证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 04 27 年 月 日 有色金属 美国关税政策松动，金价短期进入盘整期 黄金：短期或进入盘整期，中期仍具备上涨动能。近期黄金价格冲高回落，短期看：1）关 税缓和信号缓解市场避险情绪：当地时间周二，特朗普表示，在关税谈判期间他不会对中国 采取"强硬手段"，并"乐观"认为能够"相当迅速地"与之达成一项协议，"大幅下调"对 中国进口商品加征的 145%巨额关税；2）短期涨幅过高，多头获利了结；3）金价快速上涨 背景下，市场对央行购金的持续性产生担忧。中期来看，美国经济数据疲弱在特朗普超预期 的关税政策公布前已初现端倪，市场由特朗普胜选初期的"过热+通胀"逻辑转向滞涨。此 外，关税政策的不确定性对美国企业和消费者信心已造成冲击，未来不排除其经济数据进一 步走弱的可能。周内美联储理事沃勒公开讲话释放出对美国经济下行风险的担忧，表示""一 旦劳动力市场出现严重恶化，我预计会进一步降息，而且降息会更快。"建议关注：紫金矿 业、山东黄金、赤峰黄金、银泰黄金、招金矿业等。 工业金属：（1）铜：下游开工率提升，铜库存大幅回落。①宏观方面：特朗普关税态度缓 和后，市场 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 04 27 年 月 日 基础化工 AI4S 结合量子计算，化学研发的未来范式 量子计算：突破维度瓶颈，开启化学研发的范式革命。经典计算如同只看 着前方寻路，而量子计算是一种并行计算方式，如同俯视迷宫（增加维度）， 同时寻找各条路径上的"宝藏"，对于宝藏方位的把握能力自然大幅提升。 量子计算已经进入了软硬件全方位落地的黄金时代，成为全球科技争霸的 战略高地。根据 ICV 及光子盒，2035 年量子总产业规模有望达到 9089 亿 美元，届时量子计算将独占近九成空间，市场规模超过 8000 亿美元。 AI for Science：下一个超级应用。AI for Science（AI4S）即人工智能驱 动的科学研究，2024 年的英伟达 GTC 大会中，黄仁勋将大语言模型、具 身智能、AI4S 并列为 AI 三大关键方向。通过建立相应的 AI 垂类模型， AI4S 可以对产品配方进行优化、研发出升级迭代的新品、对测试结果进 行建模预测，为企业研发效率带来切实的大幅提升。数据和算法能在多维 复杂问题中比人脑更好地抓住规律，一方面，AI4S 可以由原子尺度深 ...

证券研究报告 | 季报点评 gszqdatemark 2025 04 27 年 月 日 汤臣倍健（300146.SZ） 经营压力释放，期待逐季向好 事件：公司发布 2025 年一季报，25Q1 实现营收 17.9 亿元，同比-32.3%； 实现归母净利润 4.5 亿元，同比-37.4%；实现扣非净利润 4.1 亿元，同比 -42.4%。 高基数及春节错期仍有压力，线下渠道客流量压力更大。25Q1 公司收入 增长仍有承压，我们认为主要受上年同期基数为全年较高、今年春节错期、 消费力偏弱且行业维持较高强度竞争影响。分渠道来看，25Q1 公司线上/ 线下收入同比-15.8%/-42.6%，线下渠道上年同期基数较高，且预计仍受 保健品行业整体线下渠道人流量承压、线上为主要增量渠道影响。分品牌 来看，25Q1 汤臣倍健主品牌/健力多/Life-spacce 国内/LSG 境外收入分别 同比-36.4%/-46.2%/-36.2%/+5.9%，线下占比较高的主品牌、健力多、 Life-spacce 国内收入增长压力较明显，而 LSG 境外表现相对稳健。 毛利率因产品结构及规模效应承压，费用管控效果逐步显现。25Q1 毛利 ...

证券研究报告 | 年报点评报告 gszqdatemark 2025 04 27 年 月 日 明阳电气（301291.SZ） 业绩稳定兑现，后续双海+数据中心有望贡献增量业绩 事件：公司发布 2024 年年度报告与 2025 年一季度报告。2024 年全年实现： 1）营收 64.44 亿元，同比+29.62%；归母净利润 6.63 亿元，同比+33.8%； 扣非归母净利润 6.54 亿元，同比+33.57%。2）毛利率 22.29%，同比-0.4pct； 净利率 10.28%，同比+0.22pct。3）期间费用率为 8.38%（（售 /管理/研发/ 财务费用率分别为 3.36%、2.05%、3.27%、-0.3%，同比分别变动-0.3，-0.55， +0.02，-0.18pct），同比-1.01pct。2025 年 Q1 实现：1）营收 13.06 亿元， 同比+26.21%，环比-44.53%；归母净利润 1.12 亿元，同比+25.01%，环比 -50.51%。扣非净利润为 1.1 亿元，同比+23.07%，环比-50.78%。2）毛利 率 21.78%，同比-5.59pcts。净利率 8.6%，同比-0. ...

