Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for Poly Property (6049.HK) [1][3][12] Core Views - Poly Property's 2024 revenue is projected to be 16.34 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 8.5%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 1.47 billion yuan, an increase of 6.8% [4][6] - The company plans to increase its dividend payout ratio to 50%, up by 10 percentage points from the previous year, reflecting a commitment to returning value to shareholders [6][7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company expects to achieve a revenue of 16.34 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.5% [5] - The net profit for 2024 is forecasted at 1.47 billion yuan, which is a 6.8% increase compared to the previous year [5] - The gross margin is projected to be 18.3%, while the net margin is expected to be 9.1% [5][10] Business Operations - The total managed area for 2024 is estimated at 800 million square meters, with a contract area of 990 million square meters, indicating a strengthening of scale advantages [6] - The proportion of third-party projects and non-residential types in the managed area is 65.4% and 60.9%, respectively, showing an optimized business mix [6] Growth Strategy - The company is focusing on enhancing community value-added services and has launched the "Oriental Courtesy" brand for high-end services [6] - In 2024, the revenue from third-party property management services is expected to account for 42.7% of total revenue, an increase of 1.6 percentage points year-on-year [6] Financial Projections - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is 2.66 yuan, with estimates for 2025 and 2026 at 2.84 yuan and 3.00 yuan, respectively [5][10] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to be 10.8 for 2024, decreasing to 9.2 by 2027 [10]

Group 1: PMI Overview - The composite PMI output index for China in March 2025 is 51.4%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month[1] - The manufacturing PMI index is 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points, marking the highest level since April 2024[6] - The service sector's business activity index rose by 0.3 percentage points to 50.3%[3] Group 2: Manufacturing Sector Insights - Manufacturing production index increased by 0.1 percentage points to 52.6%, indicating a recovery in production[3] - New orders index rose by 0.7 percentage points to 51.8%, reflecting stronger demand compared to production[6] - The prices in the manufacturing sector are declining, with the raw material purchase price index and factory price index dropping by 1.0 and 0.6 percentage points, respectively[11] Group 3: Employment and Confidence - The employment index in manufacturing fell by 0.4 percentage points, indicating a decline in workforce levels[3] - Manufacturing confidence and expectations are weakening, with the production activity expectation index dropping by 0.7 percentage points[11] - The construction sector's business activity index improved by 0.7 percentage points to 53.4%, the highest since June 2024[13] Group 4: Service Sector Performance - The service sector's business activity index increased by 0.3 percentage points to 50.3%, showing signs of recovery[14] - New orders and business activity expectation indices in the service sector improved, with new orders rising by 1.2 percentage points to 47.1%[14] - AI-related service industries are performing well, with telecom and software services showing significant growth[14]

证券研究报告 金融行业周报 ——上市银行年报营收降幅持续收敛，精细化监管持续推进 证券分析师 王维逸S1060520040001（证券投资咨询） 袁喆奇S1060520080003（证券投资咨询） 李冰婷S1060520040002（证券投资咨询） 韦霁雯S1060524070004（证券投资咨询） 许 淼S1060525020001（证券投资咨询） 研究助理 李灵琇S1060124070021（一般证券业务） 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 2025年3月31日 1 核心观点 上市银行年报营收降幅持续收敛，精细化监管持续推进 1、营收降幅持续收敛，拨备反哺平滑盈利。截至3月末，已有23家上市银行披露2024年年报，根据已披露年报23家上市银行口径， 24年全年上市银行实现净利润同比增长1.8%，增速较前三季度提升0.9pct。展望2025年，我们认为影响板块基本面的核心因素依 然来自国内经济修复进程，随着24年9月以来稳增长政策的密集出台，实体企业与个人有效需求的改善值得期待，但由于存量按 揭调降以及LPR的下行，预计25年行业资产端定价依旧承压，需要关注负债端存款利率调降后对于资产端的对冲幅度，整体而言 行业息 ...

