- The non-bank sector confirmed a daily-level decline this week, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.21% for the week[1][7] - The A-share prosperity index was 22.14 as of September 26, 2025, up 15.83 from the end of 2023, indicating an upward cycle[2][28] - The A-share sentiment index signals were empty for both bottom and top signals, with a comprehensive signal of empty[2][35] - The CSI 500 enhanced portfolio outperformed the benchmark by 0.91% this week, with a cumulative excess return of 50.71% since 2020 and a maximum drawdown of -5.73%[2][44] - The CSI 500 enhanced portfolio's holdings include stocks such as Guojin Securities, Nanjing Iron & Steel, and Perfect World, among others[2][47] - The CSI 300 enhanced portfolio underperformed the benchmark by 0.81% this week, with a cumulative excess return of 37.70% since 2020 and a maximum drawdown of -5.86%[2][51] - The CSI 300 enhanced portfolio's holdings include stocks such as Huaneng International, Founder Securities, and Wuxi AppTec, among others[2][53] - The market style analysis shows that the size factor had a high excess return this week, while the residual volatility factor had a significant negative excess return[5][56] - The style factor performance indicates that high Beta and high growth stocks performed well recently, while residual volatility and value factors performed poorly[5][56] - The main indices' performance attribution shows that the Shanghai Composite Index, SSE 50, and CSI 300 had large exposures to the size factor, while the CSI 500 and Wind All A had smaller exposures[5][61]

Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market is expected to continue its short - term volatile trend, but the adjustment space is limited. The long - term bond interest rate is expected to decline smoothly in the second half of the fourth quarter, and the 10 - year Treasury bond is expected to recover to around 1.6% - 1.65% by the end of the year. A neutral position across the holiday is recommended, along with leveraging and a dumbbell - shaped strategy [6][23]. Summary by Related Contents Bond Market Current Situation - This week, the bond market continued its weak and volatile trend. The yields of 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bonds were 1.80% and 2.12% respectively, with changes of - 0.5bps and + 1.9bps from last week. The yields of 1 - year AAA certificates of deposit rose slightly by 1.0bps to 1.69%. The yields of 3 - year and 5 - year AAA - second - tier capital bonds rose significantly by 11.6bps and 17.9bps to 2.11% and 2.31% respectively [1][9]. Seasonal Characteristics of the Bond Market - There is no obvious seasonality in long - term bonds around the National Day. After the holiday, funds tend to be seasonally loose. In the past four years, the 10 - year Treasury bond yield decreased by an average of 0.9bp in the first week after the National Day and 0.2bp in October compared with the end of September. The funds in October were not significantly tightened. Considering the current insufficient financing demand and the central bank's care for liquidity, the overall funds are expected to remain loose, and R007 is expected to run around 1.4% - 1.5% [2][10]. Fundamental Analysis - In recent months, the financing demand has been weak, credit has increased less year - on - year, and the growth rate of social financing has slowed down. Even if 1 trillion of refinancing bonds are issued in advance in the fourth quarter, the supply of government bonds will still be about 0.7 trillion less than last year. The funds are expected to remain loose, and the asset shortage is expected to intensify. The recent weakening of fundamental data also means that economic stabilization requires low - interest rate support [2][13]. Analysis of Industrial Enterprise Profits - In August, the total profit of industrial enterprises increased by 21.5% year - on - year, a significant increase from - 0.7% in the previous month. Part of the improvement is due to the low base last year (a year - on - year decline of 22.2% in August last year), and the other part may be due to the increase in investment income from the good performance of the stock market. The year - on - year growth rate of the monthly operating income of industrial enterprises in August increased by 1.4 percentage points to 3.4% compared with July. The increase in profit may be more from investment income, and its sustainability needs further observation [3][14]. Stabilizing Forces in the Bond Market - As bond yields continued to rise in the third quarter, allocation - type institutions began to continuously buy bonds, which played a role in stabilizing the market. On the one hand, the current interest rate