证券研究报告 | 季报点评 gszqdatemark 2024 11 15 年 月 日 皓元医药（688131.SH） 产能建设持续进行，业绩环比改善显著 公司发布 2024 年三季度报告。2024 年 1-9 月，公司实现营业收入 16.19 亿元，同比增长 17.65%；归母净利润 1.43 亿元，同比增长 21.31%； 扣非归母净利润 1.30 亿元，同比增长 21.04%。Q3 营业收入 5.64 亿 元，同比增长 13.80%，环比增长 2.33%；归母净利润 0.73 亿元，同 比增长 212.93%，环比增长 35.95%；扣非归母净利润 0.63 亿元，同 比增长 194.47%，环比增长 19.95%。 高毛利率销售高速增长驱动利润率环比快速提升。公司盈利能力环比 快速提升，主要由于毛利率较高的工具化合物销售增长强劲。2024 年 1-9 月，公司销售毛利率为 47.58%，同比下滑 0.76pct；销售净利率 为 8.70%，同比增长 0.22pct。2024 年 Q1-Q3，公司单季度销售毛利 率分别为 40.80%、49.57%、51.71%，单季度销售净利率分别为 3.28%、9. ...

证券研究报告 | 季报点评 gszqdatemark 2024 11 14 年 月 日 凯莱英（002821.SZ） 全球化布局加速完善，新签订单保持良好态势 公司发布 2024 年三季度报告。2024 年 1-9 月营业收入 41.40 亿元，同比 下降约 35%，归母净利润 7.10 亿元，扣非归母净利润 6.63 亿元。Q3 营 业收入 14.43 亿元，剔除大订单影响后同比增长 12.23%，环比上季度增 长 11.21%，归母净利润 2.11 亿元，扣非归母净利润 2.15 亿元。 毛利率总体稳定，成本管控效果显著。2024 年 1-9 月实现毛利率 43.60%， 剔除大订单影响后毛利率同比下降 1.02pct。小分子业务毛利率为 48.89%，剔除大订单影响后同比提升 1.19pct，公司通过有效的成本管控 措施，成功消化了大订单带来的资源消耗。新兴业务毛利率为 19.97%， 同比下降 12.99pct，主要受到国内市场低迷和部分业务产能爬坡期的影 响，预期随着项目交付的持续增加，尤其是海外项目的增加，毛利率将逐 步恢复。 小分子业务强劲增长，新兴业务面临压力。Q3 营业收入 14.43 亿元 ...

中矿资源（002738.SZ） 地勘服务起家，冉冉升起的多金属矿产新星 核心看点：公司以地勘服务起家，逐步打造多金属资源平台：（1）锂： 现有 418 万吨采选+6.6 万吨冶炼产能，Bikita 实现大幅降本，非洲 3 万吨冶炼厂稳步推进；（2）铯铷：公司把持全球仅存在产铯榴石资源， 主要竞争对手因缺少原料退出市场，公司逐步主导全球铷铯供应；（3） 铜锗：收购 Kitumba 铜矿、Tsumeb 冶炼厂及其含锗尾矿，铜业务实现 突破，规划一体化采选冶项目，构建中长期新兴增长极。 锂业务：行业出清步入中后期，公司持续降本及一体化打造成本"安 全垫"。行业层面：我们预计今年锂盐供需力量配比为 135/123 万吨 LCE 区间，供给过剩格局延续。后市看，海外电动车渗透率提升与储能 维持高景气度背景下预计锂盐需求维持中高增速；当前锂价水平已突 破高成本矿山完全成本边界线，中长期不具备持续性，新旧产能实际 投放或不及预期，锂价拐点有望加速临近。公司层面：资源端公司拥有 Bikita 及 Tanco 两座在产矿山，合计采选产能 418 万吨均已达产；冶 炼端公司现有 6.6 万吨电池级锂盐柔性产线，预计公司通过自建输 ...

