②大型科技股多数下跌，谷歌跌超2%，英伟达跌逾1%，特斯拉跌超1%，亚马逊跌0.65%，苹果跌 0.27%，微软涨超1%，脸书涨0.4%； ③ 热门中概股涨跌不一，蔚来涨近2%，百度、世纪互联涨超1%，阿里巴巴、知乎、哔哩哔哩跌超 1%，小鹏汽车跌超2%； ①美国三大股指收盘涨跌不一，道指涨1.34%报48704.01点，标普500指数涨0.21%报6901点，纳指跌 0.25%报23593.86点； ⑦纽约尾盘，美元指数跌0.28%报98.36，离岸人民币对美元涨93个基点报7.0511； ⑧伦敦基本金属多数上涨，LME期锡涨4.69%报41880.00美元/吨，LME期锌涨3.76%报3198.00美元/吨， LME期铜涨2.40%报11833.50美元/吨，LME期铝涨0.98%报2895.00美元/吨，LME期铅涨0.18%报1983.50 美元/吨，LME期镍跌0.29%报14610.00美元/吨； ⑨美债收益率涨跌不一，2年期美债收益率涨0.23个基点报3.538%，3年期美债收益率持平报3.586%，5 年期美债收益率涨0.36个基点报3.733%，10年期美债收益率涨0.78个基点报4.155 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: China Internet and Other Services, specifically focusing on the AI sector in China - **Key Development**: Approval of Nvidia's H200 chip for sale to approved customers in China, enhancing AI capabilities in the region [1][2] Core Insights and Arguments - **Geopolitical Context**: Reduced geopolitical tensions are beneficial for China's AI enablers and adopters, lowering the risk of losing access to high-performing GPUs [1][3] - **Performance Comparison**: The H200 chip offers approximately 6x faster performance and 50% more memory compared to its predecessor, the H20, but at over 2x the average selling price (ASP) [2] - **Regulatory Outlook**: No significant pushback from Chinese regulators is expected regarding the purchase of H200 chips by Chinese cloud service providers (CSPs) [3] - **Impact on Local Chips**: While local chips can address inference computing, they cannot yet replace the H200 for model training, indicating a continued reliance on high-performing GPUs for scaling China's large language models (LLMs) [3][4] - **Local Chip Self-Sufficiency**: Forecasts suggest that China's local GPU self-sufficiency ratio will increase from 39% to 50% by 2027, driven by advancements in local semiconductor manufacturing [4] Stock Implications - **Positive Outlook for CSPs**: Companies like Tencent and Alibaba are expected to benefit significantly, especially as Tencent had previously reduced capital expenditure guidance due to GPU supply chain constraints [9] - **Data Center Providers**: Companies such as GDS and VNET are anticipated to receive substantial new orders in the domestic market following a period of muted demand [9] Additional Considerations - **Market Dynamics**: The report highlights the ongoing focus of Chinese LLMs, led by DeepSeek, on increasing intelligence density and optimizing computing power [4] - **Investment Risks**: Potential risks include intensified competition, regulatory scrutiny, and the impact of macroeconomic factors on consumer spending and enterprise digitalization [16][19] Conclusion - The approval of the H200 chip is a significant development for China's AI industry, with positive implications for major players like Tencent and Alibaba, as well as data center providers. The ongoing advancements in local chip manufacturing suggest a gradual shift towards greater self-sufficiency in the semiconductor space, although challenges remain in terms of competition and regulatory environments [1][3][9]

Core Viewpoint - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index experienced a decline of 1.37%, with most popular Chinese concept stocks also falling [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Baidu saw a drop of 4.7% [1] - Other companies such as Beike, Xpeng, WeRide, and Li Auto all fell by over 3% [1] - Century Internet increased by 2% [1] - JinkoSolar rose by 2.5% [1] - Daqo New Energy experienced a rise of 3% [1]

