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中国电建:现金流显著改善,新能源盈利占比持续提升-20250428
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-04-28 01:23
证券研究报告 | 年报点评报告 gszqdatemark 2025 04 28 年 月 日 投资建议:我们预计公司 2025-2027 年归母净利润分别为 129/136/141 亿,同比 增长 7%/5%/4%,EPS 分别为 0.75/0.79/0.82 元/股,当前股价对应 PE 分别为 6.4/6.1/5.9 倍,维持"买入"评级。 风险提示:电力投资不及预期、信用减值风险、新能源投产盈利不及预期等。 中国电建(601669.SH) 现金流显著改善,新能源盈利占比持续提升 减值增加致 Q4 业绩承压,新能源工程业务维持高增。2024 年公司实现营业收入 6346 亿,同增 4%;实现归母净利润 120 亿,同降 7%;扣非归母净利润同降 5%。 分季度看:Q1/Q2/Q3/Q4 单季分别实现营收 1403/1451/1410/2082 亿,同比 +5%/-2%/+1%/+10%;单季归母净利润分别为 30/33/25/32 亿,同比+1%/- 12%/-9%/-7%,Q4 营收增长明显提速,业绩有所承压,主要因单季计提减值损 失 49 亿,较同期增加 16 亿。分业务看:工程承包业务实现营收 5431 ...
大金重工:业绩超预期,海风出海盈利攀升-20250428
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-04-28 01:23
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6] Core Views - The company reported better-than-expected performance with a revenue of 3.78 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 12.6% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 11.5% to 470 million yuan [1] - The company is focusing on expanding its export of offshore engineering products, which has led to improved profitability and a significant increase in revenue from this segment [2][3] - The establishment of a floating foundation business center and participation in global tenders are part of the company's strategy to enhance its market position in the offshore wind sector [4] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 29.83%, up 6.4 percentage points year-on-year, and a net profit margin of 12.54%, up 2.7 percentage points [1] - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 1.141 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 146.36%, and a net profit of 231 million yuan, up 335.91% year-on-year [1] - The company expects net profits to reach 898 million yuan, 1.181 billion yuan, and 1.514 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 19.5, 14.8, and 11.6 [4][5] Business Segment Insights - The revenue from the export of offshore engineering products reached 1.733 billion yuan in 2024, with a gross margin of 38.5% [2] - The company's renewable energy segment generated 220 million yuan in revenue in Q1 2025, a 64% increase year-on-year, driven by the profitability of a 250MW wind power project [3] - The company has completed the layout of three major offshore engineering export bases, targeting the global offshore engineering market [2]
中国电建(601669):现金流显著改善,新能源盈利占比持续提升
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-04-28 01:23
证券研究报告 | 年报点评报告 gszqdatemark 2025 04 28 年 月 日 中国电建(601669.SH) 现金流显著改善,新能源盈利占比持续提升 减值增加致 Q4 业绩承压,新能源工程业务维持高增。2024 年公司实现营业收入 6346 亿,同增 4%;实现归母净利润 120 亿,同降 7%;扣非归母净利润同降 5%。 分季度看:Q1/Q2/Q3/Q4 单季分别实现营收 1403/1451/1410/2082 亿,同比 +5%/-2%/+1%/+10%;单季归母净利润分别为 30/33/25/32 亿,同比+1%/- 12%/-9%/-7%,Q4 营收增长明显提速,业绩有所承压,主要因单季计提减值损 失 49 亿,较同期增加 16 亿。分业务看:工程承包业务实现营收 5431 亿,同增 4.5%,其中水资源与环境/能源电力/基建工程分别实现营收 801/2932/1699 亿, 同比+12%/+15%/-12%,能源电力工程增长较快,主要系新能源及抽蓄工程高增 驱动(收入分别同增 22%/35%)。勘测设计/电力投资与运营/其他业务(设备制 造、砂石骨料等)实现营收 319/254/313 ...
