[Table_Page] 跟踪研究|小家电 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 石头科技（688169.SH） 石头新品发布，Z70 搭载首创仿生机械手 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： | 盈利预测： | | --- | | [Table_Finance] | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 6,629 | 8,654 | 10,566 | 12,836 | 15,454 | | 增长率 （ % ） | 13.6% | 30.5% | 22.1% | 21.5% | 20.4% | | EBITDA（百万元） | 1,424 | 2,227 | 2,432 | 2,768 | 3,204 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 1,183 | 2,051 | 2,124 | 2,329 | 2,708 | | 增长率 （ ） % | -15.6% | 73.3% | 3.5% | 9.7% | 16.3% | | EPS（元/股） | 9.04 | ...

[Table_Page] 公司深度研究|国防军工 证券研究报告 | [Table_Title] 星图测控（920116.BJ） | | --- | 航天测运控领先者，特种及商业星座空间广阔 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： 盈利预测： [Table_Finance] 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 营业收入（百万元） 141 229 287 365 459 增长率（ % ） 35.7% 61.9% 25.5% 27.0% 25.8% EBITDA（百万元） 40 69 92 119 155 归母净利润（百万元） 51 63 83 107 139 增长率（ % ） 45.6% 23.4% 33.2% 28.3% 30.0% EPS（元/股） 0.68 0.79 0.76 0.97 1.27 市盈率（P/E） - - 57.97 45.17 34.74 ROE（%） 44.0% 28.0% 27.2% 18.5% 19.4% EV/EBITDA - - 51.40 38.78 29.42 数据来源：公司财务报表，广发证券发展研究中心 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声 ...

[Table_Page] 深度分析|传媒 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 传媒行业 2025A 股游戏板块前瞻：产品周期、AI 赋能、并购扩张 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： | [Table_Grade] 行业评级 | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 前次评级 | 买入 | | 报告日期 | 2025-01-08 | [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 -24% -13% -2% 8% 19% 30% 01/24 03/24 06/24 08/24 10/24 01/25 传媒 沪深300 | [分析师： Table_Author]旷实 | | | --- | --- | | | SAC 执证号：S0260517030002 | | | SFC CE No. BNV294 | | | 010-59136610 | | | kuangshi@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： | 章驰 | | | SAC 执证号：S0260523080001 | | | 021-38003814 | | 请注意，章驰并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注册 | gfzhangc@g ...

[Table_Page] 跟踪分析|家用电器 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 家用电器行业 25 年政策落地，有望继续提振家电内需 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： [Table_Grade] 行业评级 持有 前次评级 持有 报告日期 2025-01-08 [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 -4% 5% 14% 22% 31% 40% 01/24 03/24 06/24 08/24 10/24 01/25 家用电器 沪深300 [分析师： Table_Author]曾婵 SAC 执证号：S0260517050002 SFC CE No. BNV293 0755-82771936 zengchan@gf.com.cn 分析师： 陈尧 SAC 执证号：S0260524010003 021-38003786 shchenyao@gf.com.cn 请注意，陈尧并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注册 持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 | 股票简称 | 股票代码 | 货币 | 最新 | 最近 评级 | 合理价值 | EPS(元) | | PE(x) | | EV/EBITDA(x) ...

[Table_Page] 跟踪分析|汽车 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 汽车行业 如何看待乘用车以旧换新政策延续下的销量弹性 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： | [Table_Grade] 行业评级 | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 前次评级 | 买入 | | 报告日期 | 2025-01-08 | [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 01/24 03/24 06/24 08/24 10/24 01/25 汽车 沪深300 | [分析师： Table_Author]陈飞彤 | | | --- | --- | | | SAC 执证号：S0260524040002 | | | 021-38003726 | | | gfchenfeitong@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： | 闫俊刚 | | | SAC 执证号：S0260516010001 | | | 021-38003682 | | | yanjungang@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： | 周伟 | | | SAC 执证号：S02605220900 ...

[Table_Page] 跟踪分析|计算机 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 计算机行业: NVIDIA CES 2025 主 题演讲跟踪点评 Blackwell 芯片全面投产，AI Agent 空间广阔 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： | [Table_Grade] 行业评级 | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 前次评级 | 买入 | | 报告日期 | 2025-01-08 | [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 [分析师： Table_Author]刘雪峰 -27% -15% -4% 8% 20% 32% 01/24 03/24 06/24 08/24 10/24 01/25 计算机 沪深300 | SAC 执证号：S0260514030002 | | --- | | SFC CE No. BNX004 | | 021-38003675 | | gfliuxuefeng@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： 吴祖鹏 | | SAC 执证号：S0260521040003 | | wuzupeng@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： 周源 | | SAC 执证号：S ...

