空间 Xml [Table_Page] 投资策略周报|传媒 [Table_Title] 互联网传媒行业 12 月国产与进口游戏版号发布，阿里开源首个视觉推理模型 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 本周（12月23日-12月27日）中信传媒板块下跌7.61%，跑输上证指数 8.56个百分点。本周（12月23日-12月27日）A股传媒板块有所回调， 主要系市场预期近期AI等方向短期缺少强催化，年底资金兑现。我们 认为AI产业趋势在，同时传媒互联网政策环境边际宽松，并且短期春 节档有望表现亮眼，业绩预期向好、估值合理的方向推荐积极配置， 推荐关注互联网、游戏等板块，及营销和影视中绩优个股。 ⚫ 投资建议：（1）互联网：我们认为当前市值切换25年盈利预期来看， 互联网公司的PE普遍处于高个位数和低双位数区间，稳健增长的标 的，建议关注腾讯控股、以及音乐流媒体的腾讯音乐和网易云音乐， 未来的增长模型稳健，盈利空间仍在不断上拓。从宏观弹性来看，我 们建议关注和经济复苏强挂钩的外卖、电商以及广告增长为主要利润 支持的美团、快手、哔哩哔哩、微博。从出海超预期，我们建议关注 泡泡玛特（北美市场拓展和尺寸拓维）。内 ...

七、风险提示 . 松——银行资负跟踪 [Table_Title] 银行投资观察 20241229 -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 12/23 03/24 05/24 08/24 10/24 12/24 银行 沪深300 SAC 执证号：S0260518020004 021-38003646 nijun@gf.com.cn [联系人： Table_Contacts] 李文洁 021-38003644 gfliwenjie@gf.com.cn 20241222 流动性宽松、同业存款自律政策调整和抢配置等因素驱动，12 月长债 利率大幅下行，高股息资产的相对吸引力再次上升，本月股息率成为驱 动个股上涨的重要因素（见图 2）。短期来看，展望 1 月份，我们认为 无风险利率下行驱动高股息重估的趋势将于 1 月中旬达到高峰，但也 可能是本轮持续三年高股息重估的尾声。其一，抢配置推动的利率下 行会让配置资金面对利率资产偏好下降，而配置资金增量同比可能亦 不会太强（参见资产配置 2025），因而长债将于一月初探至中期底部。 其二，流动性将于 1 月中旬后转紧。国内来看，1 月中旬为缴税高峰， 同时今年春节较早 ...

| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

你提供的Base64编码字符串是: 这段文本描述的是一个可以用于多种应用的大型语言模型。 榆入 * / " 使用 Kimi 探索版，解决复杂的搜索问题 图 14: 通义千问大模型回答密文解码问题的结果 1 6 数据来源:通义千问官网,广发证券发展研究中心 深度分析|计算机 个翻柱体重直放置在一个水平假上，列花颜直径为d，高为H，语圆出这个圆柱体在水平衡上的正规 影和假投影，并计算这些投影的面积，请详细解释你的推理和计算过程, 压投影是指物沐在霜直于观察方向的平腹上的投影，对于雷直较置的隔桂沐，美正投影是 图柱体的底测直径 d。 正投影的面积计算 2. 侧投影 側投影是指物体在平行于規幕方向的平面上的投影。对于重直放置的價柱体。 于圓柱体的就面直径 d, 颜皮等于圆柱体的酶 H。 ଖ୍ୟ 别的酒ଣ୍ଡା 婚 A则投影 = d × H 详细推理和计算过程 正规的 1. 确定投影影状：由于圆柱体凝直放置在水平面上,其正应影是- 2. 确定價的直径：開的直径等于蘭柱体的院测直径 d。 3. 计算酮的糖积：使用圆的面积公式 A = π -² ，其中学径 r @ 数据来源：DeepSeek 官网, 广发证券发展研究中心 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 33.70 per share [17] Core Views - The company is at a critical inflection point, aiming to achieve profitability by the end of 2025 [1] - Commercial sales are rapidly expanding, with product sales reaching USD 289 million in the first three quarters of 2024, a 44% YoY increase [2] - The company's revenue CAGR from 2023 to 2028 is expected to be around 50% [2] - The company has three global rights pipelines in clinical stages, with ZL-1310 showing potential as a best-in-class DLL3 ADC [3] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue is expected to grow from USD 387 million in 2024 to USD 856 million in 2026, with a CAGR of 45% [3][17] - EBITDA is projected to improve from a loss of USD 297 million in 2024 to a near break-even of USD -8 million in 2026 [3] - Net profit is expected to turn positive by 2026, reaching USD 41 million [3] Product Pipeline and Commercialization - The company has a differentiated global pipeline with products like ZL-1310 (DLL3 ADC), ZL-1102 (IL-17A), and ZL-1218 (CCR8) in clinical stages [3] - Key products such as Niraparib, Tumor Treating Fields, and Repotrectinib have been approved and are contributing to revenue growth [42][73] - The company is focusing on global rights pipelines, with ZL-1310 showing promising Phase Ia data [3] Key Products and Market Potential - **Efgartigimod (FcRn antagonist)**: Rapid sales growth post-approval, with Q1-Q3 2024 sales reaching USD 63.6 million in China [78] - **KarXT (M1/M4 receptor agonist)**: Expected to revolutionize schizophrenia treatment, with potential for approval in China by 2026 [60][122] - **Bemarituzumab (FGFR2b monoclonal antibody)**: Shows promise in gastric cancer, with Phase III trials expected to read out in 2025 [97][103] - **Tumor Treating Fields**: Positive results in pancreatic cancer Phase III trials, with potential for new indications [106][107] Financial Efficiency - R&D expenses in Q1-Q3 2024 were USD 182 million, a 1% YoY decrease, with an R&D expense ratio of 63% [46] - SG&A expenses were USD 216 million, a 9% YoY increase, with an expense ratio of 75% [46] - Net loss in Q1-Q3 2024 was USD 175 million, a reduction of USD 64 million compared to the previous year [46] Strategic Partnerships and Licensing - The company has secured strategic partnerships with global biopharma companies, including Argenx for Efgartigimod and Karuna Therapeutics for KarXT [40][89] - Licensing agreements have been instrumental in building a differentiated product pipeline, with products like Niraparib and Tumor Treating Fields contributing significantly to revenue [40][71] Market and Industry Context - The company operates in the biopharmaceutical sector, focusing on oncology, autoimmune diseases, CNS disorders, and infectious diseases [38][42] - The global rights pipeline and strategic partnerships position the company for long-term growth in both domestic and international markets [3][71]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings with a target price of HKD 485.21 per share [24][18] Core Views - WeChat Mini Stores are leveraging