2024 年 3 月 13 日 通胀再度反弹，核心压力难纾—美国 2 月 CPI 点评 蔡瑞, CFA Carl.Cai@bocomgroup.com (852) 3766 1808 李少金 Evan.Li@bocomgroup.com (852) 3766 1849 住房通胀缓解，但总体滞后性仍较强。继 1 月住房通胀大幅上涨后，2 月 住房通胀环比有所放缓。上月业主等价租金（OER）大幅上涨可能主要源 于美国劳工部对数据源权重的调整，但后续可能仍会有此种偏差效应，且 住房服务通胀总体滞后性仍较强，持续拖累核心通胀回落进程。 再超预期的通胀数据对降息预期影响相对有限。利率期货市场隐含 5 月降息 25 基点概率为 14.2%，而 CPI 数据公布前为 17.9%；6 月降息 25 基点的概率为 60.8%，与 CPI 数据公布前相差不大。市场押注 2024 年全年降息在 3-4 次。 此报告最后部分的分析师披露、商业关系披露和免责声明为报告的一部分，必须阅读。 下载本公司之研究报告，可从彭博信息：BOCM 或 https://research.bocomgroup.com 资料来源:Macrobond、美国 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a **Neutral** rating to JD (JD US) [2] Core Views - JD's Q4 2023 performance exceeded expectations, with revenue surpassing both the report's and Bloomberg consensus estimates by 2% and adjusted net profit exceeding expectations by 28%/16% [33] - Total revenue grew 4% YoY, with JD Retail revenue increasing by 3% [33] - Adjusted net profit reached RMB 8.4 billion, with a net profit margin of 2.7%, up 10 basis points YoY, driven by platform ecosystem development and supply chain advantages [33] - Retail operating profit margin declined by 40 basis points to 2.6% due to adjustments in free shipping thresholds [33] - For 2023, total revenue grew 4% YoY, with a net profit margin of 3.2%, up 50 basis points YoY [33] - Management reiterated the 2024 target of retail GMV and revenue growth exceeding the social retail growth rate (6%), with group profit and retail operating profit expected to at least remain flat [34] - The report expects high single-digit growth in the large supermarket category in 2024, following the completion of business adjustments [34] - Retail profit margin is expected to decline by 50 basis points to 3.75% due to lower shipping thresholds, employee salary increases, and Spring Festival Gala investments [34] - The report raised the 2024 revenue forecast by 2% and slightly adjusted group net profit, maintaining a 10x 2024 retail P/E valuation and adjusting the target price to USD 28/HKD 109 (JD US/9618 HK, previously USD 30/HKD 115) [34] - The stock price rose 16% post-earnings, reflecting better-than-expected results and shareholder returns, but the report maintains a Neutral rating due to long-term industry competition and limited retail profit growth potential [34] Financial Performance Q4 2023 Highlights - Low-tier city users accelerated growth, with order volume/consumption frequency growing at double-digit rates, faster than the overall user base [1] - Product revenue increased 4% YoY, with electronics and home appliances growing 6%, exceeding the expected 1%, and continuing to gain market share [1] - Non-electronics categories turned positive, with supermarket categories bottoming out and home decor, sports, and apparel achieving double-digit growth [1] - Advertising and commission revenue decreased 5% YoY (excluding Dada impact), with commission revenue declining double digits due to new merchant incentives and category-specific commission reductions [1] - The company distributed USD 1.2 billion in cash dividends (dividend yield of 3.6%) and approved a new USD 3 billion share repurchase plan [1] Financial Metrics - Revenue for 2023 reached RMB 1,084.7 billion, up 3.7% YoY, with net profit of RMB 40.4 billion, up 43.8% YoY [11] - EPS for 2023 was RMB 25.50, up 43.8% YoY [11] - Adjusted EBITDA margin for 2023 was 4.4%, with an adjusted net profit margin of 3.7% [11] - For 2024E, revenue is expected to grow 8.5% YoY to RMB 1,176.9 billion, with net profit expected to decline 9.6% YoY to RMB 36.5 billion [11] - The P/E ratio for 2024E is 7.8x, with a P/B ratio of 0.99x [11] Q4 2023 Detailed Performance - Total revenue grew 4% YoY to RMB 306.1 billion, exceeding the Bloomberg consensus estimate of RMB 299.9 billion [14] - Product revenue grew 4% YoY to RMB 246.5 billion, with