Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that Zijin Mining (02899) demonstrates resilient growth in its third-quarter performance, reaffirming a positive stance due to favorable macro and micro conditions for gold and copper prices [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Zijin Mining's overseas business successfully spun off, creating new growth opportunities [1] - The gold segment's profit contribution has increased, solidifying its role as a growth engine [1] Group 2: Price Target and Earnings Forecast - Morgan Stanley raised its earnings forecast for Zijin Mining for 2025 to 2027 by 9% to 20% [1] - The target price for H-shares has been increased from HKD 28 to HKD 42, maintaining its position as a preferred stock in the industry with a "Buy" rating [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that Zijin Mining's third-quarter performance reflects a resilient growth trajectory, reaffirming a positive stance due to constructive outlooks for gold and copper prices under macro and micro tailwinds [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Zijin Mining's overseas business successfully spun off and listed, creating new growth scenarios [1] - The gold segment's profit contribution has increased, solidifying its position as a profit growth engine [1] Group 2: Price Target and Ratings - Based on the upward momentum in metal prices and strong production fundamentals, the bank raised its earnings forecast for Zijin Mining for 2025 to 2027 by 9% to 20% [1] - The target price for H-shares has been increased from HKD 28 to HKD 42, maintaining its status as an industry preferred stock with a "buy" rating [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Insights - The company reported a record high performance for Q3 2025, with revenue of 254.2 billion yuan (up 10.3% year-on-year) and a net profit of 37.86 billion yuan (up 55.4% year-on-year) [7] - The increase in revenue and profit is attributed to rising prices and production growth, particularly in gold and copper [7] - The report anticipates continued growth in net profit for 2025-2027, projecting 51.2 billion yuan, 63.2 billion yuan, and 72.1 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 15, 13, and 11 [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2025 is estimated at 352.375 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 16.1% [6] - The company expects a gross profit margin of 24.7% for 2025, increasing to 31.8% by 2027 [6] - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 28.6% in 2025, decreasing slightly to 25.8% by 2027 [6] Production and Cost Analysis - For Q1-Q3 2025, copper production reached 830,000 tons (up 5% year-on-year) and gold production was 65 tons (up 20% year-on-year) [7] - The average cost of gold production in Q3 2025 was 280 yuan per gram, while copper was 25,400 yuan per ton [7] - The report highlights ongoing construction projects aimed at increasing copper and gold production capacity [7] Market Comparison - The company's stock closed at 29.75 yuan on October 20, 2025, with a market capitalization of 612.491 billion yuan [2] - The stock has shown a significant performance compared to the market, with a one-year high of 32.65 yuan and a low of 15.00 yuan [2]

Core Viewpoint - The rise in international gold prices has significantly catalyzed the profitability and market value of Zijin Mining [1] Financial Performance - Zijin Mining's Q3 report shows a 55.5% increase in net profit attributable to shareholders, reaching 37.86 billion yuan, with Q3 net profit hitting a record 14.57 billion yuan [2] - The company's gold business has become the primary profit source, contributing 40.4% to the group's gross profit in the first three quarters of 2025, driven by a substantial increase in gold prices compared to copper [2][11] - Full-year profit expectations have been raised to approximately 51 billion yuan by several institutions, indicating a strong performance that could place Zijin Mining among the top 20 A-share listed companies [3][11] Market Dynamics - Despite the rising gold prices, there has been a divergence in stock performance, with Zijin Mining's stock price not following the upward trend of gold prices since the beginning of Q4 [4][18] - The average increase in gold prices was 47% in the first three quarters, while Zijin Mining's stock price rose by 99%, indicating a strong correlation between gold prices and company profitability [18] Production and Sales - The company has seen continuous growth in gold production, exceeding annual targets, with significant contributions from newly acquired and newly operational mines [10] - Sales prices for gold ingots and concentrates reached 746.43 yuan/gram and 685.21 yuan/gram respectively, with a gross margin of 72.8%, reflecting a nearly 5 percentage point increase year-on-year [9] Price Trends - The price of gold has surged from approximately 2,624 USD/ounce to around 3,858 USD/ounce, marking a 47% increase, while copper prices only rose by 17% during the same period [8] - The fluctuations in gold prices and the performance of copper will be critical variables affecting Zijin Mining's Q4 performance [13]

