Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4][23]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 38.42 billion yuan, an adjusted net profit of 9.01 billion yuan, and an adjusted net profit attributable to the parent of 9.00 billion yuan for 2023, representing year-on-year growth of 8.6%, 32.3%, and 29.4% respectively [5]. - The company achieved a package volume of 30.2 billion pieces in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 23.8%, and expanded its market share by 0.8 percentage points to 22.9% [6]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of $0.62 per share for 2023, a year-on-year increase of 67.6%, and has announced a dividend payout ratio of no less than 40% for 2024 [6][8]. Revenue Analysis - The core express business revenue increased from 34.16 billion yuan to 37.51 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 9.8%, with express service revenue accounting for 92.4% of total revenue [6]. - The average revenue per package decreased by 11.3% to 0.16 yuan, with 0.05 yuan attributed to incremental subsidies [6]. Cost Analysis - Total operating costs for 2023 were recorded at 26.76 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of only 1.6% [6]. - The company benefited from economies of scale, optimized transportation routes, and a decrease in fuel prices, leading to a 12.1% year-on-year decline in unit transportation costs [6]. Profitability - The gross profit for 2023 was 11.66 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.0%, with the gross margin improving by 4.8 percentage points to 30.4% [6]. - The operating profit margin increased by 4.1 percentage points to 26.0% for the year [6]. Future Projections - The company expects a package volume of 34.73 to 35.64 billion pieces in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 15% to 18% [8]. - Revenue projections for 2024 to 2026 are 44.25 billion yuan, 49.28 billion yuan, and 52.84 billion yuan, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 15.2%, 11.4%, and 7.2% [8].

研究报告Research Report 25 Mar 2024 中通快递（开曼） ZTO Express Cayman (ZTO US) 业绩符合预期，分红、回购超预期 Results in Line with Expectations; Dividends and Share Repurchase Program Exceed Expectations 观点聚焦 Investment Focus [Table_Info] (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 维持优于大市Maintain OUTPERFORM 公司发布 23Q4 及 23年全年业绩： 评级 优于大市OUTPERFORM 23Q4 公司实现营业收入 106.2 亿元/+7.6%，实现净利润 22.1 亿元 现价 US$21.02 目标价 US$31.40 /+3.8%，调整后净利润 22.1 亿元/+4.4%。23 年全年公司营业收入 384.2 亿元/+8.6%，实现净利润 87.5 亿元/+31.5%，调整后净利润 HTI ESG 5.0-5.0-5.0 90.06 亿元/+32.3%。 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for ZTO Express [9][32][36] Core Views - ZTO Express reported a 2023 revenue of 38.42 billion yuan, an increase of 8.6% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders of 8.75 billion yuan, up 28.5% year-on-year [5][11] - The company maintained its leading position in the e-commerce express delivery sector, with a service volume of 30.2 billion parcels in 2023, reflecting a growth of 23.8% and a market share of 22.9% [6][13] - The report anticipates a package volume growth of 15-18% for 2024, with a focus on optimizing digital operations and enhancing service quality [8][31] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Latest closing price: HKD 166.00 - Total shares: 8.23 billion, circulating shares: 6.17 billion - Total market capitalization: HKD 136.62 billion, circulating market capitalization: HKD 10.24 billion - 52-week high/low: HKD 236.4 / 124.1 - Debt-to-asset ratio: 31.86% - Price-to-earnings ratio: 13.58 [3][4] Financial Performance - In 2023, ZTO Express achieved a revenue of 38.42 billion yuan, with a net profit of 8.75 billion yuan, and an adjusted net profit of 9 billion yuan [5][11] - The fourth quarter revenue was 10.62 billion yuan, with a net profit of 2.19 billion yuan [11] - The company’s gross profit increased by 29.0% to 11.66 billion yuan, with a gross margin improvement of 4.8 percentage points to 30.4% [24][30] Market Position - ZTO Express's service volume reached 30.2 billion parcels in 2023, with a market share increase of 0.8 percentage points [6][13] - The average revenue per parcel decreased by 12.0% to 1.175 yuan due to intense price competition [16][19] - The company’s single parcel cost decreased by 13.2% to 0.723 yuan, with transportation costs down by 12.0% to 0.450 yuan [21][30] Future Outlook - For 2024, ZTO Express expects a package volume of 34.73 billion to 35.64 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 15-18% [8][31] - The board approved a semi-annual cash dividend plan, with a total dividend amount not less than 40% of the distributable profit for the fiscal year [31] - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 42.65 billion, 47.23 billion, and 51.43 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 9.77 billion, 11.08 billion, and 12.37 billion yuan [32][33]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Outperform" for the company, indicating an expected total return performance exceeding the benchmark index by more than 10% over the next 12 months [10]. Core Insights - The company reported a 7.6% year-on-year revenue growth in Q4 2023, reaching 10.6 billion yuan, and an adjusted (Non-GAAP) net profit increase of 4.4% to 2.2 billion yuan, contributing to an annual revenue growth of 8.6% to 38.4 billion yuan and a 32.3% rise in adjusted net profit to 9 billion yuan for the full year 2023 [5][6]. - The company aims to enhance operational efficiency while maintaining service quality, achieving a 32.0% year-on-year increase in package volume in Q4 2023 to 8.7 billion pieces, and a total annual package volume growth of 23.8% to 30.2 billion pieces, with market share rising from 22.1% in 2022 to 22.9% in 2023 [5][6]. - The company anticipates a package volume growth of 15-18% in 2024, aiming to solidify its competitive advantage [5]. Financial Summary - For FY 2023, the company reported revenues of 38.4 billion yuan, with a projected revenue of 41.9 billion yuan for FY 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 9.1% [7]. - The EBITDA for FY 2023 was 13.9 billion yuan, with expectations of 15.4 billion yuan for FY 2024, indicating a growth rate of 11.2% [7]. - The net profit for FY 2023 was 8.7 billion yuan, with a forecasted net profit of 9.5 billion yuan for FY 2024, representing an 8.2% growth rate [7]. - The company plans to increase its dividend payout, announcing a regular cash dividend of at least 40% of the distributable profits starting in 2024, alongside a share buyback program expansion to 2 billion USD [6][7]. Valuation Metrics - The report projects a Non-GAAP net profit growth rate of 5.2% for FY 2024, with an expected PE ratio of 13 times for 2024 [6][7]. - The company’s return on equity (ROAE) is expected to be 15.1% in FY 2024, slightly decreasing from 15.4% in FY 2023 [7][8]. - The net debt to equity ratio is projected to remain at a cash position, indicating a strong balance sheet [8].

