Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the company, with a target price of 10.88 yuan, down 16% from the previous target of 12.90 yuan [3] Core Views - The company's performance is in line with expectations, with recovery in Wuzhen and Gubei, but pressure remains on surrounding tourist flows, and the hotel business continues to reduce losses [2] - The report downgrades the EPS forecasts for 2024-2026 to 0.38 yuan (-16%), 0.44 yuan (-21%), and 0.47 yuan (-24%) respectively, citing pressure from surrounding tourism and the impact of new projects ramping up [2] - Wuzhen and Gubei are still in the recovery phase, with Wuzhen's revenue increasing by 2.2% YoY to 859 million yuan in H1 2024, while Gubei's revenue decreased by 21.72% YoY to 275 million yuan [2] - The hotel business continues to reduce losses, with Shanshui Hotel narrowing its losses to 17 million yuan, mainly due to the closure of some loss-making stores and scale reduction [2] Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the company achieved revenue of 4.35 billion yuan, up 4.12% YoY, with net profit attributable to the parent company of 73 million yuan, down 31.84% YoY [2] - In Q2 2024, revenue was 2.428 billion yuan, down 3.66% YoY, with gross profit of 652 million yuan, down 1.9% YoY, and a gross margin of 26.85%, up 0.48 percentage points YoY [2] - The company's net profit margin in Q2 2024 was 4.18%, down 0.23 percentage points YoY [2] Business Segments - Wuzhen's revenue in H1 2024 was 859 million yuan, up 2.2% YoY, with 3.83 million visitors, up 7.9% YoY, and an average ticket price of 224.43 yuan, down 5.26% YoY [2] - Gubei Water Town's revenue in H1 2024 was 275 million yuan, down 21.72% YoY, with 600,000 visitors, down 11.5% YoY, and an average ticket price of 458 yuan, down 11.55% YoY [2] - CYTS Tours' revenue in H1 2024 was 781 million yuan, down 12.71% YoY, with a slight profit [2] - Shanshui Hotel's revenue in H1 2024 was 150 million yuan, down 24.41% YoY, with a net loss of 17 million yuan, continuing to narrow losses YoY [2] - Chuangge Technology's revenue in H1 2024 was 1.647 billion yuan, down 6% YoY, with a net profit of 24 million yuan, up 3% YoY [2] Market and Valuation - The company's current market price is 9.26 yuan, with a 52-week price range of 9.12-12.85 yuan [4] - The company's total market capitalization is 6.703 billion yuan, with a total share capital of 724 million shares, all of which are tradable A-shares [4] - The company's PE ratio for 2024E is 24.62x, and for 2025E is 21.28x [3] Industry Comparison - The average PE ratio for comparable companies in the tourism industry is 30.62x for 2024E, 26.22x for 2025E, and 22.29x for 2026E [9]

股 票 研 究 行 业 策 略 证 券 研 究 报 告 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.09.05 医药板块 2024 中报总结暨秋季投资策略 有望逐步温和复苏 [Table_Industry] 医药 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 上次评级: 增持 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|-----------------------------------|-------|-------|-------|--------|-----------------------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | [table_Authors] 丁丹 ( 分析师 ) | | | | 谈嘉程 | ( 分析师 | ) | | | | | | | | | 0755-23976735 | | | | | ...

