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23年股东权益同比增长6.2%,毛利率仍在下行

First Shanghai Securities· 2024-04-07 16:00
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 30.9, indicating a potential upside of 51.8% from the current price of HKD 20.35 [3][4]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of RMB 596.57 billion for 2023, reflecting an 8.1% year-on-year growth. The net profit increased by 4.6% to RMB 15.01 billion, with shareholder equity rising by 6.2% to RMB 9.05 billion [2][3]. - The overall gross margin has declined by 0.5 percentage points to 8.1%, while the company has effectively controlled expenses, leading to a decrease in distribution and administrative expense ratios [2][3]. - The pharmaceutical distribution segment generated RMB 441.05 billion in revenue, up 8.5%, while the medical device segment grew by 7.8% to RMB 130.21 billion [2][3]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections show a steady increase from RMB 639.73 billion in 2024E to RMB 724.44 billion in 2026E, with annual growth rates ranging from 6.3% to 8.0% [5]. - Net profit is expected to rise from RMB 9.50 billion in 2024E to RMB 10.79 billion in 2026E, with a consistent growth trajectory [5]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is projected to grow from RMB 3.05 in 2024E to RMB 3.46 in 2026E, reflecting a positive outlook for shareholder returns [5]. Segment Performance - The pharmaceutical distribution segment remains the largest contributor, accounting for 71.4% of total revenue, while the medical device and retail segments contribute 21.1% and 5.8%, respectively [2][3]. - The medical device segment is expected to gain traction with new partnerships and product launches, including a joint venture with GE Healthcare [3]. - The retail pharmacy segment has shown improvement, with a 0.73 percentage point increase in operating profit margin to 3.21% and an increase in the number of retail outlets [3].
基本面企稳向好,有望继续受益于民航业复苏
First Shanghai Securities· 2024-04-02 16:00
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price adjusted to HKD 12, indicating a potential upside of 21% from the previous closing price [2][3]. Core Views - The company's performance in 2023 met expectations, with revenue reaching RMB 6.98 billion, a year-on-year increase of 34%, and net profit attributable to shareholders at RMB 1.40 billion, up 123% year-on-year [2][3]. - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery of the civil aviation industry in China, with significant growth in its core aviation information services segment [2][3]. - The report highlights the need for improved dividend payouts, as the company proposed a final cash dividend of HKD 0.16 per share for 2023, resulting in a payout ratio of 33%, up from 25% in the previous year [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company reported total revenue of RMB 6.98 billion, a 34% increase from 2022, and net profit of RMB 1.40 billion, reflecting a 123% growth [2][3]. - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 was RMB 0.48, with a proposed dividend of HKD 0.16 per share [2][3]. - The company’s operating cash flow for 2023 was RMB 1.37 billion, with cash and cash equivalents totaling RMB 7.28 billion, indicating a healthy financial position [2][3]. Business Segments - The aviation information services segment generated RMB 3.85 billion in revenue, a 149% increase year-on-year, with a total processing volume of 620 million passengers, up 148.7% from 2022 [2][3]. - Revenue from settlement and clearing services reached RMB 450 million, a 52.1% increase, while system integration services revenue decreased by 41.4% to RMB 990 million due to fewer projects meeting completion criteria [2][3]. - Data network revenue declined by 5.2% to RMB 390 million, primarily due to reduced demand for distribution information technology services [2][3]. Cost Management - Total operating costs for 2023 were RMB 5.3 billion, a 12.1% increase, driven by rising labor costs and increased commission and promotion expenses [2][3]. - The report emphasizes the company's commitment to stricter cost control measures moving forward to enhance profitability [2][3]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates that the civil aviation industry in China will continue to recover, with the Civil Aviation Administration of China targeting a passenger transport volume of 690 million in 2024, aiming to restore the international passenger market to 80% of pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2024 [2][3]. - The company is positioned to benefit from this recovery due to its established presence in the aviation information technology service sector [2][3].
