Group 1: Social Financing Overview - In October 2024, the incremental social financing scale was 1,395.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 448.3 billion yuan compared to the same period last year[3] - The total social financing stock reached 403.45 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 7.8%, slightly down from the previous value of 8%[3] - New credit under the social financing framework was 298.8 billion yuan in October, a year-on-year decrease of 184.9 billion yuan, but an improvement from a decrease of 562.7 billion yuan in the previous month[3] Group 2: Credit Demand and Structure - Resident loans increased by 160 billion yuan in October, a year-on-year increase of 194.6 billion yuan, marking the first year-on-year increase since February[4] - Corporate loans saw a new addition of 130 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 386.3 billion yuan, indicating a continued weak demand for corporate financing[4] - Government bond issuance in October was 1,049.6 billion yuan, a significant year-on-year decrease of 514.2 billion yuan, reflecting a slowdown in special bond issuance[5] Group 3: Economic Indicators and Outlook - The M1 and M2 monetary aggregates showed signs of recovery, with year-on-year growth rates of -6.1% and 7.5%, respectively, leading to a narrowing of the M1-M2 gap to -13.6%[6] - The real estate market is showing signs of stabilization due to effective policies, with a notable recovery in resident loans and corporate bond issuance[7] - Risks remain, including the potential for economic recovery to fall short of expectations and the risk of tighter overseas monetary policies[7]

10 月通胀有两大特征： ( 1 ) 台风等偶发因素影响明显减弱，CPI 中的食品、文旅 宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 报告发布日期 2024 年 11 月 12 日 台风冲击消退,核心通胀企稳 10目诵 胀数据点评 研究结论 事件: 2024 年 11 月 9 日统计局公布最新通胀数据, 2024 年 10 月 CPI 同比 0.3%，前值 0.4%，环比-0.3%，前值 0%；PPI 同比-2.9%，前值-2.8%，环比-0.1%，前值-0.6%。 ● 10 月恶劣天气影响逐渐减弱，食品 CPI 同比增幅收窄。10 月食品项 CPI 同、环比 分别为 2.9%、-1.2%（前值为 3.3%、0.8%，后同 ）。此前价格受气候影响明显的 鲜菜和鲜果同比增速分别为 21.6%、4.7%（22.9%、6.7% ），均有收窄；猪肉同比 增长 14.2% ( 16.2% ) 。 ● 文旅价格企稳支撑核心 CPI 小幅回升。非食品项和核心 CPI 同比增速延续前期下 滑，分别为-0.3%、0.2%（-0.2%、0.1%）： ( 1 ) 能源价格持续拖累消费品 CPI, 其他消费品整体上维持稳定。据统计局，能源价格下降 5. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Buy** rating for the company with a target price of **19.2 CNY** [3] Core Views - **Q3 Performance**: The company's Q3 revenue was **34.237 billion CNY**, a **19.8% YoY decline** and a **13.8% QoQ decline**. Net profit attributable to shareholders was **748 million CNY**, down **66.4% YoY** and **55.3% QoQ**. The decline was mainly due to reduced investment income and increased R&D expenses, which rose **12.8% QoQ** to **1.544 billion CNY** [1] - **Gross Margin Improvement**: Q3 gross margin improved to **15.7%**, up **2.5 percentage points QoQ**, despite a **1.3 percentage point YoY decline** after adjustments. The adjusted gross margin for the first three quarters was **14.4%**, down **2.2 percentage points YoY** [1] - **Investment Income Pressure**: Q3 investment income was **-268 million CNY**, a **672 million CNY YoY decline** and **441 million CNY QoQ decline**. The weak performance of joint ventures and Avita Technology contributed to this pressure [1] - **Avita's Potential**: Avita's new model, the Avita 07, received **25,386 pre-orders** within 17 days of launch, with a peak of **3,508 orders in a single day**. The company expects Avita's sales to recover in Q4, driven by new model launches [1] - **Self-owned Brand Performance**: Q3 self-owned brand sales were **338,900 units**, down **17.4% YoY**, but new energy vehicle sales