Summary of Conference Call Notes on China Data Centres Equities Industry Overview - The focus is on the China data centre industry, specifically companies GDS Holdings (GDS) and VNET Group (VNET) - The industry is expected to experience a slowdown in 2026, with potential recovery in 2027 driven by AI demand and clarity on chip supply issues [2][10] Key Points and Arguments 1. **2026 Slowdown and 2027 Recovery**: - A slowdown in new wholesale orders was noted in 3Q25, attributed to large clients delaying capital expenditures due to uncertainties regarding chip resolutions [2] - GDS's adjusted EBITDA growth is forecasted to slow from 10% in 2025 to 6% in 2026, while VNET's growth is expected to decelerate from 21% to 19% in the same period [2] 2. **Market Resilience**: - Despite disappointing order numbers in 3Q, GDS and VNET's share prices remained resilient, with GDS up 15% and VNET up 8% post-results announcement, indicating that the market has already priced in the anticipated slowdown [3] 3. **REITs as Valuation Benchmarks**: - Both GDS and VNET completed their C-REIT and Private REIT issuances, which are seen as providing valuation benchmarks and future financing channels [4] 4. **Preference for VNET**: - VNET is expected to outperform GDS in growth due to better wholesale capacity utilization and lower electricity costs in Inner Mongolia, which is advantageous for securing large AI orders [5] - VNET is trading at a lower valuation of 10x 2026e EV/adj. EBITDA compared to GDS at 13x [5] 5. **Target Price Adjustments**: - Target prices for both companies have been raised, with GDS's target price increasing from USD 44.10 to USD 46.90 and VNET's from USD 11.40 to USD 14.40 [6] Financial Highlights - **GDS Financials**: - Revenue projections for GDS are CNY 10,322 million for 2024, increasing to CNY 14,053 million by 2027 [11] - Adjusted EBITDA is expected to decline from CNY 6,889 million in 2025 to CNY 5,275 million in 2026 [11] - **VNET Financials**: - VNET's revenue is projected to grow from CNY 8,259 million in 2024 to CNY 14,424 million by 2027 [19] - EBITDA is expected to increase from CNY 2,268 million in 2024 to CNY 4,913 million in 2027 [19] Additional Important Insights - **Risks**: - Potential risks include failure to secure new large orders, chip shortages affecting data centre utilization, and a slowdown in AI data centre investments [34] - **Valuation Methodology**: - GDS is valued using a sum of the parts (SOTP) approach, with a target EV/EBITDA multiple of 13x for its mainland China business and 21x for its international business, DayOne [27][31] - **Market Context**: - The report highlights the competitive landscape, comparing GDS and VNET with peers like Equinix and Digital Realty, indicating a need for strategic positioning in the evolving market [35] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the China data centre industry, focusing on GDS and VNET, their financial outlook, market dynamics, and potential risks.

Summary of China & ASEAN Data Centers Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the China and ASEAN data center sector, highlighting positive trends in order volume, capital expenditure (capex) expansion, and capital recycling strategies for companies like GDS and VNET [1][6][37]. Key Companies - **GDS Holdings (GDS)**: Target price set at US$43/HK$42 for ADR/H-share, reflecting a slight decrease from previous targets. Valuation of DayOne, a subsidiary, increased by 17% to US$10.5/HK$10.2 per GDS ADR/H-share [1][49]. - **VNET**: Maintained a target price of US$14, with a Buy rating [1][49]. Core Insights - **Order Volume and Demand**: Both GDS and VNET are expected to secure around 300MW of orders each in 2026, representing a significant increase in market share from 9% in 2025 to approximately 20% of incremental data center demand in China [6][10]. - **Capex Growth**: GDS's organic capex is projected to reach Rmb7 billion in 2026, up from Rmb4.8 billion in 2025, to support capacity expansion. VNET's capex is expected to exceed Rmb8 billion for 350-400MW capacity delivery [6][7]. - **Favorable Financing Environment**: The report notes a positive outlook for financing, with GDS and VNET expected to generate substantial operating cash flow (Rmb4 billion+ for GDS and Rmb3 billion+ for VNET in 2026) [7][10]. Financial Performance - **DayOne's Performance**: DayOne reported a significant year-over-year growth in revenue (+177%) and adjusted EBITDA (+358%), indicating strong operational execution and capacity expansion [53][59]. - **Capacity Expansion**: DayOne aims to reach approximately 1GW of committed capacity by the end of 2025, with ongoing projects in Thailand and other regions [53][54]. Market Trends - **Data Center Demand Growth**: The China data center market is projected to grow at a CAGR of 23% from 2024 to 2028, reaching 33GW by 2028 [10][12]. - **Utilization Rates**: GDS and VNET are expected to account for over 11% of data center demand in China by 2028, driven by above-industry utilization rates [17][12]. Regulatory Environment - New electricity tariffs in Malaysia may increase operational costs for data center operators, while stricter water consumption rules could benefit companies like DayOne that focus on higher-tier data centers [54][54]. Valuation Adjustments - GDS's valuation was adjusted to Rmb66 billion or US$37.4/HK$36.4 per ADR/H-share due to increased share count from recent offerings. DayOne's valuation was raised based on improved growth estimates [48][49]. Conclusion - The outlook for the China and ASEAN data center sector remains positive, with strong demand, increased capex, and favorable financing conditions. GDS and VNET are well-positioned to capitalize on these trends, supported by robust operational performance and strategic expansions.