level is attractive compared with the liability cost of allocation - type institutions. On the other hand, large banks and other institutions are responsible for stabilizing the market, as the new revised evaluation indicators for primary dealers in open - market operations include bond - market making and assess their performance in stabilizing the market during bond - market fluctuations [4][17]. Uncertainties in the Bond Market - The reform of public - fund fees may affect the allocation power of non - bank institutions, especially when the consultation period for the draft opinion expires on October 5. Seasonal changes in some data, such as the possible seasonal rebound of the manufacturing PMI in September (an average increase of 0.3 percentage points compared with August in the past four years), may also affect market sentiment [5][18]. Investment Strategy - A neutral position across the holiday is recommended, along with leveraging and a dumbbell - shaped strategy (short - term credit/certificates of deposit + long - term interest rates). High - selling and low - buying band operations can be carried out for long - term interest - rate positions. The 10 - year Treasury bond with a yield above 1.8% still has allocation value [6][23].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including 山金国际, 赤峰黄金, 洛阳钼业, 中国宏桥, and 中钨高新 [3]. Core Insights - Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, are trading around interest rate cuts, with silver showing potential for a short squeeze due to low inventory levels and continued inflows into ETFs [1][33]. - Industrial metals like copper are supported by production cuts at the Grasberg mine and a reduction in global copper supply, while aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate as the market awaits demand recovery [1][33]. - Energy metals, particularly lithium, are experiencing active trading ahead of the holiday, with expectations of strong supply growth in the fourth quarter [1][33]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold and silver continue to trade based on interest rate expectations, with silver's strong performance linked to low inventory levels and ETF inflows [1][33]. - The U.S. core PCE price index for August recorded a year-on-year rate of 2.9%, aligning with expectations and reducing concerns about interest rate cuts [1][33]. Industrial Metals - Copper prices are supported by production cuts at the Grasberg mine, with a projected reduction of over 500,000 tons in global copper supply over the next 12 to 15 months [1][33]. - Aluminum supply is increasing as production capacity is restored, but prices are expected to remain stable in the short term [1][33]. Energy Metals - Lithium prices are stable, with active trading as companies prepare for the holiday season, and supply expectations remain strong for the fourth quarter [1][33]. - The report notes a slight increase in lithium carbonate production, with inventory levels decreasing [1][33]. Key Companies to Watch - The report highlights several companies to monitor, including 兴业银锡, 盛达资源, 万国黄金集团, 中金黄金, 紫金矿业, 山东黄金, 赤峰黄金, 银泰黄金, 招金矿业, 洛阳钼业, 明泰铝业, and others [1][3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the food and beverage industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [5]. Core Insights - The report highlights that leading liquor brands are actively responding to the upcoming peak sales season during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, with signs of marginal improvement in sales after a prolonged bottoming period in Q2 [2]. - In the beer and beverage sector, the departure of the CFO of China Resources Beer is noted, alongside the continuous introduction of new products in the beverage industry, reflecting a competitive landscape [3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on high-growth companies in the consumer goods sector, particularly those benefiting from policy support or recovery improvements [4]. Summary by Sections Liquor Industry - The report indicates that terminal demand for liquor has shown signs of recovery, with sales in September increasing by 15%-25% month-on-month, although year-on-year figures remain slightly down [2]. - Leading brands like Moutai and Wuliangye are taking proactive measures to stabilize prices and enhance market strategies ahead of the peak sales season [2]. Beer and Beverage Sector - The report notes the resignation of the CFO of China Resources Beer and suggests monitoring the recovery of the restaurant sector and sales structure performance [3]. - New product launches in the beverage sector are highlighted, catering to consumer demand for natural and additive-free drinks [3]. Food Sector - The report mentions that Wanchen