Tencent's social ecosystem to drive supply and demand, creating a unique lightweight social e-commerce model [17] - The "Gift Sending" feature in WeChat Mini Stores is expected to enhance user engagement and drive incremental growth for merchants [34] - WeChat Mini Stores have established a solid foundation with over RMB 2 trillion in GMV from mini-programs in Q3 2024, primarily driven by e-commerce transactions [21][17] - The integration of public and private domain traffic in WeChat Mini Stores is expected to enhance user conversion and repeat purchases [29] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow by 8.0% in 2024 to RMB 657.9 billion and by 8.4% in 2025 to RMB 713.0 billion [18][19] - Non-GAAP net profit is expected to increase by 45.0% in 2024 to RMB 221.8 billion and by 10.2% in 2025 to RMB 244.4 billion [18][19] - Non-GAAP EPS is forecasted to rise from RMB 16.13 in 2023 to RMB 23.93 in 2024 and RMB 26.38 in 2025 [19] WeChat Mini Stores and Social E-commerce - WeChat Mini Stores are positioned as the core e-commerce component within WeChat, integrating public and private domain traffic to drive transactions [27][29] - The "Gift Sending" feature is expected to create new demand scenarios, especially during festive seasons like Chinese New Year, potentially replacing traditional red packet gifting [34] - Merchants with WeChat Mini Stores will receive priority in search results, enhancing visibility and driving traffic [64] Market Performance and Valuation - Tencent's stock is expected to outperform the market by more than 15% over the next 12 months [56] - The company's Non-GAAP PE ratio is projected to decrease from 16.7x in 2023 to 14.6x in 2025, indicating potential undervaluation [19]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, with a target price of 87.69 HKD per share, reflecting a strong growth potential in the market [68][198]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a pizza delivery expert, with a clear path for profitability improvement and significant store expansion potential. The target for new store openings is set at 300-350 per year for the next two years, with a projected total of around 3,000 stores by 2030, nearly three times the current number [54][191][198]. - The company has demonstrated strong brand momentum, achieving continuous same-store sales growth for 29 consecutive quarters, even in a challenging market environment [68][145]. - The delivery model is a key differentiator, with a commitment to delivering within 30 minutes, which enhances customer satisfaction and brand loyalty [96][232]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The pizza market in China is expected to grow from 45.8 billion RMB in 2023 to 77.1 billion RMB by 2027, with a CAGR of 13.9% [39][171]. - The chain penetration rate for the pizza industry is significantly higher than other dining sectors, with a current rate of 90.1% expected to rise to 93.1% by 2027 [18][39]. Company Profile - The company is the exclusive master franchisee for Domino's Pizza in mainland China, Hong Kong, and Macau, having opened 1,000 stores across 33 cities as of November 2024 [68][80]. - The management team is experienced, with a focus on local market strategies and a commitment to enhancing operational efficiency [81][106]. Competitive Advantages - The company has a robust supply chain and a diverse menu, offering 33 different pizza options with customizable toppings, which enhances customer appeal [124][154]. - The brand has a strong global presence, being the leading pizza brand worldwide, which supports its growth in the Chinese market [157]. Future Outlook - Revenue is projected to grow significantly, with estimates of 42.9 billion RMB in 2024, 53.0 billion RMB in 2025, and 63.8 billion RMB in 2026, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [171][173]. - The company is expected to improve its operating profit margin (OPM) due to increased sales and optimized cost structures, with a target OPM of 14.5% by 2024 [164][171].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating, indicating an expected stock performance that exceeds the market by more than 15% within the next 12 months [31]. Core Insights - The outdoor sports market is experiencing significant growth, driven by increased consumer interest in outdoor activities post-pandemic, with participation rates in the U.S. rising from 48.2% in 2013 to 57.3% in 2023 [16][20]. - The company has a strong research and development capability, which is crucial for maintaining its competitive edge in the rapidly evolving outdoor product market [56][57]. - The vertical integration of the company's supply chain enhances product quality and profitability, allowing for better control over production processes [64]. Summary