margin reached 34%, up 12 percentage points YoY and 8 percentage points QoQ, driven by the recovery of high-margin outbound travel and operational leverage [1][7] - Domestic travel benefited from increased online penetration, while outbound travel saw a strong recovery, with international business expanding rapidly and inbound travel growing significantly [1][8] - Non-GAAP operating profit grew 44% YoY, with a margin of 32%, up 3 percentage points YoY, supported by operational leverage and improved marketing efficiency [1][9] Revenue Breakdown - Domestic hotel and air ticket bookings grew over 20% YoY, with vacation business exceeding 2019 levels [1][8] - Outbound hotel and air ticket bookings surged over 100% YoY, recovering to over 90% of 2019 levels [1][8] - International Trip com revenue grew approximately 80% YoY, with inbound bookings increasing over 4 times [1][8] Profitability - Gross margin stood at 81 2%, down 1 percentage point YoY, but high-margin outbound travel contributed positively [1][9] - Adjusted sales expense ratio improved by 0 4 percentage points YoY, remaining well-controlled at 19 1% [1][9] Outlook - Domestic travel growth is expected to slow due to high base effects, but online penetration will continue to support performance [2] - Outbound travel is expected to remain strong, with further recovery during the summer season, driven by improved flight capacity, lower ticket prices, and visa process enhancements [2] - The report slightly raises 2024 revenue growth forecasts and expects Non-GAAP net profit for 2024-2026 to be RMB 15 5/18 7/22 0 billion, with EPS of RMB 23/27/32 and dynamic PE of 18/15/13x [2] Industry Position - Trip com Group is a leading one-stop travel service provider with a strong foothold in both domestic and international markets, benefiting from its high-end traffic accumulation and supply chain advantages [2]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "BUY" rating for Trip.com Group (TCOM) with a target price of US$65.8, up from the previous target of US$49.0, indicating a potential upside of 17.9% from the current price of US$55.83 [3][12]. Core Insights - Trip.com Group reported a net revenue of RMB11.9 billion for Q1 2024, representing a year-over-year increase of 29.4%, which exceeded both the forecast and consensus estimates [2]. - The company is positioned to capitalize on globalization opportunities beyond the current pent-up demand in the travel industry, leveraging its one-stop shop business model and strong customer service capabilities [2][7]. - Management anticipates that international business will contribute over 20% of total revenue within the next 3-5 years, supported by a significant total addressable market in Asia that is 1.5 times that of China [7][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2024, Trip.com achieved a non-GAAP operating income of RMB3.8 billion, surpassing forecasts due to better gross profit margins and controlled marketing expenses [2][10]. - The company expects revenue for Q2 2024 to reach RMB12.9 billion, reflecting a 15% year-over-year growth [2]. Market Position and Growth Strategy - Trip.com’s domestic travel bookings grew at a double-digit rate year-over-year in Q2 2024, outpacing the overall market [9]. - The international flight capacity rebounded to 70% of pre-pandemic levels, with Trip.com outperforming the industry by 20-30% in outbound travel bookings [8][9]. - The inbound travel revenue, which accounted for approximately 20% of Trip.com’s revenue in Q1 2024, is expected to further support revenue growth [7]. Operational Efficiency - The non-GAAP operating profit margin for Q1 2024 was 31.6%, significantly better than forecasted, driven by disciplined sales and marketing spending [2][10]. - The company aims to maintain efficient marketing expenditures focused on return on investment, which is expected to stabilize the operating profit margin despite a high base [2][10]. Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are RMB52.8 billion, RMB59.5 billion, and RMB65.8 billion respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 18.5%, 12.6%, and 10.6% [10][11]. - The gross profit margin is expected to remain strong at around 81.3% for 2024, with operating margins projected to improve to 26.2% [10][11].