increased **13.7% YoY** to **148,600 units**. The company expects Q4 sales to improve with new model launches [1] Financial Forecasts - **2024-2026 Profit Forecast**: The report revised down the net profit forecast for 2024-2026 to **5.948 billion CNY**, **8.269 billion CNY**, and **10.126 billion CNY**, respectively, from previous estimates of **7.869 billion CNY**, **10.302 billion CNY**, and **11.673 billion CNY** [2] - **Revenue Growth**: Revenue is expected to grow **15.5% YoY** in 2024, **11.1% YoY** in 2025, and **9.6% YoY** in 2026, reaching **174.823 billion CNY**, **194.292 billion CNY**, and **213.009 billion CNY**, respectively [2] - **Profit Margins**: Gross margin is forecasted to be **16.1%** in 2024, **17.3%** in 2025, and **18.0%** in 2026, while net margin is expected to be **3.4%**, **4.3%**, and **4.8%**, respectively [2] Valuation and Peer Comparison - **Valuation**: The company's 2024E PE ratio is **25.9x**, compared to an industry average of **32x**. The target price is set at **19.2 CNY**, implying a **23.5% upside** from the current price of **15.55 CNY** [3][8] - **Peer Comparison**: The company's 2024E PE ratio is lower than peers like **Guangzhou Automobile Group (40.31x)** and **Jianghuai Automobile (231.82x)**, but higher than **Great Wall Motor (19.11x)** and **SAIC Motor (13.84x)** [8] Key Drivers for Future Growth - **Avita's New Models**: The launch of Avita 07 and upcoming Avita 11/12 models are expected to drive sales recovery in Q4 [1] - **Self-owned Brand Expansion**: New models like Deep Blue L07, S05, and Changan Qiyuan E07 are expected to boost sales and profitability in Q4 [1] - **R&D Investment**: Increased R&D expenses indicate the company's focus on innovation and new product development, which could drive long-term growth [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the securities industry [3]. Core Insights - The securities sector saw a significant increase this week, with the broker index rising by 15.04%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index which rose by 5.50% [1][24]. - The brokerage market remains robust, with an average daily trading volume of 23,987.21 billion yuan, a 14.86% increase from the previous week [1][34]. - The number of new accounts opened in October surged to 6.85 million, significantly higher than the average monthly openings of 1.5 million in the first nine months of the year [1]. - The increase in local government debt limits is expected to add 1 trillion yuan in resources for local debt resolution, enhancing economic development and public welfare [1]. - The merger and acquisition activity in the industry continues, with Western Securities acquiring a controlling stake in Guorong Securities for approximately 3.32 yuan per share, totaling about 3.825 billion yuan [1]. Summary by Sections Market Data - The average daily trading volume for stocks reached 23,987.21 billion yuan, with the Shanghai Stock Exchange's average turnover rate at 1.81% and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange at 4.87% [1][34]. - The margin trading balance stood at 17,870.06 billion yuan, reflecting a 4.57% increase week-on-week [1][34]. - The total amount of stock underwriting this week was 5.671 billion yuan, with IPO underwriting accounting for 968 million yuan [1][34]. Investment Recommendations - The securities industry still holds investment value, with the broker index's price-to-book ratio at 1.72, indicating a recovery to the historical median [2]. - The report suggests focusing on leading brokers such as Huatai Securities, China Galaxy, CITIC Securities, CICC, and招商证券 [2].

Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the basic chemical industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The market remains cautious towards the petrochemical industry due to unclear oil price expectations following Trump's election victory. The shift in market sentiment has led to a slight decrease in risk appetite, favoring leading companies with strong fundamentals and low correlation to oil prices. The importance of food security has increased amid global instability, making the demand in the agriculture and food supply chain more rigid, with expectations for sustained prosperity and upward elasticity from supply-side optimization [5][26] Summary by Relevant Sections Oil and Chemical Product Price Information - As of November 1, 2024, U.S. crude oil commercial inventory was 427.7 million barrels, with a weekly increase of 2.1 million barrels. Gasoline inventory was 211.3 million barrels, up by 400,000 barrels, while distillate inventory rose by 2.9 million barrels to 115.8 million barrels. Propane inventory decreased by 1.02 million barrels to 100.509 million barrels. U.S. crude oil production remained stable at 13.5 million barrels per day, an increase of 300,000 barrels per day year-on-year [2][27] Price Changes - Among the 188 monitored chemical products, the top three price increases this week were liquid chlorine (up 158.2%), vitamin E (up 9.0%), and R134a (up 8.6%). The top three price decreases were butadiene (down 5.7%), scallion oil (down 4.9%), and acetic acid (down 4.2%). Monthly, liquid chlorine saw a staggering increase of 939.3%, while vitamin A dropped by 30.2% [3][28][29] Price Spread Changes - This week, the top three increases in price spreads were for BDO (up 48.9%), carbon black (up 23.6%), and n-butanol (up 21.0%). The largest decreases were for butyl acrylate (down 80.0%), R410a (down 33.3%), and propylene (down 24.8%). Monthly, the largest increase was for styrene (up 827.3%), while R410a saw a significant drop of 500.0% [4][30][29] Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include: - Wanhua Chemical: Core product MDI shows recent profit improvement, with new petrochemical and new material projects set to launch [5] - Huamao Technology: A leader in specialty polyether, has entered a growth phase again [5] - Jinhui Industrial: A leader in maltol and sucralose, with signs of marginal improvement in product demand [5] - Yuntianhua: A leading company in the domestic phosphate chemical industry, with sustainable phosphate rock market conditions and potential for increased dividends [5]

- The report does not contain any specific quantitative models or factor construction details related to quantitative finance[5][7][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the basic chemical industry in China [1] Core Insights - BASF's new "Winning Ways" strategy emphasizes increasing investments in China while shifting focus from providing customized services to assisting clients in achieving green transformation [2][21] - The strategic adjustment is driven by three main factors: China's role as the largest growth driver in the global chemical industry, the weakened competitiveness of European chemical firms due to high energy costs, and the lower green and low-carbon costs in China providing opportunities for excess returns [2][22] - Domestic companies are encouraged to explore growth in sectors like nutrition, coatings, and specialty materials while addressing green and low-carbon challenges, which will soon become significant supply chain and trade barriers [2][22] Summary by Sections BASF's "Winning Ways" Strategy - The new strategy, introduced by the new CEO, continues to prioritize investment in China, with significant projects like the BASF Zhanjiang integrated production base and the Yangzi-BASF ethylene project, with total investments exceeding 60 billion RMB [23][24] - The core value proposition has shifted from focusing on customer service to facilitating clients' green transitions, aligning with global trends towards sustainability [24][40] Core Business Structure Adjustment and Green Arbitrage - BASF's structural adjustment is a response to declining profitability in other regions, with a focus on leveraging China's competitive advantages in the chemical sector [26][27] - The report highlights that BASF's investment in China is not merely incremental but a profound structural adjustment aimed at enhancing financial stability [26][28] Investment Recommendations - The report identifies leading domestic chemical companies that are well-positioned to meet green and low-carbon requirements, such as Wanhua Chemical and Satellite Chemical, which are actively investing in green electricity and utilizing hydrogen resources [3][48]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry in China [1]. Core Viewpoints - The industry shows significant differences between hospital and non-hospital sectors, with innovation driving incremental growth. Overall revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 remained flat year-on-year at -0.1%, while profit margins showed pressure with net profit declining by 6.0% and adjusted net profit down by 3.2% [2][10]. - The report highlights a notable decline in profits in Q3 2024 compared to H1 2024, primarily due to weakened consumer spending outside hospitals and a decrease in respiratory diseases [10]. - The report emphasizes the strong demand within hospitals, contrasting with weaker consumer