Group has submitted an application for listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with plans to expand its store network and enhance digital capabilities [4]. - The upcoming holiday season is expected to drive demand for dairy products and mooncakes, leading to a temporary surge in sales [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [4] Core Insights - The digital currency has entered a global implementation phase with the official operation of the Digital Renminbi International Operation Center, marking a shift from domestic trials to global financial infrastructure output [1][9] - The establishment of the operation center aims to enhance the internationalization of the Renminbi and strengthen Shanghai's position as an international financial hub [9] - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut is expected to create a turning point for global liquidity, providing more room for monetary policy adjustments in China [2][13] Summary by Sections Digital Currency Development - The Digital Renminbi International Operation Center launched on September 24, 2023, introducing three major platforms: a cross-border digital payment platform, a blockchain service platform, and a digital asset platform [1][10] - These platforms aim to address traditional cross-border payment inefficiencies, enhance blockchain interoperability, and provide standardized services for financial-grade digital assets [10][12] Cross-Border Financial Infrastructure - The cross-border digital payment platform aims to reduce transaction costs by over 60% and shorten settlement times from 3-5 days to minutes through real-time tracking and integration with existing systems [11] - The blockchain service platform has successfully completed rapid settlements for supply chain payments, demonstrating the potential for cross-border digital currency applications [11] - The digital asset platform supports the issuance and trading of over 20 types of assets, enhancing settlement efficiency by 50% [11] Recommended Industry Chain - Key companies in the digital Renminbi IT system include Zhongke Jincai, Jingbeifang, and Hang Seng Electronics, among others [3][14] - Companies involved in cross-border payments include Xiaogoods City, Newland, and Lakala [3][14] - Securities IT firms include Tonghuashun, Great Wisdom, and Zhongxin Securities [3][14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for companies in the computing power sector, particularly recommending leading firms in the optical module industry such as Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi Sheng [8][11]. Core Insights - The collaboration between Nvidia and OpenAI marks a significant milestone, indicating that the demand for computing power is a long-term trend rather than a short-term phenomenon [24][25]. - Alibaba's CEO outlined a three-phase roadmap towards Artificial Super Intelligence (ASI), emphasizing the critical role of computing power in this evolution [27][28]. - The report highlights the ongoing arms race in computing infrastructure among major AI players, with unprecedented capital investments aimed at securing resources for future AI developments [30]. Summary by Sections Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on the computing power sector, particularly in optical communication, with specific companies recommended for investment [16]. - Key companies include Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, and Tianfu Communication, among others [9][16]. Market Overview - The communication sector experienced a decline, with quantum communication performing relatively well [20][21]. - The report notes that the overall market sentiment is influenced by significant investments in AI infrastructure, particularly from Nvidia and OpenAI [19][24]. AI Development and Computing Power - The partnership between Nvidia and OpenAI involves deploying at least 10 GW of AI data centers, with Nvidia planning to invest up to $100 billion [25][26]. - OpenAI's active user base has surpassed 700 million, highlighting the increasing demand for computing resources [26]. Phases of ASI Evolution - The three phases towards ASI include: 1. Emergence of general AI (AGI) 2. Autonomous action phase 3. Self-iterative phase, which demands nearly limitless computing power [29][28]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates a significant increase in capital expenditures (CAPEX) in the domestic market, driven by recent actions from major players like Alibaba [30][7]. - The computing power supply chain is expected to benefit across various segments, including AI chips, servers, and cooling solutions [30].