Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate-A/Accumulate-H" rating for the company [3]. Core Views - The company is expected to reduce losses in 2024, with a projected net loss of RMB 1.6 to 2.4 billion, while the demand for civil aviation continues to recover, leading to a 21% increase in passenger traffic to 155 million [8][21]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the upcoming Spring Festival travel peak and a long-term improvement in supply-demand dynamics, with profit margins expected to rise in the coming years [8][54]. - The report anticipates a significant recovery in profitability from 2025 onwards, with projected net profits of RMB 7.9 billion and RMB 17.5 billion for 2025 and 2026, respectively [54]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2022A: RMB 52.898 billion - 2023A: RMB 141.1 billion - 2024E: RMB 170.453 billion - 2025E: RMB 194.403 billion - 2026E: RMB 216.65 billion - Growth Rate: 2023A to 2024E is 20.8% [2]. - **Net Profit Forecast**: - 2022A: RMB -38.619 billion - 2023A: RMB -1.046 billion - 2024E: RMB -0.196 billion - 2025E: RMB 7.939 billion - 2026E: RMB 17.536 billion - Growth Rate: 2024E to 2025E is 4148% [2]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2022A: -2.81 - 2023A: -0.07 - 2024E: -0.01 - 2025E: 0.45 - 2026E: 1.01 [2]. - **Valuation Metrics**: - Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio for 2025 is projected at 16.95 for A-shares and 7.67 for H-shares [2]. Operational Performance - The company achieved a passenger transport volume of 155 million in 2024, a 21% increase year-on-year, with an overall seat occupancy rate of 79.8% [8][9]. - The company’s fleet size increased to 930 aircraft by the end of 2024, reflecting a growth of 2.76% [9]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights a favorable supply-demand environment for the airline industry, with expectations of improved pricing power due to regulatory measures and a recovery in business travel demand [28][50]. - The average ticket price for the company is projected to decline by 15.5% in 2024 compared to 2023, but is expected to rebound in subsequent years as the market stabilizes [28][33].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Hold" [2] Core Views - The construction materials industry is experiencing a downturn, with companies reporting significant declines or losses in their 2024 earnings forecasts. This is attributed to the industry's bottoming out in 2024, characterized by weak profitability in cement and fiberglass, and continuous price declines in float glass. However, the report anticipates a recovery in 2025, driven by improved retail demand and a gradual release of uncertainty in earnings [7][16]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Price Stability and Earnings Forecast Risks - Construction material companies are releasing 2024 earnings forecasts, showing widespread declines or losses due to the industry's downturn. The report suggests that 2025 may be a year of stabilization, with retail construction materials recovering first and risks related to historical receivables gradually diminishing [16]. Section 2: Consumer Building Materials - Policies are continuously supporting the sector, with retail construction materials showing early signs of recovery. Leading companies exhibit strong operational resilience. The long-term demand for consumer building materials remains stable, with significant growth potential for quality leaders in the sector [7]. Section 3: Cement - The national cement market price has decreased by 0.1% week-on-week. As of January 17, the average cement price is 411 RMB/ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 40.17%. The report highlights that the industry valuation is at historical lows, with a positive outlook for companies like Conch Cement and Huaxin Cement [7]. Section 4: Glass - The trading atmosphere for float glass is acceptable, while photovoltaic glass transactions are average. As of January 17, the average price for float glass is 1392 RMB/ton, down 31.7% year-on-year. The report indicates that leading glass companies are undervalued, with a favorable outlook for companies like Xinyi Glass and Shandong Yaobang [7]. Section 5: Fiberglass and Carbon-Based Composites - The market price for fiberglass remains stable, with electronic yarn prices holding steady. The report notes that the fiberglass sector is experiencing a bottoming out, with leading companies showing significant advantages. Companies like China Jushi and Zhongtai Technology are highlighted as having strong potential [7].

