Asia Insights Global Markets Research Economics - Asia ex-Japan The weekly China chart book: Fiscal situation remains challenging Last week, we highlighted the better-than-expected January-February activity data mask underlying serious challenges. Today, January-February fiscal data were released and point to a bleak picture. Amid weak domestic demand and heightened deflationary pressures, tax revenues contracted again. Expenditure was underwhelming, as the resumed sharp decline in property-related revenues ...

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the industry or companies mentioned Core Insights - The Co-Packaged Optics (CPO) technology is expected to be a significant trend in the optical communication sector, potentially disrupting the existing value chain within the next 2-3 years [14][40] - The global switch market has shown robust growth, with a year-on-year increase of 20.1% in 2023, surpassing USD 40 billion, driven by the scaling of large language model training and data centers [20][21] - CPO shipments are projected to start with small volumes and dominate the 3.2T segment by 2028-2029, with penetration rates in the AI Data Center switch market expected to reach 2% in 2025, 22% in 2027, and 32% in 2030 [2][27] Summary by Sections CPO Technology and Market Outlook - NVIDIA is set to launch its first generation of CPO switch, Quantum 3400 X800, at the GPU Technology Conference (GTC) 2025, with mass production expected to begin in July 2025 [15][45] - Broadcom has introduced the Tomahawk 5 Bailly, a 51.2T Ethernet switch CPO product, which integrates advanced optical engines and is designed to operate at significantly lower power consumption [3][47] - The report estimates that CPO switch penetration in the AI Data Center switch market could reach 2% in 2025, 22% in 2027, and 32% in 2030, indicating a growing acceptance of this technology [27][28] Key Players and Developments - Major players in the CPO market include NVIDIA, Broadcom, and TSMC, with each company making significant advancements in CPO technology [3][41] - Chinese companies such as Suzhou TFC and Accelink are also positioned to benefit from the CPO trend, focusing on optical component manufacturing [4][56] - The report highlights that the integration of optical and electronic components through CPO technology can lead to reduced costs and power consumption, enhancing overall system performance [36][38] AI Applications and Market Dynamics - OpenAI's ChatGPT continues to lead in global AI applications, with a daily active user count fluctuating between 60-63 million, while DeepSeek has emerged as a leading app in China's generative AI market with a DAU of 49 million [5][62] - The competitive landscape in AI applications is evolving, with new models like OpenAI's GPT-4.5 and Alibaba's QwQ-32B being introduced, showcasing advancements in performance and efficiency [10][79] - The report notes that the global AI market is experiencing sustained growth, particularly in China, driven by increasing user engagement and the introduction of innovative AI solutions [60][67]

