Group 1: Market Overview and Strategy - The report emphasizes the importance of actively participating in market breakthroughs and focusing on performance pricing cues, particularly in sectors like consumer goods, precious metals, and engineering machinery [2] - In June, despite increased geopolitical tensions, risk appetite improved overall, leading to a recovery in equity assets, with major indices in A-shares experiencing upward breakthroughs [2] - The report suggests increasing trading positions to capitalize on strong breakout directions while prioritizing performance certainty in investment allocations [2] Group 2: Financial Engineering and Investment Value - The report discusses the use of DeepSeek to assist fund managers in reducing tracking errors relative to benchmarks, highlighting its capabilities in strategy implementation and code generation [3][4] - The analysis of the 华夏中证生物科技主题 ETF indicates that the demand for innovative drugs is driven by structural upgrades and policy support, with a significant increase in the number of innovative drugs included in the national medical insurance directory [6][7] - The 中证生物科技主题指数 reflects the overall performance of biotechnology stocks, with a focus on sectors like biopharmaceuticals and medical devices, indicating a high concentration of leading companies [8] Group 3: Company-Specific Insights - The report on 容知日新 (688768.SH) highlights its strong gross margin above 60% and net margin near 20%, driven by predictive maintenance solutions that align with industry trends [12] - Revenue projections for 容知日新 are set at 7.91 billion, 10.23 billion, and 12.88 billion CNY for 2025-2027, with corresponding net profits of 1.44 billion, 1.94 billion, and 2.56 billion CNY, indicating robust growth potential [12] - The report on the domestic optical module market suggests that companies like 华工科技 and 中际旭创 are well-positioned to benefit from high demand and supply shortages in the optical communication sector [16] Group 4: Emerging Trends and Innovations - The report notes that the pain relief market is evolving with a shift towards non-opioid medications, driven by innovations in pain management mechanisms [16] - The entry of Robinhood into the tokenized U.S. stock market is expected to accelerate the development of this sector, potentially leading to significant regulatory advancements [14][15] - The analysis of the biotechnology sector indicates a strong long-term growth outlook due to aging demographics and increasing healthcare spending, with innovative drugs gaining traction in the market [7][8]

Investment Rating - Maintain "Add" rating for the industry [5] Core Viewpoints - The domestic optical module market is entering a performance harvest period, driven by policies and demand, with significant growth expected in the second half of the year [1][6] - Companies like Huagong Technology are experiencing capacity expansion and a surge in demand for optical modules driven by AI [2][6] - The entire optical communication industry chain is expected to benefit from the high demand, with leading companies like Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi Sheng likely to consolidate their market positions [3][6] - The company has successfully positioned itself with major internet players like Huawei, providing high-speed optical connection solutions for AI servers, which is expected to drive demand for optical modules [6] - The company is accelerating the construction of domestic and overseas factories to meet growing market demand, with production capacity increasing significantly [6] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The optical module demand is continuously increasing, with overseas promotion progressing smoothly, supported by policies and market needs [6] - The company has completed the first phase of its optical module production base in Wuhan, increasing monthly production capacity from 450,000 to 700,000 units [6] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 3.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 52%, and a net profit of 410 million, up 41% year-on-year [6] - The company has improved its cost control capabilities, with a slight increase in R&D expense ratio and decreases in management and sales expense ratios [6] Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on 3D printing technology through a joint venture with Luxshare Precision, aiming to explore new growth avenues in additive manufacturing [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry [4]. Core Insights - The pain management market is expected to grow significantly, with a projected increase from USD 79.4 billion in 2021 to USD 120.7 billion by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.39% [1]. - There is a shift towards diversified pain relief mechanisms to mitigate addiction risks associated with opioid medications, with non-opioid drugs expected to gain market share [1][6]. - The KOR agonist class represents a promising new direction for postoperative pain management, showing significant efficacy without central side effects [2][6]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The chronic disease prevalence and aging population in China are driving the demand for pain management solutions, despite regulatory challenges and market structure issues [1]. - Current mainstream pain medications include opioids and non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs), both of which have limitations due to side effects and addiction risks [1]. Innovative Solutions - KOR agonists, such as Vertex's Journavx, have been approved for acute pain treatment, targeting peripheral nervous systems to avoid central side effects [2]. - The P2X receptor class is emerging as a new target for non-opioid pain relief, suitable for chronic pain and cancer pain management [3]. Clinical Developments - The STC007 injection by Sunshine Nuohuo has shown promising results in clinical trials for postoperative pain, demonstrating efficacy comparable to traditional treatments with fewer side effects [5][7]. - The report highlights the potential for STC007 to fill a gap in the market for KOR agonists in postoperative pain management, emphasizing its rapid onset and strong analgesic effects [6][7]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests continued attention to companies at the forefront of pain management innovations, such as Sunshine Nuohuo, Hengrui Medicine, Haizhu Pharmaceutical, and Renfu Pharmaceutical, as the market for pain relief solutions expands [6].