学大教育:教育主业夯实,高成长有望延续-20250428
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-04-28 01:20
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][8]. Core Views - The company's education business is solidifying, with high growth expected to continue. In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 2.786 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.90%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 180 million yuan, up 16.84% year-on-year [1]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw operating revenue of 864 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.46%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 74 million yuan, up 47.00% year-on-year, primarily due to recovered impaired equity investments [1][2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the training revenue grew by 25.64% to 2.697 billion yuan, with the core high school personalized education business peaking before the college entrance examination [2]. - As of Q1 2025, cash receipts from sales and services reached 1.085 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.60%, indicating strong revenue growth certainty [2]. Operational Efficiency - The gross margin for 2024 and Q1 2025 was 34.56% and 32.02%, respectively, reflecting a slight decline due to increased teacher costs from network expansion [3]. - The company has repaid all principal loans to Unisplendour, reducing financial burdens and potentially accelerating performance [3]. Business Expansion - The company has expanded its personalized tutoring model, with over 300 learning centers and five full-time schools by the end of 2024, supporting high-quality development in the education sector [4]. - The vocational education business is also deepening, with over 15 vocational schools and integration bases, benefiting from government policies promoting vocational education [4]. Investment Outlook - Short-term performance may be impacted by store expansion and increased teaching staff, but long-term profitability is expected to improve as the business matures [5]. - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 250 million, 320 million, and 420 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with growth rates of 41.5%, 27.5%, and 28.6% [5].
美国关税政策松动,金价短期进入盘整期
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-04-28 01:20
证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 04 27 年 月 日 有色金属 美国关税政策松动,金价短期进入盘整期 黄金:短期或进入盘整期,中期仍具备上涨动能。近期黄金价格冲高回落,短期看:1)关 税缓和信号缓解市场避险情绪:当地时间周二,特朗普表示,在关税谈判期间他不会对中国 采取"强硬手段",并"乐观"认为能够"相当迅速地"与之达成一项协议,"大幅下调"对 中国进口商品加征的 145%巨额关税;2)短期涨幅过高,多头获利了结;3)金价快速上涨 背景下,市场对央行购金的持续性产生担忧。中期来看,美国经济数据疲弱在特朗普超预期 的关税政策公布前已初现端倪,市场由特朗普胜选初期的"过热+通胀"逻辑转向滞涨。此 外,关税政策的不确定性对美国企业和消费者信心已造成冲击,未来不排除其经济数据进一 步走弱的可能。周内美联储理事沃勒公开讲话释放出对美国经济下行风险的担忧,表示""一 旦劳动力市场出现严重恶化,我预计会进一步降息,而且降息会更快。"建议关注:紫金矿 业、山东黄金、赤峰黄金、银泰黄金、招金矿业等。 工业金属:(1)铜:下游开工率提升,铜库存大幅回落。①宏观方面:特朗普关税态度缓 和后,市场 ...
AI4S结合量子计算,化学研发的未来范式
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-04-28 01:20
证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 04 27 年 月 日 基础化工 AI4S 结合量子计算,化学研发的未来范式 量子计算:突破维度瓶颈,开启化学研发的范式革命。经典计算如同只看 着前方寻路,而量子计算是一种并行计算方式,如同俯视迷宫(增加维度), 同时寻找各条路径上的"宝藏",对于宝藏方位的把握能力自然大幅提升。 量子计算已经进入了软硬件全方位落地的黄金时代,成为全球科技争霸的 战略高地。根据 ICV 及光子盒,2035 年量子总产业规模有望达到 9089 亿 美元,届时量子计算将独占近九成空间,市场规模超过 8000 亿美元。 AI for Science:下一个超级应用。AI for Science(AI4S)即人工智能驱 动的科学研究,2024 年的英伟达 GTC 大会中,黄仁勋将大语言模型、具 身智能、AI4S 并列为 AI 三大关键方向。通过建立相应的 AI 垂类模型, AI4S 可以对产品配方进行优化、研发出升级迭代的新品、对测试结果进 行建模预测,为企业研发效率带来切实的大幅提升。数据和算法能在多维 复杂问题中比人脑更好地抓住规律,一方面,AI4S 可以由原子尺度深 ...
汤臣倍健:经营压力释放,期待逐季向好-20250428
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-04-28 01:20
证券研究报告 | 季报点评 gszqdatemark 2025 04 27 年 月 日 汤臣倍健(300146.SZ) 经营压力释放,期待逐季向好 事件:公司发布 2025 年一季报,25Q1 实现营收 17.9 亿元,同比-32.3%; 实现归母净利润 4.5 亿元,同比-37.4%;实现扣非净利润 4.1 亿元,同比 -42.4%。 高基数及春节错期仍有压力,线下渠道客流量压力更大。25Q1 公司收入 增长仍有承压,我们认为主要受上年同期基数为全年较高、今年春节错期、 消费力偏弱且行业维持较高强度竞争影响。分渠道来看,25Q1 公司线上/ 线下收入同比-15.8%/-42.6%,线下渠道上年同期基数较高,且预计仍受 保健品行业整体线下渠道人流量承压、线上为主要增量渠道影响。分品牌 来看,25Q1 汤臣倍健主品牌/健力多/Life-spacce 国内/LSG 境外收入分别 同比-36.4%/-46.2%/-36.2%/+5.9%,线下占比较高的主品牌、健力多、 Life-spacce 国内收入增长压力较明显,而 LSG 境外表现相对稳健。 毛利率因产品结构及规模效应承压,费用管控效果逐步显现。25Q1 毛利 ...