Group 1 - Industry investment rating is "Buy" with expectations of stock performance exceeding the market by more than 10% over the next 12 months [2][9] - The report highlights the implementation of the "Interim Measures for the Supervision and Administration of Microfinance Companies," which emphasizes the retail nature of the industry and sets specific limits on loan amounts and borrower concentration [5][6] - Key changes include a reduction in the maximum loan amount for individual consumer loans from RMB 300,000 to RMB 200,000, and for business loans, the limit is set at RMB 1 million for production and operation purposes [5][6] Group 2 - The report indicates that microfinance companies must adhere to stricter regulations regarding loan concentration, with limits set at 10% of net assets for individual borrowers and 15% for related parties [5][6] - The joint lending model between microfinance companies and commercial banks is further clarified, requiring that the microfinance company's contribution to any loan must be at least 30% [5][6] - Financing leverage for microfinance companies is capped at 5 times their net assets, with specific limits on non-standard and standard financing methods [5][6] Group 3 - The report provides a valuation and financial analysis of key companies in the diversified finance sector, including stock prices, ratings, and expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 and 2025 [6] - Companies such as Dongfang Caifu and Tonghuashun are rated "Buy" and "Increase," with reasonable values set at CNY 27.40 and CNY 250.90 respectively [6] - The report includes detailed financial metrics such as PE ratios and ROE percentages for various companies, indicating strong performance expectations [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry [2]. Core Insights - Vertex Pharmaceuticals has made significant advancements in the pain and kidney disease sectors, with promising products like the Nav1.8 inhibitor Suzetrigine and the dual antagonist Povetacicept [7][21]. - The global pain management market is projected to reach $78.12 billion in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.59% until 2027 [28]. - The collaboration between Vertex and Zai Lab for Povetacicept is expected to accelerate the development of treatments for IgA nephropathy in China [7][21]. Summary by Sections Vertex Company Overview and Recent Updates - Vertex, established in 1989, focuses on innovative drug development, particularly in rare and severe diseases, with a strong presence in cystic fibrosis (CF) [16]. - The company reported nearly $10 billion in revenue for 2023, with 90% derived from CF treatments like Trikafta/Kaftrio [16][17]. Pain Management Sector: Nav1.8 as a Key Target - The Nav1.8 target is emerging as a crucial non-addictive pain relief option, addressing the addiction issues associated with opioid medications [36]. - The global opioid market is expected to reach $23.94 billion in 2024, highlighting the need for safer alternatives [33]. Product Development: Suzetrigine and Clinical Trials - Suzetrigine (VX-548) has shown promising results in clinical trials for acute pain, with a PDUFA date set for January 30, 2025 [40][46]. - Clinical trials demonstrated significant pain relief compared to placebo, with Suzetrigine achieving primary endpoints in both abdominal and bunionectomy surgeries [51]. Kidney Disease Sector: Povetacicept's Potential - Povetacicept has shown clinical potential for treating IgA nephropathy, with Vertex's collaboration with Zai Lab expected to enhance its development in China [7][21]. - The drug demonstrated a 66% average reduction in urinary protein in clinical trials, indicating strong efficacy [7]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on domestic companies with established experience in pain and kidney disease treatments, including Hengrui Medicine, Haisco Pharmaceutical, and others [7].

