Core Insights - The report analyzes the historical patterns of A-share market performance following significant trading volume increases, indicating that market sentiment often shifts after peak trading volumes, with only a few sectors maintaining strong momentum [3][4][5] - It highlights that sectors with robust fundamental expectations tend to sustain their strength post-volume spikes, such as construction during the Belt and Road Initiative in 2014 and AI-related sectors in 2025 [3][4][5] Historical Volume Analysis - A total of six significant volume spikes in A-shares have been identified, characterized by a trading volume increase of 1.5 times or more, with the most recent occurring on January 12, 2026, when the trading volume reached 3.6 trillion yuan [6][7] - Historical data shows that after these volume spikes, the market generally experiences a one-month period of limited risk, with an average return of 1.8% and a median return of 2.7% [26][27] - Over the subsequent three months, the market tends to enter a consolidation phase, with an average decline of 5.05% [26][27] Sector Performance Post-Volume - The report indicates that sectors leading in performance before a volume spike often do not maintain their positions in the following months, suggesting a shift in market focus [37][41] - For instance, sectors like construction and technology have shown varying degrees of performance continuity after volume spikes, with some sectors like food and beverage maintaining strength due to external factors such as foreign investment [41][42] Small vs. Large Cap Stocks - Historically, small-cap stocks tend to outperform large-cap stocks in the month following a volume spike, although this trend does not hold consistently over a three-month period [47][48] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring market sentiment and sector fundamentals to gauge future performance [55] Future Market Outlook - The report projects that the A-share market will likely experience a strong upward trend from late January to mid-March 2026, driven by seasonal effects and positive earnings forecasts [4][52] - Key sectors to watch include copper, energy storage, and semiconductor industries, which are expected to perform well in the upcoming months [4][55]

Power Generation and Industrial Activity - As of January 8, the cumulative power generation from coal-fired power plants increased by 2.6% year-on-year, compared to a decrease of 8.5% in December[3] - The cumulative heating supply from coal-fired power plants rose by 5.1% year-on-year[3] - The operating rate of 247 blast furnaces nationwide increased by 1.4 percentage points year-on-year, reaching 79.0%[3] - The average daily crude steel output from key enterprises increased by 11.8% month-on-month but decreased by 4.1% year-on-year, averaging 1.997 million tons per day[4] Construction and Real Estate - The funding availability rate for construction sites decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 59.6% as of January 13[5] - The average daily transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities fell by 38.6% year-on-year from January 1 to January 16[8] - The year-on-year decline in second-hand housing agency subscriptions in 80 cities was 20.8%[10] Consumer Goods and Retail - Retail sales of passenger vehicles from January 1 to January 11 dropped by 32% year-on-year, with wholesale sales down by 40%[10] - The average wholesale price of pork increased by 2.7% to 18.1 yuan per kilogram as of January 16[16] - The production of household appliances showed a positive growth of 6% year-on-year, with air conditioner production up by 11%[11] Economic Indicators - The Business Price Index (BPI) rose by 3.8% to 933 points as of January 16, indicating a broad price increase across various sectors[13] - The photovoltaic manager index (SMI) decreased by 1.3 percentage points to 133.0 points, reflecting a decline in upstream manufacturing activity[7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tencent Holdings (00700.HK) is "Buy" with a current price of 617.50 HKD and a fair value estimate of 744.46 HKD [2]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that advertising and gaming continue to show strong momentum, with significant investments in AI infrastructure [3][7]. - The forecast for Q4 2025 anticipates revenue of 1,947 billion RMB, representing a year-over-year growth of 13% [7]. - The report projects that Tencent's revenue will reach 7,522 billion RMB in 2025 and 8,290 billion RMB in 2026, with corresponding growth rates of 13.9% and 10.2% respectively [7][24]. Financial Projections - Revenue (in billion RMB): - 2023A: 6,090 - 2024A: 6,603 - 2025E: 7,522 - 2026E: 8,290 - 2027E: 