明阳电气:业绩稳定兑现,后续双海+数据中心有望贡献增量业绩-20250428
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-04-28 01:20
证券研究报告 | 年报点评报告 gszqdatemark 2025 04 27 年 月 日 明阳电气(301291.SZ) 业绩稳定兑现,后续双海+数据中心有望贡献增量业绩 事件:公司发布 2024 年年度报告与 2025 年一季度报告。2024 年全年实现: 1)营收 64.44 亿元,同比+29.62%;归母净利润 6.63 亿元,同比+33.8%; 扣非归母净利润 6.54 亿元,同比+33.57%。2)毛利率 22.29%,同比-0.4pct; 净利率 10.28%,同比+0.22pct。3)期间费用率为 8.38%((售 /管理/研发/ 财务费用率分别为 3.36%、2.05%、3.27%、-0.3%,同比分别变动-0.3,-0.55, +0.02,-0.18pct),同比-1.01pct。2025 年 Q1 实现:1)营收 13.06 亿元, 同比+26.21%,环比-44.53%;归母净利润 1.12 亿元,同比+25.01%,环比 -50.51%。扣非净利润为 1.1 亿元,同比+23.07%,环比-50.78%。2)毛利 率 21.78%,同比-5.59pcts。净利率 8.6%,同比-0. ...
4.25政治局会议的关键信息:新战略、新战术
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-04-28 01:18
Group 1: Macro Insights - The first quarter of 2025 saw industrial enterprises' profits turn positive for the first time in five months, supported by a decline in the base and strong production, although profit margins remain low due to falling factory prices [5] - The April Politburo meeting emphasized a strategic approach to the ongoing trade war, highlighting the need for proactive policy implementation and preparedness for changing circumstances [5] Group 2: Industry Performance - The agricultural sector showed a 6.2% increase in March, while the retail sector experienced a significant 25.0% growth over the past year, indicating strong consumer demand [2] - The power equipment sector faced a decline of 4.9% in March, reflecting ongoing challenges in the industry [2] Group 3: Company-Specific Insights - Shengnong Development (002299.SZ) is positioned as a leader in the white chicken industry, achieving higher profitability than the industry average, with a projected increase in performance due to self-sufficient breeding and a focus on both raw and cooked food segments [22] - China Power International Development is recommended for investment due to its improving cash flow and increasing profitability from renewable energy sources [4] Group 4: Market Trends - The coal market is expected to face pressure as iron production peaks, with a focus on the potential for price increases depending on import disruptions and government stimulus policies [29][31] - The real estate sector is being closely monitored for its recovery, with the Politburo's focus on urban renewal and the acquisition of existing properties to stabilize the market [32] Group 5: Technological Advancements - The integration of AI and quantum computing is set to revolutionize chemical research, with significant market potential projected for 2035 [24][25] - The demand for AI-driven solutions in various sectors, including automotive and data centers, is expected to grow, driven by advancements in technology and increased investment [41][42]
大金重工(002487):业绩超预期,海风出海盈利攀升
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-04-28 01:15
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6] Core Views - The company has exceeded performance expectations with significant growth in offshore wind product profitability, driven by an increase in export orders and a strategic shift towards international markets [1][2][3] - The company is positioned as a leader in the offshore wind tower and pile market, with forecasts indicating substantial profit growth in the coming years [4] Financial Performance Summary - For the year 2024, the company reported revenue of 3.78 billion, a decrease of 12.6% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 474 million, an increase of 11.5% year-on-year [1] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 1.141 billion, a remarkable increase of 146.36% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders reached 231 million, up 335.91% year-on-year [1] - The gross margin for 2024 was 29.83%, an increase of 6.4 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 12.54%, up 2.7 percentage points year-on-year [1] Export and Market Strategy - The company has seen a significant increase in the proportion of revenue from export marine engineering products, with a gross margin of 38.5% for the year, reflecting a strategic pivot away from less profitable domestic operations [2] - The establishment of three major export marine engineering bases has been completed, targeting the global marine engineering market [2] New Energy Sector Growth - The new energy generation business reported revenue of 220 million, a growth of 64.0% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 78.5%, primarily driven by the profitability of a 250MW wind power project [3] - The company has plans for further development in the new energy sector, including a 1GW wind power project in Hebei [3] Future Profitability Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 898 million, 1.181 billion, and 1.514 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 19.5, 14.8, and 11.6 [4][5]