willingness outside hospitals. Revenue growth rates for retail, chemical drugs, medical devices, and pharmaceutical distribution in the first three quarters of 2024 were 6.9%, 3.0%, 2.0%, and 1.2%, respectively, significantly exceeding the industry average [10][12]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry has experienced a return to normal growth, with rigid demand in hospitals and structural changes driven by innovation. The report suggests that the industry is at a favorable point for investment due to low inventory levels and valuation bottoms [9][21]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the revenue growth for the entire industry was flat at -0.1%, while net profit and adjusted net profit saw declines of 6.0% and 3.2%, respectively. The report notes that the profit margin decline in Q3 was more pronounced than in H1 [10][12]. - Specific sectors such as chemical pharmaceuticals and pharmaceutical distribution outperformed the industry average in terms of adjusted net profit growth, with increases of 26.4% and 0.9%, respectively [12][14]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on hospital products (traditional Chinese medicine, chemical drugs, and medical devices) with stable performance, recommending stocks such as Heng Rui Medicine, Ke Lun Pharmaceutical, and Mai Rui Medical for investment [21]. - It also highlights opportunities in the innovative drug supply chain and certain medical devices with overseas potential, recommending stocks like Ao Sai Kang and Yi Fang Biotechnology [21]. Market Positioning - As of the end of Q3 2024, the proportion of pharmaceutical holdings in public fund products was approximately 9.7%, a decrease from the previous quarter, indicating a low allocation relative to the total market capitalization of the pharmaceutical sector [15][16]. - The report indicates that the industry has reached a historical low in terms of valuation, suggesting a potential for recovery and growth in the coming quarters [16][21].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the real estate sector, indicating a "look good" investment rating [2]. Core Insights - The real estate sector index outperformed the CSI 300 index by 6.0% during the 45th week, with a weekly increase of 6.8% [12][2]. - New housing sales in 44 major cities decreased by 33.3% compared to the previous week, while second-hand housing sales increased by 0.6% [17][3]. - The report highlights various local policies aimed at stimulating the real estate market, including adjustments to housing fund policies and mortgage rates in several cities [15][16]. Market Performance Overview - The real estate sector index closed at 2569.08, with a weekly increase of 6.8%, while the CSI 300 index closed at 4104.05, up 5.5% [12][13]. - The report notes that the average premium rate for land transactions in 36 major cities rose to 8.2%, an increase of 6.4% from the previous week [25][22]. Policy Developments - The central bank is actively supporting the acquisition of existing residential properties for affordable housing and revitalizing idle land [15][16]. - Local governments are implementing various measures, such as adjusting housing loan policies and increasing subsidies for home purchases [15][16]. Sales and Inventory Data - As of the 45th week, the inventory of new homes in 18 major cities was 823,000 units, a decrease of 6,000 units from the previous week, with a sales-to-inventory ratio of 19.3 months [17][20]. - The report indicates that first-tier cities saw a significant decrease in new home sales by 39.1% compared to the previous week [17][20]. Land Market Activity - The land market activity decreased, with 36 major cities collectively selling 26 plots of land, a reduction from the previous week [22][25]. - The total land transfer revenue for these cities was 26.597 billion yuan, down 100.339 billion yuan from the previous week [22][25]. Company Announcements - Several companies, including Lanhua Ketech and Vanke A, announced share buybacks and guarantees related to their subsidiaries [27][28].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the textile and apparel industry in China [2]. Core Insights - The textile and apparel industry index (CITIC) rose by 5.91%, performing between the Shanghai Composite Index (up 5.5%) and the ChiNext Index (up 9.32%) [5][8]. - Key stocks such as Shanghai Jahwa, Li Ning, and Hailan Home achieved significant returns [5]. - The report highlights a recovery in consumer spending, driven by policy expectations aimed at boosting domestic demand [14]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The textile and apparel industry index saw a 5.91% increase, with the textile manufacturing sector up 5.29% and the branded apparel sector up 6.46% [5][8]. - The report notes that small-cap stocks are performing actively while awaiting improvements in the domestic demand sector [4]. Important Company Information - Huahan Co. repurchased 1.9608 million shares, accounting for 2.41% of its total share capital [10]. - Biyinlefen purchased a financial product from CITIC Securities for RMB 150 million, with an expected annual return of 1.75% to 2.10% [11]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include Weixing Co. (buy), Proya (buy), Shenzhou International (buy), and Bosideng (buy) [12][14]. - The report emphasizes the potential for recovery in the consumer sector, particularly for brands with resilient fundamentals and attractive valuations [14].