[Table_Page] 行业专题研究|计算机 2025 年 1 月 2 日 用不及预期；只是根据公开渠道的统计，未必能体现行业和公司订单全貌，存在趋势不一致的可能。 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------|------------------------------|----------|------------------------------|----------------------------------------| | [Table_Title] \n医疗 | 计算机行业 \nIT 订单跟踪： | 24 | | 年订单呈现量升价跌，行业集中度持续提升 | | [Tabl 分析师： | 刘雪峰 | 分析师： | 李婉云 | | | e_Author] | SAC 执证号： S0260514030002 | | SAC 执证号： S0260522120002 | | | | SFC CE.no: BNX004 | | | | | | 021-38003675 | | | | | | gfliuxuefeng@gf.com ...

[Table_Page] 行业专题研究|商贸零售 2024 年 12 月 31 日 证券研究报告 电商行业专题:电商业绩表现稳健，大促发力和政策刺激促增长 2024-12-09 [Table_Title] 海外高端品牌观察 2024 年全球奢侈品市场普遍承压，日本、南欧、美国表现较好 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------|------------------------------| | | | | | | [Tabl 分析师： | 嵇文欣 | 分析师： | 包晗 | | e_Author] | SAC 执证号： S0260520050001 | | SAC 执证号： S0260522070001 | | | SFC CE.no: AOB364 | | | | | 021-38003653 | | 021-38003651 | | | jiwenxin@gf.com. ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to several leading companies in the liquor industry, including Guizhou Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, Luzhou Laojiao, and others, indicating a positive outlook for their stock performance [3][5][45]. Core Insights - The liquor industry has shown steady revenue growth, with the market share of leading companies significantly increasing from 20% in 2015 to 54% in 2023, while the top five companies' market share rose from 16% to 44% [12][57]. - Concerns about the sustainability of growth in the liquor sector have emerged, particularly regarding inventory levels and performance continuity, as evidenced by the divergence between ROE and stock price trends over the past two years [3][65]. - The report highlights a shift in investor sentiment, with some viewing the liquor industry as a "sunset industry," while others express concerns about high inventory levels and crowded trading positions [80][89]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Growth Potential of Leading Liquor Companies - The report discusses the growth potential of leading liquor companies, emphasizing the significant increase in market share and revenue among top players [57][91]. - It notes that the concentration ratio (CR5) in the liquor industry remains low compared to other consumer sectors, suggesting further growth opportunities [91]. Section 2: Analysis of Financial Statements - The report analyzes the financial statements of leading liquor companies, indicating a strong correlation between ROE and stock prices, with recent concerns about inventory and performance sustainability [3][65]. - It highlights that prepayments in the liquor industry have increased from 19.5 billion CNY in 2015 to 54.7 billion CNY in 2023, reflecting the industry's pricing power and future revenue potential [74]. Section 3: Fund Holdings and Market Positioning - The report examines the current positioning of liquor funds, noting that active equity funds have a relatively low allocation to liquor stocks compared to previous cycles, indicating a potential for reallocation [25][39]. - It mentions that the current fund holdings in the liquor sector are at 10.3%, higher than previous downturns, but still reflects a cautious approach from investors [39][45]. Section 4: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends specific companies for investment, including Jinshiyuan, Shanxi Fenjiu, Luzhou Laojiao, and others, while also suggesting to keep an eye on Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye for their potential value [45][81].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 61.32 CNY per share based on a 2025 PS valuation of 9x [74]. Core Insights - The company has successfully broken the technological monopoly of Japanese firms and is now a leading global player in hybrid stepper motors. It has expanded its product matrix in servo motors and hollow cup motors, leveraging scale effects and cost advantages to steadily increase market share [73]. - The domestic replacement process for stepper motors is advancing, with the company expanding from low-end to high-end applications. The demand in traditional sectors is expected to recover, while new emerging sectors like factory automation and automotive electronics are driving growth [73]. - The company holds a first-mover advantage in the research and application of hollow cup motors, which are expected to meet the growing demand in humanoid robots. The global market for hollow cup motors is projected to grow significantly, with the company positioned as a potential supplier for leading robotics firms [74]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company specializes in motor products, breaking the monopoly of Japanese companies, with a wide range of applications in industrial automation, security, communication, automotive, and consumer sectors [6][5]. Product Segmentation - The company's revenue is primarily derived from control motors and their drive systems (82.29% of revenue, 39.0% gross margin), followed by power and lighting control systems (7.13% revenue, 37.1% gross margin), and trade-related activities (9.3% revenue, 20% gross margin) [8]. Market Position and Competitiveness - The company has made strategic acquisitions to enhance its technology and market presence, including AMP in 2014 and Technosoft Motion AG in 2018, which have expanded its product lines and customer base in North America and Europe [9][10]. Financial Performance - The company has maintained a high R&D expense ratio (9.40% in H1 2024), indicating a commitment to technological advancement and maintaining a competitive edge in core business areas [14]. Market Trends - The stepper motor market in China is expected to grow from 102.4 billion CNY in 2018 to 161 billion CNY in 2023, with a CAGR of 9.48%, driven by demand in consumer electronics, home appliances, and automotive electronics [20][21]. Future Outlook - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 2.42 billion CNY, 2.85 billion CNY, and 3.61 billion CNY from 2024 to 2026, with net profits reaching 84 million CNY, 178 million CNY, and 217 million CNY respectively [74].