Economic Indicators - In January 2025, CPI is expected to grow by 0.5%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month[6] - PPI is projected to decline by 2.0%, narrowing the drop by 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month[7] Monetary Supply - New RMB loans are forecasted at 40,000 billion yuan in January 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 9,200 billion yuan[20] - M2 is expected to grow by 7.5% year-on-year by the end of January 2025, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous period[24] Market Dynamics - The warm winter has led to sufficient food supply, keeping CPI growth low[7] - Rising oil prices are contributing to a continued narrowing of PPI decline[16] - Localized debt issues and the timing of the Spring Festival are leading to reduced credit demand[22] Currency Outlook - The RMB exchange rate is anticipated to fluctuate between 7.1 and 7.2 in February 2025, supported by global interest rate cuts and technological advancements in China[26][28]

Export Performance - In December 2024, China's total export value reached $335.63 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 10.7%, an increase of 4.0 percentage points from the previous month[6] - Exports of automobiles (including chassis) saw a significant increase, contributing to the overall growth in exports, particularly to the EU and ASEAN countries[7] - Year-on-year export growth to major trading partners was 15.6% to the US, 8.8% to the EU, and 18.9% to ASEAN, reflecting a broad recovery in external demand[10] Import Performance - In December 2024, China's total import value was $230.79 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 1.0%, up 4.9 percentage points from the previous month[14] - Imports from ASEAN and Japan showed notable growth, with year-on-year increases of 5.44% and 6.33%, respectively[14] - The manufacturing PMI for China was at 50.1, indicating a stable manufacturing sector, although demand for traditional bulk commodities like iron ore remains low due to ongoing economic adjustments[14] Trade Balance - The trade surplus for December 2024 was $104.84 billion, reflecting an expansion in the trade balance despite the increase in both exports and imports[6] - The overall trade dynamics indicate a recovery in both export and import growth rates, contributing to a larger trade surplus[6] Future Outlook - The external environment is expected to remain complex in 2025, with potential risks and opportunities impacting export growth, particularly due to political changes in major Western economies[17] - Import growth is anticipated to continue its recovery trend, supported by domestic economic stabilization policies, although challenges from the real estate market and global trade barriers may persist[18]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In December 2024, the CPI increased by 0.1% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from November, and remained flat month-on-month, reflecting insufficient consumer demand and low economic activity[6] - The main factor for the CPI decline was the drop in food price growth, which decreased by 0.5% year-on-year, a decline of 1.5 percentage points from the previous month[11] - The "stabilize growth and promote consumption" policies are beginning to show effects, with a gradual recovery in consumer spending observed[9] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The PPI fell by 2.3% year-on-year in December 2024, with the decline narrowing by 0.2 percentage points compared to November, indicating ongoing economic pressure and insufficient effective demand[6] - The PPI's month-on-month change was -0.1%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, highlighting the need for further economic stimulus[6] - The divergence in price trends between traditional industries and high-tech sectors was noted, with black metal prices down 9.5% and non-ferrous metal prices up 10.0% year-on-year[26] Group 3: Future Outlook - The CPI growth rate may rise slightly in 2025 due to the low base effect and the impact of consumption-promoting policies, but significant increases are unlikely due to persistent economic pressures[36] - The PPI is expected to see a slight increase in 2025, driven by a potential global interest rate cut and recovery in major economies, but domestic economic challenges remain[36] - The report emphasizes the need to address the issue of insufficient demand, which continues to hinder price increases in the consumer market[36]

Economic Growth - Industrial added value in November 2024 increased by 5.4% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations, with manufacturing as the main support[5] - Fixed asset investment growth for January-November 2024 was 3.3%, a slight decline of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[18] - Social retail sales in November 2024 grew by 3.0%, down 1.8 percentage points from October, influenced by high base effects[18] Trade and Exports - In November 2024, total exports reached $312.31 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.7%, but down 6.0 percentage points from the previous month[31] - Imports in November 2024 decreased by 3.9% year-on-year, a decline of 1.6 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting reduced demand for traditional commodities[37] Inflation and Prices - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in November 2024 rose by 0.2% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from October, indicating weak effective demand[42] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 2.5% year-on-year in November 2024, with the decline narrowing by 0.4 percentage points from October, signaling a potential bottoming out of industrial prices[42] Monetary Policy and Financing - New RMB loans in November 2024 totaled 580 billion yuan, a significant decrease of 510 billion yuan year-on-year, indicating weak credit demand[9] - The M2 money supply grew by 7.1% year-on-year in November 2024, reflecting a stable monetary environment despite a slight decline from the previous month[10]

