公众号记得加星标⭐️，第一时间看推送不会错过。 研调机构Counterpoint发布报告指出，台积电预计在2028年前将晶圆14厂12英寸成熟制程产能削减 15%至20%。主要目的是解决传统工艺节点产能利用率低下的问题，同时释放资源以支持先进封装技 术的拓展。 根据目前的形势，台积电预计到 2028 年将逐步淘汰 Fab14 工厂约 50KWPM 的产能，通过多元化的 制造渠道提高运营灵活性和盈利能力，同时维持客户供应。 台积电表示，经与客户讨论，让资源运用更具弹性，也就是优化资源以支持客户。台积电会一如既往 地支持客户，即使是在8英寸晶圆业务方面，只要客户有好的业务发展，台积电都会持续提供支援。 参考链接 htt ps://mone y.udn. c om/mone y/st or y/ 5612/ 92847 84 htt ps:// c ount e r poi ntr e s e a r c h. c om/ e n/i nsi ghts/TSMC-t o-Cut-Fa b1 4-Ma t ur e -Node -Ca pa c it y-t o-Re fl e c t-Cha ngi ng- Dem ...

Core Viewpoint - The demand for AI is driving a potential price increase in global wafer foundries, affecting even non-mainstream 8-inch wafers [1][2]. Supply Side Summary - TSMC and Samsung are gradually reducing 8-inch wafer production, with TSMC aiming for partial plant shutdowns by 2027. This reduction is expected to lead to a 0.3% decline in global 8-inch wafer capacity in 2025, entering negative growth. In 2026, despite some Chinese manufacturers planning slight capacity expansions, the overall capacity is projected to decrease by 2.4% due to the larger reductions from TSMC and Samsung [1][2]. Demand Side Summary - The increase in power IC orders for AI servers and the trend of IC localization in China are boosting demand for local wafer foundries, leading to a significant rise in capacity utilization rates for some Chinese manufacturers starting mid-2025. This has prompted these manufacturers to initiate price increases for foundry services, effective in the second half of 2025. The overall average capacity utilization for global 8-inch wafers is expected to rise to 85-90% in 2026, up from 75-80% in 2025, with some foundries planning to raise prices by 5-20% across all customers and process platforms [2][3]. Price Increase Considerations - Despite the anticipated price increases, actual price hikes for 8-inch wafers may be moderated due to concerns in consumer electronics and rising costs from memory and advanced processes impacting surrounding IC costs [3].

Group 1 - The three recommended chip stocks for 2025 were Nvidia, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, and ASML Holding, all of which delivered significant gains, with Nvidia rising 39%, Taiwan Semiconductor increasing by 54%, and ASML also up by 54% [1][2] - Each company plays a distinct role in the chip supply chain: Nvidia designs GPUs, Taiwan Semiconductor manufactures chips based on Nvidia's designs, and ASML produces specialized machines for chip manufacturing [4][5][6] - For the next fiscal year, expected growth rates are 51% for Nvidia, 31% for Taiwan Semiconductor, and 15% for ASML, indicating a disparity in growth expectations among the three companies [6] Group 2 - ASML is currently trading at 34 times forward earnings, while Nvidia and Taiwan Semiconductor are trading at 25 and 21 times forward earnings, respectively, suggesting that ASML may be overvalued relative to its growth rate [8] - Given the growth expectations and valuations, Taiwan Semiconductor and Nvidia are considered better investment options for 2026 compared to ASML [8]

Group 1 - TSMC reported strong sales growth, with a 36% increase in 2025 revenue and a guidance for a further 30% rise in 2026, aiming for a compound annual growth rate of 25% through 2029 [3][4] - The company is highly profitable, with gross margin expanding from 59% in 2024 to 62.3% in 2025, and operating margin increasing from 49% to 54% [5][4] - TSMC benefits from strong AI tailwinds, with high-performance computing (HPC) accounting for 58% of revenue in 2025 and a growth rate of 48% year over year [7][8] Group 2 - Capital expenditures (capex) increased to $41 billion in 2025 from $30 billion in 2024, with plans to raise capex to about $54 billion in 2026, focusing on advanced process technologies [8][4] - The market is optimistic about TSMC's increased capex, as it indicates potential for higher growth [8]