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of 54.33 CNY per share, based on an 18x PE valuation for 2024 [1][2]. Core Insights - The company has established a strong brand presence in the U.S. market through its iHealth brand, particularly in home health monitoring devices, which has led to significant revenue growth [4][36]. - The company is expected to see a recovery in profitability driven by new product launches and the stabilization of its COVID-19 testing products, which have become mainstream [58][59]. - The home medical device market is experiencing a shift towards more personalized and intelligent health monitoring solutions, creating new opportunities for growth [33][61]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, originally focused on electronic blood pressure monitors, has extensive experience in overseas markets and has successfully expanded its product offerings [20][24]. - The iHealth brand has gained significant traction in the U.S. market, particularly during the COVID-19 pandemic, leading to a substantial increase in overseas revenue [52][70]. Market Trends - The home medical device market is witnessing a trend of increased consumer adoption, driven by the need for convenient and easy-to-use health monitoring solutions [61][62]. - The demand for home diagnostic devices has surged, particularly for products like blood pressure monitors and glucose meters, as consumers become more health-conscious [33][61]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts a recovery in net profit, with expected figures of 1.481 billion CNY, 1.565 billion CNY, and 1.671 billion CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [2][37]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 3.02 CNY, 3.19 CNY, and 3.41 CNY for the same years, indicating a positive growth trajectory [2][37]. Product Development and Strategy - The company has successfully launched new products, including a COVID-19 and flu combination test, which has received emergency use authorization in the U.S. [36][70]. - The diabetes care segment, particularly the O+O model, is showing promising growth, with significant partnerships established in the U.S. [36][70]. Competitive Position - The company has built a competitive edge in the U.S. market through its established brand and product offerings, which are well-positioned to meet ongoing health monitoring needs [36][70]. - The strategic focus on high-margin products, such as the new combination tests, is expected to enhance overall profitability [58][59].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" with a previous rating of "Buy" as well, reported on December 31, 2024 [40]. Core Insights - The automotive industry has seen a significant inventory reduction, with current inventory levels remaining low. As of November 2024, the passenger vehicle industry inventory stood at 3.774 million units, with a dynamic inventory-to-sales ratio of 2.0, indicating a robust inventory clearance [43]. - The domestic demand for passenger vehicles in November 2024 was 2.38 million units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 24.1% and a month-on-month increase of 3.6%. Cumulative sales from January to November 2024 reached 20.192 million units, with an 8.2% year-on-year growth [40]. - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEVs) continues to rise, with November 2024 NEV sales reaching 1.237 million units, a year-on-year increase of 61.1%. The penetration rates for NEVs were 48.3% and 52.0% for wholesale and insurance registration, respectively [40]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Policy Impact - The implementation of the vehicle replacement policy and local subsidies has shown positive effects, particularly for vehicles priced below 100,000 yuan, which saw significant sales increases [40]. Section 2: Market Performance - The report highlights the strong performance of domestic brands in the NEV segment, with a market share increase to 60.2% in 2024, up 9.0 percentage points from 2023 [40]. Section 3: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a "shelf-style" investment approach, recommending various companies based on their operational performance. Right-side targets include Geely, BYD, Li Auto, Seres, and Xpeng, while left-side targets include Great Wall Motors and Changan [24].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a "Hold" rating for the industry, expecting stock performance to fluctuate between -5% and +5% relative to the market over the next 12 months [71]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that AI large models are transforming business scenarios by enhancing value-added services, improving efficiency, and accelerating decision-making processes. This transformation is expected to significantly boost market competitiveness for enterprises [99]. - The concept of "Agent" is highlighted as a crucial trend for future development. AI Agents, as intelligent systems, can perceive and collect external data, recognize patterns, make decisions, and execute necessary actions. This adaptability makes them well-suited for B-end applications, where business scenarios are clearer and there is substantial industry knowledge and data accumulation [99]. Summary by Sections AI Large Models Empowering Business Scenarios - AI large models can analyze user behavior in real-time, creating detailed user profiles and matching suitable advertising content, thus enhancing marketing effectiveness [6][16]. - The integration of AI in CRM tools allows for more precise data analysis and personalized customer service, improving customer engagement and conversion rates [16][60]. Advertising and User Acquisition - Platforms like AppDiscovery have successfully improved user acquisition and advertising ROI for companies, demonstrating the effectiveness of AI in optimizing advertising strategies [9][10]. - The use of generative AI in advertising creative processes has significantly increased efficiency and quality, allowing for rapid adjustments based on market trends [10][11]. Software Development and Automation - AI large models are expected to automate traditional programming tasks, reducing error rates and development cycles by significant margins, such as a 20% reduction in development time [36][80]. - The report notes that the commercial value of AI applications in software development is higher due to their direct link to product development and revenue growth [80]. Future Trends and Market Dynamics - The report identifies that high ROI scenarios in B-end applications, such as software development, advertising, and CRM, will likely achieve product-market fit more rapidly due to their standardized tasks and clear efficiency demands [58][65]. - The competitive landscape is expected to intensify as AI-native startups emerge alongside traditional giants leveraging their resources and industry experience [67].