Market Performance - US stock indices showed a mixed performance with the S&P 500 index only 71 points away from its October high despite weak labor market data [1] - Major technology stocks had varied results, with Tesla rising over 4% and Microsoft falling over 2% [2] Sector Movements - Lithium stocks led the market rally, with companies like Albemarle and Livent showing significant gains, while major tech stocks struggled [3] - Chinese concept stocks mostly declined, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index dropping 1.38% [3] Commodity Trends - Base metals experienced a broad increase, with LME tin rising nearly 4.4% and LME copper up 2.7%, reaching historical highs [4][6] - A report from JPMorgan suggests that supply disruptions and global inventory mismatches could push copper prices to $12,500 per ton by mid-2026 [5] Cryptocurrency Market - The cryptocurrency market saw a collective rise, with Bitcoin surpassing $93,000, marking a 1.8% increase [6][7] - Significant liquidation occurred in the market, with over $360 million in total liquidations reported in the last 24 hours [8] Economic Indicators - The US private sector unexpectedly lost approximately 32,000 jobs in November, raising expectations for further interest rate adjustments by the Federal Reserve [8] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December surged to 89% according to CME FedWatch [8]

Core Insights - AI infrastructure is a crucial foundation for the development of artificial intelligence technology, with 58% of enterprises in China currently utilizing AI, significantly higher than the global average, positioning China as a leader in the field [1][8] - The demand for AI infrastructure computing power in China is surging due to complex scenarios, massive data, and ultra-large models, with investments expected to reach 169.6 billion yuan in 2024, an increase of 105.4 billion yuan from 2023, and projected to grow to 275 billion yuan by 2025 [1][8] AI Infrastructure Industry Definition and Classification - AI computing infrastructure is essential for the rapid development of AI, requiring telecom operators to deploy appropriate technical architectures to provide high-performance AI computing capabilities [2] - The infrastructure consists of hardware (including AI chips like GPU, FPGA, and ASIC) and software components (including foundational software platforms and AI-enabled service platforms) [2] AI Infrastructure Industry Development Status - The AI industry is a key area of global development, accelerating technological and economic progress, with increasing application scenarios, explosive data growth, and exponential increases in algorithm model parameters, necessitating higher performance from supporting infrastructure [4] AI Infrastructure Investment Trends - Global AI infrastructure investment is rapidly increasing, projected to reach 598.5 billion yuan in 2024, up 169.9 billion yuan from 2023, and expected to grow to 1.374 trillion yuan by 2025 [5][6] AI Infrastructure Industry Value Chain - The industry value chain includes upstream components (computing hardware, network hardware, storage hardware), midstream system integration and solution service providers, and downstream AI application companies across various sectors such as finance, healthcare, and smart cities [8][9] AI Infrastructure Industry Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape is dominated by telecom operators, third-party IDC service providers, and major cloud service giants, including China Telecom, China Mobile, China Unicom, and cloud services from Alibaba, Tencent, Baidu, and Huawei [10] - In Q1 2025, Alibaba Cloud led the market with a 33% share, followed by Huawei Cloud at 18% and Tencent Cloud at 10%, indicating a strong focus on AI deployment among these companies [10][11] Future Development of AI Infrastructure - To meet the potential computing power demands from the rapid development of large models, operators should actively build new AI computing infrastructure, focusing on comprehensive layouts across computing, platforms, models, and applications [12]