港股公司报告 | 公司点评 中通快递-W（02057） 证券研究报告 2024年03月 26日 投资评级 成本优化助推盈利提升，龙头企业强者恒强 行业 工业/工用运输 6个月评级 买入（维持评级） 盈利高速增长，市场份额稳步提升 当前价格 166.9港元 目标价格 港元 公司发布 2023 年业绩公告：财务业绩上，23 年公司实现营业收入384.19 亿元，同比增长8.6%；实现调整后净利润 90.06 亿元，同比增长32.3%。 基本数据 23Q4公司实现营业收入106.19亿元，同比增长 7.6%；实现调整后净利润 港股总股本(百万股) 823.52 22.14亿元，同比增长4.4%。经营业绩上，23年公司完成业务量302.02亿 件，同比增长23.8%，23Q4 完成业务量 87.05 亿件，同比增长32.0%，均 港股总市值(百万港元) 137,445.80 高于行业同期增速19.4%、27.4%；因此23年公司市占率提高至22.9%，同 每股净资产(港元) 80.18 比+0.8pcts，稳坐行业龙头，同时与后位企业份额差距持续走扩。根据公司 资产负债率(%) 31.86 件量指引，公司24年有望实 ...

证券研究报告 公 2024年03月25日 司 报 告 中通快递-W(02057) 行 业： 交通运输/物流 │ 港 投资评级： 买入（维持） 股 当前价格： 164.40港元 分红率提升至 40%，龙头地位稳固 - 公 目标价格： 225.73港元 司 事件： 年 基本数据 报 点 2023年，公司全年实现营收 384.19亿元，同比增长 8.6%，实现归母净利 总股本/流通股本(百万股) 812.87/812.87 评 润87.49亿元，同比增长28.5%。其中，2023年四季度实现收入106.19亿 流通市值(百万港元) 133,635.28 元，同比增长7.6%，实现归母净利润21.92亿元，同比增长1.4%。2023年 每股净资产(元) 74.19 公司每股派息0.62美元，分红率约为41.4%。 资产负债率(%) 33.08 ➢ 公司快递业务量同比增长24%，市占率提升至22.9% 一年内最高/最低(港元) 236.40/124.10 2023年，公司全年完成快递业务量 302.0 亿件，同比增长 23.8%，市场份 额为 22.9%，同比提升 0.8pct，龙头地位稳固。其中四季度公司完成快递 股 ...