Group 1: Macro Insights - The June manufacturing PMI continues to rebound from a low level but remains in the contraction zone, while the non-manufacturing PMI shows a slight increase [3] - Both supply and demand have rebounded, with domestic demand recovering more significantly; import and export orders have also increased but are still in the contraction zone [3] - The overall view indicates that the internal repair momentum is weakening, and July will see a combination of four factors that need close monitoring, including US tariff negotiations and the political bureau meeting [3] Group 2: Strategy and Recommendations - The market outlook for July suggests active participation in breakthroughs while emphasizing performance pricing; despite the uncertainties from tariffs, interest rate cuts, policies, and mid-year reports, there is still value in trading breakthroughs [4] - It is recommended to increase trading positions to capitalize on potential breakthroughs, focusing on strong breakout directions driven by capital synergy and catalysts, while prioritizing performance certainty in investment allocations [4] Group 3: Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors in January, March, and over the past year include Communications (14.1%, 10.7%, 34.4%), Defense and Military (10.9%, 15.0%, 34.7%), and Electronics (8.9%, 0.7%, 36.0%) [1] - The bottom-performing sectors include Food and Beverage (-5.9%, -6.2%, 1.0%), Home Appliances (-3.0%, -5.3%, 14.7%), and Coal (-1.2%, -1.9%, -20.8%) [1] Group 4: Company-Specific Insights - Hard Egg Innovation (00400.HK) is identified as a rare AI computing chip supplier, focusing on a hardware and software platform layout, with a projected revenue of 10.13 billion yuan and a net profit of 190 million yuan for 2024 [13] - The company is expected to benefit from the growing demand for AI chips, with a projected revenue growth of 12.36 billion yuan, 15.63 billion yuan, and 19.48 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027 [16] Group 5: Emerging Trends - The new tobacco industry is rapidly developing, driven by harm reduction and product enhancement, with potential market sizes of 18.7 billion and 11.3 billion USD in the US and China, respectively, under conservative penetration assumptions [12] - The approval of important virtual asset licenses is accelerating financial innovation, with Guotai Junan International becoming the first Hong Kong-based broker to provide comprehensive virtual asset trading services [18]

Group 1: Recent Key Events - The report highlights the importance of monitoring July tariff policies, political bureau meetings, and the State Council meeting, with a specific focus on the July 9 deadline for the U.S. government's suspension of "reciprocal tariffs" [1][8] - The report mentions the successful launch of Tesla's Robotaxi service in Austin, Texas, with 35 vehicles operating at a fare of $4.2 per ride [2][9] - The report notes the upcoming flagship product launches from major hardware companies like Meta, Apple, and Xiaomi, indicating a busy product release season [3][10] Group 2: Market Situation - The Hong Kong stock market saw an overall increase in June, with the Hang Seng Index rising from 23,290 points at the end of May to 24,284 points by June 27, marking a 4.3% increase [11] - The report indicates that the net inflow of southbound funds in June reached HKD 75 billion, with a significant increase in net inflow over the past 30 trading days [12] - Various sectors experienced different performance levels, with media, durable consumer goods, and technology hardware leading the gains, while consumer services and automotive sectors lagged [17] Group 3: Current Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading consumer companies like Pop Mart, which saw a significant increase in both domestic and international sales [23] - It suggests investing in growth-oriented energy companies such as China Qinfa, which has shown a substantial improvement in its balance sheet [28] - The report emphasizes the importance of real estate companies like Greentown China, which is leading the industry in land acquisition and sales [34] Group 4: Company-Specific Insights - Pop Mart reported a remarkable revenue growth of 165%-170% in Q1 2025, with international sales increasing by 475%-480% [23][24] - China Qinfa's net