Export Performance - In November 2024, China's total export value reached $312.31 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 6.7%, a decrease of 6.0 percentage points from the previous month[6] - The export growth rate was affected by a high base effect from November 2023, which had a year-on-year growth of 0.5%[8] - Major export markets, excluding the US, such as the EU and Japan, continued to experience economic downturns, contributing to the decline in export growth[6] Import Performance - In November 2024, China's total import value was $214.87 billion, showing a year-on-year decline of 3.9%, a drop of 1.6 percentage points from the previous month[13] - The decrease in imports was attributed to ongoing domestic economic adjustments and reduced demand for traditional bulk commodities like iron ore[13] - Year-on-year import growth rates from major trading partners were -11.22% from the US, -6.55% from the EU, -2.49% from Japan, and -3.04% from ASEAN[13] Trade Balance - The trade surplus for November 2024 was $97.44 billion, indicating an expansion despite the decline in both export and import growth rates[6] - The overall trade balance reflects a complex interplay of external demand and domestic economic conditions[6] Future Outlook - The report anticipates that global economic recovery in 2024 may stabilize export growth, supported by low base effects and improving external demand[16] - Domestic policies aimed at stabilizing foreign trade and optimizing export structures are expected to bolster future export performance[16] - Import growth is projected to gradually improve due to domestic economic recovery, although challenges from the real estate market and global trade barriers may persist[17]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In November 2024, the CPI year-on-year growth was 0.2%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from October[4] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.3% year-on-year, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[4] - Food prices saw a significant decline due to increased supply and lower transportation costs, with fresh vegetables dropping 10.0% year-on-year[8] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The PPI fell by 2.5% year-on-year in November 2024, with the decline narrowing by 0.4 percentage points compared to October[4] - Industrial product prices showed signs of recovery, with a month-on-month increase of 0.1%[4] - The decrease in PPI was influenced by a low base effect and a rebound in durable consumer goods prices[24] Group 3: Consumer Behavior - Consumer demand showed signs of weak recovery, with non-food prices increasing by 0.0% year-on-year, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month[14] - Retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.8% year-on-year in October, indicating a gradual expansion in consumption[14] - Transportation and communication prices saw a significant reduction in decline, contributing to the rise in non-food price growth[14] Group 4: Future Outlook - The CPI growth rate is expected to rise in 2024 due to the implementation of consumption-promoting policies and low base effects[32] - The PPI is projected to improve in 2024, with an expected year-on-year growth rate of approximately -2.1%[33]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In October 2024, the CPI increased by 0.3% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from September[3] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.2% year-on-year, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[3] - Food prices saw a significant decline due to increased supply following extreme weather, with a year-on-year growth of 2.9%, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous month[5] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The PPI fell by 2.9% year-on-year in October, with the decline slightly widening by 0.1 percentage points compared to September[3] - The main factor contributing to the PPI decrease was the decline in durable goods prices, which continued to exert downward pressure[3] - The PPI's month-on-month decline was 0.1%, a reduction in the rate of decline by 0.5 percentage points from the previous month[3] Group 3: Market Outlook - The report anticipates that CPI growth will rise in 2024 due to the implementation of consumption-boosting policies, with an expected increase to around 0.4%[27] - PPI is projected to improve slightly in 2024, with an expected decline of approximately -1.9% due to the easing of high base effects and recovery in demand[28] - The report emphasizes the need to address insufficient demand, suggesting potential improvements in price performance in the future[3]

Export Performance - In October 2024, China's total export value reached $309.06 billion, marking a year-on-year increase of 12.7%, which is a significant rise of 10.3 percentage points from the previous month[2] - The increase in exports is attributed to a global economic upturn and rising external demand, particularly in high-tech industries[4] - Exports to major trading partners showed notable growth, with year-on-year increases of 12.7% to the US and EU, 6.8% to Japan, and 15.8% to ASEAN[7] Import Trends - In October 2024, China's total import value was $213.34 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 2.3%, a decrease of 2.6 percentage points from the previous month[8] - The decline in imports is primarily due to a high base effect from the previous year, where imports had significantly increased[8] - Imports from the US, EU, Japan, and ASEAN showed varied performance, with notable declines from the EU and ASEAN, influenced by the high base effect from October 2023[8] Trade Balance - The trade surplus for October 2024 was $95.72 billion, an increase from the previous month's surplus of $81.71 billion[2] - The overall trade balance reflects a widening gap due to the contrasting trends in export growth and import decline[2] Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the export growth rate may stabilize in 2024, supported by recovering global economies and favorable external demand conditions[10] - For imports, a gradual recovery is expected as domestic economic policies take effect, although challenges remain due to ongoing issues in the real estate market and global trade barriers[11]

北京大学国民经济研究中心 内外环境复杂化，三季度 GDP 出现回调 ——蔡含篇 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------|-------------|----------------|----------|-------------------------------|-------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------| | 点评报告 | 上年同 期值 | 上期值 | 官方值 | 北大国民 经济研究 中心预测 值 | Choice 市 场预测均 值 | A0012-20241018 \n北京大学国民经济研究中心 \n宏观经济研究课题组 | | | | | 经济增长 | | | | | GDP 当季同 比（%） | | 4.9 4.7 4.6 | | | 5.2 4.9 | 学术指导：刘伟 | | 工业增加 值同比 (%) | 4.5 | | 5.3 5.4 | | 4.3 4. ...

北京大学国民经济研究中心 出口韧性复工复产步伐加快，进出口增速回暖 外部环境趋紧，外贸增速下行 ——蔡含篇 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------|------------------------------|--------|--------|--------------------------------------|-------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------| | 2024 年 9 月 | 进出口点评报告 \n上年同 期值 | 上期值 | 官方值 | 北大国民 经济研究 中心预测 值 | Choice 市 场预测均 值 | A0306-20241015 \n北京大学国民经济研究中心 宏观经济研究课题组 | | 出口同比 (%) | | | | -6.2 8.7 2.4 8.4 8.7 | | | | 进口同比 (%) | | | | -6.3 0.5 0.3 1.1 0.5 | ...