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains an **Overweight** rating for the environmental protection industry [5] Core Views - The environmental protection industry faced short-term pressure in 2024 Q1-Q3, with overall revenue declining by 1.3% YoY to 2495.9 billion yuan, and net profit attributable to shareholders dropping by 14.2% YoY to 189.7 billion yuan [2] - The industry's profitability declined slightly, with gross margin at 24.8% (down 0.1pct YoY) and net margin at 8.3% (down 1.1pct YoY) [2] - Operating cash flow increased significantly by 20.5% YoY to 194.0 billion yuan, while investment cash flow outflows rose by 4.1% YoY to 413.7 billion yuan [3] - Sub-sectors showed significant divergence, with solid waste treatment performing well, while energy conservation and water treatment sectors underperformed [4] Sub-Sector Analysis Solid Waste Treatment - Solid waste treatment sector revenue grew by 10.7% YoY to 1195.3 billion yuan, with net profit increasing by 1.7% YoY to 88.2 billion yuan [4] - The sector benefited from stable operations of waste-to-energy projects and improved profitability [4] - Operating cash flow surged by 56.0% YoY to 120.6 billion yuan, driven by cost control and policy support [27] Water Utilities - Water utilities sector revenue remained stable at 533.7 billion yuan, with net profit increasing by 18.1% YoY to 104.0 billion yuan [30] - Gross margin improved to 35.9% (up 1.6pct YoY), while operating cash flow decreased by 9.7% YoY to 74.3 billion yuan [34] Monitoring - The monitoring sector revenue declined by 4.6% YoY to 66.3 billion yuan, but net profit increased by 52.0% YoY to 2.5 billion yuan [37] - Operating cash flow turned positive, reaching 0.8 billion yuan, compared to -5.2 billion yuan in the same period last year [39] Water Treatment - Water treatment sector revenue decreased by 8.1% YoY to 241.3 billion yuan, with net profit dropping by 59.6% YoY to 7.5 billion yuan [40] - Operating cash flow declined to 5.5 billion yuan, down from 6.9 billion yuan in the previous year [44] Air Pollution Control - Air pollution control sector revenue decreased by 1.6% YoY to 240.9 billion yuan, with net profit dropping by 22.9% YoY to 10.4 billion yuan [49] - Operating cash flow increased significantly by 130.2% YoY to 12.8 billion yuan [51] Energy Conservation - Energy conservation sector revenue declined sharply by 35.3% YoY to 218.4 billion yuan, with net profit turning to a loss of -22.9 billion yuan [55] - Operating cash flow dropped significantly to -20.0 billion yuan, down 240.7% YoY [58] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends companies benefiting from carbon neutrality and resource recycling, such as **High Energy Environment** and **Huicheng Environmental** [62][63] - It also highlights state-owned enterprises with high dividends and improved cash flow, such as **Hongcheng Environment** and **Hanblue Environment**, which are expected to benefit from debt resolution policies [64][65]

证券研究报告 | 宏观研究 gszqdatemark 2024 11 14 年 月 日 宏观点评 一文读懂房地产税收新政 事件：11 月 13 日下午，财政部、税务总局、住房城乡建设部发布《关于促进房地 产市场平稳健康发展有关税收政策的公告》。 核心结论：本次房地产相关税收政策调整是本轮一揽子稳增长政策的重要组成部 分，是稳地产的税收政策安排。本次调整主要集中在契税和增值税方面，契税调整 了税率划分标准，一线城市与普宅和非普宅挂钩的增值税也做了调整。此外，还将 各地区土地增值税预征率下限统一调降 0.5 个百分点。影响看，本次房地产税收政 策调整有助于降低居民购房成本、缓解房企现金流压力，对于稳定房地产市场具 有重要意义。往后看，继续提示：当前政策的底层逻辑已转变，尤其是中央加杠杆 的想象空间明显打开，更多新的增量政策应正在储备、并有望陆续出台，短期紧盯 12 月的政治局会议和中央经济工作会议。 1、背景看，本次房地产相关税收政策调整是本轮一揽子稳增长政策的重要组成部 分，是稳地产的税收政策安排。10.12 财政部发布会上，蓝佛安部长即表示"叠加 运用地方政府专项债券、专项资金、税收政策等工具，支持推动房地产 ...

宏观点评 证券研究报告 | 宏观研究 gszqdatemark 2024 11 14 年 月 日 "再通胀"叙事重演——美国 10 月 CPI 点评 事件：北京时间 11 月 13 日 21:30，美国公布 10 月 CPI 数据。 核心结论：美国 10 月 CPI 和核心 CPI 均符合预期，主要分项变化不大， 整体通胀粘性仍强。数据公布后，市场预期美联储 12 月再降息 25bp 概率 从 60%升至 80%，2025 年仍维持大概率再降 50bp 不变。根据我们测算， 2025 年美国通胀将进入瓶颈期，中枢水平仍将明显高于 2%。近期市场已 开始交易美国再通胀预期，预计短期内美债收益率和美元指数维持高位， 但进一步上行空间不会太大。 1、美国 10 月 CPI 和核心 CPI 均符合预期，整体通胀粘性仍强。 >整体表现：美国 10 月未季调 CPI 同比 2.6%，符合预期，高于前值 2.4%， 结束了此前的 6 连降；核心 CPI 同比 3.3%，与预期值和前值持平，自 2024 年 6 月以来基本走平。季调后 CPI 环比 0.2%，核心 CPI 环比 0.3%，均 与预期值、前值、过去 12 个月 ...

证券研究报告 | 季报点评 gszqdatemark 2024 11 13 年 月 日 零跑汽车（09863.HK） 销售旺盛，Q3 毛利率超预期 销量亮眼，Q3 毛利率超预期。受益于 7 月以旧换新政策加码、C10 和 C16 等新 车爬坡，公司 Q3 交付了 86165 辆汽车，同比/环比增长了 94%/62%。销量拉动 下，Q3 收入同比增长 74.3%至 98.6 亿人民币。由于 1）相对高价的 C10 和 C16 快速上量、产品销售结构优化，2）公司持续改善成本管理工作，3）规模效应，公 司 Q3 毛利率同比/环比大幅提升 6.9/5.3pct 至 8.1%，毛利润同比大涨 100%+至 8 亿左右。费用整体小幅增长，增速远小于收入增速，因此费用率大幅收窄。与此 同时，Q3 归母净亏损收窄明显，亏损幅度同比降低 30%至 6.9 亿，亏损率环比收 窄 15pct 至 7%；经调整净亏损为 5.4 亿，经调整净亏损率为 5%左右。 汽车销售结构优化，全年销量大概率超出目标。零跑汽车 2024Q3 销售的 86165 辆汽车中，大约有 78.3%为 C 系列车型，整体产品结构有所改善。从月度高频销 量数 ...