by Sections Investment Projects - The company has planned several investment projects totaling 992.04 million yuan, with significant allocations for the construction of smart production bases and R&D centers [1]. Financial Performance - The company's revenue is projected to grow significantly, with expected revenues of 1.034 billion yuan in 2024, 1.229 billion yuan in 2025, and 1.408 billion yuan in 2026, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 25.6%, 18.9%, and 14.6% respectively [2]. Product Performance - The gross margin for outdoor bags has improved from 14.44% to 26.44% over recent years, indicating a positive trend in profitability [2]. - The average selling price of inflatable mattresses has steadily increased, with prices rising from 150.15 yuan in 2021 to 167.21 yuan in 2023 [10]. Market Trends - The global outdoor sports market is expected to grow from 723.2 billion yuan in 2022 to 1,093.5 billion yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 10% [17]. - The domestic outdoor products market is also on an upward trajectory, with retail sales expected to reach 27.44 billion yuan in 2024, following a CAGR of 23.54% from 2002 to 2024 [22]. R&D and Innovation - The company has invested significantly in R&D, with expenses increasing from 29.62 million yuan in 2021 to 35.68 million yuan in 2023, reflecting a commitment to innovation [57][60]. - The company has developed several new products, including a 3D edge inflatable bed, which contributed significantly to revenue in its launch year [57]. Customer Base - The company has established long-term relationships with major clients such as Decathlon and REI, ensuring a stable revenue stream and market presence [66].

[Table_Page] 跟踪分析|保险Ⅱ 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 1 / 5 [Table_impcom] 重点公司估值和财务分析表 数据来源：Wind、广发证券发展研究中心 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 2 / 5 证券发展研究中心 数据来源：国家金融监督管理总局，广发证券发展研究中心 图5：财产险公司车险与非车险原保费累计同比增速 图6：财产险公司市场份额变化情况 -15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 202001202004202007202010202101202104202107202110202201202204202207202210202301202304202307202310202401202404202407202410 财产险 平安 太保 人保 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 3 / 5 陈 福 ：首席分析师，经济学硕士，2017 年进入广发证券研究发展中心。 持有： 预期未来 12 个月内，股价相对大盘的变动幅度介于-10%～+10%。 | --- | --- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the environmental sanitation sector, expecting a recovery in financial statements and long-term demand improvement [14]. Core Viewpoints - The implementation of debt resolution plans is anticipated to enhance the financial performance of the sanitation sector, with a significant amount of accounts receivable totaling approximately 27.5 billion yuan, accounting for 33% of total assets as of Q3 2024 [35][60]. - The sanitation service sector shows rigid demand and stable operations, with a total contract amount reaching 121.4 billion yuan in H1 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.2% [35]. - The average price-to-earnings ratio (PE) for the sanitation service sector is projected to be 12x in 2024 and 10x in 2025, indicating potential for investment [35]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Debt Resolution and Financial Recovery - The report emphasizes the importance of the recent debt resolution plan, which aims to restore local government investment demand and improve the profitability and cash recovery of environmental enterprises [41][42]. Section 2: Accounts Receivable and Aging Issues - As of Q3 2024, the sanitation sector's accounts receivable and contract assets have increased by 9% year-on-year, totaling approximately 27.5 billion yuan [60]. - The average collection rate for accounts receivable within three years is over 97%, indicating manageable collection risks [53]. Section 3: Sanitation Services Demand and Stability - The sanitation service sector has shown a steady recovery in demand, with leading companies like Qiaoyin Co. and Yuhua Tian maintaining robust revenue growth, achieving a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 20% in net profit from 2018 to 2023 [35][66]. - The competitive landscape remains intense, with over 60% of large-scale projects awarded at low prices, yet leading companies have sufficient orders to ensure revenue stability [35]. Section 4: Sanitation Equipment and Future Trends - The report notes a decline in sanitation vehicle sales, with a 6% year-on-year decrease in 2023, but highlights the potential growth in new energy and intelligent sanitation vehicles, which saw a 39% increase in sales in the same period [35][47]. - The market for unmanned sanitation vehicles is projected to reach a potential market size of 100 billion yuan, with significant interest in automation within the sector [4][5].