Group 1: Macro Insights - The first quarter of 2025 saw industrial enterprises' profits turn positive for the first time in five months, supported by a decline in the base and strong production, although profit margins remain low due to falling factory prices [5] - The April Politburo meeting emphasized a strategic approach to the ongoing trade war, highlighting the need for proactive policy implementation and preparedness for changing circumstances [5] Group 2: Industry Performance - The agricultural sector showed a 6.2% increase in March, while the retail sector experienced a significant 25.0% growth over the past year, indicating strong consumer demand [2] - The power equipment sector faced a decline of 4.9% in March, reflecting ongoing challenges in the industry [2] Group 3: Company-Specific Insights - Shengnong Development (002299.SZ) is positioned as a leader in the white chicken industry, achieving higher profitability than the industry average, with a projected increase in performance due to self-sufficient breeding and a focus on both raw and cooked food segments [22] - China Power International Development is recommended for investment due to its improving cash flow and increasing profitability from renewable energy sources [4] Group 4: Market Trends - The coal market is expected to face pressure as iron production peaks, with a focus on the potential for price increases depending on import disruptions and government stimulus policies [29][31] - The real estate sector is being closely monitored for its recovery, with the Politburo's focus on urban renewal and the acquisition of existing properties to stabilize the market [32] Group 5: Technological Advancements - The integration of AI and quantum computing is set to revolutionize chemical research, with significant market potential projected for 2035 [24][25] - The demand for AI-driven solutions in various sectors, including automotive and data centers, is expected to grow, driven by advancements in technology and increased investment [41][42]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6] Core Views - The company has exceeded performance expectations with significant growth in offshore wind product profitability, driven by an increase in export orders and a strategic shift towards international markets [1][2][3] - The company is positioned as a leader in the offshore wind tower and pile market, with forecasts indicating substantial profit growth in the coming years [4] Financial Performance Summary - For the year 2024, the company reported revenue of 3.78 billion, a decrease of 12.6% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 474 million, an increase of 11.5% year-on-year [1] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 1.141 billion, a remarkable increase of 146.36% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders reached 231 million, up 335.91% year-on-year [1] - The gross margin for 2024 was 29.83%, an increase of 6.4 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 12.54%, up 2.7 percentage points year-on-year [1] Export and Market Strategy - The company has seen a significant increase in the proportion of revenue from export marine engineering products, with a gross margin of 38.5% for the year, reflecting a strategic pivot away from less profitable domestic operations [2] - The establishment of three major export marine engineering bases has been completed, targeting the global marine engineering market [2] New Energy Sector Growth - The new energy generation business reported revenue of 220 million, a growth of 64.0% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 78.5%, primarily driven by the profitability of a 250MW wind power project [3] - The company has plans for further development in the new energy sector, including a 1GW wind power project in Hebei [3] Future Profitability Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 898 million, 1.181 billion, and 1.514 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 19.5, 14.8, and 11.6 [4][5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key coal companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and Xinji Energy, while recommending "Overweight" for Pingmei Shenma and Huayang Co. [7][8] Core Viewpoints - The coal mining industry is focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvement amidst declining coal prices, with companies managing costs to stabilize profits [2][3] - The report indicates that the current coal prices are at a bottom level, suggesting a potential for recovery as domestic policies to stimulate growth and demand are expected to be reinforced [2][3] - The report emphasizes the importance of understanding the fundamental attributes of the industry and maintaining confidence in investment strategies [3] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The CITIC Coal Index was reported at 3,215.97 points, down 0.76%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 1.14 percentage points [2][78] - Active funds reduced their holdings in the coal sector, with a decrease of 0.38 percentage points to 0.44% by the end of Q1 2025, marking the lowest level since 2021 [2] Coal Price Trends - As of April 25, 2025, the price of Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal was reported at 665 CNY/ton, a decrease of 9 CNY/ton week-on-week [34] - The report notes that the current market is experiencing a weak demand phase, with power plants showing low procurement activity [34][35] Key Companies and Performance - Yancoal's Q1 2025 comprehensive coal cost was reported at 318 CNY/ton, down 12.9% year-on-year, while China Coal Energy's cost was 270 CNY/ton, down 7.3% [5] - The report highlights the performance of several companies, recommending investments in those showing resilience and potential for recovery, such as China Shenhua and Xinji Energy [7][8] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report indicates that the supply of thermal coal is currently stable, with minor fluctuations, while demand remains weak, primarily driven by non-electricity sectors [34][35] - The report also discusses the impact of recent policy changes in Indonesia affecting coal export tax rates, which may further influence supply dynamics [5][6] Focus on Coking Coal - The coking coal market is described as