携程集团-S（9961.HK）2024Q1业绩点评 Q1 经调整利润超预期，国际业务保持高增 2024年05月22日 事件：2024年5月21日，携程集团（9961.HK/TCOM）发布2024年Q1未 推荐 维持评级 经审计业绩，24Q1净收入119亿元，yoy+29%（超彭博一致预期116亿元）； 当前价格： 440.00港元 归母净利润 43 亿元，净利率 36.2%；上年同期为 34 亿元（利润率 36.7%）； Non-GAAP 净利润41 亿元（超彭博一致预期为 28 亿元），利润率 34.1%；上 年同期为21亿元（Non-GAAP利润率22.5%）。 [Table_Author] ➢ 住宿、交通稳健增长，度假业务显著恢复。分业务来看，24Q1住宿收入45 亿元，yoy+29%，qoq+15%；交通收入50亿元，yoy+20%，qoq+22%；度 假收入8.83亿元，yoy+129%，qoq+25%；商旅收入5.11亿元，yoy+15%， qoq-19%主要系春节假期企业客户出行相对温和；其他收入 10.31 亿元， yoy+39%，qoq+4%。 ➢ Q1销售费用投放较少，利润表现超预期。24 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Trip.com Group reported a net revenue of RMB 11.9 billion for Q1 2024, representing a 29% increase year-over-year and a 15% increase quarter-over-quarter [23] - Adjusted EBITDA was RMB 4 billion for Q1 2024, compared to RMB 2.8 billion in the same period last year, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 33% [25] - Diluted earnings per ordinary share were RMB 6.38 or USD 0.88 for Q1 2024, with non-GAAP diluted earnings per ordinary share at RMB 6 or USD 0.83 [25] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Accommodation reservation revenue for Q1 was RMB 4.5 billion, a 29% increase year-over-year and a 15% increase quarter-over-quarter [23] - Transportation ticketing revenue reached RMB 5 billion, representing a 20% increase year-over-year and a 22% increase quarter-over-quarter [23] - Packaged-tour revenue surged to RMB 883 million, a 129% increase year-over-year and a 25% increase quarter-over-quarter [23] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The outbound travel market saw bookings fully recover to pre-pandemic levels during major holiday periods, with outbound hotel and air ticket bookings increasing by over 100% year-over-year [13][23] - Inbound travel bookings increased by 400% year-over-year, driven by visa-free policies and strong demand from key markets [16] - The domestic market showed robust growth, with hotel and air ticket bookings increasing by 20% to 30% year-over-year [12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on expanding its user base in second- and third-tier cities in China and enhancing user acquisition and cross-selling ratios [29] - Trip.com aims to capture the growing inbound travel market in China, which is projected to be a multitrillion RMB opportunity [29] - The introduction of tailor-made products for the silver generation is expected to tap into a significant market opportunity valued at RMB 1 trillion [30] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the sustainability of strong performance for the rest of 2024, citing a transition from pent-up demand to a more normalized demand environment [11] - The company anticipates continued strong demand across travel segments, despite potential challenges from declining hotel and air prices [26] - Management remains optimistic about the travel market's recovery, particularly in outbound travel, which is expected to reach 80% of pre-pandemic levels by year-end [41] Other Important Information - The company has introduced the Old Friends Club initiative to cater to the travel preferences of the silver generation, aiming to bridge the gap between peak and off-peak travel seasons [8] - Trip.com is committed to social responsibility, creating job opportunities and supporting local communities through strategic investments [21] Q&A Session Summary Question: What growth drivers should investors pay attention to? - Management highlighted the focus on expanding user base in lower-tier cities and the growth of outbound travel as key drivers [29] Question: Have you observed a decrease in hotel ADR and RevPAR? - Management confirmed a decline in domestic ADR influenced by increased outbound travel and improved hotel availability in lower-tier cities [33] Question: What was the business performance during the Labor Day holiday? - Management reported record high domestic and outbound travel bookings during the holiday, with outbound bookings surpassing 120% of 2019 levels [38] Question: What factors will impact the recovery of outbound travel? - Management noted visa applications and flight capacity as major factors influencing the recovery of outbound travel [42] Question: How does Trip.com plan to capture the inbound travel market? - Management emphasized the rich offerings of China and the introduction of free-visa policies to attract international travelers [47] Question: What is the contribution of inbound travel to Trip.com? - Inbound travel now contributes over 20% to overall revenues, reflecting significant growth [49]