[Table_Page] 公司深度研究|计算机设备 -40% -26% -12% 2% 16% 30% 01/24 03/24 05/24 07/24 09/24 11/24 01/25 新大陆 沪深300 证券研究报告 | [Table_Title] 新大陆（000997.SZ） | | --- | 网号网证有望带来新增量，支付业务借出 海焕发新生机 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： 盈利预测： | [Table_Finance] | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 7370 | 8250 | 8416 | 9408 | 10921 | | 增长率（ % ） | -4.3% | 11.9% | 2.0% | 11.8% | 16.1% | | EBITDA（百万元） | 562 | 1363 | 1325 | 1647 | 2005 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | -382 | 1004 | 1110 | 1377 | 1667 | | 增长率（ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings, with a current price of 379.60 HKD and a target value of 478.17 HKD per share [5][22]. Core Views - Tencent Video's strategy of enhancing collaboration with WeChat IP and focusing on quality content has led to significant improvements in its competitive position, with four out of the top five new series in 2024 being aired on Tencent Video [10][11]. - The synergy between WeChat IP and Tencent's content ecosystem is strengthening, with a focus on high-quality IP adaptations across various media formats, including series, animations, and games [10][13]. - The report forecasts revenue growth for Tencent, projecting revenues of 657.9 billion RMB and 713 billion RMB for 2024 and 2025, respectively, with adjusted net profits expected to reach 221.8 billion RMB and 244.4 billion RMB, reflecting growth rates of 45.0% and 10.2% [10][17]. Summary by Sections Financial Forecast - Revenue for 2022 was 554.6 billion RMB, with projections of 609 billion RMB for 2023, 657.9 billion RMB for 2024, 713 billion RMB for 2025, and 768.9 billion RMB for 2026, indicating a growth rate of 9.8% in 2023 and 8.0% in 2024 [3][10]. - Adjusted net profit is expected to grow from 115.3 billion RMB in 2023 to 221.8 billion RMB in 2024, representing a 45.0% increase [3][10]. - The report anticipates an EPS of 12.00 RMB for 2022, increasing to 24.04 RMB in 2024, with a P/E ratio projected to decrease from 25.5 in 2022 to 14.5 in 2024 [3][10]. Business Performance - Tencent Video has successfully launched several high-performing series in 2024, with a focus on female-oriented themes and high-quality productions, which have significantly boosted viewership [10][11]. - The report highlights Tencent's comprehensive ecosystem from IP creation to content distribution, which is expected to enhance profitability and market share in the coming years [10][17]. Valuation - The report employs a Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) valuation method, estimating the core business value at 4.03 trillion HKD, with a total company value of 4.4 trillion HKD, translating to a target price of 478.17 HKD per share [20][22].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a current price of HKD 7.26 and a fair value of HKD 10.73 [5]. Core Views - The company is expected to face pressure in 2024, but there is potential for recovery in 2025 due to an increase in content supply [3][8]. - The overall performance in 2024 is anticipated to decline, primarily due to a weak domestic film market and underperformance of certain films [8][9]. - The company maintains a strong position in the ticketing and film promotion sectors, with expectations of revenue growth in the coming years [10][11]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: The company is projected to achieve revenues of RMB 42.62 billion in 2024, RMB 50.19 billion in 2025, and RMB 55.99 billion in 2026, with a year-on-year decrease of 10.42% in 2024 [4][12]. - **Net Profit**: The expected net profit for 2024 is RMB 1.85 billion, significantly down from 2023, but projected to recover to RMB 7.14 billion in 2025 and RMB 9.18 billion in 2026 [4][12]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: EPS is forecasted to be RMB 0.16 in 2024, increasing to RMB 0.62 in 2025 and RMB 0.80 in 2026 [4][12]. - **Valuation Metrics**: The company is expected to have a P/E ratio of 41.7 in 2024, decreasing to 10.8 in 2025 and 8.4 in 2026 [4][12]. Revenue Breakdown - **Online Entertainment Ticketing Services**: Expected revenues of RMB 20.44 billion in 2024, RMB 24.34 billion in 2025, and RMB 27.02 billion in 2026, with a decline of 9.52% in 2024 [10][12]. - **Entertainment Content Services**: Projected revenues of RMB 20.16 billion in 2024, RMB 23.53 billion in 2025, and RMB 26.42 billion in 2026, reflecting a decrease of 12.37% in 2024 [10][12]. - **Advertising Services and Others**: Anticipated revenues of RMB 2.02 billion in 2024, RMB 2.33 billion in 2025, and RMB 2.56 billion in 2026 [10][12]. Market Position - The company is recognized as a leading player in the ticketing and film promotion industry, with a stable market share in the film ticketing sector and significant growth in the live performance market [9][10].

[Table_Page] 跟踪研究|专业工程 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 鸿路钢构（002541.SZ） Q4 新签金额小幅承压，产量略增 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： 前次评级 买入 报告日期 2025-01-07 [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 -42% -28% -13% 1% 16% 30% 01/24 03/24 05/24 07/24 09/24 11/24 01/25 鸿路钢构 沪深300 | [分析师： Table_Author]耿鹏智 | | --- | | SAC 执证号：S0260524010001 | | 021-38003620 | | gengpengzhi@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： 谢璐 | | SAC 执证号：S0260514080004 | | SFC CE No. BMB592 | | 021-38003688 | | xielu@gf.com.cn | | 请注意，耿鹏智并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注 | [联系人： Table_Contacts]张子峻 册持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 zhangziju ...