Investment Focus - Alphabet (GOOGL US) is expected to maintain good visibility in its advertising business due to the gradual release of its valuation under pressure from AI search, with a projected 30%+ growth in cloud business for the year and margin improvement driven by scale effects [1] - Alibaba (BABA US) is anticipated to see a cloud business growth rate of 28%-30%, benefiting from strong momentum in instant retail, with Taobao expected to achieve a 20-30% MAU growth driven by flash purchase [1] - NVIDIA (NVDA US) is projected to achieve strong revenue growth in FY2027, with GB300 series products expected to account for two-thirds of Blackwell series products, and a revenue target of $500 billion over the next five quarters [1] - Tencent (700 HK) is recommended as a top pick, with a target price of 700, driven by steady growth in core gaming and advertising businesses, and a projected near 20% growth rate in advertising [3] - New Oxygen (SY US) is focusing on the light medical beauty sector with a rapid expansion plan, aiming to open 50 self-operated stores by 2025, supported by a strong marketing capability and low customer acquisition costs [3] - Ctrip (TCOM US) is expected to benefit from steady growth in domestic leisure travel and the recovery of outbound travel, with a projected revenue growth of 14% to 71.1 billion yuan in 2026 [3] - Huazhu (HTHT US) is transitioning to a high-margin franchise model, with a target price of $52, supported by a strong recovery in industry RevPar [4] - Futu (FUTU US) is positioned for long-term growth in the virtual asset business, with a user base of 3.1 million and a current valuation offering a safety margin [4] - AIA (1299 HK) is expected to see steady growth in new business value and operational indicators, with a forward PEV of 1.46x [4] - Dongfang Electric (1072 HK) is actively involved in global power station project contracting, with significant opportunities in the U.S. market due to the demand for power supply capabilities [9]

Core Viewpoint - VNET Group Inc. is highlighted as a promising investment opportunity in the Chinese tech sector, with a maintained Buy rating and a price target of $12.50 per share set by DBS analyst Andy Yu [1][2]. Financial Performance - VNET reported total net revenues of RMB 2.58 billion for Q3 2025, representing a 21.7% increase year-over-year and exceeding analyst expectations by approximately 8% [2]. - The company experienced a net loss attributable to ordinary shareholders of RMB 307.0 million, equating to RMB 0.19 per basic and diluted share, which, while wider than the previous year's loss, aligns with expectations for adjusted figures around $0.02 per share [3]. - VNET raised its full-year 2025 revenue forecast to a range of RMB 9.55 billion to RMB 9.87 billion, driven by strong wholesale momentum and AI-related deals [3]. Company Overview - VNET Group Inc. is a leading carrier-neutral data center and cloud services provider in China, operating over 50 data centers across more than 30 cities, offering services such as colocation, managed hosting, and cloud computing infrastructure [4].

Core Insights - Century Internet (VNET.US), the first Chinese IDC company listed on the US stock market, reported a 21.7% year-on-year revenue growth for Q3 2025, reaching 2.58 billion RMB [2] - The company’s adjusted EBITDA increased by 27.5% year-on-year to 758 million RMB, with an adjusted EBITDA margin rising from 28% to 29.4% [2] - The company’s founder and chairman, Chen Sheng, highlighted strong demand for base IDC services, with three new orders totaling 63 MW in capacity [2][4] Financial Performance - Q3 total revenue reached 2.58 billion RMB, a 21.7% increase year-on-year [2] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 was 758 million RMB, reflecting a 27.5% year-on-year growth [2] - Adjusted cash gross profit grew by 22.1% year-on-year to 1.05 billion RMB, with an adjusted cash gross margin of 40.7% [2] Business Growth and Orders - The company secured three base IDC orders in Q3, totaling 63 MW, including a 20 MW order from a joint venture and a 40 MW order from an internet company [4] - In Q4, the company won an additional 32 MW base order from another internet client, indicating continued strong demand [3][4] - The operational capacity for base IDC reached 783 MW as of September 30, 2025, with a quarterly increase of 109 MW [4] Market Outlook - Century Internet raised its full-year revenue guidance to between 9.55 billion and 9.867 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of 16% to 19% [3] - The adjusted EBITDA guidance for the year is set between 2.91 billion and 2.9445 billion RMB, indicating a growth of 24% to 26% [3] - The company aims to leverage its unique advantages in the AI-driven market and continue its dual-engine strategy to enhance growth potential [3] Industry Developments - The rapid development and application of artificial intelligence are creating new growth opportunities for the Chinese IDC industry [4] - Century Internet signed a strategic cooperation agreement with the Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region government to establish an AI innovation cooperation center [5] - The company successfully issued the first green real estate ABS in the national data center industry, amounting to 860 million RMB, marking a breakthrough in green finance [5]