weak but stable, with prices under pressure due to cautious market sentiment and high inventory levels [37][55] - The report notes that the average profit per ton of coking coal has improved slightly, indicating a potential for recovery in the sector [55][56]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [6]. Core Views - The integrated stove industry is under pressure, leading to a decline in the company's profitability. In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 877 million, down 47.54% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 110 million, down 76.21% year-on-year [1][3]. - The company's gross margin decreased to 40.69% in 2024, a decline of 6.41 percentage points year-on-year, and the net profit margin fell to 12.46%, down 15.3 percentage points year-on-year [1][2]. - The report highlights the challenging market conditions, including a 30.6% year-on-year decline in the integrated stove market retail sales in China, with online sales down 38.84% [2]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company reported total revenue of 877 million, a decrease of 47.5% compared to 2023, and a net profit of 110 million, down 76.2% year-on-year [5]. - The forecast for 2025-2027 projects net profits of 128 million, 137 million, and 144 million respectively, indicating year-on-year growth rates of 16.1%, 7.0%, and 5.1% [3][5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected at 0.17, with a gradual increase to 0.22 by 2027 [5]. Industry Overview - The integrated stove industry is experiencing a downturn due to the real estate market's adjustment and a shift in consumer spending patterns, which favors lower-priced products [2]. - In contrast, the dishwasher market shows resilience, with a 17.2% year-on-year growth in retail sales in 2024, indicating a potential area of opportunity [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy (Maintain)" [6] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from new installed capacity and cost advantages, with significant growth potential in hydropower projects in the Dadu River basin [4][3] - The company's Q1 2025 performance aligns with expectations, showing a decline in revenue but an increase in net profit, driven by improved cash flow [1][2] Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 39.81 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.6%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.81 billion yuan, an increase of 1.5% [1] - The operating cash flow net amount was 14.026 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 92.8% [1] - The average on-grid electricity price in Q1 was 425.41 yuan per megawatt-hour, showing a slight decrease compared to the previous year [2] Installed Capacity and Growth Potential - As of March 31, 2025, the company's total installed capacity was 116.39 million kilowatts, with significant contributions from thermal, hydropower, wind, and solar energy [3] - The company plans to commission 1.365 million kilowatts of hydropower capacity in 2025 and 2.155 million kilowatts in 2026, indicating a robust growth trajectory [3] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Projected operating revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 183.90 billion yuan, 191.67 billion yuan, and 198.59 billion yuan, respectively, with expected year-on-year growth rates of 2.6%, 4.2%, and 3.6% [4][5] - The forecasted net profit attributable to shareholders for the same years is 7.65 billion yuan, 9.04 billion yuan, and 9.56 billion yuan, with corresponding EPS of 0.43 yuan, 0.51 yuan, and 0.54 yuan [4][5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key coal companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and Xinji Energy, while recommending "Overweight" for Pingmei Shenma and Huayang [7][8]. Core Insights - The coal mining industry is focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvement amidst declining coal prices, with companies managing costs to stabilize profits [2][3]. - The report highlights that the current coal prices are at a bottom level, suggesting that there is no need for pessimism, and the industry may benefit from China's policies aimed at stabilizing growth and expanding domestic demand [2][3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of understanding the fundamental attributes of the industry and maintaining confidence and determination [3]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The CITIC Coal Index was reported at 3,215.97 points, down 0.76%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 1.14 percentage points, ranking 27th among CITIC sectors [2][78]. - Active funds reduced their holdings in the coal sector to 0.44% by the end of Q1 2025, a decrease of 0.38 percentage points from Q4 2024, marking the lowest level since 2021 [2]. Coal Price Trends - As of April 25, 2025, the price of Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal was around 665 CNY/ton, a decrease of 9 CNY/ton week-on-week [34]. - The report indicates that the current market is experiencing a third round of price bottoming, driven by weak demand and high port inventories [2][34]. Key Company Performance - Yancoal's Q1 2025 comprehensive coal cost was reported at 318 CNY/ton, down 12.9% year-on-year, while China Coal Energy's cost was 270 CNY/ton, down 7.3% year-on-year [5]. - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong performance indicators, such as Xinji Energy and Shaanxi Coal, which are expected to perform well in the current market environment [7]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report notes that the supply of thermal coal is currently stable, with minor fluctuations, while demand remains weak, primarily driven by non-electric end-users [10][29]. - The report also highlights that the coking coal market is experiencing a weak and stable trend, with prices under pressure due to cautious market sentiment [37]. Future Outlook - The report suggests that the coal industry is expected to maintain a stable supply-demand balance, with potential for high-quality development amid ongoing structural reforms [36]. - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring key factors such as iron and steel production rates and macroeconomic policies that could influence coal demand in the future [51][55].