Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for Meta or the semiconductor industry, indicating that Meta is "Not rated" [1]. Core Insights - Meta is aggressively pursuing its ASIC (Application-Specific Integrated Circuit) roadmap, which is expected to create new business opportunities within the semiconductor supply chain despite a significant volume mismatch between upstream and downstream production [1][2]. - The anticipated production volume for MTIA ASIC-based designs from Broadcom is estimated to be between 300,000 to 400,000 units in 2026, while Meta's expectations range from 1 to 1.5 million units for the same period [2]. - The MTIA T-V1.5 chip, set for mass production in the second half of 2026, is projected to be a major volume driver, potentially accounting for 70-80% of total MTIA ASIC shipments [2][4]. - The semiconductor supply chain must focus on increasing MTIA ASIC volume shipments starting in 2026, with a particular emphasis on the capabilities of leading foundries like TSMC to meet the expected demand [3]. Summary by Sections ASIC Production and Specifications - Meta's MTIA ASIC production forecast includes several models, with the MTIA T-V1.5 expected to be a significant contributor to volume, and the MTIA T-V2 anticipated to adopt SolC design in 2027 [3][4]. - The MTIA T-V1.5 chip is larger than previously expected, which may present technological challenges during initial ramp-up stages [2]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights the increasing aggressiveness of cloud service providers (CSPs) in deploying their own AI ASIC solutions, with Meta being a key player in this trend [1]. - The report suggests that the semiconductor industry is evolving towards larger chip sizes, necessitating more advanced packaging technologies [3]. Future Outlook - If Meta can successfully ramp up production, it is expected to become a significant adopter of SolC technology alongside competitors like AMD and Apple [3]. - The report indicates that the semiconductor supply chain will need to adapt to the growing demand for AI chips, particularly in light of Meta's ambitious production goals [3].

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Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the companies mentioned, but it highlights potential beneficiaries of Broadcom's Tomahawk 6 launch, indicating a positive outlook for certain players in the AI networking value chain [1][20]. Core Insights - Broadcom's Tomahawk 6 (TH6) switch chip, launched on June 3, 2025, utilizes 3nm technology and supports 200G SerDes, enhancing networking transmission bandwidth and reducing latency. This launch is expected to drive a new technology upgrade cycle in the global AI infrastructure and networking markets, benefiting companies with advanced technologies [1][36]. - The report identifies key players that may benefit from the TH6 upgrade cycle, including Zhongji InnoLight and Suzhou TFC in the optical transceiver market, Shennan Circuits and WUS PCB in PCB/CCL manufacturing, and Unisplendour in AI server/switch manufacturing [1]. - The report discusses the competitive landscape of AI networking, highlighting the shift from Ethernet to NVIDIA's InfiniBand in large-scale AI data centers, while also noting the emergence of Ultra Ethernet specifications aimed at improving communication efficiencies for scaling out AI clusters [2][20]. Summary by Sections AI Networking Overview - The AI networking market is divided into scale-out and scale-up networks, with Ethernet historically leading in traditional data centers but losing ground to InfiniBand in AI infrastructure deployments [2][11]. - The Ultra Ethernet Consortium has developed specifications to enhance Ethernet's capabilities, aiming to regain momentum in the AI networking space [2][13]. Scale-Up Networking Technologies - NVIDIA's NVLink and the newly developed UALink Consortium's Ultra Accelerator Link are key technologies for scale-up networking, enabling high-speed interconnections between GPUs and AI accelerators [3][24]. - Broadcom's Scale-Up Ethernet (SUE) aims to provide low latency and high bandwidth connectivity for XPU scale-up networks, competing with NVIDIA's NVLink [31][34]. Market Dynamics and Trends - The global AI application landscape shows strong growth, with OpenAI's ChatGPT leading in daily active users (DAU), reaching 110 million in early June 2025 [4][74]. - In China, Bytedance's Doubao has surpassed DeepSeek in DAU, indicating a competitive generative AI application market [5][77]. Competitive Landscape - Broadcom's TH6 switch chip offers a switching capacity of 102.4 Tbps, significantly higher than its predecessors, and is designed to support both scale-up and scale-out architectures [36][41]. - Competitors like Cisco and NVIDIA are also advancing their switch technologies, with Cisco's SiliconOne G200 and NVIDIA's Spectrum series providing strong alternatives in the market [41][42]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates a rapid growth in demand for 1.6T optical modules and data center interconnects driven by the adoption of Broadcom's TH6 [38]. - The overall switch market is projected to grow, with cloud service providers expected to account for a significant portion of data center switch sales by 2027 [52][53].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific securities [12]. Core Insights - The projected USD/CNY fix is 7.1799, which is 10 pips higher than the previous projection of 7.1789 and 3 pips lower than the previous official spot close [1]. - The model projection with the counter-cyclical factor is 7.1746, indicating a decrease of 43 pips from the previous fix [1]. - The top four weighted contributions to the projected change in the currency fix are from RUB, EUR, JPY, and KRW, with varying impacts measured in pips [3]. Summary by Sections Currency Projections - The USD/CNY fix model projects a value of 7.1799, reflecting a slight increase from the previous model [1]. - The model with the counter-cyclical factor suggests a lower projection of 7.1746, indicating a potential adjustment in currency valuation [1]. Contributions to Change - The report highlights the top four currencies contributing to the projected change, with RUB, EUR, JPY, and KRW being the most significant [3]. Model Performance - Recent model errors without counter-cyclical factor adjustments show a range of daily model errors, indicating fluctuations in the accuracy of projections [5]. - The daily change in USD/CNY fix has shown significant variability, with changes recorded in pips over the specified period [7].