[Table_Page] 跟踪分析|保险Ⅱ 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 保险Ⅱ行业 12 月保费点评-25 年寿险行业景气度有望 | 保险Ⅱ行业:预定利率动态调 | 2025-01-11 | | --- | --- | | 整机制出台，降低利差损风 | | | 险 | | | 保险Ⅱ行业:11 月行业保费点 | 2024-12-27 | | 评-人身险行业转战开门红， | | | 财险保费增速小幅走扩 | | | 保险Ⅱ行业:"偿二代"过渡 | 2024-12-22 | | 期延长，缓解偿付能力压力 | | 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 1 / 5 [Table_Contacts] 上市险企寿险单月保费增速分化明显，预计主因全年收官和开门红节 奏的差异。据月度保费公告数据显示，1-12 月的平安/国寿/新华/太保 寿险原保费同比增速分别为 7.6%/4.7%/2.8%/2.4%，较 1-11 月的 8.5%/4.8%/2.1%/2.2%有所分化，2024 年全年实现了较好的正增长， 其中太保和新华 12 月单月保费增速较高，分别为+8.9%、19.1%，推 动累计保费增速小幅走扩 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Anta Sports, with a current price of HKD 78.10 and a fair value of HKD 93.67 [5]. Core Views - Anta Sports has demonstrated high operational quality in Q4, with Fila's sales recovery exceeding expectations. The main brand's revenue growth is driven by e-commerce channels and store renovations, maintaining a healthy inventory turnover ratio [8]. - The multi-brand strategy of Anta Group is showing robust development, with strong performance from brands like Descente and Kolon, indicating strong consumer purchasing power in the outdoor market [8]. - The earnings forecast for Anta Sports predicts EPS of RMB 4.70, RMB 4.81, and RMB 5.38 for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with a PE valuation of 18 times for 2025, leading to a fair value of HKD 93.67 per share [8]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 53,651 million in 2022 to RMB 81,594 million in 2026, with growth rates of 8.8%, 16.2%, 8.1%, 9.7%, and 10.4% respectively [4][10]. - EBITDA is expected to increase from RMB 12,483 million in 2022 to RMB 26,330 million in 2026 [4]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to rise from RMB 7,590 million in 2022 to RMB 15,187 million in 2026, with growth rates of -1.68%, 34.86%, 29.60%, 2.26%, and 11.94% [4][10]. - The report indicates a stable gross margin, with projections of 58.2% in 2022 and increasing to 62.9% by 2026 [10]. Operational Insights - The main brand's operational quality is expected to remain stable, with online discounts maintained and a healthy inventory turnover ratio [8]. - The report highlights the successful adjustment of Fila's brand positioning, contributing to overall brand growth and maintaining healthy operational quality [8]. Market Position - Anta Sports is positioned to benefit from its strong channel management capabilities and cost control, which are expected to support steady growth in an uncertain retail environment [8].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a current price of 26.13 CNY and a fair value of 29.38 CNY [3]. Core Views - The company has exceeded expectations in both revenue and profit, with a projected annual revenue of approximately 1 billion CNY for 2024, marking a significant growth from the previous year [7]. - The company is focusing on the development of its IP business, capitalizing on the growing demand for offline experiential consumption in the domestic market [7]. - The report highlights the strong performance of the gaming equipment sector and the ongoing development of self-researched card machines, which are expected to maintain a positive trend in 2025 [7]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: The company is expected to achieve revenues of 816 million CNY in 2023, 1.008 billion CNY in 2024, and 1.154 billion CNY in 2025, reflecting growth rates of 35.0%, 23.4%, and 14.6% respectively [2]. - **Net Profit**: The projected net profit for 2024 is between 80 million and 92 million CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 53.97% to 77.07% [7]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: EPS is expected to improve from -0.49 CNY in 2022 to 0.35 CNY in 2023, and further to 0.58 CNY in 2024 [2]. - **Valuation Metrics**: The company is projected to have a P/E ratio of 66.86 in 2023, decreasing to 27.31 by 2026 [2]. Business Development - The company is actively expanding its customer base and enhancing the commercial value of its IP products, which include gaming products and anime-related merchandise [7]. - There is a strong emphasis on product iteration and market promotion, which is expected to significantly expand the business scale [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the media industry [5]. Core Insights - The report highlights the significant advancements in AI technology, particularly with OpenAI's new features, which are expected to enhance the capabilities of AI applications across various sectors [5]. - It emphasizes the potential of AI to empower industries such as gaming, marketing, education, and film, suggesting a focus on companies that are well-positioned to leverage these advancements [5]. Summary by Sections Domestic AI Dynamics Tracking - Recent data shows that the domestic AI large model products have maintained stable web traffic, with Douyin Doubao leading in visits, followed by Kimi and Wenxin Yiyan [11]. - The average daily time spent on platforms like Tiangong AI is around 5 minutes, indicating