electronics revenue up 6% YoY to RMB 150.4 billion [14] - Service revenue grew 3% YoY to RMB 59.6 billion, with advertising revenue declining 4% YoY to RMB 23.6 billion [14] - Adjusted operating profit declined 30% QoQ but grew 7% YoY to RMB 7.8 billion, with an adjusted operating profit margin of 2.5% [14] - Adjusted net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders grew 10% YoY to RMB 8.4 billion, exceeding the report's expectation by 27% [14] Industry and Competitive Landscape - The report highlights JD's focus on user growth and market share expansion in 2024, with potential fluctuations in profit margins [10] - The company's strategy revolves around enhancing user experience and increasing market share, which may lead to margin compression [34] - The report notes that JD's performance in low-tier cities and its ability to gain market share in electronics and home appliances are key strengths [1][14] - However, the competitive landscape remains intense, with long-term retail profit growth potential under scrutiny [34]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, Kingsray Biotech (1548 HK), with a target price of HKD 27.75, indicating a potential upside of 78.8% from the current closing price of HKD 15.52 [1][10]. Core Insights - The company demonstrated resilience in its performance during 2023, with revenues reaching USD 840 million, a year-on-year increase of 34.2%, aligning closely with previous expectations [1]. - Adjusted net loss for 2023 was USD 298 million, significantly better than the anticipated loss of USD 395 million, showcasing improved operational efficiency [1]. - The overall gross margin stood at 48.8%, exceeding the forecast of 46.5%, primarily driven by the rapid improvement in the gross margin of the cell therapy segment [1]. - The report anticipates a recovery in the company's CDMO business in 2024, supported by a gradual improvement in overseas financing and accelerated market expansion [1]. Revenue Performance and Guidance - Non-cell therapy business segments showed robust growth, with life sciences services generating external revenue of USD 405 million, up 16% year-on-year, slightly exceeding expectations [2]. - The report provides guidance for 2024, projecting a revenue growth of 15-20% for life sciences services, with gross margins stabilizing around 55% [2]. - The cell therapy segment is expected to achieve peak sales of at least USD 5 billion for cilta-cel, with production capacity anticipated to double by the end of 2025 [2]. Financial Projections - The report slightly adjusts revenue forecasts for 2024 and 2025 down by 0.6% and 0.5%, respectively, but reduces the net loss forecast for 2024 by 4% and increases the net profit forecast for 2025 from USD 940 million to USD 1.48 billion [2]. - The introduction of 2026 profit forecasts estimates revenue at USD 2.16 billion, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 37% from 2023 to 2026 [2]. Valuation and Target Price - The report employs a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation method, leading to a target price of HKD 27.75, maintaining the "Buy" rating [2][8]. - The valuation breakdown indicates that the cell therapy segment contributes significantly to the overall target valuation, accounting for 69% of the total [8].

此报告最后部分的分析师披露、商业关系披露和免责声明为报告的一部分，必须阅读。 下载本公司之研究报告，可从彭博信息：BOCM 或 https://research.bocomgroup.com 交银国际研究 行业剖析 行业评级 2024年3月11日 光伏逆变器行业 领先 储能第二成长曲线已至，拉开逆变器新序章  储能第二曲线爆发下逆变器成长性高于光伏其他环节且确定性高：逆变器 行业与大盘一年趋势图 是光伏发电系统中唯一具备高度智能化处理功能的设备，其性能对发电量 行业表现 恒生指数 影响较大。相比光伏制造其他环节，我们认为逆变器同质化较低，可维持 10% 5% 较高的利润率，同时随着新能源发电量占比快速提升和储能成本大幅下降 0% -5% ，储能需求快速爆发，逆变器还拥有储能这一第二成长曲线，成长性更高 -10% -15% ，且无技术路线风险，因此是难得具确定性的长期成长赛道，尽管未来竞 -20% -25% 争或加剧，但龙头企业仍可以量补价实现业绩持续增长。 -30% -35% -40%  光储装机爆发推动逆变器需求快速增长，储能占比提高推升单位毛利：在 3/23 7/23 11/23 光伏新增装机、存量项 ...