Investment Rating - Maintains an "Overweight" rating with a target price of 72.58 RMB [3][4] - The target price corresponds to a 43x PE ratio for 2024 [3] Core Views - Revenue and profits continue to grow rapidly, with overseas revenue experiencing explosive growth [3] - The company's management and R&D expenses decreased by 22.91% and 3.84% respectively in H1 2024, while sales expenses increased slightly by 2.66%, leading to an overall expense ratio drop of 4.04 percentage points to 5.52% [3] - Overseas revenue in H1 2024 reached 12.264 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 171.54%, accounting for 29.16% of total revenue, up 10.95 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The high demand for AI computing power is expected to drive the company's business beyond expectations [3] Financial Performance - H1 2024 revenue reached 42.064 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 68.71%, with net profit attributable to the parent company reaching 597 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 90.56% [3] - The company's EPS for 2024-2026 is forecasted to be 1.70, 1.98, and 2.26 RMB, with year-on-year growth rates of 40%, 17%, and 14% respectively [3] - The company's market share in the server industry remains second globally and first in China, according to Gartner and IDC data for Q1 2024 [3] Product and Technology Development - The company has launched the EPAI enterprise large model development platform, supporting over 20 heterogeneous acceleration computing chips, reducing trial-and-error costs for enterprises in large model application development [3] - The company has also released the "Yuan 2.0-M32" open-source large model to help enterprises efficiently implement AI applications [3] - Multiple stable and efficient AI server products have been launched, including an AI general-purpose server developed in collaboration with Intel, which is the first in the industry to run a trillion-parameter large model on a general-purpose processor [3] Market and Industry Position - The company is a global leader in the server industry, with a strong position in both domestic and international markets [3] - The company's market share in the server industry remains second globally and first in China, according to Gartner and IDC data for Q1 2024 [3] Financial Forecasts - Revenue for 2024-2026 is forecasted to be 83.616 billion, 95.531 billion, and 106.849 billion RMB, with year-on-year growth rates of 26.9%, 14.3%, and 11.8% respectively [9] - Net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024-2026 is forecasted to be 2.497 billion, 2.917 billion, and 3.322 billion RMB, with year-on-year growth rates of 40.0%, 16.9%, and 13.9% respectively [9] - The company's ROE for 2024-2026 is forecasted to be 12.3%, 12.7%, and 12.8% respectively [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating and lowers the target price to 15.15 yuan from the previous 19.18 yuan [2][6]. Core Views - The company's mid-year performance meets expectations, with a revenue of 31.3 billion yuan in Q2 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10.96%, and a net profit of 605 million yuan, up 26.17% year-on-year [2]. - The second quarter's performance benefited from the "one price" model adopted by leading companies in the filament industry, leading to improved gross margins [2]. - The report anticipates a recovery in demand driven by winter restocking needs, despite a slowdown in production due to high temperatures affecting demand in Q3 2024 [2]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2024 is projected at 62.07 billion yuan, with a net profit forecast of 1.54 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 41.7% [3]. - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are adjusted to 1.01 yuan, 1.27 yuan, and 1.52 yuan respectively [2][3]. - The company reported a net profit margin of 1.96% in Q2 2024, with a gross margin of 6.11%, both showing slight improvements year-on-year [2]. Market and Industry Outlook - The domestic filament capacity is expected to reach 42.86 million tons by the end of 2023, with a year-on-year increase of 9.98% [2]. - The report highlights a trend of increasing industry concentration, with major players strengthening their market positions as smaller companies exit the market [2]. - The anticipated new capacity additions for the industry in 2024 and 2025 are 2.65 million tons and 2.85 million tons respectively, indicating a slowdown in capacity growth compared to previous years [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - In Q2 2024, the company's net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 12.71% year-on-year to 4.74 billion yuan, with a significant rise in non-recurring net profit by 106.83% to 6.94 billion yuan, indicating strong performance [3][23]. - The company benefits from rising prices of its main products, which has led to improved profitability and a significant increase in gross profit [4][19]. - The company has adjusted its earnings forecast for 2024-2026, expecting EPS of 1.22, 1.56, and 1.66 yuan respectively, and has set a target price of 15.86 yuan [4][11]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the company achieved revenue of 18.775 billion yuan, a decrease of 17.77% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 800 million yuan, an increase of 16.35% [16]. - The company produced a total of 185,200 tons of non-ferrous metals in H1 2024, with tin production at 45,200 tons, copper at 70,300 tons, and zinc at 68,800 tons, all showing year-on-year growth [30]. Product Pricing and Market Conditions - The average prices for tin, copper, and zinc in H1 2024 were 24,030, 7,500, and 2,200 yuan per ton, respectively, reflecting increases of 15.5%, 9.97%, and 0.99% year-on-year [4][17]. - The supply of tin remains tight, with demand recovering alongside the semiconductor cycle, providing strong support for tin prices [4][28]. Strategic Partnerships and Industry Position - The company has established strategic partnerships, including a collaboration with Xiamen Tungsten Co., focusing on resource development and technological cooperation [28][30]. - The company holds a leading position in the tin industry, with the largest production base and market share globally, benefiting from unique policy advantages in raw material procurement [28][30].