聚力深耕，经营稳健 推荐（维持） 股价：11 港元 主要数据 | 行业 | 房地产 | | --- | --- | | 公司网址 | www.chinagreentown.com;www.gree | | | ntownchina.com | | 大股东/持股 | | | 实际控制人 | | | 总股本(百万股) | 2534.27 | | 流通 A 股(百万股) | 0 | | 流通 B/H 股(百万股) | 2534.27 | | 总市值（亿元） | 257.26 | | 流通 A 股市值(亿元) | 0 | | 每股净资产(元) | 14.33 | | 资产负债率(%) | 77.65 | 公 司 报 告 房地产 2025 年 03 月 31 日 绿城中国(3900.HK) 行情走势图 | 杨侃 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | --- | --- | | | S1060514080002 | | | BQV514 | | | YANGKAN034@pingan.com.cn | | 郑茜文 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | | S1060520090003 | | | ZHENGXIWEN239@pingan ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for Shanghai Pharmaceuticals [1][8][10] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 275.25 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.75%, and a net profit of 4.55 billion yuan, up 20.82% year-on-year [4][7] - The CSO business showed remarkable performance with a revenue increase of 177% to 8 billion yuan in 2024, highlighting its potential as a significant growth driver [7][8] - The pharmaceutical commercial segment is stable, with a projected revenue of 251.5 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a growth of 7.5% [7] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 297.93 billion yuan, 322.69 billion yuan, and 349.44 billion yuan, respectively, with expected growth rates of 8.2% and 8.3% [6][8] - Net profit forecasts for the same years are 5.42 billion yuan, 6.18 billion yuan, and 6.62 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 19.1%, 13.9%, and 7.2% [6][8] - The gross margin is expected to stabilize around 11% from 2025 onwards, while the net margin is projected to improve gradually [6][8] Business Segment Performance - The pharmaceutical industrial segment is expected to generate 30.5 billion yuan in revenue in 2024, with a growth rate of 29.7%, driven by innovative drugs and traditional Chinese medicine [7] - The company has established over 300 SPD projects, serving 129 medical institutions, enhancing its distribution network across the country [7] - The company’s strong state-owned background and comprehensive industry chain layout are expected to support its future growth [7][8]

房地产 2025 年 03 月 31 日 绿城管理控股(9979.HK) 公 司 报 告 规模领先，竞争加剧 推荐（维持） 股价：2.88 港元 主要数据 | 行业 | 房地产 | | --- | --- | | 公司网址 | www.lcgljt.com | | 大股东/持股 | 绿城中国/71.28% | | 实际控制人 | 国务院国有资产监督管理委会 | | 总股本(百万股) | 2010 | | 流通 A 股(百万股) | 0 | | 流通 B/H 股(百万股) | 2010 | | 总市值（亿港元） | 57.9 | | 流通 A 股市值(亿元) | 0 | | 每股净资产(元) | 1.90 | | 资产负债率(%) | 41.84 | 行情走势图 相关研究报告 【平安证券】绿城管理控股（9979.HK）*半年报点评* 业绩增速放缓，保持行业领先地位*推荐20240826 【平安证券】绿城管理控股（9979.HK）*年报点评*高 成长与高股息兼具，配置性价比凸显*推荐20240322 证券分析师 | 杨侃 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | --- | --- | | | S1060514080002 ...