8,973 - Growth Rates (%): - 2023A: 9.8% - 2024A: 8.4% - 2025E: 13.9% - 2026E: 10.2% - 2027E: 8.2% [4]. - Adjusted Net Profit (in billion RMB): - 2023A: 1,577 - 2024A: 2,227 - 2025E: 2,564 - 2026E: 2,929 - 2027E: 3,235 - Growth Rates (%): - 2023A: 36.4% - 2024A: 41.2% - 2025E: 15.1% - 2026E: 14.2% - 2027E: 10.5% [4]. Business Segment Performance - Gaming revenue for Q4 2025 is expected to reach 574 billion RMB, with a year-over-year growth of 17% [7]. - Social network revenue is projected at 324 billion RMB for Q4 2025, reflecting a 9% year-over-year increase [7]. - Marketing services revenue is anticipated to be 421 billion RMB for Q4 2025, showing a 20% year-over-year growth [7]. Valuation Methodology - The report employs a Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) valuation method, estimating the fair value of Tencent's core business at 6.35 trillion HKD, leading to a total fair value of 744.46 HKD per share [24][27].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Fixed Proportion + Macro Indicators + Technical Indicators Combination - **Model Construction Idea**: This model combines fixed proportion asset allocation with adjustments based on macroeconomic and technical indicators to optimize portfolio performance[35][36] - **Model Construction Process**: - Select seven asset classes, including equities, bonds, commodities, and currencies - Set a fixed proportion as the baseline allocation for each asset class - Adjust the weights of non-currency assets based on the latest monthly signals from macroeconomic and technical indicators, while correspondingly increasing or decreasing the allocation to currency assets[37] - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively integrates macro and technical signals to enhance portfolio performance and reduce risk[36] 2. Model Name: Classic Asset Allocation Model + Macro Indicators + Technical Indicators Combination - **Model Construction Idea**: This model incorporates classic asset allocation strategies, such as risk parity and volatility control, with macroeconomic and technical indicators to achieve better risk-adjusted returns[43] - **Model Construction Process**: - Use the same seven asset classes as the previous model - Set baseline weights based on risk parity or a 6% annualized volatility control - Adjust weights monthly based on macroeconomic and technical signals - Impose constraints on asset allocation proportions (e.g., equity allocation capped at 30%, commodity allocation capped at 20%) and turnover rates (e.g., single asset monthly turnover capped at 20%, total monthly turnover capped at 30%)[43] - **Model Evaluation**: The model balances risk and return effectively, with constraints improving feasibility and stability[43] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Fixed Proportion + Macro Indicators + Technical Indicators Combination - Annualized Return: 10.22%[40] - Maximum Drawdown: 9.34%[40] - Annualized Volatility: 6.24%[40] 2. Classic Asset Allocation Model + Macro Indicators + Technical Indicators Combination - **Volatility Control (6%) + Macro Indicators + Technical Indicators Combination**: - Annualized Return: 9.10%[47] - Maximum Drawdown: 5.06%[47] - Annualized Volatility: 4.94%[47] - **Risk Parity + Macro Indicators + Technical Indicators Combination**: - Annualized Return: 8.28%[47] - Maximum Drawdown: 4.47%[47] - Annualized Volatility: 3.40%[47] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Macroeconomic Trend Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Analyze the impact of macroeconomic indicator trends (upward or downward) on asset returns[10] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Use historical moving averages to determine the trend of a macroeconomic indicator - Conduct a t-test to evaluate whether asset returns differ significantly under upward and downward trends - Formula: $ t = \frac{\overline{R_1} - \overline{R_2}}{\sqrt{\frac{(n_1-1)S_1^2 + (n_2-1)S_2^2}{n_1+n_2-2} \left(\frac{1}{n_1} + \frac{1}{n_2}\right)}} \sim t_{n_1+n_2-2} $ where $\overline{R_1}$ and $\overline{R_2}$ are the average monthly returns under upward and downward trends, $S_1$ and $S_2$ are the standard deviations, and $n_1$ and $n_2$ are the number of months in each trend[10] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor effectively identifies significant differences in asset returns under different macroeconomic trends[10] 2. Factor Name: Trend Indicator Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Use historical price data to measure the trend of different asset classes[16] - **Factor Construction Process**: - For equities: $(\text{2-month LLT average monthly return} - \text{(T-12 to T-2) month average monthly return})$ - For bonds: $(\text{2-month closing price average monthly return} - \text{(T-12 to T-2) month average monthly return})$ - For industrial commodities: $(\text{2-month closing price average monthly return})$ - For gold: $(\text{6-month closing price average monthly return})$[16] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor provides a robust method for identifying asset price trends[16] 3. Factor Name: Valuation Indicator Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Use the equity risk premium (ERP) to measure equity valuation levels[21][27] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculate ERP as the inverse of the CSI 800 Index PE (TTM) minus the 10-year government bond yield - Define the 5-year historical percentile of ERP as: $ \text{Percentile} = \frac{\text{Current ERP} - \text{5-year ERP Minimum}}{\text{5-year ERP Maximum} - \text{5-year ERP Minimum}} $ - Assign scores based on the percentile: - >90%: +2 - 70%-90%: +1 - 30%-70%: 0 - 10%-30%: -1 - <10%: -2[22] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor effectively captures valuation levels, with higher percentiles indicating lower valuations[22] 4. Factor Name: Fund Flow Indicator Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measure the net fund flow into the CSI 800 Index to assess market sentiment[27][32] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculate the monthly active net inflow as: $(\text{1-month active net inflow} - \text{6-month average monthly active net inflow})$ - Positive values indicate fund inflow, while negative values indicate fund outflow[27][32] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor provides a clear signal of market sentiment based on fund flow dynamics[32] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Macroeconomic Trend Factor - Equity: PMI (3-month moving average) → Positive trend, score: +1[15] - Bond: PMI (3-month moving average) → Negative trend, score: -1[15] - Gold: US M2 YoY (12-month moving average) → Positive trend, score: +1[15] - Industrial Commodities: PMI (3-month moving average) → Positive trend, score: +1[15] 2. Trend Indicator Factor - Equity: 2-month LLT average return → 0.38%, upward trend, score: +1[21] - Bond: 2-month closing price average return → -0.15%, downward trend, score: -1[21] - Gold: 6-month closing price average return → 4.20%, upward trend, score: +1[21] - Industrial Commodities: 2-month closing price average return → -0.09%, downward trend, score: -1[21] 3. Valuation Indicator Factor - Equity: 5-year ERP percentile → 51.77%, neutral valuation, score: 0[27] 4. Fund Flow Indicator Factor - Equity: 1-month active net inflow → 1863 billion RMB, fund inflow, score: +1[32]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [4] Core Insights - The New Year holiday travel showed strong growth, with a total of 803 million people traveling across regions from December 31, 2025, to January 3, 2026, averaging 201 million people per day, a year-on-year increase of 19.75%. The total passenger transport volume reached 209 million, with a daily average of 52 million, up 31.1% year-on-year [4][7] - The aviation sector experienced both volume and price increases, with daily flight numbers averaging 14,900 during the holiday, a 2.9% increase compared to 2025 and a 13.2% increase compared to 2019. The average ticket price for domestic economy class reached 684.6 CNY, showing a year-on-year increase of 9.8% [4][9] - The railway and waterway transport sectors outperformed the market, with year-on-year growth rates of 54.5% and 32.7%, respectively, during the holiday period [4][7] Summary by Sections Holiday Travel Data - Total national passenger transport volume reached 20,943.4 million, with a year-on-year growth of 31.1% [7] - Railway passenger transport volume was 6,476.9 million, with a year-on-year growth of 54.5% [7] - Road passenger transport volume was 13,374 million, with a year-on-year growth of 23.2% [7] - Waterway passenger transport volume was 287.4 million, with a year-on-year growth of 32.7% [7] - Civil aviation passenger transport volume was 805.1 million, with a year-on-year growth of 13.1% [7] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on airlines with stable volume growth and improving prices, specifically mentioning Hainan Airlines, China National Aviation Holding, and Spring Airlines [4] - In the railway sector, it highlights the growth potential of Guangzhou-Shenzhen Railway and Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway due to increased capacity and network effects [4]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company [3]. Core Insights - The report highlights the rapid growth potential of the domestic intelligent driving chip