US Economic Weekly Economics - North America Waiting game Research Analysts North America Economics David Seif - NSI david.seif@nomura.com +1 212 667 9180 Aichi Amemiya - NSI aichi.amemiya@nomura.com +1 212 667 9347 Jeremy Schwartz - NSI jeremy.schwartz@nomura.com +1 212 667 9637 June FOMC meeting – hawkish on net The June FOMC meeting was hawkish on net. The 2025 median rate projection was left unchanqed at two cuts, but the committee was highly divided with 10 participants expectinq 2 or 3 rate cuts this ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific companies involved in AI ASIC servers. Core Insights - The AI ASIC market is expected to grow significantly, with Meta's MTIA AI servers potentially marking a milestone in 2026. The total AI ASIC volume could exceed nVidia's AI GPU volume by 2026 [1][3][12] - nVidia currently dominates the AI server market with over 80% market value, while ASIC AI servers hold approximately 8-11% market value share. However, unit comparisons suggest that Google and AWS's AI ASICs could reach 40-60% of nVidia's GPU volume by 2025 [1][3] - Meta's MTIA AI server is projected to ramp up significantly, with expectations of 1 to 1.5 million units of MTIA V1 and V1.5 by late 2025 to 2026 [10][12] Summary by Sections AI ASIC Market Dynamics - The AI ASIC market is experiencing aggressive growth, with more cloud service providers (CSPs) developing their own ASIC solutions, including Meta and Microsoft [1][3] - nVidia is responding to competition by unveiling NVLink Fusion, which allows inter-chip connections between its GPUs and third-party CPUs, indicating a proactive approach to maintain its market position [2] Meta's MTIA AI Server Development - Meta's MTIA AI server is set to launch its first ASIC (MTIA T-V1) by late 2025, with subsequent versions (V1.5 and V2) expected in mid-2026 and 2027, respectively [9][10] - The MTIA T-V1.5 is anticipated to be significantly more powerful than V1, with a larger interposer size and complex design [9][10] Supply Chain and Component Insights - Key suppliers for Meta's MTIA projects include Quanta, Unimicron, EMC, WUS, and Bizlink, which are expected to benefit from the growing demand for AI ASICs [12][13][14][15][19] - The report highlights the importance of baseboard management controllers (BMCs) in Meta's ASIC AI server development, with an estimated 23 BMCs per rack [17][18] Competitive Landscape - Despite nVidia's current leadership in AI computing, the report suggests that the gap is narrowing as ASIC solutions improve in specifications and performance [3][7] - The specifications of AI ASICs from companies like Google and AWS are catching up to nVidia's offerings, although nVidia still holds advantages in connectivity and ecosystem [7][8]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific companies within it [1]. Core Insights - The model projection for USD/CNY fix is 7.1680, which is 123 pips lower than the previous projection of 7.1803 and 144 pips lower from the previous official spot close [1]. - The model projection with the counter-cyclical factor is 7.1622, indicating a decrease of 181 pips from the previous fix [1]. - The top four weighted contributions to the projected change (in pips) are negative, with AUD, EUR, GBP, and JPY showing significant declines [3]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Model Projections - The USD/CNY fix model projects a value of 7.1680, which reflects a downward adjustment compared to previous figures [1]. - The counter-cyclical factor adjustment results in a slightly lower projection of 7.1622 [1]. Section 2: Contributions to Change - The report highlights the top four currencies contributing to the projected change, all showing negative contributions, indicating a bearish sentiment in the foreign exchange market [3]. Section 3: Daily Model Errors - Recent model errors without counter-cyclical factor adjustments show significant fluctuations, with daily errors reaching up to 400 pips [5]. - The daily change in USD/CNY fix has also exhibited volatility, with notable pips changes recorded over the specified period [7].