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several key companies in the textile and apparel sector, including Anta Sports, Li Ning, and others, while recommending "Add" for Chow Tai Fook and Chao Hong Ji [5][11]. Core Insights - Inditex, the parent company of Zara, reported a stable performance for FY2025H1, with revenue growth of 1.6% year-on-year to €18.4 billion, and a net profit increase of 0.8% to €2.8 billion [1][16]. - The report highlights the resilience of the sportswear segment, which is expected to outperform the overall apparel market, with a healthy inventory turnover ratio of 4-5 [3][22]. - Long-term growth strategies for Inditex include enhancing brand positioning, customer service, and sustainable practices, with a projected 5% increase in total sales area from 2025 to 2026 [2][21]. Summary by Sections Textile and Apparel - Inditex's FY2025H1 revenue reached €18.4 billion, with a 5.1% increase on a currency-neutral basis, and a gross margin of 58.3% [1][16]. - The company reported a healthy inventory level of €3.466 billion, up 3.1% year-on-year, indicating strong inventory management [1][18]. Sportswear Segment - The sportswear sector is expected to show robust growth, with key companies like Anta Sports and Li Ning recommended for their strong performance and growth potential [25][38]. - The report notes that the sportswear segment's revenue for H1 2025 increased by 9.1% to ¥65.9 billion, with a net profit growth of 8.2% to ¥10.54 billion [34]. Jewelry Sector - The jewelry market is facing challenges, with gold jewelry consumption down 27% and 24% in Q1 and Q2 2025, respectively [37]. - Companies with strong product differentiation and brand power, such as Chow Tai Fook and Chao Hong Ji, are expected to outperform the industry [23][38]. Manufacturing Sector - The textile manufacturing sector is experiencing a shift due to new tariff policies, with companies like Shenzhou International recommended for their stable performance and valuation [24][38]. - The report indicates that the manufacturing segment's revenue grew by 2.7% in H1 2025, while net profit declined by 9.8% [10][36].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [4] Core Views - The current monetary policy stance in China is supportive, with measures to optimize down payment ratios and mortgage rates, potentially reducing interest expenses for over 50 million households by approximately 300 billion yuan annually [10][11] - The real estate sector is viewed as an early-cycle indicator, making it a key economic barometer [4] - The competitive landscape in the industry is improving, with leading state-owned enterprises and select mixed-ownership and private companies expected to benefit more in the future [4] - The report emphasizes a focus on first-tier and select second- and third-tier cities, which have shown better performance during sales rebounds [4] - Supply-side policies, including land storage and management of idle land, are critical areas to monitor for future developments [4] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The real estate index decreased by 0.2% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.22 percentage points, ranking 11th among 31 sectors [12] - In the past week, 30 cities recorded new housing transaction areas of 186.1 million square meters, a 20.0% increase month-on-month but a 23.6% decrease year-on-year [23] New Housing Transactions - New housing transaction areas in first-tier cities reached 55.8 million square meters, up 11.6% month-on-month and up 12.5% year-on-year [23] - Second-tier cities saw transactions of 91.0 million square meters, a 41.9% increase month-on-month but a 20.5% decrease year-on-year [23] - Third-tier cities recorded 39.2 million square meters, down 4.1% month-on-month and down 50.6% year-on-year [23] Second-Hand Housing Transactions - The total transaction area for second-hand housing in 14 sample cities was 198.9 million square meters, a 1.4% increase month-on-month and a 13.9% increase year-on-year [31] - Year-to-date, the cumulative transaction area for second-hand housing is 7,815.4 million square meters, reflecting a 17.3% increase year-on-year [31] Credit Bond Issuance - This week, 14 credit bonds were issued by real estate companies, totaling 14.781 billion yuan, a 67.61 billion yuan increase from the previous week [41] - The net financing amount was 4.562 billion yuan, marking a significant increase of 111.56 billion yuan from the previous week [41]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Maintain Buy" [5] Core Viewpoints - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) emphasizes stabilizing electricity prices and preventing "involution" in the industry. The new target for wind and solar installed capacity is set at 360 million kilowatts by 2035 [3][10] - As of August 2025, the total installed capacity of power generation in China reached 3.69 billion kilowatts, with a year-on-year growth of 18%. Solar power capacity reached 1.12 billion kilowatts, growing by 48.5%, while wind power capacity reached 580 million kilowatts, increasing by 22.1% [4][11] - The report suggests that the current year is crucial for achieving the 14th Five-Year Plan goals, with significant growth in wind and solar installations expected, potentially reaching the 2030 target ahead of schedule [3][11] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.21% to 3828.11 points, while the CSI 300 Index increased by 1.07% to 4550.05 points during the week of September 22-26, 2025. The CITIC Power and Utilities Index rose by 0.56%, underperforming the CSI 300 by 0.51 percentage points [1][57] Key Industry Insights - The SASAC's meeting on September 25 focused on stabilizing coal and electricity prices, indicating that the downward pressure on electricity prices is expected to ease [4][16] - The new national contribution target aims for 360 million kilowatts of installed wind and solar capacity by 2035, with nearly 200 million kilowatts of additional capacity available for development [3][11] - The report highlights the importance of renewable energy consumption and the potential for green electricity trading policies to be strengthened [3][11] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on undervalued green electricity sectors, particularly in Hong Kong stocks and wind power operators. Specific companies to watch include Xintian Green Energy (H), Longyuan Power, and Jidian Co. [4] - It also suggests paying attention to the thermal power sector, with companies like Huaneng International and Huadian International being highlighted for their potential [4][7] Market Performance - The report notes that over half of the listed companies in the power and utilities sector experienced declines in stock prices during the week [1][57] - The carbon market saw a decrease in trading prices, with a weekly drop of 0.87% [52] Key Metrics - As of August 2025, the average utilization hours for power generation equipment were 2105 hours, a decrease of 223 hours compared to the previous year [4][11] - The report indicates that the cumulative trading volume of carbon emission allowances reached 723 million tons, with a total transaction value of 49.525 billion yuan [52]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Maintain Overweight" [3] Core Viewpoints - The agricultural sector is experiencing a strong trend towards high-yield, densely planted varieties, particularly in hybrid corn, with MY73 maintaining the top position in terms of planting area at 20.97 million acres, showing a slight increase from last year [1][10] - In the pig farming sector, the average selling price of lean pigs is 12.44 yuan/kg, down 3% from last week, indicating a continued low valuation in the market [2][11] - The poultry sector shows mixed trends, with white feather chicken prices rising by 0.3% to 6.9 yuan/kg, while chicken product prices remain stable at 8.65 yuan/kg [11][31] - The introduction of genetically modified varieties is expected to enhance the growth potential of industry companies, with commercial sales anticipated to begin following the public announcement period [11][12] Summary by Sections Agricultural Data Tracking - The average selling price of lean pigs is 12.44 yuan/kg, down 3% from last week, while the average wholesale price of pork is 19.42 yuan/kg, down 0.3% [12][20] - The price of 15kg piglets is 23.98 yuan/kg, down 4.7% week-on-week [19][23] Pig Farming - The self-breeding profit per head is -74.11 yuan, a decrease of 49.66 yuan from last week, while the profit from purchasing piglets is -236.57 yuan, down 37.25 yuan [16][17] - The average weight of slaughtered pigs remains stable at 89.07 kg [19][21] Poultry Farming - The price of meat chicken seedlings has increased by 4.4% to 3.29 yuan each, while the price of parent chicken seedlings has decreased by 0.4% to 43.19 yuan/set [26][29] - The profit from parent chicken breeding is 0.54 yuan each, up 0.14 yuan from last week, while the profit from meat chicken breeding is -2.22 yuan each, down 0.66 yuan [36][37] Crop Prices - Domestic corn prices have risen by 0.2% to 2365.29 yuan/ton, while soybean meal prices have decreased by 0.4% to 3019.71 yuan/ton [45][67] - The price of domestic wheat is 2436.28 yuan/ton, also up by 0.2% [47] Market Trends - The agricultural sector has underperformed compared to the CSI 300 index, with a decline of 1.97% [7][8] - The overall market sentiment indicates a potential recovery in chicken prices following emotional adjustments in the market [11][12]