百年大变局，世界在变，历史在变，时代在变，更有台湾媒体评价世界正以光速在变，而台湾面临的内 外部环境也已发生翻天覆地的变化。 当台积电的晶圆厂一座座在美国建立，当5000亿美元投资胁迫被包装成"双赢奇迹"，台湾民众已在不知 不觉中被牺牲了未来。美国商务部长卢特尼克直言不讳，这5000亿美元只是"头期款"，目标是把台湾半 导体产能的40%搬走。可笑的是，台湾当局还在吹嘘"争取到与日韩同等待遇"，却闭口不谈日韩是主权 国家，有谈判筹码，而台湾是被绑在战车上的附庸，只是被摆上了餐桌。当台积电的工程师流向美国， 岛内的科研经费被抽空，下一代青年只能在海外为美国科技打工，所谓"台湾模式"已经成为笑柄。台美 所谓协定，根本不是什么经济合作，而是对台湾经济命脉的系统性肢解——用降5%关税的甜头，换走 整个产业的脊梁。民进党一边高喊"护台神山"，一边亲手把神山的四梁八柱运往美国，还硬要百姓相信 这是"尊严的代价"。可耻！ 当一个地方的经济命脉被外部势力以"投资"之名层层剥离，当它的未来被绑定在另一个国家的选举周期 上——这样的"合作"，不过是被殖民的新装、被奴役的变种。美国何曾真心保护台湾，它只想要台湾的 芯片、台湾的工厂、 ...

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing will benefit from the same tailwinds in 2026 as it did in 2025.In January 2025, I predicted that Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM +2.21%) would rocket higher throughout the year. That prediction ended up being dead-on, as the stock soared nearly 54% higher throughout 2025. That's an impressive one-year return for the computer chip manufacturer and it would cause some investors to hesitate on the stock, thinking it has already had its run. But I'm not ready to give u ...

A little patience could go a long way for investors.One of the most important tech companies in the world is semiconductor (chip) producer Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM +2.21%), or TSMC. It's the world's largest semiconductor foundry and one of the most valuable companies, with a market cap of over $1.7 trillion as of market open on Jan. 21.If TSMC's stock price momentum were to continue, it could be a stock that turns $1,000 into $16,000. It won't happen overnight or in the next year -- or even i ...

最近，不少芯片设计公司在晶圆厂那里吃到了"闭门羹"，不少晶圆厂反馈：部分成熟工艺的产能已经开 始不好投片。然而，这并非传统意义上"缺芯"的简单回归，而是 AI 溢出效应引发的一场深刻连锁反 应。 8英寸，巨头退场，利弊如何？ 在 8 英寸晶圆的历史坐标上，2026 年注定是一个分水岭。台积电与三星这两家执掌全球制程牛耳的巨 头，正不约而同地选择关掉一些8英寸晶圆厂。 台积电在 2025 年 8 月对外表示，将在未来两年内逐步淘汰 6 英寸晶圆制造业务，并继续整合其 8 英寸 晶圆生产能力以提升效率。目前台积电在台湾仍拥有一座 6 英寸晶圆厂与四座 8 英寸晶圆厂用于成熟节 点芯片制造。TrendForce 援引台媒信息称，台积电 8 英寸 Fab 5 预计将在 2027 年底前后停止生产，同 时 6 英寸 Fab 2 也将在 2027 年停产。 三星方面也出现类似动作。据报道，三星计划关停韩国器兴（Giheung）的 8 英寸 S7 厂，时间窗口落在 2026 年下半年，对应产能减少约 5 万片/月。需要强调的是，这并非"三星全面退出 8 英寸"——器兴仍 有 S6、S8 等产线继续运转。但 The Elec ...

