Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs indicates that market sentiment is turning cautious ahead of Xiaomi Group-W's (01810) earnings report, with hedge funds increasing their short positions significantly [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment and Hedge Fund Activity - Hedge fund short positions in Xiaomi have increased by 53% over the past week, according to Goldman Sachs' sales department [1] - Institutional trading led by pension funds and hedge funds has shown a net selling trend over the past two weeks [1] - Hedge funds view Xiaomi as a consensus short/sell target in the short term due to a lack of catalysts [1] Group 2: Factors Affecting Market Sentiment - Concerns over safety, production delays, and weak demand for electric vehicles despite recent promotional activities are contributing to negative market sentiment [1] - Market sentiment has deteriorated sharply compared to earlier this year when optimism about Xiaomi's entry into the electric vehicle sector had driven its stock price up [1] Group 3: Stock Performance and Analyst Predictions - Xiaomi's stock price has fallen over 25% since peaking in early July [1] - Goldman Sachs analysts have lowered Xiaomi's target price by more than 10% due to profit margin pressures from rising memory chip prices [1] - The company is expected to report a 23% year-over-year revenue growth in its third-quarter earnings on November 18 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs indicates that as Xiaomi Group-W (01810) approaches its earnings report, market sentiment is becoming cautious, leading hedge funds to increase their short positions against the company [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment and Hedge Fund Activity - In the past week, short positions on Xiaomi have increased by 53% in Goldman Sachs' main trading book [1] - Institutional trading led by pension funds and hedge funds has shown a net selling trend over the past two weeks [1] - Hedge funds view Xiaomi as a consensus short/sell target in the short term due to a lack of catalysts [1] Group 2: Factors Affecting Market Sentiment - Concerns over safety, production delays, and weak demand for electric vehicles despite recent promotional activities are negatively impacting market sentiment [1] - Market sentiment has deteriorated sharply compared to earlier this year when optimism about Xiaomi's entry into the electric vehicle sector had driven its stock price up [1] Group 3: Stock Performance and Analyst Predictions - Since peaking in early July, Xiaomi's stock price has fallen by over 25% [1] - Goldman Sachs analysts have recently lowered Xiaomi's target price by more than 10% due to profit margin pressure from rising memory chip prices [1] - The company is expected to announce a 23% year-over-year revenue growth in its third-quarter earnings report on November 18 [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi Group [3][5]. Core Views - Xiaomi is accelerating its high-end smartphone offerings, with the recent launch of the Xiaomi 17 series achieving record sales within minutes of release. The company aims to mitigate storage cost pressures through product structure optimization [1]. - The automotive segment is showing promising growth, with 400,000 units delivered within a year and monthly deliveries exceeding 40,000 units in September and October 2025. The company is expected to achieve breakeven in quarterly automotive operations [2]. - Despite a slowdown in national subsidies for IoT products, Xiaomi's competitive edge in the IoT sector remains strong due to product quality and supply chain management [2]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from 270.97 billion CNY in 2023 to 748.7 billion CNY by 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of -3%, 35%, 29%, 31%, and 22% respectively [4][10]. - Non-GAAP net profit is expected to increase from 19.27 billion CNY in 2023 to 79.53 billion CNY in 2027, with significant growth rates of 126%, 41%, 55%, 46%, and 29% [4][10]. - The company anticipates maintaining a gross margin of approximately 11% for Q3 and Q4 2025, despite rising storage costs [1]. Market Position - Xiaomi holds a 14% market share in the global smartphone market, ranking among the top three manufacturers. In China, it has a 15% market share, placing it fourth [1]. - The company has successfully entered the high-end smartphone market, with the Xiaomi 17 Pro Max leading sales in the new series [1]. Automotive Business - Xiaomi has delivered 400,000 vehicles since the launch of its automotive products, with a strategy to provide tax subsidies to enhance consumer benefits [2]. - The automotive division is expected to reach a quarterly breakeven point as delivery volumes increase [2]. IoT and Consumer Products - The IoT business is projected to maintain robust competitiveness despite reduced national subsidies, supported by Xiaomi's product quality and supply chain capabilities [2].

Core Viewpoint - Citi expects Xiaomi Group-W (01810) to achieve a year-on-year revenue growth of 22% and adjusted net profit growth of 60% in Q3, reaching RMB 112.9 billion and RMB 10 billion respectively, driven by robust electric vehicle sales [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Xiaomi's total revenue for Q3 is projected to be RMB 112.9 billion, with an adjusted net profit of RMB 10 billion, reflecting significant growth compared to the previous year [1] - For Q4, Xiaomi is anticipated to see a 15% year-on-year increase in total revenue and a 16% increase in adjusted net profit, primarily due to a recovery in smartphone sales and continued growth in electric vehicle deliveries [1] Group 2: Business Segments - The smartphone segment may experience a 3% year-on-year decline in revenue due to decreased shipments in China and India [1] - The AIoT business is expected to slow down to a 5% year-on-year growth rate, impacted by reduced subsidies for trade-in programs [1] - Electric vehicle deliveries are projected to rise to 109,000 units, with an average price of approximately RMB 260,000, and the segment may have reached breakeven [1] Group 3: Market Outlook - The approval of Xiaomi's second electric vehicle factory is seen as a catalyst for stock price revaluation, with a target price set at HKD 69 [1] - Despite challenges in the AIoT segment due to a higher base effect, the overall outlook remains positive with expectations of recovery in smartphone sales and sustained electric vehicle growth [1]