汇丰环球投资研究将紫金矿业H股目标价从41.80港元上调至43.00港元 。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs forecasts Zijin Mining (02899, 601899.SH) will maintain strong profit growth momentum from 2025 to 2026, achieving an approximate 50% annual compound growth rate, primarily benefiting from rising gold and copper prices as well as increased production [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Zijin Mining reported a net profit of 14.6 billion RMB for the third quarter, with earnings per share of 0.548 RMB, representing a year-on-year increase of 57% [1] - For the first three quarters, the recurring net profit reached 34.7 billion RMB, equivalent to 69% of Goldman Sachs' full-year estimate for 2025 and 73% of market expectations [1] - The recurring performance is generally in line with both Goldman Sachs' and market expectations [1] Group 2: Price Target Adjustments - Goldman Sachs maintains a "Buy" rating for Zijin Mining, raising the target price for H-shares from 30 HKD to 37.5 HKD and for A-shares from 31 RMB to 37.5 RMB [1] Group 3: Earnings Forecast Adjustments - Based on the global commodities team's revised forecasts for copper and gold prices, along with the impact of the spin-off of Zijin Gold International (02259) and the recent acquisition of RG Gold Mine, Zijin Mining's earnings forecasts for the fiscal years 2025 to 2027 have been increased by 1% to 26% [1]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs forecasts Zijin Mining (02899, 601899.SH) will maintain strong profit growth momentum from 2025 to 2026, achieving an approximate 50% annual compound growth rate, primarily benefiting from rising gold and copper prices as well as increased production [1] Financial Performance - Zijin Mining reported a net profit of 14.6 billion RMB for the third quarter, with earnings per share of 0.548 RMB, representing a year-on-year increase of 57% [1] - For the first three quarters, the recurring net profit reached 34.7 billion RMB, equivalent to 69% of Goldman Sachs' forecast for the full year 2025 and 73% of market expectations [1] - The recurring performance is generally in line with both Goldman Sachs' and market expectations [1] Price Target Adjustments - Goldman Sachs maintains a "Buy" rating for Zijin Mining's H-shares and A-shares, raising the target price for H-shares from 30 HKD to 37.5 HKD and for A-shares from 31 RMB to 37.5 RMB [1] Earnings Forecast Revisions - Based on the global commodities team's revised forecasts for copper and gold prices, along with the impact of the spin-off of Zijin Gold International (02259) and the recent completion of the RG mine acquisition, Zijin Mining's earnings forecasts for the fiscal years 2025 to 2027 have been increased by 1% to 26% [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative increase in stock price of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within the next six months [8][14]. Core Insights - The company reported a strong performance in Q3 2025, achieving a net profit attributable to shareholders of 146 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 57% [3][8]. - The company has successfully listed its subsidiary, Zijin Gold International, on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, raising approximately 28.7 billion HKD, marking it as the largest IPO in the global gold mining industry to date [6]. - The company has completed several significant acquisitions in 2025, enhancing its resource reserves in gold, copper, lithium, and molybdenum, which are expected to contribute positively to future profits [6][8]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a total revenue of 254.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.3%, and a net profit of 378.6 billion yuan, up 55.5% year-on-year [3][4]. - The company’s gross profit margin improved, with a mining enterprise gross margin of 60.62%, an increase of 2.91 percentage points year-on-year [4]. - The company’s unit sales costs for gold and copper increased slightly in Q3 2025, attributed to factors such as declining ore grades and increased transportation distances [5]. Production and Cost Analysis - The company’s gold production for Q1-Q3 2025 was 65 tons, a 20% increase year-on-year, while copper production reached 830,000 tons, a 5% increase [4]. - The unit sales cost for gold concentrate was 194.96 yuan/g, and for copper concentrate was 22,128 yuan/ton, reflecting a slight increase from the previous quarter [5]. Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 535 billion yuan, 684 billion yuan, and 749 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 67%, 28%, and 9% [8][10].

南财投研通数据显示，10月20日，券商给予上市公司目标价共19次，按最新收盘价计算，目标价涨幅排 名居前的公司有华友钴业、紫金矿业、海康威视，目标价涨幅分别为56.95%、46.86%、33.19%，分别 属于能源金属、工业金属、计算机设备行业。 评级调低方面，10月20日，群益证券(香港)对海光信息的评级从"买进"调低至"区间操作"。 | | | 1家最新被调低评级的公司 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券代码 证券名称 | 机构 | 此前评级 | 最新评级 | 行业 | | 688041 海光信息 | 群益证券(香港) | 买进 | 区间操作 | 半导体 | | | | 日期：10月20日，南财投研通×南财快讯制图 | | | 首次覆盖方面，10月20日券商共给出了5次首次覆盖，其中晨光生物获得山西证券给予"买入"评级，百 合花获得招商证券给予"增持"评级，威高血净获得东莞证券给予"增持"评级，天奈科技获得东北证券给 予"买入"评级，九号公司获得华源证券给予"增持"评级。 | | | | 10月20日目标价涨幅排名 | | | | --- | --- | ...

Core Viewpoint - The rise in international gold prices has significantly catalyzed the profitability and market value of Zijin Mining, with a reported net profit increase of 55.5% to 37.86 billion yuan in Q3, marking a historical high for the company [1][8]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Zijin Mining's Q3 net profit reached 14.57 billion yuan, setting a new record for quarterly earnings [1][8]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company's gold production accounted for 40.4% of total gross profit, making it the largest profit source [1][7]. - The company has adjusted its full-year profit forecast to approximately 51 billion yuan, reflecting a significant increase from previous estimates [10]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Despite the rising gold prices, there has been a divergence between gold stocks and gold prices since the beginning of Q4, with stocks like Zijin Mining experiencing a pullback [2][12]. - The average price of gold rose from 2,624 USD/oz to around 3,858 USD/oz, a 47% increase, while copper prices only increased by 17% during the same period [3]. Group 3: Production and Sales - Zijin Mining's gold ingot and concentrate sales prices reached 746.43 yuan/gram and 685.21 yuan/gram, respectively, with a gross margin of 72.8%, up nearly 5 percentage points year-on-year [4][5]. - The company reported a 20% year-on-year increase in gold production for the first nine months of 2025, totaling 65 tons [6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The continued rise in international gold prices is expected to sustain Zijin Mining's performance, with potential for further profit growth in Q4 [1]. - However, the company's stock price has not kept pace with gold price increases, raising concerns about future performance alignment [12].