宏观经济评论
First Shanghai Securities· 2024-04-02 16:00
BKNG 第一上海证券有限公司 www.mystockhk.com 瑞银最近也开始上调了标普 500 指数的目标价至 5400 点,年内还有低个位数的上 涨空间。华尔街资深分析师 Yardeni 的评论最近也开始转牛,认为标普 500 指数有 可能在两年内突破 6500 点,还有 30%的涨幅,但是也提醒避免股市过热导致的崩 溃,尤其是围绕 AI 的炒作。总之现在华尔街都开始撕报告了,改变年初对美股的 保守预测,都开始大幅多次上调。 但也有不好的消息,美国商业地产法拍数量有所增加,有可能影响中小银行的股价 从而间接导致市场情绪连带下跌。 季报大超预期,对整个科技股乃至整个指数都有很强有力的支撑作用,现在英伟达 的市值也接近 2 万亿美元。但市场有少数声音还是对英伟达表现出了一些忧虑,主 要是担心四大云客户在 2025 年之后,在下游应用创收没有达到预期的情况下,可 能会缩减支出,这样会影响英伟达的增速。德意志银行和瑞银都表达了对英伟达未 来收入增速放缓的担忧。 用户640989118于2024-02-28日下载,仅供本人内部使用,不可传播与转载 最近有个好消息,要取代 Walgreens 进入道琼斯指数成分股 ...
23年业绩略有下跌,声学有望升规升配,结构件业务增势强劲
First Shanghai Securities· 2024-04-01 16:00
瑞声科技(2018) 更新报告 买入 2024年4月2日 23年业绩略有下跌,声学有望升规升配,结构件业务增势强劲 陈晓霞 23 年业绩略有下跌:公司 2023 年全年实现收入 204.2 亿元(人民币,下 852-25321956 同),同比下降 1.0%。毛利率为 16.9%,同比下滑 1.4 个百分点。净利 润 7.4 亿,同比下降 9.9%,基本符合预期,主要是因为全球智能手机恢 xx.chen@firstshanghai.com.hk 复不及预期,消费需求疲软。展望 24 年,智能手机市场微复苏,公司 主要数据 IoT、AR/VR 及车载领域均获成果,尤其车载领域取得定点项目和收购 PSS公司,将助力公司全球汽车行业渗透。 行业 TMT 光学业务稳健增长,声学有望升规升配:光学业务实现收入 36.3 亿,同 股价 26.25港元 比增长12.7%,得益于塑胶镜头和光学模组业务产品升级进展顺利以及在 目标价 29.04港元 中高端机型份额的提升,公司全年塑胶镜头和 WLG 镜头出货量同比分别 (+10.6%) 提升 20%和 22%。毛利率为-13%,同比持平。公司去库存进展良好,预计 今年一 ...
轨道交通回暖,新型装备高速增长
First Shanghai Securities· 2024-04-01 16:00
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for CRRC Times Electric (3898) with a target price of HKD 38.1, indicating a potential upside of 53.6% from the current price [2]. Core Views - The report highlights a recovery in rail transit and rapid growth in new equipment, with a net profit growth of 21.5% in 2023, driven by a revenue increase of 20.9% to RMB 21.8 billion [2]. - The rail transit business is showing signs of recovery, with a significant increase in national railway passenger volume, which rose by 128.8% year-on-year, surpassing pre-pandemic levels [2]. - The emerging equipment business is experiencing high growth rates, particularly in power semiconductor devices and new energy vehicle components, with some segments growing over 69% [2]. Financial Summary - In 2023, the company reported revenues of RMB 21.8 billion, with a net profit of RMB 3.1 billion, translating to an earnings per share (EPS) of RMB 2.19 [2][7]. - The revenue breakdown shows rail transit business revenue at RMB 12.9 billion (up 2%) and emerging equipment business revenue at RMB 8.7 billion (up 69.6%) [2]. - The forecast for 2024-2026 projects revenues of RMB 24.5 billion, RMB 27.8 billion, and RMB 30.6 billion, with respective growth rates of 12.4%, 13.6%, and 10.0% [2][7]. Business Segments - The rail transit business is expected to benefit from ongoing demand for locomotive and train replacements, with a total of 22,400 locomotives and 4,427 standard train sets in operation by the end of 2023 [2]. - The emerging equipment segment focuses on two main areas: transportation and energy, with significant investments in research and development, amounting to RMB 2.02 billion in 2023, representing 9.3% of total revenue [2]. - The company has secured new orders for photovoltaic inverters totaling 18.6 GW, ranking among the top three in the industry [2].
