Core Viewpoint - Xiaomi Group-W (1810.HK) shares increased by over 4%, reaching HKD 45.06, following the announcement of its automotive delivery plans for October 2025 [1] Delivery Plans - Xiaomi Automotive announced a continuous delivery volume exceeding 40,000 units by October 2025 [1] - The delivery cycle for various models has been significantly shortened compared to the original timeline: - YU7: Expected delivery in 35-38 weeks, shortened by 10 weeks - YU7 Pro: Expected delivery in 34-37 weeks, shortened by 8 weeks - YU7 Max: Expected delivery in 32-35 weeks, shortened by 4 weeks [1] - The reduction in delivery cycles is attributed to increased production capacity [1]

Core Viewpoint - Jianyin International has slightly lowered the target price for Xiaomi Group-W (01810) by 2.9% from HKD 69 to HKD 67 while maintaining an "Outperform" rating due to adjustments in profit forecasts for IoT and smartphone margins [1] Financial Performance - The forecast for Xiaomi's Q3 2025 revenue is expected to be slightly below institutional expectations, with a year-on-year increase of 22% to RMB 112.7 billion, but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 3% [1] - Adjusted net profit for Q3 is projected to be RMB 9.7 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 55% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 10% [1] - The smartphone gross margin is anticipated to be under pressure, estimated at around 11%, due to rising component prices, particularly for LPDDR4X smartphones [1] IoT and Network Services - Growth in the IoT segment is expected to significantly slow down, primarily due to a high base from the previous year influenced by government subsidies, with a reduction in subsidies this quarter [1] - Despite the impact of price wars being limited, the IoT segment is projected to grow by 25% and 22% in the fiscal years 2025 and 2026, respectively [1] - For network services, growth is anticipated at 9% and 6% for the fiscal years 2025 and 2026, respectively [1] Electric Vehicle (EV) Performance - Xiaomi's EV deliveries for Q3 are expected to reach 108,800 units, representing a quarter-on-quarter increase of 34% [1] - The average selling price of EVs continues to rise, benefiting from the contribution of the YU7 model, with projected EV revenue of RMB 28.7 billion [1]

Core Viewpoint - Jianyin International has slightly lowered the target price for Xiaomi Group-W (01810) by 2.9% from HKD 69 to HKD 67 while maintaining an "Outperform" rating due to adjustments in profit margins for IoT and smartphones [1] Financial Performance - The forecast for Xiaomi's Q3 2025 revenue is expected to be slightly below market expectations, with a year-on-year increase of 22% to RMB 112.7 billion, but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 3% [1] - Adjusted net profit for Q3 is projected to be RMB 9.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of 55% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 10% [1] - The smartphone gross margin is anticipated to be under pressure, expected to be around 11% due to rising component prices, particularly for LPDDR4X smartphones [1] IoT and Electric Vehicle (EV) Growth - Growth in the IoT segment is expected to slow significantly, primarily due to a high base from the previous year influenced by government subsidies, with a reduction in subsidies this quarter [1] - Despite the impact of price wars being limited, the IoT segment is projected to grow by 25% and 22% in the fiscal years 2025 and 2026, respectively [1] - For the EV sector, Q3 deliveries are expected to reach 108,800 units, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 34%, with revenue from EVs projected at RMB 28.7 billion [1]

Xiaomi Corp. (1810.HK) Conference Call Summary Company Overview - **Company**: Xiaomi Corp. (1810.HK) - **Market Cap**: HK$1.1 trillion / $144.0 billion - **Enterprise Value**: HK$921.6 billion / $118.6 billion - **Current Price**: HK$43.20 - **Target Price**: HK$56.50 (implying 30.8% upside) [1][5] Key Industry Insights - **Smartphone Market**: Expected to face near-term speed bumps but favorable risk-reward on a 12-month basis [1] - **AIoT (Artificial Intelligence of Things)**: Projected revenue growth of 6% in 3Q25 and 9% in 2026, with sequential growth accelerating [10][51] - **EV (Electric Vehicle)**: Anticipated first-time IFRS net profit of Rmb0.7 billion in 3Q25, driven by higher operating leverage [16] Financial Projections - **Revenue Forecasts**: - 2024: Rmb365.9 billion - 2025E: Rmb465.3 billion - 2026E: Rmb595.1 billion - 2027E: Rmb710.8 billion [5][13] - **EBITDA**: - 2024: Rmb30.8 billion - 2025E: Rmb55.3 billion - 2026E: Rmb62.6 billion - 2027E: Rmb79.4 billion [5][13] - **EPS (Earnings Per Share)**: - 2024: Rmb1.07 - 2025E: Rmb1.57 - 2026E: Rmb1.91 - 2027E: Rmb2.38 [5][13] Margin and Profitability - **Gross Profit Margin (GPM)**: Expected to decline to ~10% in 2026E due to rising memory costs, compared to ~11% in 2H25E [10][19] - **Net Profit Resilience**: Core net profit expected to remain flat year-over-year in 2026E, supported by increased contributions from AIoT and internet services [10][19] Competitive Landscape - **Market Position**: Xiaomi's comparative advantages expected to strengthen against peers due to larger scale and ecosystem [10][19] - **Smartphone Contribution**: Smartphone gross profit contribution is projected to decrease to 24% of total gross profit by 2026E [47] Challenges and Risks - **Memory Cost Pressure**: Anticipated challenges in mass model shipments due to rising memory costs, with a significant impact on pricing strategies [30][32] - **Inventory Management**: Longer inventory days observed, which may affect gross profit margins [21][26] Upcoming Events to Monitor - **Singles' Day GMV**: Key indicator of consumer demand and sales performance [17] - **3Q25 Results**: Scheduled for late November, expected to provide insights into revenue and profit growth [17] - **EV Manufacturing Capacity**: Progress on ramping up manufacturing capacity and new model launches [17][18] Summary of Key Metrics - **P/E Ratio**: 16.6 for 2024, increasing to 25.3 in 2025E [11] - **CROCI (Cash Return on Capital Invested)**: Expected to be 21.7% in 2024, declining to 29.8% by 2027E [11] - **Free Cash Flow Yield**: 7.2% in 2024, decreasing to 2.4% in 2026E [11] Conclusion - **Investment Outlook**: Despite short-term challenges, the long-term risk-reward profile for Xiaomi remains favorable, with a target price indicating significant upside potential [1][5]

