金融工程 | 专题报告 时点风险模型 ——因子选股系列之一一三 杨怡玲 yangyiling@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860523040002 研究结论 研究动机 2024 年 9 月科技板块因政策变化引发的超预期反弹，暴露了传统指数增强模型在应对突 发性外部风险时的重大缺陷。此类事件驱动型风险具有瞬时性、高波动特征，而传统 Barra 类风险模型依赖缓慢衰减的风格因子进行风控，难以及时捕捉突发风险的短期集聚 效应，导致组合在极端市场环境下出现历史性回撤。基于此，本研究提出时点风险因 子，旨在解决突变型风险对组合的冲击问题。 时点风险因子 针对外部风险事件的突发性，我们创新性提出"时点风险因子"来刻画这种时点的风 险，风险具有集聚性，因此当天高风险的来源在未来短期内仍然是市场的高风险来源， 因此可以依靠这种风险的集聚效应去控制组合的时点风险从而起到对外部事件降波的作 用。 我们通过监测中证全指指数的振幅与成交额突破阈值（5 日均值+1 倍标准差）的突变时 点，以个股当日涨跌幅构建风险因子。当日个股涨跌幅是当日的隐式风险共同作用"定 价"后的结果，这一设计本质上是将政策冲击、流动性突 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) with a target price of 74.29 CNY [1][6] Core Views - The company's performance has been impacted by market conditions and asset impairment, with a reported revenue of 182 billion CNY for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 13 billion CNY, down 22.5% year-on-year. For Q1 2025, revenue was 430.68 billion CNY, a decline of 6.7% year-on-year, with a net profit of 30.8 billion CNY, down 25.9% year-on-year. The decline is primarily due to significant price drops in key products such as pure MDI, TDI, and polyether, while raw material prices like pure benzene and LPG fell less sharply, leading to an overall decrease in gross margin [5][10] Financial Performance Summary - The company reported the following financial metrics: - 2023 Revenue: 175.36 billion CNY, with a growth of 5.9% - 2024 Revenue: 182.07 billion CNY, with a growth of 3.8% - 2025 Estimated Revenue: 210.05 billion CNY, with a growth of 15.4% - 2024 Net Profit: 13.03 billion CNY, down 22.5% - 2025 Estimated Net Profit: 13.73 billion CNY, with a growth of 5.3% - 2025 Estimated EPS: 4.37 CNY [8][6] Market Conditions and Strategic Insights - The company is experiencing a decline in capital expenditure intensity, with fixed assets increasing by 20 billion CNY in 2024 and a further increase of 18.6 billion CNY in Q1 2025, primarily from the Fujian base and Penglai project. The second phase of the ethylene project is expected to impact profits mainly in Q2 [10] - The company faces pressure from trade disputes, particularly from changes in US tariffs affecting global economic uncertainty and raw material prices. Despite having long-term strategic partners in the Middle East, short-term cost pressures are anticipated [10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company has been upgraded to "Buy" due to the significant recovery in the vitamin industry and the company's strong performance as a leading enterprise in the sector [2][5]. Core Views - The company reported a substantial increase in performance, with a revenue of 21.61 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 42.95%. The net profit attributable to the parent company reached 5.87 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 117.01%. This growth is primarily driven by the recovery in the vitamin A and E markets, which led to a notable increase in product prices and an improvement in the gross margin of the nutrition products segment to 43.18%, up 13.27 percentage points from 2023 [8]. - The vitamin production in China has been steadily increasing, accounting for approximately 86% of the total output by 2024. The decline in production from overseas companies due to various factors has contributed to the recovery of the vitamin industry, benefiting leading companies like this one [8]. - The company is pursuing new projects in collaboration with upstream petrochemical companies, such as the methionine project and nylon new materials project, which are expected to drive sustainable growth [8]. Financial Information Summary - Revenue (million yuan): 2023A: 15,117; 2024A: 21,610; 2025E: 23,641; 2026E: 24,826; 2027E: 26,496 [4] - Year-on-year growth in revenue: 