完成收购捷普,汽车电子迎高质发展,不断拓宽业务边界
First Shanghai Securities· 2024-04-01 16:00
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company achieved a net profit growth of 118% in 2023, with revenues reaching RMB 130 billion, marking a 21% increase [2] - The completion of the acquisition of Jabil enhances the company's competitiveness in consumer electronics and is expected to boost revenue and profit levels in 2024 [2] - The automotive electronics segment is poised for high-quality development, with new high-value products expected to drive a 50% revenue growth in 2024 [2] - The company is expanding its business boundaries into new categories, including AI servers, home energy storage, smart home products, gaming hardware, and drones [2] - The target price for the company is set at HKD 45, indicating a potential upside of 54.6% from the current price of HKD 28.85 [2] Financial Summary - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2023, the company reported total revenue of RMB 130 billion and a net profit of RMB 4.04 billion [2][5] - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are RMB 160.4 billion, RMB 172.3 billion, and RMB 184.9 billion, with growth rates of 23.4%, 7.4%, and 7.3% respectively [2] - Net profit forecasts for the same period are RMB 5.14 billion, RMB 6.27 billion, and RMB 7.24 billion, with growth rates of 27%, 22%, and 15.5% respectively [2] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 is projected at RMB 1.79, with further increases expected in the following years [2][5] - The company maintains a dividend payout ratio of 30% from 2024 onwards, with dividends per share projected to increase over the years [5]
物管+商管双赛道高品质发展,提升股东回报

First Shanghai Securities· 2024-04-01 16:00
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Resources Vientiane Life (1209) with a target price of HKD 43.20, indicating a potential upside of 74.2% from the current price of HKD 24.75 [1]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated strong growth, with a 22.9% increase in revenue for 2023, reaching CNY 14.77 billion, and a core net profit growth of 32.8% to CNY 2.93 billion [1][2]. - The overall gross margin improved to 31.2% in 2023, with expectations to rise to 31.8% in 2024 [1]. - The management of commercial properties has shown significant improvement, with revenue from this segment increasing by 22.6% to CNY 5.17 billion and gross margin rising to 58.4% [1][2]. - The company is expanding its presence in high-end markets, with rental income from shopping centers growing by 50.6% to CNY 2.20 billion [1]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2023 was CNY 14.77 billion, a 22.9% increase from 2022, with projected revenues of CNY 18.85 billion for 2024 [2]. - Core net profit for 2023 reached CNY 2.93 billion, reflecting a 32.8% year-on-year growth, with expectations of CNY 3.67 billion for 2024 [2]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 was CNY 1.28, with projections of CNY 1.61 for 2024 [2]. - The dividend per share is expected to increase from CNY 0.70 in 2023 to CNY 0.88 in 2024, indicating a dividend yield of 3.2% for 2023 [2]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is positioned among the top tier in the property management industry, benefiting from strong operational capabilities and a stable growth in managed area [1]. - The report highlights the synergy between property management and commercial operations as a key advantage for sustained growth [1]. - The total managed area reached 3.7 billion square meters by the end of 2023, with a significant portion coming from third-party contracts [1].