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Credit growth in China remained steady in May despite disappointing loan growth, with new aggregate financing (AF) at RMB2,289 billion, slightly below market expectations [5][8] - The growth rate of outstanding AF remained unchanged at 8.7% year-on-year [5][8] - New RMB loans were significantly weaker than expected at RMB620 billion, leading to a decline in the growth rate of outstanding RMB loans to a historical low of 7.1% year-on-year [5][6][8] - The slowdown in loan growth is attributed to the ongoing government debt swap program, which has reduced new long-term corporate loan issuance [5][7] Summary by Sections Aggregate Financing - New aggregate financing (AF) in May was RMB2,289 billion, below the consensus of RMB2,332 billion and Nomura's forecast of RMB2,374 billion [5][8] - The growth in outstanding AF remained steady at 8.7% year-on-year, unchanged from April [5][8] - Government bonds were the primary driver of AF, with net financing rising to RMB1,463 billion in May from RMB1,227 billion a year ago [9] Loan Growth - New RMB loans fell to RMB620 billion in May, significantly below the consensus of RMB900 billion and the previous year's RMB950 billion [6][8] - The growth of outstanding RMB loans decreased to 7.1% year-on-year in May from 7.2% in April, marking a new historical low [5][6] - The decline in new loans was primarily due to a sharp decrease in medium- to long-term loans and bill financing [7][13] Monetary Policy and Future Expectations - The People's Bank of China (PBoC) is expected to introduce new policy-based financing tools at the upcoming Lujiazui Forum, aimed at supporting science & technology, expanding consumption, and stabilizing foreign trade [2][3] - The new funding initiative could be around RMB500 billion, similar to a previous program introduced in 2022, which focused on major projects in various sectors [3]

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the EDA software industry or companies within it [1]. Core Insights - The US government has imposed restrictions on EDA software exports to China, requiring US EDA companies to obtain licenses for supplying to Chinese customers [1][2]. - The global EDA software market was valued at approximately USD 16 billion in 2024, with China's share increasing from 10% to around 15%, equating to about CNY 17-18 billion [5][6]. - The Chinese EDA market has experienced an annual growth rate of over 10% in recent years, driven by demand from AI and autonomous driving, but is expected to decline by approximately 10% year-on-year in 2025 due to the new restrictions [5][6]. - Global EDA suppliers currently dominate the Chinese market, accounting for 80-85% of the market share, with Synopsys and Cadence being the leading players [5][6]. Summary by Sections Current Updates and Impact of US EDA Software Restrictions - There are no detailed rules for the EDA software restrictions yet, and it may serve as a bargaining chip in US-China trade negotiations [5]. - US EDA companies have halted website access, software downloads, and technical support for Chinese customers, although existing authorized tools can still be used without updates [5]. Global/China EDA Market Size and Competition Landscape - The global EDA market was valued at around USD 16 billion in 2024, with China's market share rising to approximately 15% [5]. - Major players in the Chinese EDA market include Synopsys, Cadence, and Siemens' Mentor, with Synopsys leading in revenue, particularly in the IP business [5][6]. Progress of Domestic Substitution in China - Empyrean Technology is noted as a leading local player with comprehensive EDA product offerings, capable of replacing global solutions for analog ICs in 14nm+ processes [6]. - The domestic substitution process for advanced EDA software will take time, requiring cooperation across the semiconductor supply chain [6].

策略 策略报告 [TABLE_COVER] 一致预期的长尾 2025 年下半年展望 [Table_first1] 中国 A 股策略 2025 年 06 月 06 日 [Table_first3] 分析师 策略研究团队 宋劲 jin.song@nomuraoi-sec.com SAC 执证编号：S1720519120002 傅尔 er.fu@nomuraoi-sec.com SAC 执证编号：S1720524010001 65413995/61850/20250610 16:55 在美国经济避免硬着陆的基准情形下，我们看好 AH 市场下半年相对和绝 对收益机会。全球宏观预期已被市场较长期计价，目前全球市场正再度迈 入一致预期的长尾期。面对美国经济强现实弱预期、中国经济弱现实强预 期的割裂，我们认为预期与现实间的错位将在下半年逐步被高频数据所验 证，当前投资者已再度站在十字路口。国际资金推动的"去美元化"叙事将 在交易层面叠加额外波动性。 从股权风险溢价（ERP）角度来看，我们认为沪深 300 仍具配置价值。鉴 于银行业在今年经营压力增加，我们预计金融行业净利率将小幅走低，同 时基于我们对当前宏观增速的预期，我们 ...