Group 1 - Xiaomi Group-W (01810.HK) has seen a stock price increase of over 3%, currently up by 3.1% at HKD 44.54 [1] - The trading volume for Xiaomi Group-W reached HKD 4.838 billion [1]

Core Viewpoint - Xiaomi Group's stock price increased by over 3%, reaching HKD 44.54, with a trading volume of HKD 4.838 billion, driven by positive news regarding its automotive division [1] Group 1: Automotive Delivery and Performance - Xiaomi's official Weibo announced that by October 2025, the company expects to maintain a delivery volume exceeding 40,000 vehicles [1] - According to Guojin Securities, Xiaomi's automotive deliveries for the first ten months of this year have surpassed 290,000 units, more than double the total deliveries for the previous year [1] - Xiaomi's official Weibo also reported that as of October 31, 2025, the total payment amount across all channels has exceeded HKD 18.2 billion [1] Group 2: Investor Sentiment and Market Position - Recent research from Dongfang Securities indicates that some investors have concerns regarding Xiaomi's technological innovation and execution capabilities, particularly regarding the sustainability of growth across its automotive and smart home businesses [1] - Dongfang Securities believes that Xiaomi has significantly improved its competitiveness in new feature development and product manufacturing, establishing a stronger operational ecosystem [1] - The company's ability to innovate and scale its products is expected to continue enhancing, driving sustained growth across its automotive and smart home sectors [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Xiaomi's automotive delivery volume is expected to exceed 40,000 units by September 2025, showcasing its enhanced product innovation and operational capabilities [1] - Xiaomi's monthly delivery volume of automobiles surpassed 30,000 units for the first time in July 2025 and further exceeded 40,000 units in September 2025, indicating strong production capacity expansion [1] - The company has introduced a tax subsidy scheme to encourage consumers to place orders by the end of November 2025, which is expected to support the achievement of annual delivery targets and future growth in the automotive business [1] Group 2 - In the smartphone sector, Xiaomi maintained a global market share of 14% in Q3 2025, ranking third globally [2] - The launch of the new Xiaomi 17 series, featuring innovative functions, has driven a 30% increase in sales compared to the previous generation, with Pro versions accounting for over 80% of sales [2] - The company forecasts earnings per share of 1.63, 2.06, and 2.60 yuan for 2025-2027, with a target price of 71.65 HKD based on a 32x PE valuation for comparable companies in 2026 [2]

Core Viewpoint - Xiaomi Group's stock price experienced a decline of 3.2% in early trading on October 30, reaching a six-month low [1] Company Summary - Xiaomi Group's stock performance indicates a significant downturn, reflecting potential investor concerns or market conditions affecting the company [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi Group with a target price of 71.65 HKD, based on a 32x PE valuation for 2026 [3][6]. Core Insights - The report highlights strong performance in automotive deliveries and sales of the Xiaomi 17 series, with a notable increase in monthly deliveries exceeding 40,000 units in September 2025 [2][9]. - The company is expected to see significant growth in earnings per share, projected at 1.63, 2.06, and 2.60 CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3][10]. - Revenue forecasts show a recovery with expected growth rates of 35% in 2024 and 31% in 2025, followed by 24% growth in 2026 and 2027 [5][10]. Financial Summary - Revenue (in million CNY) is projected to grow from 270,970 in 2023 to 735,676 in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 24% [5]. - Operating profit is expected to increase significantly from 20,009 million CNY in 2023 to 74,753 million CNY in 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 610% in 2024 [5]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to rise from 17,475 million CNY in 2023 to 67,848 million CNY in 2027, with a growth rate of 606% in 2024 [5]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 21.7% in 2023 to 24.0% in 2027, while the net margin is projected to increase from 6.4% to 9.2% over the same period [5].

Core Insights - The Hubei Provincial Party Secretary Wang Zhonglin visited the Wuhan East Lake New Technology Development Zone to investigate the development of the smart terminal industry [1] - Wang expressed hope for Xiaomi to accelerate the second phase of its smart home appliance factory project in Wuhan, aiming to promote the production of advanced smart terminal technology products in Hubei [1] - The initiative aims to establish a strong industrial cluster effect by attracting more supply chain enterprises, thereby injecting robust momentum into the growth of Hubei's smart terminal industry [1] Company Insights - Xiaomi Group's Chairman Lei Jun engaged in discussions with Wang Zhonglin during the visit, highlighting the company's role in the local smart manufacturing sector [1] - The focus on smart home appliances indicates Xiaomi's commitment to expanding its manufacturing capabilities in Hubei, which could enhance its competitive edge in the smart terminal market [1] Industry Insights - The visit underscores the Hubei government's strategy to leverage leading enterprises like Xiaomi to foster industrial development and innovation in the smart terminal sector [1] - The emphasis on creating a demonstration benchmark in smart manufacturing reflects a broader trend of regional governments supporting high-tech industries to drive economic growth [1]