公 司 研 究 中通快递-W（02057.HK）：业绩符合 2024年3月25日 强烈推荐/维持 预期，派息提升值得关注 东 中通快递-W 公司报告 兴 证 公司简介： 券 事件：公司发布2023年报，全年实现业务量302.0亿件,同比增长23.8%，市 中通快递是一家集快递、物流、电商、印务 股 场份额较去年提升0.8pct至22.9%，全年调整后净利润90.1亿元，同比增长 于一体的大型集团公司。公司通过全国网络 份 32.3%。四季度单季，公司实现业务量87.1亿件,同比增长32.0%，市场份额 等增值服务提供相应的快递服务，其运营模 有 较去年提升0.8pct至22.3%，单季调整后净利润22.1亿元，同比增长4.4%。 式为高度可扩展的网络合作伙伴模式。服务 限 项目有国内快递、国际快递、物流配送与仓 价格竞争激烈导致单票收入下降，直客业务优化基本完成：2023 年全年行业 储等，提供“门到门”服务和限时(当天件、 公 处于激烈的价格竞争状态，公司核心单票收入下降0.16元，同比下降11.3%， 次晨达、次日达等)服务，同时开展电子商 司 务配送、代收货款、签单返回、到付、代取 其中0.05元为增量 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for ZTO Express [2][4] Core Views - ZTO Express reported a revenue of 38.4 billion RMB in 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 8.6%, and an adjusted net profit of 9.01 billion RMB, up 32.3% year-on-year [4] - The company achieved a business volume of 30.2 billion parcels in 2023, a growth of 23.8%, outperforming the industry average by 4.3 percentage points, with a market share of 22.9%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points year-on-year [4] - ZTO Express has significantly increased its dividend and share buyback ratio, with a dividend of 0.62 USD per share for 2023, representing a payout ratio of 40%, and plans for semi-annual dividends starting in 2024 [4] - The company has adjusted its profit forecast for 2024-2025, now expecting adjusted net profits of 10.87 billion RMB and 13.09 billion RMB respectively, down from previous estimates due to anticipated tax expenses related to dividends [4] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue (in million RMB): 2022: 35,377, 2023: 38,419, 2024E: 44,406, 2025E: 50,050, 2026E: 56,519 [5] - Adjusted Net Profit (in million RMB): 2022: 6,806, 2023: 9,006, 2024E: 10,873, 2025E: 13,090, 2026E: 15,669 [5] - Business Volume (in billion parcels): 2023: 30.2, 2024E: 35.0, 2025E: 39.6, 2026E: 43.9 [6] - Market Share: 2023: 22.9%, 2024E: 23.1%, 2025E: 23.3%, 2026E: 23.5% [6] - Price-to-Earnings Ratio: 2023: 13.7x, 2024E: 11.4x, 2025E: 9.5x, 2026E: 7.9x [5]

提高分红，加大回购，业绩符合预期 ——中通快递 23Q4 业绩点评 中通快递-W（2057.HK）/物流 证券研究报告/公司点评 2024 年3月 22日 [Table_Industry] [评Ta级ble：_T买itle入] （维持） [公Ta司ble盈_F利in预anc测e1及] 估值 市场价格：176.2港元 指标 2022 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E 营业收入（百万元） 35377 38419 42787 49252 53942 分析师：苏畅 营业收入增速 16% 9% 11% 15% 10% 执业证书编号：S0740523110001 归母净利润 6809 8749 9664 12228 13384 电话：021-20315125 净利润增长率 43% 28% 10% 27% 9% 摊薄每股收益（元） 8.23 10.58 11.69 14.79 16.18 Email：suchang@zts.com.cn 净资产收益率 12% 15% 15% 16% 16% 分析师：王旭晖 P/E 19.8 15.0 13.6 11.0 10.0 执业证书编号：S0740523110003 P/ ...

公司研 究 证 券研究 报 告 交通运输 2024年03月22日 中 通快递-SW（02057.HK）2023 年业绩点评 推 荐 （维持） 业绩符合预期，领先优势持续，分红回购彰 目标价：218港元 显投资价值 当前价：164港元  公司发布 2023 年年度业绩公告。1）2023 年实现营业收入 384.2 亿元，同比 华创证券研究所 +8.6%，净利润87.5亿元，同比+31.5%，调整后净利润为90亿元，同比+32.3%， 净利率为 22.8%，同比+3.5pct。2023 年每股分配 0.62 美金，同比+68%。2） 证券分析师：吴一凡 2023年第四季度实现营业收入106.2亿元，同比+7.6%，净利润22.1亿元，同 电话：021-20572539 比+3.8%，调整后净利润22.1亿元，同比+4.4%，净利率20.8%。 邮箱：wuyifan@hcyjs.com  经营数据：2023年全年包裹量为302亿件，同比+23.8%，超越行业增速4.4pct， 执业编号：S0360516090002 市场份额22.9%，同比+0.8%；通达系2023年件量增速排名：申通（35.2%）> 证券分析 ...