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for multiple companies in the media industry, including Light Media, Mango Super Media, Wanda Film, and others, indicating a positive outlook on their stock performance [4]. Core Insights - ByteDance maintains a leading position in the generative AI era due to its internal competition mechanism, long-term traffic accumulation, strong monetization capabilities, and solid financial strength [3][7]. - The Doubao AI model family has rapidly gained traction, with daily token usage exceeding 4 trillion by December 2024, marking a growth of over 33 times since its launch [7][49]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the AI ecosystem being built by ByteDance, which includes large models, application development platforms, and various consumer applications [7][43]. Summary by Sections 1. ByteDance AI Layout - ByteDance's AI strategy is divided into four layers: large models (Doubao), intermediate layers (AI application development platforms), application layers (C-end apps and AI hardware), and underlying technology architecture (cloud and data) [7][43]. - The Doubao model family includes various models such as general models, visual understanding, and music models, with significant updates announced in December 2024 [7][49]. 2. Intermediate Layer - The "Kouzi" platform significantly lowers the barrier for AI application developers, allowing users without programming skills to create various bots easily [56][58]. - As of December 2024, the Kouzi platform has over 1 million active developers and has published more than 2 million intelligent agents, covering multiple application scenarios [56][58]. 3. Application Layer - ByteDance's AI Q&A app "Doubao" has become the second most used AI application globally and the top in China as of November 2024 [63]. - The report highlights the success of other C-end AI applications, including the AI companion app "Cat Box," which has seen significant downloads and daily active users [63]. 4. Financial Strength and Market Position - ByteDance's strong financial capabilities support its AI initiatives, allowing for continued investment in model training and inference needs [3][7]. - The report suggests that the ongoing improvements in AI model capabilities and decreasing computational costs will enhance the potential for various industry applications, including gaming, film, marketing, and education [20].

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate industry as "Buy" with expectations of outperforming the market in the next 12 months [32]. Core Insights - The real estate market is experiencing a downturn in performance, with a notable decline in sales among major real estate companies. In November 2024, the top 100 real estate companies achieved sales of 386.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.8% [27][51]. - The sales performance of key tracked companies also fell, with a total sales amount of 257.4 billion yuan in November, down 14.0% year-on-year. This follows a brief recovery in October, indicating a potential short-term market correction after the "924" policy [27][51]. - The new opening sales rate in major cities reached 58% in November, marking a month-on-month increase of 1 percentage point, the highest of the year, second only to the same period in 2020 [27]. - The land acquisition scale reached its highest for the year in November, with 44 sample companies collectively acquiring land worth 69.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 41% and a month-on-month increase of 146% [27]. - Financing for real estate companies showed marginal recovery, with total financing reaching 141.8 billion yuan in November, a 21% increase month-on-month, although it represents a 3% year-on-year decline [27]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The market is experiencing a downturn, with high inventory turnover rates maintained [27]. Company Performance - Central state-owned enterprises showed stable performance, with Poly Real Estate achieving year-on-year growth [27]. Land Acquisition - The scale of land acquisition reached its highest for the year, with a slight decrease in profit margins [27]. Financing - Overall financing for real estate companies improved month-on-month, with a continued decline in costs [27]. Valuation and Investment Recommendations - Market recovery appears to be stalling, with a decline in sector valuations observed [27].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [27]. Core Insights - The report highlights the significant market potential for recycled water in the photovoltaic industry due to new regulations requiring a 40% recycled water usage for new capacities [29][62]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) has released new standards that increase water consumption requirements for silicon wafer and battery production, indicating a shift towards more sustainable practices [62]. - The current penetration rate of recycled water in the photovoltaic sector is low, but there is an expectation for growth as companies begin to actively engage in this market [29][62]. Summary by Sections Section 1: New Regulations and Investment Potential - The MIIT's new standards for the photovoltaic manufacturing industry set stricter water consumption limits and require a minimum of 40% recycled water usage for new projects [62]. - The estimated investment for recycled water per GW is between 12 to 14 million yuan, with a total investment potential of approximately 149.51 billion yuan for existing capacities [62][64]. Section 2: Demand for Recycled Water - The demand for industrial recycled water is increasing, particularly in water-scarce regions and high-water-consuming industries, with the national recycled water capacity reaching 9,886 million cubic meters per day in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 8.8% [53]. - The report emphasizes the importance of recycled water as a secondary water source, especially in areas facing water shortages [53]. Section 3: Company-Specific Insights - Tianyuan Environmental Protection has a robust order book with two ongoing photovoltaic wastewater treatment projects, indicating strong market positioning [5][29]. - The report suggests that companies like Jinko Environment and Tianyuan Environmental Protection are well-positioned to benefit from the new regulations and the growing market for recycled water [29].