Investment Rating - Industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][35] Core Viewpoints - The liquor market remains stable, with a focus on high-performing companies. Post-Spring Festival, liquor sales have been steady, with no significant changes compared to the previous period. The industry shows a clear Matthew effect, with core products performing well. It is expected that mainstream liquor companies will achieve single-digit positive growth in Q1 2025, providing some support for stock prices. Long-term demand recovery is anticipated with the implementation of consumer policies, although short-term tariff risks need to be monitored [6][4]. - In the food sector, the snack industry is experiencing a surge in new products, and investment opportunities in the snack and catering supply chain are recommended. The snack sector continues to benefit from channel and product advantages, while the catering industry is expected to stabilize and show slight recovery throughout the year [6][5]. Summary by Sections Liquor Industry - The liquor index (CITIC) has a cumulative increase of +0.23%. The top three performing stocks are: Jinshiyuan (+1.94%), Luzhou Laojiao (+1.24%), and Kweichow Moutai (+0.73%). The bottom three are: Yingjia Gongjiu (-3.05%), Huangtai Jiuye (-4.64%), and Yanshi Co. (-31.24%) [6]. - Recommended stocks include high-end liquor with strong demand such as Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao; next-tier liquor brands like Shanxi Fenjiu; and real estate liquor brands like Yingjia Gongjiu, Jinshiyuan, Laobai Gan Jiu, and Gujing Gong Jiu [6][4]. Food Industry - The food index (CITIC) has a cumulative decrease of -0.41%. The top three performing stocks are: Guangming Meat Industry (+13.02%), Jiahe Food (+6.44%), and Yanjinpuzi (+5.33%). The bottom three are: Xiwang Food (-7.24%), Lianhua Holdings (-9.29%), and Baiyang Co. (-12.25%) [6]. - Investment opportunities in the snack industry are highlighted, with companies like Three Squirrels and Yanjinpuzi recommended. The catering industry is expected to stabilize, with potential recovery, and related sectors such as beer, condiments, and frozen foods should be monitored [6][5]. Individual Company Insights - Kweichow Moutai expects a 15.44% increase in total revenue for 2024, with Q4 2024 revenue projected at 50.7 billion yuan, a 12.0% year-on-year increase [7]. - Wuliangye's revenue for Q3 2024 is 17.3 billion yuan, with a 1.4% year-on-year increase. The company plans to maintain a cash dividend of at least 70% of net profit for 2024-2026 [7]. - Luzhou Laojiao's Q3 2024 revenue is 7.4 billion yuan, with a 0.7% year-on-year increase. The company is focusing on its core brand and expanding its market presence [7]. - Shanxi Fenjiu's Q3 2024 revenue is 8.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.4%, with strong performance in mid-to-high-end products [7]. - Other companies such as Gujing Gong Jiu, Yingjia Gongjiu, and Jinshiyuan also maintain a "Recommended" rating based on their performance and market strategies [8][9].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In April, the large-cap style may dominate in the short term, while the mid-term trend of the growth style's dominance this year remains. It is recommended to appropriately reduce the allocation of equity assets, focus on large-cap, growth, and high-profit quality styles in the growth-value style, and pay attention to relatively stable "fixed income +" funds and short-duration bond funds [2]. Summary by Directory 3 - Month Review - **Stock Market**: A - shares showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.92% and the Sci - tech Innovation 50 falling 4.57%. U.S. stocks declined, with the Dow Jones Index down 5.15% and the Nasdaq Index down 8.09%. The technology sector in A - shares and Hong Kong stocks had a significant correction, and the dividend sector was relatively resilient. A - shares first rose and then fell, with the CSI 500 having a relatively large increase. Among styles, the mid - cap value style had the largest increase [8][13]. - **Bond Market**: Both U.S. Treasury and Chinese government bond yields increased. The 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield rose to 4.27%, and the 1 - year slightly decreased to 4.04%. In China, the 10 - year government bond yield rose to 1.81% and the 1 - year to 1.53%, with the term spread widening [8][18]. - **Foreign Exchange Market**: The U.S. dollar index declined to 104.03 due to weak U.S. consumer data. The RMB appreciated, with the on - shore exchange rate rising to 7.26 and the off - shore to 7.27 [22]. - **Commodity Market**: Crude oil prices increased due to geopolitical conflicts. Overseas commodity prices rose, while domestic ones fluctuated. Among domestic commodities, precious metals, non - ferrous metals, soft commodities, and energy prices increased, with precious metals having the largest increase, while chemical commodity prices had the largest decline [26]. - **Fund Market**: The fund market performed well in March, with the issuance scale increasing. As of March 28, the total fund issuance scale was 100.7 billion yuan, a 53% increase from the previous month. Equity - type funds' issuance scale was 34.7 billion yuan, an 11% increase from the previous month, accounting for 34% of the total issuance. Equity - type ETF and LOF funds had net outflows. Active equity funds increased their positions in quality and value - potential styles and reduced their positions in the prosperity style [33][39][40]. 