Core Insights - Trip.com Group Limited (TCOM) reported strong first-quarter 2024 results, with earnings and revenues exceeding expectations and showing year-over-year growth [1][2] - The growth is attributed to increased domestic and outbound travel demand in China, supported by stabilized supply and relaxed visa requirements [1] - The company is optimistic about investments in product and technology innovations to enhance user travel experiences [1] Financial Performance - Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) reached 83 cents, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 62 cents by 33.9%, compared to 45 cents in the prior-year quarter [2] - Net revenues totaled $1.65 billion, exceeding the consensus mark of $1.61 billion by 2.3%, and up from $1.34 billion in the prior-year quarter [2] - Revenue growth was driven by accommodation reservations (29% increase), transportation ticketing (20% increase), packaged tours (129% increase), and corporate travel (15% increase) [2] - Adjusted EBITDA was $550 million, reflecting a 42.9% year-over-year increase, with an adjusted EBITDA margin expanding by 200 basis points to 33% [2] Balance Sheet - As of March 31, 2024, the company had total cash and cash equivalents, restricted cash, short-term investments, and held-to-maturity deposits amounting to $11.3 billion, an increase from $10.9 billion as of December 31, 2023 [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 509.00, indicating a potential upside of 16.6% from the current price of HKD 436.40 [2][8]. Core Insights - The report highlights that while hotel prices in mainland China have decreased, the booking volume has exceeded expectations, leading to an anticipated stable profit margin for the year [1]. - For Q1 2024, the company reported revenues of RMB 11.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 29%, slightly above market expectations. Adjusted net profit rose by 96% to RMB 4.1 billion, with a net profit margin of 34% [1][4]. - The report anticipates that the company's outbound revenue will nearly fully recover to 2019 levels, with international business expected to grow by over 30% [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 2024 revenue breakdown: Hotel accommodation revenue increased by 29%, transportation by 20%, vacation packages by 129%, and business travel by 15% [1]. - Adjusted net profit for Q1 2024 was RMB 4.1 billion, exceeding expectations by 32% and 45% compared to market forecasts [1][4]. - The company maintained a stable marketing expense ratio at 19%, better than the expected 22-23% [1]. Market Outlook - The report projects a 10% decline in hotel prices in Q2 2024, with a potential marginal improvement in Q4 2024. Despite price declines, the company is expected to maintain double-digit growth in booking volumes due to strong brand recognition and supply chain advantages [1]. - The company is expected to achieve a 30.1% adjusted net profit margin in 2024, with adjusted net profit and earnings per share forecasts raised by 12% and 27% respectively [1][4]. Valuation - The target price has been adjusted from HKD 440 to HKD 509 based on a 20x P/E ratio for 2024, reflecting confidence in sustained travel demand and the company's competitive advantages in both domestic and international markets [2][4].

Financial Performance - Trip.com reported quarterly earnings of $0.83 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.62 per share, and up from $0.45 per share a year ago, representing an earnings surprise of 33.87% [1] - The company posted revenues of $1.65 billion for the quarter ended March 2024, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2.25%, and an increase from $1.34 billion year-over-year [1] - Over the last four quarters, Trip.com has consistently surpassed consensus EPS and revenue estimates [1] Stock Performance - Trip.com shares have increased approximately 57.8% since the beginning of the year, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's gain of 11.2% [2] Earnings Outlook - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $0.76 on revenues of $1.84 billion, and for the current fiscal year, it is $2.96 on revenues of $7.36 billion [4] - The estimate revisions trend for Trip.com is currently unfavorable, resulting in a Zacks Rank 4 (Sell), indicating expected underperformance in the near future [4] Industry Context - The Leisure and Recreation Services industry, to which Trip.com belongs, is currently ranked in the bottom 43% of over 250 Zacks industries, suggesting potential challenges ahead [5] - Vail Resorts, another company in the same industry, is expected to report quarterly earnings of $9.99 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 22.1%, with revenues anticipated to be $1.31 billion, up 5.9% from the previous year [6]