交银国际研究 公司更新 消费 收盘价 目标价 潜在涨幅 2024年3月11日 港元3.76 港元3.40↓ -9.6% 中国飞鹤 (6186 HK) 下半年销售额和利润率下滑，导致 2023 年净利润不及预期  2023年净利润远低于市场一致预期：飞鹤预计净利润为31.3-34.3亿元人民 个股评级 币，同比下降31-37%（低于市场一致预期的-9%），对应2023年下半年净 中性 利润同比下降31-43%（远低于市场一致预期的+12.5%）。2023年收入同比 下降 6.7-9.5%至 193.0-198.8 亿元人民币（低于市场一致预期的同比增长 +2%），对应2023年下半年同比下降13-18%（远低于市场一致预期的同比 1年股价表现 增长+2%），2023年下半年收入低于预期。这意味着2023 年下半年的净利 6186 HK 恒生指数 润率为15-17%，延续了上半年（净利润率为17.4%）的疲软态势，而非市 5% 0% 场预期的恢复至2022年约23-24%的水平。 -5% -10% -15%  国标过渡后竞争比预期激烈：飞鹤将其疲软的业绩归因于“中国出生人口 -20% -25% 下降及行业竞争 ...

2 月非农新增就业数据仍强劲，但前两月数据大幅下修。美国 2 月非农新 增就业 27.5 万人，仍超预期 20 万人。此前两月数据大幅下修，2023 年 12 月就业人数在上月大幅上修至 33.3 万人后，于本月再下修至 29 万人；1 月 新增就业由 35.3 万人大幅下修至 22.9 万人。修正后，前两月新增就业合计 下修 16.7 万人。我们在上月报告曾提及 1 月新增就业大超预期可能一定程 度受季节性招聘变化影响，特别是零售商在假期裁员的数量低于预期。2 月新增就业仍较为强劲，反映企业仍在积极招聘。 就业失业齐升，薪资增速放缓—美国 2 月非农就业点评 行业分布上，2 月新增就业主要在医疗健康、政府等宏观敏感度不高的行 业。医疗健康（+6.7 万人）高于过去 12 个月平均的 5.8 万人。政府（+5.2 万人）与过去 12 个月平均的 5.3 万人相当。食品（+4.2 万人），社会救助 （+2.4 万人），建筑（+2.3 万人）变化不大，而专业及商业服务就业大幅 下降了 3.1 万人。 薪资增速明显降温，工作时长略有增加。2 月平均时薪同比增速回落至 4.3%，低于预期4.4%；时薪环比增速降至0. ...

交银国际研究 公司更新 互联网 收盘价 目标价 潜在涨幅 2024年3月7日 港元8.11 港元9.50↓ +17.1% 京东物流 (2618 HK) 4 季度内单带动业绩超预期；2024 年收入展望弱于预期，下调至中性  4季度内单增长好于预期，规模效应带动利润超预期：收入高于我们/彭博 个股评级 一致预期2%，利润大幅超出我们预期124%。总收入472亿元（人民币， 买入 下同），同比增10%，其中外部收入增9%，同比贡献总收入70%。收入超 预期主要来自内单收入增长，外部收入符合预期。客户结构调整和规模效 应推动毛利率同比提升35个基点至9.2%。调整后净利润/利润率达18亿 1年股价表现 元/3.8%，同比增80%/1.5个百分点，得益于业务结构持续优化及运营效率 2618 HK 10% MSCI中国指数 提升。2023年全年收入1,666亿元，同比增21%，调整后净利率1.7%，高 0% 于此前指引的0.6-1%区间。 -10% -20%  业绩要点：1）内单加速增长，同比增11%（对比3季度+8%），得益于京 -30% -40% 东零售调整包邮门槛持续拉动业务量。2）外部一体化收入同比增5%， ...