4 - Month Outlook - **Asset Allocation Logic**: The stock - bond rotation model shows that the private - sector financing growth rate continued to decline in February, and the inflation factor decreased. The economic recovery trend remains to be observed. In the current macro - environment, the momentum factor has significant signal value. The A - share market sentiment index shows that the sentiment of being bullish on the equity market in the next month has fluctuated, and currently only the proportion of stocks hitting a one - year high and the margin balance remain bullish [2]. - **Style Rotation Models**: The growth - value style rotation model recommends the growth style, as the U.S. Treasury yield favors value, while the market factor and style momentum favor growth. The large - small - cap style rotation model recommends the large - cap style, as the credit environment and long - term style momentum favor small - caps, while the monetary environment and short - term style momentum favor large - caps [2]. - **Fund Allocation Strategy**: Given the current situation where the fundamentals have not reversed and market volatility has increased, it is recommended to appropriately reduce the allocation of equity assets. In the short term, the large - cap style may dominate in April, and the mid - term trend of the growth style's dominance this year remains. It is recommended to focus on large - cap, growth, and high - profit quality styles in the growth - value style. For "fixed income +" funds, focus on relatively stable varieties, and for bond funds, focus on short - duration varieties. Recommended funds include ICBC High - Quality Growth (009029.OF, medium - high risk), Anxin Advantage Growth (001287.OF, medium - high risk), Dongfanghong CSI Oriental Dividend Low - Volatility (012708.OF), BOC Stable Income (380009.OF, medium risk), and Penghua Stable Short - Term Bond (007515.OF) [2].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Recommended" [1][4][7] Core Views - The company's non-interest income has shown resilience, contributing to revenue recovery, while asset quality is improving [7][8] - The bank's total assets reached 3.33 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.78%, and loans increased by 8.21% [4][8] - The bank's net profit for 2024 was 15.2 billion yuan, reflecting a slight year-on-year increase of 0.92% [4][7] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved operating income of 67.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.19% [4][6] - The annualized weighted average ROE was 8.49%, down by 0.93 percentage points year-on-year [4][7] - The bank's net interest margin at the end of 2024 was 1.71%, with a loan yield of 4.45% [7][11] Asset Quality Summary - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio improved to 1.38% at the end of 2024, down 5 basis points from the previous quarter [8][10] - The provision coverage ratio remained stable at 179%, indicating a solid risk mitigation capacity [8][10] - The bank's credit impairment losses decreased by 5.6% year-on-year, reflecting improved asset quality management [9][10] Future Outlook - The bank's strategic focus on deepening its operations in Zhejiang province is expected to support stable growth in corporate and retail banking [7][8] - The forecast for earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 is adjusted to 0.57, 0.61, and 0.66 yuan, respectively, with corresponding profit growth rates of 3.7%, 5.9%, and 8.4% [7][10] - The bank's price-to-book (P/B) ratios for 2025-2027 are projected to be 0.45x, 0.42x, and 0.40x, respectively, indicating a favorable valuation relative to its improving asset quality [7][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company [1][8]. Core Viewpoints - The company demonstrates steady operational growth, with a projected revenue of 1.206 billion yuan for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.61%, and a net profit of 502 million yuan, up 1.96% year-on-year [3][4]. - The company is focusing on international expansion, with overseas sales expected to reach 164 million yuan in 2024, nearly doubling from the previous year, and is actively pursuing market entry in Europe, Latin America, and Asia [7][8]. - The company has maintained a strong product pipeline, with 12 new products approved domestically and internationally since 2024, enhancing its integrated solutions for aortic and peripheral vascular diseases [5][8]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the next few years are as follows: 1.206 billion yuan in 2024, 1.491 billion yuan in 2025, 1.909 billion yuan in 2026, and 2.409 billion yuan in 2027, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 1.6%, 23.6%, 28.1%, and 26.2% [4][12]. - Net profit is expected to grow from 502 million yuan in 2024 to 879 million yuan by 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 2.0%, 17.8%, 22.3%, and 21.5% [4][12]. - The gross margin is projected to decline slightly from 73.0% in 2024 to 67.4% in 2027, while the net margin is expected to decrease from 41.6% to 36.5% over the same period [12]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is a leading player in the domestic aortic and peripheral vascular intervention market, with a strong market share and ongoing product launches [8]. - The company is enhancing its product line through innovation and strategic partnerships, including the acquisition of Lombard Medical to strengthen its presence in the European and Japanese markets [7][8].