增持（维持） 证券研究报告|行业专题研究 gszqdatemark 2024 11 12 年 月 日 国防军工 民爆：西部大开发先锋，景气上行确定性高 为什么要重视民爆这个产业方向？ 1、民爆产业景气向上：西部大开发上升为国家重点战略，民爆是新基建 发力率先受益方向。 民爆被称为"能源工业的能源，基础工业的基础"。具体包括：工业炸药、 工业雷管、工业导爆索等。作为国家的基础性行业，民爆产品被广泛应用 于矿山开采、铁路道路、水利水电工程、基础设施建设等多个领域。 2024 年 8 月政治局会议审议《进一步推动西部大开发形成新格局的若干 政策措施》，指出西部大开发是党中央作出的重大战略决策。以新疆大开 发、雅鲁藏布江水电、山西古贤水利枢纽工程等代表性的基建工程启动， 将率先牵引民爆这一前置产业的发展，民爆产业景气上行确定性高。 2、民爆产业：需求端景气向上，供给端受管控限制，利于头部企业整合。 1）民爆是一门好生意：牌照生意及区域封锁特征拥有很深的护城河。 民爆产品由于易燃易爆的特殊属性实行严格的许可证制度，受到国家严格 管控、地方保护及区域封锁，所以我们关注当地有产能布局的民爆龙头（或 者通过并购等方式置换产能 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Buy** rating for Honglu Steel Structure (002541 SZ) [6] Core Views - Honglu Steel Structure is the leading domestic steel structure manufacturer with a strong competitive advantage in cost efficiency, production scale, and customer stickiness [1] - The company's annual production capacity has reached 6 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 90% and a production-sales ratio of 95% in 2023 [1] - The domestic steel structure market has significant growth potential, with the industry expected to grow at a CAGR of over 9% from 2023 to 2025 [2] - The company is expanding its overseas business, with successful deliveries in Thailand, Indonesia, and Mexico, and is expected to benefit from higher-margin overseas orders [2] - The company is accelerating its intelligent transformation, focusing on cutting, welding, and spraying processes, which is expected to significantly improve cost efficiency and profitability [3] Industry Overview - The domestic steel structure market is highly fragmented, with the top 5 listed companies accounting for only 7% of the market share in 2023, and Honglu Steel Structure holding a 3 8% market share [2] - The steel structure industry is expected to grow steadily, with the usage of steel structures projected to reach 1 4 billion tons by 2025, accounting for 15% of crude steel production [2] - The industry is undergoing a transformation, with small and medium-sized enterprises being phased out due to stricter policies and price fluctuations, while leading companies like Honglu Steel Structure are strengthening their market position [39] Company Operations - The company has 10 major production bases across China, strategically located to enhance order response speed and large-scale project collaboration [18] - Honglu Steel Structure has a strong cost advantage due to its large-scale procurement, intelligent production, and refined management capabilities, with steel procurement costs 10%-13% lower than industry peers [21] - The company has established long-term strategic partnerships with major state-owned enterprises and industry leaders, such as China State Construction, China Metallurgical Group, and SMIC, ensuring stable and large-scale orders [32] Intelligent Transformation - The company is focusing on intelligent transformation in three core areas: cutting, welding, and spraying, which is expected to significantly improve production efficiency and reduce costs [3] - By 2024, the company had equipped over 500 high-power laser cutting machines, improving cutting precision and efficiency, and increasing material utilization by 0 9% [3][56] - The company has made significant progress in welding robots, with the potential to increase gross margins by 0 9-1 8 percentage points depending on the replacement rate of welding robots [3] Overseas Expansion - The company is actively expanding its overseas business, with orders from Thailand, Indonesia, and Mexico already delivered in 2024 [2] - Overseas orders are expected to contribute significantly to the company's profitability, with higher margins compared to domestic orders [47] - The company's overseas business is mainly driven by domestic customers' overseas projects, which reduces market development costs and avoids risks associated with geopolitical and exchange rate fluctuations [47] Financial Performance - The company's revenue in 2023 was 23 539 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 18 6%, and net profit attributable to shareholders was 1 179 billion yuan, a slight increase of 1 4% [5] - The company's R&D investment in 2023 was 700 million yuan, accounting for 2 97% of revenue, a significant increase of 52% year-on-year [51] - The company's EPS for 2024-2026 is forecasted to be 1 25, 1 40, and 1 56 yuan per share, respectively, with a current PE ratio of 13 4x for 2024 [4]

证券研究报告 | 行业专题研究 gszqdatemark 2024 11 11 年 月 日 轻工制造 2024Q3 造纸综述：供需压力、盈利探底、龙头成长 | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...