交银国际研究 公司更新 互联网 收盘价 目标价 潜在涨幅 2024年3月8日 美元10.60 美元13.00 +22.6% 哔哩哔哩 (BILI US) 游戏下半年可见性增强，2024 年 3 季度或实现扭亏为盈，维持买入 个股评级  4季度业绩符合预期，全年经营现金流转正。哔哩哔哩2023年4季度收入 为63亿元人民币（下同），同/环比增3%/9%，符合我们/市场预期。调整 买入 后归母净亏损为5.6亿元，同/环比收窄58%/36%，对比我们/市场预期的 5.7亿元/6.5亿元，主要受益于毛利率提升（同比+6/环比+1百分点至26% 1年股价表现 ）。全年首次实现正向经营现金流2.7亿元。 BILI US  4季度业绩概览：1）广告/VAS收入维持快速增长，分别同比增28%/22% 23 00 %% MSCI中国指数 ，效果广告同比增60%+ 。2）交易场景成为广告收入增长的主要支撑之一 10% 0% ，2023年全年电商带货GMV 100亿元，日均2600万用户观看带货内容， -10% -20% 渗透率26%，4季度日均超6万UP主参与带货。3）DAU/日均视频观看量 -30% 同比增8%/10%，较 ...

收盘价 目标价 潜在涨幅 美元 107.92 美元 135.00 +25.1% 网易 (NTES US) 4 季度业绩不及预期。收入同比增 7%至 271 亿元（人民币，下同），较我 们及市场预期低 4%，调整后净利润增 53%至 74 亿元，较我们及市场预期 低 7%，主要因游戏收入低于预期（5%），以及游戏推广投入增加所致。 游戏/增值服务/有道/云音乐收入同比+12%/-12%/+2%/-16%，有道及云音乐 收入增长及盈利能力提升趋势符合预期。游戏及增值服务毛利润率为 69.5%，环比提升 50bps。 营销推广费用同比增 24%，占收比为 15.6%，环 比/同比均有2个百分点的提升，主要与《蛋仔派对》应对竞争在竞品上线 前增加投放所致。 4 季度要点：手游/端游收入同比+29%/-23%，手游收入增长主要受《逆水 寒》及《蛋仔派对》带动，较预期低的原因或与季节性波动及收入摊销周 期差异所致，端游收入受代理终止的影响，预计 2024 年影响结束。 《蛋 仔派对》春节期间 DAU 突破 4000 万，日均流水超过 1 月的 2 倍，与竞品 拉开差距，证明营销投入带来可观回报，作为大DAU游戏，《蛋仔派 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of USD 5.60, indicating a potential upside of 52.6% from the current price of USD 3.67 [2][15]. Core Insights - The company's Q4 2023 revenue was RMB 7.7 billion, slightly exceeding expectations, with a year-on-year growth of 1% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 4% [2]. - Adjusted operating profit for Q4 2023 was RMB 979 million, which was 3% higher than expectations, resulting in an adjusted operating profit margin of 12% [2]. - The company is experiencing a continuous improvement in Average Revenue per Member (ARM), which increased by 13% year-on-year and 3% quarter-on-quarter, despite a decrease in the number of members [2][7]. Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected to be RMB 31.87 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 9.9% [3]. - Net profit for 2023 is expected to reach RMB 2.84 billion, reflecting a significant recovery from a loss in the previous year [3]. - The company anticipates a continued increase in adjusted operating profit to RMB 4.7 billion by 2024, with a corresponding increase in earnings per share [3][13]. Membership and Advertising Insights - Membership revenue for Q4 2023 was RMB 4.8 billion, with a slight year-on-year increase of 1% [2]. - Advertising revenue for Q4 2023 was RMB 1.7 billion, showing a year-on-year growth of 6%, primarily driven by brand advertising [2]. - The overseas market showed strong performance, with a 20% year-on-year increase in overseas advertising revenue, and membership revenue in regions like Japan and Hong Kong growing by over 80% [2]. Cost Management and Profitability - Content costs accounted for 48% of total revenue in Q4 2023, with ongoing efforts to optimize these costs leading to improved gross margins [12]. - The company is expected to maintain a focus on cost control and content optimization, which is anticipated to enhance profitability in the long term [2][12].