Core Viewpoint - The global semiconductor industry is expected to experience stronger demand, particularly driven by the AI computing infrastructure and a "super cycle" in semiconductor equipment manufacturing, benefiting companies involved in AI chips and DRAM/NAND storage expansion [1][3]. Semiconductor Equipment Sector - KeyBanc Capital Markets highlights that semiconductor equipment manufacturers will be the largest beneficiaries of the AI chip and storage capacity expansion trends [1]. - Citigroup predicts a "Phase 2 bull market" for the semiconductor equipment sector, suggesting a shift from valuation recovery to sustained profit growth, with leading companies like ASML, Lam Research, and Applied Materials being key players [3]. - The semiconductor equipment sector is expected to see significant growth due to the ongoing demand for AI computing and storage solutions, with a focus on advanced manufacturing processes [4][5]. AI Infrastructure Investment - The construction of large-scale AI data centers by tech giants like Microsoft, Google, and Meta is accelerating the expansion of advanced AI chip production and storage capacity [4]. - The global AI infrastructure investment wave is projected to reach $3 trillion to $4 trillion by 2030, indicating that the current phase is just the beginning [5]. - The semiconductor market is expected to grow significantly, with a forecasted value of $772.2 billion in 2025 and $975.5 billion in 2026, driven by strong demand for AI GPUs and storage systems [6][9]. Market Dynamics - The demand for DRAM/NAND storage chips is surging, with prices increasing due to the heightened importance of these products in AI training and inference systems [10]. - TSMC reported a record gross margin exceeding 60% and raised its 2026 revenue growth forecast to nearly 30%, indicating strong demand for AI-related chip manufacturing [10][11]. - The semiconductor investment chain driven by AI demand is expected to lead to increased capital expenditures (capex) from major manufacturers like SK Hynix, Samsung, and Intel [12][13]. Company-Specific Insights - KeyBanc maintains an "overweight" rating on AEI Industries, citing its strong position in the data center sector and potential for revenue growth in semiconductor manufacturing equipment [14]. - Applied Materials is recognized for its diverse product offerings across various semiconductor manufacturing processes, with expectations for significant revenue growth in the coming years [15][16]. - MKS Instruments is positioned to benefit from the ongoing demand for advanced packaging and semiconductor manufacturing technologies, with a focus on maintaining a strong market share in NAND and advanced packaging sectors [18].

（来源：寰球财评） 台积电这个曾经的"护台神山"，在美国亚利桑那州的沙漠里，硬生生把一场商业扩张，演成了一场进退 两难的苦情戏。 回想当初，张忠谋老爷子那句话真是说得一针见血。他在好几年前就撂过狠话，说在美国制造芯片的成 本，比台湾要高出至少50%。这不仅仅是多掏钱的事儿，而是直接会把公司的竞争力给磨没了。当时很 多人觉得，老头子是不是太保守了？毕竟美国那边拿着补贴的大棒在招手，客户苹果、英伟达也在那头 喊着"供应链安全"，去不去似乎由不得台积电选。 结果呢？几年折腾下来，张忠谋当年的那些"泼冷水"式的预言，全成了台积电商业报表上甩不掉的阴 影。 台积电当初宣布去亚利桑那建厂，给出的预算是120亿美元。这在当时看来，虽然不便宜，但也还在可 控范围内，算是一次战略对冲。可现在的剧本完全变了样。这个数字就像滚雪球，先是跳到了400亿， 紧接着又攀升到650亿，到了最新的规划，总投资额竟然逼近了1650亿美元。 但这套逻辑，在美国彻底水土不服了。 在美国招工，那是真的难。别说顶尖精英了，就连合格的熟练技工都凑不齐。好不容易招来的人，也受 不了台积电的节奏。有离职的工程师吐槽，半夜两点被叫起来修设备是常态，但美国工人 ...