野村东方国际 必选悦悦谈第十五期：细说全球烟草（菲莫&英美）20250315 摘要 全球新型烟草行业经历了多次技术迭代和变革。上世纪六七十年代，美国人最 早发明了对液态尼古丁加热产生蒸汽的无烟和非烟草香烟，为电子烟技术奠定 基础。2004 年，唐韩立取得了电子烟发明专利并实现商业化。1998 年，菲莫 国际推出电加热型产品，电加热技术逐渐成为主流，并推出超级大单品 IQOS。2016 年后，日本烟草、英美烟草等公司陆续推出同类型的大单品，加 热不燃烧产品市场蓬勃发展。 根据第三方研究数据，全球烟草市场结构正在发 生显著变化。传统烟草的增长趋于稳定，而新型烟草则处于快速增长状态。例 如，以菲莫国际为代表的无烟产品收入增速在双位数以上，某些超级大单品的 增速高达 40%到 50%。相比之下，传统品牌如万宝路的增长仅为极低个位数。 区域市场方面，北美市场增速领先，在过去 15 年间呈爆发式增长，但因政策 要求，如薄荷味电子烟规模下降。而亚洲市场尤其是日本市场增速迅猛，一定 程度上弥补了北美调味电子烟下滑带来的缺口。在政策方面，中国对电子烟监 管较为严格，加强未成年人保护，并规范广告和促销。 消费群体方面，无烟产 品 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The Japanese stock market experienced significant valuation increases during three notable periods post the 1990s bubble burst, with PE ratios reaching as high as 159 times [2][4] - The analysis of the 1990s low-interest environment reveals a clear distinction between periods driven by fundamentals and those driven by valuation changes, particularly in the consumer sector [5][20] - The food and beverage sector showed relative stability despite a slight revenue decline, indicating a shift in consumer behavior towards essential goods [8][25] Summary by Sections Historical Context - The report outlines the four phases of Japan's declining interest rates from the early 1990s to the late 1990s, highlighting the impact on various consumer sectors [6][7] - The initial phase saw a 40% drop in the market, while subsequent phases experienced varying degrees of recovery and decline across sectors [7][14] Sector Performance - In the 1994-1995 recovery period, all sub-sectors showed improvement, with retail profits soaring by 180% and significant revenue increases across various industries [13][17] - The food and beverage sector's revenue grew by 4% during the 1996-2000 period, but profits declined by 13%, reflecting a challenging environment [15][17] - The electrical equipment sector outperformed others, with a revenue increase of 5% and profit growth of 7% during the same period [17] Valuation Dynamics - The report emphasizes the shift from fundamental-driven performance in 1994-1995 to valuation-driven performance in 1996-2000, with significant declines in PE ratios across most consumer sectors [20][21] - Essential goods like food and beverages maintained stable valuations, contrasting sharply with the volatility seen in discretionary sectors [25] Consumer Behavior Trends - The report notes that during the economic recovery, discretionary spending surged, particularly in the wholesale and retail sectors, with substantial increases in both revenue and profit [24] - Essential sectors demonstrated resilience, with minimal fluctuations in valuations compared to more volatile discretionary sectors [25]

野村东方国际 知己知彼，论赶超韩国家电双雄关键 20250313 摘要 Q&A 韩国企业三星和 LG 在家电业务的现状和未来发展战略如何？ 三星和 LG 是中国企业在国际市场上的主要竞争对手。三星的家电业务在其集团 收入中占比约为 20%，相较于半导体和手机业务的重要性较低。具体来看，三 星的白电（如冰箱、洗衣机）和黑电（如电视）的收入占比约为 55%和 45%。其 中，黑电的盈利能力优于白电，高端产品占比超过 50%。然而，三星在空调业 • 三星家电业务受益于欧美市场消费者补贴，但受供应链和地缘政治影响， 盈利能力在 2021 年后下降，2023 年开始回暖。未来战略重点是 AI 技术应 用，如 AFW 战略和 SmartThings 平台，该平台已突破 10 亿次下载。 • LG 电子家电业务收入占比高于三星，且盈利能力更强。2024 年家电收入约 为 2000 亿人民币，虽略低于三星的 2,400 亿，但领先于美的和海信。LG 白电依赖高端化策略，盈利能力优于黑电。 • LG 未来战略侧重平台型转型，通过家电租赁业务和 webOS 系统内嵌广告及 内容服务增加收入。家电租赁模式已在韩国本土市场取得 30 ...

野村东方国际 以史为鉴：思科启示录下的英伟达坐标审视 20250312 摘要 Q&A 当前 AI 基建的资本开支情况如何？市场对其未来发展有何担忧？ 目前，AI 基建的资本开支已经持续接近两年。自今年年初以来，市场开始担忧 是否存在泡沫风险，有些人将当前的 AI 投资周期与 2021 年初的互联网泡沫进 行对比。我们研究的初衷是分析思科在互联网泡沫时期从下游暴雷到业绩受到 • 思科在互联网泡沫时期通过并购迅速扩张，成为网络设备市场领导者，但 下游互联网公司业绩暴雷导致需求萎缩，最终波及思科自身业绩，股价大 幅下跌，股价高点早于业绩高点约三个季度，是需求放缓的先行指标。 • 英伟达当前面临 ASIC 解决方案兴起和 DeepSeek 大模型训练样本方案带来 的潜在竞争压力，但其在 GPU 加速计算性能和 CUDA 生态方面仍具有显著优 势，预计中短期内仍将主导 AI 算力基础设施建设。 • 本轮 AI 投资周期由大型科技公司主导，这些公司财务状况稳健，能够支撑 长期资本支出投入，与互联网泡沫时期未盈利科技公司依赖融资不同，英 伟达拥有更高稳定性的客户群体。 • 英伟达 GPU 使用寿命较短，云厂商有动力不断进行 ...