2024A: 43.0%; 2025E: 9.4%; 2026E: 5.0%; 2027E: 6.7% [4] - Net profit attributable to the parent company (million yuan): 2023A: 2,704; 2024A: 5,869; 2025E: 6,271; 2026E: 6,295; 2027E: 6,957 [4] - Earnings per share (yuan): 2023A: 0.88; 2024A: 1.91; 2025E: 2.04; 2026E: 2.05; 2027E: 2.26 [4] - Target price set at 28.56 yuan based on a 14x average PE ratio of comparable companies [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][4][9]. Core Views - The company is expected to continue benefiting from national subsidy policies, leading to a stable double-digit growth trend in revenue [8]. - The revenue forecast for 2025-2027 is adjusted to 1,259.14 billion, 1,332.35 billion, and 1,389.11 billion yuan respectively, with net profit estimates of 47.8 billion, 50.4 billion, and 52.7 billion yuan [2][9]. - The target price for the company's stock is set at 205.93 HKD, based on a valuation of 609.4 billion yuan [2][4][9]. Financial Information - The company’s revenue for 2023 is reported at 1,084.66 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.67% [2]. - The projected revenue growth rates for the upcoming years are 6.84% in 2024, 8.66% in 2025, 5.81% in 2026, and 4.26% in 2027 [2]. - The net profit for 2023 is 24.17 billion yuan, with a significant year-on-year increase of 132.82% [2]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 7.62 yuan in 2023, increasing to 16.50 yuan by 2027 [2]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 14.7% in 2023 to 16.0% in 2025 and remain stable thereafter [2]. Segment Performance - The retail segment is projected to achieve revenue of 2,535.7 billion yuan in Q1 2025, reflecting an 11.8% growth [8]. - The logistics segment is expected to generate revenue of 463.2 billion yuan in Q1 2025, with a growth rate of 9.9% [8]. - New business initiatives are anticipated to generate 54.6 billion yuan in revenue for Q1 2025, although they are expected to incur losses [8].

分红对期指的影响 20250418 研究结论 | IH2505 | 2643.80 | 0.00 | -13.84 | -13.84 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2506 | 2633.40 | 18.38 | -24.24 | -5.86 | | IH2509 | 2599.60 | 58.73 | -58.04 | 0.69 | | IH2512 | | 58.73 | | | 金融工程 | 动态跟踪 沪深 300 股指期货: | | 收盘价 | 分红点数 | 实际价差 | 含分红价差 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2505 | 2643.80 | 0.00 | -13.84 | -13.84 | | IH2506 | 2633.40 | 18.38 | -24.24 | -5.86 | | IH2509 | 2599.60 | 58.73 | -58.04 | 0.69 | | IH2512 | | 58.73 | | | | 沪深 300 股指期货: | | | | | | | 收盘价 | 分红点数 | 实际 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][9]. Core Views - The company is expected to continue benefiting from national subsidy policies, leading to a stable double-digit growth trend in revenue [8]. - The revenue forecast for 2025-2027 is adjusted to 1,259.14 billion, 1,332.35 billion, and 1,389.12 billion yuan respectively, with net profit estimates of 47.8 billion, 50.4 billion, and 52.7 billion yuan [2][9]. - The target price is set at 205.93 HKD per share, based on a valuation of 609.4 billion yuan [2][9]. Financial Information - The company’s revenue for 2023 is reported at 1,084.66 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.67% [2]. - The projected revenue growth rates for the upcoming years are 6.84% in 2024, 8.66% in 2025, 5.81% in 2026, and 4.26% in 2027 [2]. - The net profit for 2023 is 24.17 billion yuan, with a significant year-on-year increase of 132.82% [2]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to rise from 7.62 yuan in 2023 to 16.50 yuan by 2027 [2]. Segment Performance - The retail segment is projected to achieve revenue of 2,535.7 billion yuan in Q1 2025, reflecting an 11.8% increase [8]. - The logistics segment is expected to generate revenue of 463.2 billion yuan in Q1 2025, with a growth