industry, with a significant increase in penetration rates expected in the coming years. The company is well-positioned to benefit from this trend [10][17]. - The company has a strong R&D team with extensive experience, which enhances its product development capabilities and market competitiveness [49]. - The report emphasizes the importance of collaboration with Tier 1 manufacturers and algorithm providers to drive commercialization and expand market presence [61]. Summary by Sections 1. Overall Dimension - The intelligent driving chip market is expected to grow rapidly due to increasing penetration rates driven by technological advancements, policy support, and rising consumer demand. The penetration rates for L2, L2.5, and L2.9 configurations are projected to increase significantly by 2030 [17][20]. - The report notes that only a few OEMs are likely to achieve self-developed chips due to high costs and complexities involved in chip development [29][33]. - Geopolitical factors are expected to drive the domestic market share of intelligent driving chips, with a focus on increasing localization [41][42]. 2. Product Dimension - The company is continuously iterating its products, with a focus on developing a mature ecosystem. The A1000 series has already achieved significant market penetration, and the upcoming C1200 family is expected to meet evolving automotive architecture needs [49][55]. - The C1200 family is designed to support central computing architectures and is expected to be commercially viable soon, with significant advancements in safety and performance [55][57]. 3. Ecosystem Dimension - The company positions itself as a Tier 2 supplier, collaborating with leading Tier 1 manufacturers and algorithm firms to enhance its market offerings. This strategy aims to provide OEMs with substantial value and differentiation in their intelligent driving solutions [61]. - The report discusses the limitations of a tightly integrated hardware-software model, as seen in the case of Mobileye, and suggests that a more flexible approach will be beneficial for OEMs [61]. 4. Growth Potential - The company is expanding its capabilities into the robotics sector, leveraging its automotive-grade chip technology to capture new market opportunities. The SesameX platform is a key initiative in this regard [10][27]. - Revenue forecasts indicate substantial growth, with expected revenues of 834 million in 2025, 1.38 billion in 2026, and 2.11 billion in 2027, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 75.8%, 65.5%, and 52.8% respectively [8].

[Table_Page] 投资策略|点评报告 2026 年 1 月 5 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 晨会精选 ——观点全追踪（1 月第 1 期） [Table_Summary] 报告摘要： | [分析师： Table_Author]郑恺 | | --- | | SAC 执证号：S0260515090004 | | SFC CE No. BUU989 | | 021-38003559 | | zhengkai@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： 孙柏阳 | | SAC 执证号：S0260520080002 | | 021-38003680 | | sunboyang@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： 周源 | | SAC 执证号：S0260523040001 | | 0755-23948351 | | shzhouyuan@gf.com.cn | | 请注意，孙柏阳,周源并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会 | | 的注册持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 | [联系人： Table_Contacts] 毕露露 bilulu@gf.com.cn 972918116公共联系人2026-01-0 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [6] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the implementation of a large-scale equipment update and consumer goods replacement policy for 2026, which includes subsidies for scrapping and replacing vehicles. The policy is expected to significantly boost the sales of mid-to-high-end passenger cars [6][9][18]. - The report maintains a judgment of "price increase and stable volume" for domestic passenger car demand in 2026, indicating a positive outlook for the industry despite potential market fluctuations [18]. Summary by Sections 1. 2026 Vehicle Replacement Policy - The policy supports scrapping and replacing personal vehicles with subsidies of 12% (up to 20,000 CNY) for new energy vehicles and 10% (up to 15,000 CNY) for fuel vehicles with an engine size of 2.0 liters or less [9][10]. - It also includes support for scrapping old commercial vehicles and promoting the electrification of city buses [9][10]. 2. Market Share Tracking in PHEV Segment - The report focuses on the performance of PHEV market shares, particularly for BYD and Geely, as they adjust their market strategies and configurations [11]. - The analysis indicates significant variance in market shares due to increased supply and competitive strategies [11]. 