profit surged by 150.5% in 2024, primarily due to significant gains from loan restructuring [28][31] - Xiaomi Group achieved a record revenue of CNY 111.3 billion in Q1 2025, with a 47.4% year-on-year increase, driven by strong performance in both its smartphone and IoT segments [40][41] Group 5: Future Projections - The report projects that Pop Mart will achieve revenues of CNY 238 billion, CNY 308 billion, and CNY 361 billion from 2025 to 2027 [25] - China Qinfa is expected to see net profits of CNY 5.6 billion, CNY 10.4 billion, and CNY 15.4 billion over the same period [28] - Xiaomi's revenue is forecasted to reach CNY 4,867 billion, CNY 6,345 billion, and CNY 7,648 billion from 2025 to 2027, with a strong growth trajectory in its core business [40]

Group 1: Investment Strategy on Mid-Year Performance Clues - The report emphasizes that July and August are critical periods for A-share listed companies to disclose mid-year results, and performance clues may become a significant trading direction in the market [1][14] - Specific trading strategies are outlined based on empirical backtesting, focusing on selecting stocks with certain characteristics and optimal holding periods to achieve higher excess win rates and returns [1][14] - In early July, stocks showing month-on-month improvement or relatively high growth are highlighted, with a recommended holding period of 10 days for optimal performance [1][15] Group 2: July Mid-Month and Late Month Strategies - In mid-July, stocks with a price increase of over 5% and relatively high growth should be selectively chosen, as excess win rates peak on the third day after performance disclosure [2][14] - By late July, the strategy suggests that stocks with a price increase of over 5% do not require excessively high absolute growth rates, with a 10-day holding period being favorable [2][3] Group 3: August Performance and Selection Criteria - In early August, the number of stocks meeting selection criteria is limited, leading to higher volatility; a strategy combining relative high growth and a price increase of over 5% is recommended [3][14] - Mid-August strategies suggest a 5-day holding period for stocks with a price increase of over 5% and relatively high growth, with excess win rates improving significantly [3][14] - By late August, during the peak disclosure period, stricter selection criteria are advised, with a strategy yielding a 70% excess win rate for stocks with over 50% growth and a price increase of over 5% [4][14]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes that the period of July to August is crucial for A-share listed companies' interim report disclosures, and performance clues may become an important trading direction in the market [2][20] - The report outlines specific trading strategies based on performance characteristics of individual stocks, including holding periods and conditions for selecting stocks to achieve higher excess win rates and returns [2][20] - In early July, stocks with performance improvement or relatively high growth showed significant improvement, with excess win rates and excess returns increasing by 7% and 1.42% respectively for stocks with performance growth greater than 0% [2][21] Group 2 - In mid-July, stocks with a price increase greater than 5% and relatively high growth required careful selection after three days, with excess win rates increasing from 54% to 57% when performance absolute growth thresholds were relaxed [2][28] - In late July, the strategy of selecting stocks with a price increase greater than 5% while relaxing the absolute growth threshold led to a significant increase in excess win rates, with a preferred holding period of 10 days [2][4] - In early August, the number of eligible stocks was relatively low, and a "broad net" strategy could create average returns, but excessive volatility could impact overall performance [2][5] Group 3 - In mid-August, combining a price increase greater than 5% with relatively high growth conditions improved excess win rates significantly, with a preferred holding period of 5 days [2][5] - In late August, during the concentrated disclosure phase, stricter selection criteria led to better backtest performance, with a strategy of performance growth greater than 50% and a price increase greater than 5% achieving a 70% excess win rate [2][5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the environmental sector, including Huicheng Environmental, Gaoneng Environment, and Hongcheng Environment [4]. Core Insights - The green low-carbon construction is accelerating, presenting new opportunities in carbon footprint management. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has deployed urgent actions for product carbon footprint accounting and resource utilization standards, focusing on three major actions: standard innovation in green low-carbon industries, digital-green synergy, and updates in energy-saving and water-saving standards [1][23]. - The Sichuan provincial government has issued a plan for establishing a carbon footprint management system, with clear targets for 2027 and 2030, encouraging investment institutions to incorporate product carbon footprints into ESG and sustainable development due diligence [1][24]. Summary by Sections Investment Views - The report highlights the importance of focusing on companies with strong technical capabilities and excellent cash flow, particularly in the context of low macroeconomic interest rates. It recommends companies benefiting from carbon neutrality, such as high-energy waste leader Gaoneng Environment and Huicheng Environmental, which is entering the waste plastic recycling market [2][37]. - The report emphasizes that the environmental sector's institutional holdings and valuations are at historical lows, suggesting a potential rebound in the sector [37]. Market Performance - The environmental sector performed moderately, slightly outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index but underperforming the ChiNext Index. The sector's index rose by 1.92%, while the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.91% and the ChiNext Index by 5.69% [3][41]. - Sub-sectors within the environmental industry showed varied performance, with monitoring up by 8.52% and water treatment by 2.75% [3][41]. Key Companies - Huicheng Environmental is noted for its strong growth potential, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.0% in revenue and 22.7% in net profit from 2016 to 2024. The company is expanding its projects in water supply and wastewater treatment [4][38]. - Gaoneng Environment aims to become a global leader in environmental system services, focusing on hazardous waste resource utilization and environmental operation services [4][39]. - Hongcheng Environment is recognized for its stable growth and high dividend yield, with a projected cash dividend of 600 million yuan in 2024, representing 50.1% of its net profit [4][40].

另一个是"资资产" 可能的再现。今年资产供给前置，一半以上的政府债 券净融资在上半年，如果不新加预算，政府债券净融资月均同比多增量将 从上半年 7000 亿左右下降到下半年的负值，同时实际利率上升抑制非政 府债券社融。因而下半年资产供给节奏将放缓。但资金供给充足，这决定 配置力量旺盛。居民持续增加存款、保险、理财、货基债基等低风险偏好 资产配置。而央行主动和被动的也会增加资金投放，一方面上半年同比多 增的财政存款会在 3 季度左右投放，另一方面，央行对流动性呵护增强， 5 月以来资金投放增加。如果后续央行开启国债买卖，那么市场将进一步 向资产"的方向演进。 证券研究报告 | 固定收益年度策略 gszqdatemark 2025 06 30 年 月 日 年度策略 踏着熟悉的节奏——2025 年债市中期策略 2025 年上半年债市大幅波动，外部扰动明显加大。24 年底利率开启快速 下行，这在 25 年初延续，10 年国债一度突破 1.6%的低位。而后随着资 金的收紧，以及春节之后银行抛券压力的上升，市场开始了大幅调整。10 年国债最高一度达到 1.9%附近，而仅 30bps 的调整幅度也是长债 2023 年以来最 ...

Group 1: Company Overview - Zhongtung High-tech (000657.SZ) is a leading tungsten integrated giant backed by the Minmetals Group, completing a full industry chain layout from tungsten ore to powder, alloy, and tools, with global leading capacity levels [21][23]. - The company has benefited from the injection of the Shizhu Garden tungsten mine, which has filled resource gaps and contributed to non-tungsten revenue through by-products like fluorite, bismuth, and molybdenum [23]. - Revenue projections for Zhongtung High-tech are estimated at 15.6 billion, 16.5 billion, and 17.1 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of 1.08 billion, 1.24 billion, and 1.32 billion yuan, corresponding to PE ratios of 24.3, 21.3, and 20.0 times [23]. Group 2: Industry Insights - The tungsten market is expected to benefit from rising tungsten prices, with the company poised to gain from the steady progress of the Shizhu Garden tungsten mine expansion project [23]. - The PCB micro-drill business is identified as a significant growth driver for deep processing revenue [23]. - The overall performance of the tungsten industry is influenced by manufacturing growth rates and supply risks, which could impact future profitability [23].