rate of 9.9% [8]. - New business initiatives are anticipated to generate 54.6 billion yuan in revenue for Q1 2025, although they are expected to incur losses [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba Group [3][10]. Core Views - Alibaba Cloud's ecosystem is continuously improving, with accelerated deployment of AI agents. Revenue forecasts for FY2025-2027 are projected at 10027, 10542, and 11445 million yuan, respectively, with adjusted net profits of 1571, 1638, and 1809 million yuan [2][10]. - The company's market capitalization is estimated at 27957 million yuan, corresponding to a per-share value of 157.65 HKD [8][21]. Financial Performance Summary - For FY2025, total revenue is expected to reach 1002754 million yuan, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 6.54%. The adjusted net profit is projected at 132049 million yuan, with a significant increase of 65.60% compared to the previous year [9][11]. - The report highlights a steady increase in operating profit, with a forecast of 133751 million yuan for FY2025, representing an 18.00% growth [9][11]. Business Segment Analysis - **Taobao Group**: Revenue is expected to be 446799 million yuan in FY2025, with a year-over-year growth of 2.74% [11][21]. - **Cloud Intelligence Group**: Anticipated to experience a high growth cycle due to increased domestic AI computing demand, with a projected market value of 8500 million yuan [13][21]. - **International Digital Commerce Group**: Currently in an expansion phase, projected to have a market value of 1691 million yuan based on a PS valuation method [15][21]. - **Cainiao Group**: Expected to achieve a market value of 121 billion yuan, reflecting a stable profitability trend [17][21]. - **Local Life Group**: Valued at 1510 million yuan, utilizing a PS valuation method due to its current lack of profitability [19][21]. - **Entertainment Group**: Estimated market value of 449 million yuan, based on a PS valuation of its subsidiaries [20][21].

营收稳健增长，扣非利润持续高增 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 我们预测公司 25-27 年归母净利润分别为 53/69/89 亿元（原 25-26 年预测分别为 55/69 亿元，主要上调营收预测，下调毛利率预测），根据可比公司 25 年 25 倍 PE 估值，对应目标价为 26.50 元，维持给予买入评级。 风险提示 ⚫ 大客户手机出货量不及预期、公司新产品良率爬坡不及预期。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 54,491 | 69,897 | 93,978 | 117,906 | 143,201 | | 同比增长 (%) | 16.7% | 28.3% | 34.5% | 25.5% | 21.5% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 3,277 | 3,871 | 5,759 | 7,526 | 9,655 | | 同比增长 (%) | 10.5% | 18.1% | 48.8% | 30.7% | 28.3% | | 归属母公司 ...

兴发集团 600141.SH 公司研究 | 年报点评 | 矿端持续高景气，业绩有望持续改善 | | --- | 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 目前公司部分板块仍旧周期性景气承压，但同时磷矿及特种化学品板块仍有不错增 长，故适当调整各板块主要产品价格、销量、毛利率，我们预测 25-27 年公司归母净 利润分别为 19.43、21.97 和 23.89 亿元（原 25-26 年预测为 20.84 和 22.72 亿元）， 按照可比公司 25 年 13 倍 PE，给予目标价 22.88 元并维持买入评级。 风险提示：产品和原材料价格波动，新产能投产及销售不及预期，下游需求不及预期 | | 买入 （维持） | | --- | --- | | 股价（2025年04月18日） | 20.05 元 | | 目标价格 | 22.88 元 | | 52 周最高价/最低价 | 25.87/16.5 元 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（万股） | 110,326/110,326 | | A 股市值（百万元） | 22,120 | | 国家/地区 | 中国 | | 行业 | 基础化工 | | 报告发布日期 | 2025 年 04 ...

消费刺激政策落地，居民消费景气度明显 回升 ——2025 年 3 月社零数据点评 核心观点 事件：国家统计局于 4 月 16 日发布 2025 年 3 月社会消费品零售总额数据，2025 年 3 月社会消费品零售总额 40940 亿元，同比增长 5.9%，其中除汽车外的消费品零售额 36610 亿元，增长 6.0%。 风险提示 宏观经济波动；消费恢复不及预期；行业竞争加剧 传媒行业 行业研究 | 深度报告 | | 看好（维持） | | --- | --- | | 国家/地区 | 中国 | | 行业 | 传媒行业 | | 报告发布日期 | 2025 年 04 月 18 日 | | 项雯倩 | 021-63325888*6128 xiangwenqian@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书编号：S0860517020003 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BQP120 | | 李雨琪 | 021-63325888-3023 | | | liyuqi@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860520050001 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BQ ...