- The PEM-VC industry rotation model integrates "total" and "marginal" thinking to select industries with high sentiment, exceeding expectations, and momentum improvement while leveraging valuation trends and crowding levels to mitigate index downside risks [16] - The PEM-VC composite model achieved an annualized return of 30.72% and an annualized excess return of 26.64% from January 2011 to April 2024 [16] - In August 2024, the composite model's long portfolio included industries such as non-ferrous metals, electronics, machinery, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery, and pharmaceuticals, generating excess returns relative to the market benchmark of 0.56%, 0.98%, 1.14%, and 1.49% respectively [16] - The September 2024 long portfolio of the composite model includes industries such as electric power equipment and new energy, automotive, petroleum and petrochemicals, non-ferrous metals, and pharmaceuticals [18] - The September 2024 marginal changes in the industry sentiment model show top-ranking industries as non-bank finance, banking, media, electric power equipment and new energy, and utilities, with significant sentiment improvement in real estate, banking, and electric power equipment and new energy [19] - The September 2024 performance exceeding expectations model ranks industries such as retail, petroleum and petrochemicals, electric power equipment and new energy, light manufacturing, and automotive at the top, with notable improvements in petroleum and petrochemicals, electric power equipment and new energy, and automotive [19] - The September 2024 industry momentum model ranks industries such as steel, utilities, non-ferrous metals, electronics, and defense at the top, with significant momentum improvement in defense, transportation, and consumer services [19] - The PEM-VC composite model's excess return relative to the market benchmark in 2024 is 14.80% [16] - The August 2024 excess return of the PEM-VC composite model's long portfolio relative to the market benchmark is 5.75% [16]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for Postal Savings Bank of China (1658) [2][4]. Core Views - The 2024 interim performance of Postal Savings Bank aligns with expectations, with revenue and net profit growth showing marginal decline. Loan and deposit growth outpaces peers, and asset quality remains stable, though future risk exposure should be monitored [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue growth for Q2 2024 decreased by 3.1 percentage points compared to Q1, resulting in a year-on-year decline of 1.6%. Net interest income grew by 0.6%, but the growth rate declined by 2.6 percentage points from Q1 due to slower expansion and narrowing interest margins. Non-interest income also saw a decline of 8.1% year-on-year [4]. - The cost-to-income ratio increased by 2.6 percentage points year-on-year due to higher expenses from deposit acquisition through agency networks. Net profit growth for Q2 2024 fell by 0.6 percentage points to -1.7% compared to Q1, influenced by declining revenue growth and rising costs [4]. Loan and Deposit Growth - As of the end of Q2 2024, loans increased by 10.2% year-on-year, maintaining double-digit growth, which is faster than total asset growth. Corporate loans rose by 15%, while personal loans also showed steady growth. Deposits grew by 11.8% year-on-year, reflecting a solid increase [4]. Asset Quality - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio stood at 0.84% as of June, unchanged from March, with a provision coverage ratio of 325.6%, slightly down by 1.3 percentage points. The core asset quality indicators remain superior to comparable peers [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][14]. Core Views - The company's public REITs listing in August has led to an increase in the 2024 EPS forecast to 0.93 (+0.65), while the 2025-2026 EPS estimates have been adjusted downwards to 0.27 (-0.09) and 0.30 (-0.18) respectively. The target price has been lowered to 8.37 yuan, which is above the industry average PE of 31x for 2025 [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - The company's H1 2024 revenue was 15.173 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.17%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 274 million yuan, down 17.58% year-on-year. The Q2 2024 revenue was 6.344 billion yuan, a decline of 7.40%, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was 82 million yuan, down 34.12% year-on-year [2][3]. - Revenue performance across various retail formats showed weakness, with department stores, shopping centers, supermarkets, and convenience stores experiencing declines, while the outlet format remained stable [2]. - The company is actively pursuing asset securitization and has successfully launched public REITs, with plans to continue exploring various development models focusing on light asset strategies in key urban areas [2][3]. Financial Data Overview - The company's projected revenues for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E are 29.744 billion yuan, 30.438 billion yuan, and 31.081 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a slight decline in 2024E and modest growth thereafter [3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rebound significantly in 2024E to 1.668 billion yuan, followed by a decrease in 2025E to 485 million yuan and a slight increase to 527 million yuan in 2026E [3]. - The company’s current price is 7.21 yuan, with a target price of 8.37 yuan, indicating potential upside [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for leading companies in the real estate sector, specifically recommending companies like China Merchants Shekou, Poly Developments, and China New Town Development [18][22]. Core Insights - In August, the sales revenue of the top 50 real estate companies declined by 18% year-on-year, with the decline widening by 2 percentage points compared to July. The market is still in a recovery phase, and the performance of state-owned enterprises remains significantly stronger than that of private enterprises [4][10]. - The report anticipates that the traditional off-peak season is ending, and it will continue to monitor whether the "Golden September and Silver October" sales period will materialize as expected [3][4]. - The report highlights that the sales performance of state-owned enterprises showed a positive growth of 3%, while private enterprises experienced a decline of 41% [4][10]. - The report notes that the number of companies with monthly sales exceeding 10 billion yuan has decreased to four, including Poly, China Overseas, China Resources, and Vanke [4][16]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - The top 50 real estate companies recorded a total sales revenue of 165.5 billion yuan in August, which is below the average of the first seven months of the year [4][8]. - The report indicates that the sales pattern over the past two years shows a trend of stronger performance in the first half of the year compared to the second half [4][16]. Market Dynamics - The report mentions that 29 cities have released guidelines for the first batch of housing source collection, focusing on location, housing qualifications, and pricing [4][16]. - Over 50 cities have expressed support for state-owned enterprises to collect housing stock, with specific requirements outlined for the types of properties being sought [4][16]. Recommendations - The report suggests maintaining a dual allocation strategy, recommending low-leverage leading companies while also paying attention to restructuring progress in companies like CIFI Holdings and Sunac China [4][10].

股 票 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.09.04 ——煤炭行业 2024 年中报总结 [table_Authors] 黄涛(分析师) 021-38674879 huangtao@gtjas.com 登记编号 S0880515090001 本报告导读： 2024H1 长协占比高的红利资产业绩继续大幅度跑赢行业，上半年量价齐跌带来的业 绩压力得以释放，我们判断 H2 煤价底部不破 800 元/吨，拐点预计在 9 月中旬。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 投资建议：维持行业"增持"评级。我们认为煤炭板块在 2024H1 业 绩压力已经基本释放完毕，自 2023 年年初以来煤价持续下降带动行 业 ROE 回落预计在 2024Q2-Q3 见底。未来在行业价格底部及中枢 越发清晰的带动下，煤炭行业周期性减弱，红利龙头盈利可预见性 与稳定性更强，"红利"的投资思路延续。推荐：1）优质的高盈利 稳定性与盈利可预见性的龙头：中国神华、中煤能源、陕西煤业； 2）煤电一体的新集能源；受益陕西能源；3）长协焦煤标的：淮北 矿业、恒源煤电、平煤股份、山西焦煤；4）业绩底部恢 ...