2023年净利润符合预期,产能利用率已恢复到100%

First Shanghai Securities· 2024-04-01 16:00
Investment Rating - Buy rating with a target price of HKD 98.09, implying a 32.4% upside from the current price of HKD 74.10 [1][3] Core Views - 2023 net profit of RMB 4.56 billion met expectations, with capacity utilization recovering to 100% [1] - Revenue declined 10.1% YoY to RMB 24.97 billion due to weak global consumer demand and customer destocking [1] - Gross margin improved 2.2ppt to 24.3%, driven by higher capacity utilization and overseas factory efficiency [1] - Effective tax rate dropped to 8.8% due to higher overseas profit contribution [1] - Final dividend of HKD 1.08 declared, representing a payout ratio of 60.3% [1] - Double-digit revenue growth expected in 2024 as destocking progresses and capacity utilization remains at 100% [3] Financial Performance - Revenue breakdown by product: sportswear -13.6%, casualwear -1.4%, underwear +30.2%, others -41.6% [2] - Revenue breakdown by region: Europe -19.1%, US -20.4%, Japan -6.4%, other regions -7.6%, China +0.7% [2] - Key customer growth: Nike -10.8%, Adidas -24.1%, Uniqlo +2.9%, Puma -28.1% [2] - Domestic brands' share increased to 11%, while Lululemon accounted for 2% of sales [2] - 2H23 revenue declined 5.5% YoY, with Q4 returning to positive growth [3] - 2H23 gross margin improved 3.1ppt QoQ to 25.8% [3] Forecasts - 2024 revenue forecast at RMB 28.15 billion, +12.8% YoY [4] - 2024 net profit forecast at RMB 5.37 billion, +17.8% YoY [4] - 2024 EPS forecast at RMB 3.57, +17.8% YoY [4] - 2024 dividend forecast at HKD 2.41, with payout ratio maintained at 60% [4] - 2024-2026 revenue CAGR forecast at 13.0% [4] - 2024-2026 net profit CAGR forecast at 17.8% [4] Industry and Company Positioning - The company operates in the apparel and textile industry [2] - It benefits from vertical integration, balanced domestic and overseas presence, and strong management execution [3] - The company is well-positioned as an industry leader with innovative product capabilities [3]
产量逐季度恢复,公司业绩符合预期
First Shanghai Securities· 2024-04-01 16:00
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Yancoal Australia (3668) with a target price of HKD 37.2, indicating a potential upside from the current price of HKD 26.25 [1]. Core Views - The company's performance in 2023 met expectations despite a year-on-year revenue decline of 26%, attributed to falling coal prices. The total revenue recorded was AUD 7.78 billion, with a net profit of AUD 1.82 billion, down 39% year-on-year [1]. - The report anticipates a recovery in production and cash costs in the second half of 2023, with cash costs expected to stabilize between AUD 92-102 per ton in 2024 as production ramps up [1]. - The international coal market is expected to reach a new balance, with coal prices stabilizing in the second half of 2023. The average price for 2024 is projected at AUD 183 per ton [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, Yancoal Australia reported a total revenue of AUD 7.78 billion, a decrease of 26% from the previous year. The net profit was AUD 1.82 billion, reflecting a 39% decline [1][2]. - The average cash cost for the year was AUD 96 per ton, with significant increases in costs during the first half, which improved in the second half due to increased production [1]. Production and Costs - The company is actively restoring production capacity, with coal production expected to return to historical highs. The average coal price for 2023 was AUD 232 per ton [1]. - Cash costs are projected to decrease in 2024 as production increases, with expectations of maintaining costs within the guidance range of AUD 92-102 per ton [1]. Market Outlook - The report highlights a rebalancing in the international coal market, with prices expected to stabilize. The NEWC6000K index is projected to average USD 126 per ton in 2024 [1]. - The anticipated recovery in coal prices is linked to global economic factors and the reopening of the Australian coal market [1]. Dividend and Debt Management - The company has successfully repaid its interest-bearing debts, enhancing its investment value. It declared a fully franked dividend of AUD 0.33 per share for 2023, with a total dividend payout of AUD 9.18 billion [1]. - As of the end of 2023, Yancoal Australia held AUD 1.65 billion in cash and had no interest-bearing debt, only lease liabilities [1].
周报
First Shanghai Securities· 2024-03-27 16:00
公司评论 第一上海研究部 research@firstshanghai.com.hk 2024年3月19日 星期二 【公司评论】 特斯拉(TSLA):周报 李京霖 852-25321957 FSD Beta v12.3 开始大规模推送 Jinglin.li@firstshanghai.com.hk 3月16日凌晨, Teslascope 分享称,FSD Beta v12.3 正在向美国数千辆车推送, 李倩 其中包括美国每个州的 FSD 测试版客户和东海岸的一些车辆。这波 v12 部署中包 852-25321539 含的所有车辆的软件版本都是 2023.44.30.8 和 2023.44.30.14。但在加拿大,本 Chuck.li@firstshanghai.com.hk 次更新目前仍仅向特斯拉员工开放,此前Teslascope 预计新的 FSD Beta很快就 陈晓霞 会在加拿大推出。 852-25321956 xx.chen@firstshanghai.com.hk 欧洲、美国 Model Y 价格上涨 特斯拉欧洲计划于3 月 22 日在欧洲国家提高 Model Y 的价格,价格上涨约 2,0 行业 汽车 ...