Core Viewpoint - Citi expects Xiaomi Group-W (01810) to achieve a year-on-year revenue growth of 22% and a 60% increase in adjusted net profit in Q3, reaching RMB 112.9 billion and RMB 10 billion respectively, driven by robust electric vehicle sales [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Q3 total revenue is projected to be RMB 112.9 billion, with adjusted net profit at RMB 10 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 22% and 60% respectively [1] - For Q4, total revenue and adjusted net profit are expected to grow by 15% and 16% year-on-year, attributed to a recovery in smartphone sales and continued growth in electric vehicle deliveries [1] Group 2: Electric Vehicle Segment - The approval of Xiaomi's second electric vehicle factory is anticipated to act as a catalyst for stock price revaluation [1] - Electric vehicle deliveries are expected to rise to 109,000 units, with an average price of approximately RMB 260,000, and the segment may have already achieved breakeven [1] Group 3: Smartphone and AIoT Business - Xiaomi's smartphone revenue may decline by 3% year-on-year due to decreased shipments in China and India [1] - The AIoT business is projected to slow down to a year-on-year growth of 5% due to reduced subsidies for trade-ins [1]

Core Viewpoint - Xiaomi's founder Lei Jun emphasizes the importance of continuous vehicle testing for Xiaomi Auto, stating that it is essential for ensuring product quality throughout the entire product lifecycle [1]. Group 1 - Xiaomi Auto's testing process spans the entire product lifecycle, with pre-production testing aimed at validating design and post-production testing focused on enhancing user experience [1]. - The company believes that thorough and scientific testing is a prerequisite for guaranteeing product quality [1].

Market Overview - US stock futures increased on Monday morning, indicating a continuation of the strong momentum from October, with S&P 500 futures rising 0.3%, Nasdaq 100 futures jumping 0.6%, and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures adding about 0.1% [1] - October was a strong month for stocks, with the S&P 500 rising 2.3%, the Dow gaining 2.5%, and the Nasdaq Composite climbing 4.7%, driven by investor interest in growth and AI-linked companies, particularly Big Tech and the "Magnificent Seven" [2][19] - Optimism regarding easing US-China trade tensions contributed to market gains, although concerns remain in Washington due to a government shutdown delaying key economic reports [2][19] Earnings Reports - Earnings season is active, with about 300 S&P 500 companies having reported third-quarter results, and over 100 more reports expected this week from firms such as Palantir, Super Micro, and AMD [4][20] - Berkshire Hathaway's stock rose over 1% after reporting a 17% profit increase in its third-quarter results, attributed to a mild hurricane season and investment gains [6][10][20] Significant Corporate Developments - IREN stock surged 24% following the announcement of a $9.7 billion cloud services contract with Microsoft, which will utilize Nvidia's GB300 processors to enhance AI and data center infrastructure [8][20] - The GB300 processors will be installed in stages until 2026 at IREN's 750-megawatt campus in Texas, with Microsoft making a 20% prepayment [9][20] Leadership Changes - Warren Buffett will step down as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway in January, with Vice Chair Greg Abel set to take over, while Buffett remains as chairman [11][20] - Berkshire Hathaway's significant cash pile of $381.7 billion as of September is expected to remain intact despite recent investments [11][20] Market Reactions - Xiaomi shares rose over 3% following a lighthearted exchange between Chinese President Xi Jinping and South Korean President Lee Jae Myung, highlighting sensitive security issues in US-China relations [13][20] - Gold prices fell below $4000 per ounce after China removed a tax incentive for gold purchases, although prices are still up more than 50% this year due to demand from central banks and investors [15][16][20]

Group 1 - Southbound funds recorded a net purchase of 54.72 billion HKD today [1] - Xiaomi Group, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, and China Mobile received net purchases of 10.29 billion HKD, 9.93 billion HKD, and 4.61 billion HKD respectively [1] - SMIC (Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation) had the highest net sell-off, amounting to 13.81 billion HKD [1]

Core Viewpoint - Xiaomi Group's stock price increased by 3.1%, reaching HKD 44.54, with a trading volume of HKD 48.38 billion, driven by positive news regarding its automotive division [1] Group 1: Automotive Performance - Xiaomi's official Weibo announced that by October 2025, the company expects to deliver over 40,000 vehicles consistently [1] - According to Guojin Securities, Xiaomi's automotive deliveries exceeded 290,000 units in the first ten months of this year, more than doubling last year's total [1] - Xiaomi's official Weibo also reported that the total payment amount across all channels surpassed HKD 18.2 billion by October 31, 2025 [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Innovation - Dongfang Securities noted that some investors express concerns about Xiaomi's technological innovation and execution capabilities, particularly regarding the sustainability of growth across its automotive and smart home businesses [1] - The firm believes that Xiaomi has significantly improved its competitiveness in new feature development and product manufacturing, establishing a stronger operational ecosystem [1] - Xiaomi's ability to innovate and scale its products is expected to continue enhancing, driving sustained growth across its automotive and smart home sectors [1]

Group 1 - Xiaomi Group's stock price increased by over 4%, reaching HKD 45.06, with a trading volume exceeding HKD 6.1 billion [2] - The stock opened at HKD 43.80 and closed at HKD 43.20 the previous day, with a trading volume of 139 million shares [3] - The company's total market capitalization is HKD 1.17 trillion, with a TTM price-to-earnings ratio of 28.65 [3] Group 2 - Xiaomi's automotive division announced that it expects to deliver over 40,000 vehicles by October 2025 [4] - The delivery cycle for Xiaomi vehicles has been shortened significantly, with the YU7 model's delivery time reduced by 10 weeks to 35-38 weeks [4] - According to Citigroup, Xiaomi's electric vehicle deliveries from January to September may have surpassed 308,000 units, achieving 88% of its 2025 target of 350,000 units [4]