user engagement levels [11]. - The report provides specific web traffic data for major AI products, with Kimi receiving 735.68 million visits, a decrease of 13.99% week-on-week, while Tencent Yuanbao saw a 19.41% increase [21]. Overseas AI Dynamics Tracking - OpenAI has introduced new features that mark a significant step towards advanced AI agents, enhancing user interaction capabilities [5]. - The report tracks web traffic for overseas AI products, noting that ChatGPT continues to lead in visits, while other models like LLaMa and Claude have seen increases [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies in gaming, marketing, education, and film that are likely to benefit from AI advancements. Specific companies mentioned include Tencent Holdings, NetEase, and Huace Film & TV [5]. - It highlights the potential for AI to improve content generation efficiency in marketing and enhance educational tools through better knowledge comprehension [5].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a current price of 5.68 HKD and a fair value of 6.71 HKD [7]. Core Insights - The main brand of the company is experiencing steady growth, with a healthy recovery in inventory levels. In Q4 2024, the main brand's total channel revenue is expected to grow at a high single-digit percentage year-on-year, with retail discounts improving to a level of 70-75% [7]. - The subsidiary brand, Saucony, continues to show strong growth momentum, with total channel revenue in Q4 2024 expected to increase by approximately 50%, surpassing the previous guidance of over 60% for the entire year [7]. - The company forecasts net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 to be 1.26 billion, 1.39 billion, and 1.51 billion CNY respectively, and maintains a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 12 for 2025, leading to a fair value estimate of 6.71 HKD per share [7]. Financial Summary - The company's main revenue for 2023 is reported at 12,930 million CNY, with a growth rate of 29.1%. The EBITDA is projected to be 1,515 million CNY, and the net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 922 million CNY, reflecting a growth rate of 1.5% [6]. - For the years 2024 to 2026, the main revenue is expected to be 14,396 million CNY, 15,077 million CNY, and 16,462 million CNY respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 0.4%, 4.7%, and 9.2% [6]. - The report indicates that the company's return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 11.0%, 11.6%, 13.1%, 13.5%, and 13.8% from 2022 to 2026 [6].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [3] Core Views - In December 2024, the year-on-year growth of social retail sales was 3.7%, continuing a mild recovery trend. The total retail sales amounted to CNY 4.52 trillion, with a 0.7 percentage point increase compared to November. Excluding automobiles, the retail sales of consumer goods reached CNY 3.95 trillion, growing by 4.2% year-on-year [6][26] - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic demand opportunities, particularly in the retail sector, where online leaders are reshaping supply chains and improving profitability by closing loss-making stores [6][26] Summary by Sections Retail Sales Performance - December retail sales in urban areas totaled CNY 3.84 trillion, with a year-on-year growth of 3.7%, while rural areas saw a total of CNY 0.67 trillion, growing by 3.8% [6] - The retail sales of goods in December reached CNY 3.96 trillion, with a year-on-year increase of 3.9%, while dining revenue was CNY 0.55 trillion, growing by 2.7% [6] Category Analysis - In December, the year-on-year growth rates for various categories were as follows: grain and oil food +9.9%, beverages -8.5%, and tobacco and alcohol +10.4%. For discretionary items, cosmetics and gold and silver jewelry saw growth rates of +0.8% and -1.0%, respectively [6][26] - The retail sales growth for building materials, furniture, and home appliances in December was +0.8%, +8.8%, and +39.3%, respectively [6] E-commerce Insights - The e-commerce penetration rate increased by 0.1 percentage points, with the total online retail sales of physical goods for the year reaching CNY 13.08 trillion, a year-on-year growth of 6.5% [6][26] - The e-commerce penetration rate stood at 26.8%, reflecting a slight increase from the previous month [6] Investment Recommendations - For retail, the report recommends companies like Nanji E-commerce, Dashang Co., and Kidswant, highlighting their improved profitability and strategic store closures [6] - In cosmetics, brands with strong momentum and high earnings certainty such as Runben Co., Marubi, and Proya are recommended [6] - In the jewelry sector, companies like Zhou Daxing and Lao Fengxiang are suggested due to the upcoming traditional peak season [6] - For tourism, companies like Jiuhua Tourism and Changbai Mountain are highlighted for potential growth during the early Spring Festival holiday [6] - In the cross-border sector, attention is drawn to quality leading companies expanding their product categories [6]