野村东方国际 资产重估系列 - 再论红利 20250312 摘要 Q&A 在当前的宏观背景下，股息率定价的适用性如何？ 股息率定价在特定的宏观背景下更为适用，尤其是在央行推动物价回稳且长期 低通胀的环境中。在这种情况下，股息率定价的不确定性因素较少，更有利于 通过股息率来确定资产价格。例如，2013 年至 2019 年期间，日本股票市场的 股息率较长债利率存在约 1.5 个百分点左右的溢价。当前沪深 300 指数的超额 股息率与此相近。如果 A 股的股息率进一步下降，需要看到偿债利率趋势性下 降或国内资产配置荒带来的资金面超调。从波动性角度看，高波动性的 A 股市 • A 股市场股息率的定价参考价值受宏观环境影响，稳定的股息率更适合作 为定价参考，尤其是在低通胀和大量货币投放的情形下。高波动性 A 股需 要更高的股息率作为补偿。 • 红利资产难以成为市场估值锚点，因为在高通胀环境中，股票价格提前反 应自由现金流增长；在通缩环境中，自由现金流受挫导致派息能力下降， 股票作为成长型资产，其价格容易失灵。 • 2024 年红利风格受追捧主要由于国债收益率历史性下降，以及自由现金流 成长性的结构性机会，投资者逐渐从寻 ...

野村东方国际 特朗普 2.0 下的地缘展望 - "美国优先"与 中国出口升级 20250311 摘要 • 美国优先政策旨在重塑商品金融循环，解决贫富差距、高通胀和民粹主义 等问题，并非仅针对中国，而是调整美国与海外经济关系。 • 中美贸易摩擦打破了东亚国家商品顺差与对美金融利差的大循环，冲击全 球经贸，可能促使美国推动美元走弱，对中国出口产业带来挑战。 • 全球贸易正从比较优势转向均衡贸易，中国需加速出口附加值升级，A 股 投资者应关注品牌技术升级下的消费、娱乐和产能出口新机遇。 • 特朗普政府可能通过重振制造业、缩减贫富差距和加征关税等措施维护美 国利益，但更有效的手段可能是推动美元贬值。 • 美国制造业就业比例自 1971 年以来显著下降，加剧贫富差异和孤立主义 情绪，高通胀进一步削弱中下收入群体购买力。 • 解决中美商品金融循环难题需修复贸易和金融两端，中国需通过股权分割、 转口贸易等方式应对地缘政治压力，并依赖新兴市场。 • 中国企业应借鉴日本经验，提高海外投资的商业化回报率和本地化程度， 关注食品饮料、美妆、通信、医药等高附加值行业的出海潜力。 Q&A 在当前复杂的地缘环境下，中国未来的出口升级路径 ...

Early signs of slight liquidity easing, while the equity outperformance theme remains intact. Strategy Trade Global Markets Research Rates - Asia ex-Japan China rates - Steepeners now better value than outright pay See Appendix A-1 for analyst certification, important disclosures and the status of non-US analysts. Valuation now not as stretched as at the start of the year. Over the past couple of months China rates have rebounded thanks to a combination of: 1) the PBoC guiding liquidity tighter, temporarily ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 Asia Insights Global Markets Research Economics - Asia ex-Japan The Hong Kong stock market rally since late January was driven by rounds of calls for a "China's Sputnik moment" and a re-evaluation of China's strength in manufacturing and tech. While we agree that part of the euphoria is justified, as China has been making steady progress, and occasional breakthroughs, in some key sectors, markets should not forget that China's property collapse is not yet over, the damaged fisca ...