3. Recent Report Insights - The continuation of the vehicle replacement policy aligns with expectations, and the report anticipates a rise in the proportion of mid-to-high-end passenger car sales due to the subsidy structure [18]. - The report reflects on the previous year's strategy of "emerging from deflation," which has proven to be correct, and emphasizes the importance of regulatory changes and strategic adjustments by leading companies [18]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a "shelf-style" investment approach, recommending various companies across the passenger vehicle chain, including Geely, BYD, and others for potential growth [19]. - Specific companies are categorized into "right-side" and "left-side" targets based on their operational performance and market positioning [19].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" with a previous rating of "Buy" as well [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the value of oil transportation is becoming prominent against the backdrop of the US-Venezuela conflict. Short-term impacts on oil trade flows are expected to be limited, but long-term prospects may lead to increased production from Venezuela as the country could potentially re-enter compliant markets [6]. - The report suggests that the core logic of Venezuelan oil exports will shift from evading sanctions to compliance, which may increase short-distance transportation demand as US refineries are designed to process Venezuelan heavy crude oil [6]. - The supply side of the oil tanker market remains constrained, with limited growth expected in the coming years due to a low proportion of new ship orders and an aging fleet. The report notes that as of January 2026, the total order backlog represents only 17.62% of the existing fleet, with VLCC orders at 17.19% [6]. - Investment recommendations include maintaining a bullish stance on leading oil transportation companies such as China Merchants Energy Shipping Company and COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation, as their performance is expected to continue to rise amid increasing oil transportation rates [6]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report discusses the geopolitical context of the US-Venezuela conflict and its implications for oil transportation, emphasizing the potential for increased production and compliance in the Venezuelan oil market [6]. Supply Constraints - The report identifies several factors contributing to supply constraints in the oil tanker market, including a historically low percentage of new ship orders, an aging fleet, and regulatory pressures that may increase operational costs for older vessels [6]. Investment Recommendations - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the oil transportation sector, particularly for leading companies, due to anticipated increases in oil transportation rates driven by geopolitical tensions [6].

Core Insights - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for the construction materials industry, reflecting cautious optimism amid ongoing market challenges [2][3] - Key companies like China Jushi and China National Materials have initiated stock incentive plans, indicating confidence in long-term growth [6][21] Group 1: Stock Incentives and Market Management - China Jushi announced a stock incentive plan for 2025, proposing to grant up to 34.52 million shares (approximately 0.86% of total shares), with performance targets set for net profit growth [6][17] - China National Materials also introduced a stock option plan, aiming to grant 15.4 million options (about 0.92% of total shares), with ambitious profit growth targets [6][18] - An article in "Qiushi" magazine emphasized the need for improved management of real estate market expectations, suggesting that timely policy measures could stabilize the market [22][23] Group 2: Industry Fundamentals Tracking - The construction materials sector is experiencing a downturn, with leading companies showing early signs of revenue and profit recovery [34] - In the cement sector, national prices fell by 0.3% week-on-week, with an average price of 353 RMB/ton as of January 2, 2026 [6][35] - The glass market is mixed, with float glass prices showing slight declines, while photovoltaic glass remains stable [6][39] Group 3: Financial Performance and Valuation - The report highlights that the construction materials industry is at a historical valuation low, suggesting potential investment opportunities in leading companies [6][34] - Key companies such as Huaxin Cement, Conch Cement, and China Jushi are noted for their strong market positions and potential for profit recovery [6][35][36] - The report provides detailed financial metrics for various companies, indicating a range of price-to-earnings (PE) ratios and expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 and 2026 [7]