策略研究/策略月报 3 月金股：政策暖风 科技慢牛 ◼ 核心观点 金股推荐：1、传媒：腾讯控股；2、传媒：小米集团-W；3、汽车：零 跑汽车；4、电新：明阳电气；5、电子：东睦股份；6、汽车：博俊科 技；7、机械：精工科技；8、机械：信捷电气。 2025 年两会焦点并非经济增长或通胀，而是财政在新质生产力发展层 面的支持力度。我们认为即将召开的两会，政府有望加大超长期特别 国债的发行对于"两新"政策的支持和战略新兴产业的投资。面对全 球复杂的国内外经济形势，中国政府有望实施更加积极的财政政策， 发挥财政资金引导撬动作用支持现代化产业体系建设，加快培育发展 新质生产力。我们认为超长期国债或将重点流向先进制造业，例如半 导体、人工智能、先进制造（汽车/机器人）等前沿领域。通过大规模 投资，政府旨在加速技术突破和产业升级，引导产业结构性改革，推 动中国在全球产业链中占据更高附加值位置。此外，随着先进制造业 的逐步落地也有望带动上下游产业链协同发展，创造更多高质量就业 机会，促进中国经济向创新驱动转型和发展。 民营企业座谈会的召开意义重大，开启民营经济高质量发展新篇章。 我们认为，2 月中旬召开的民企座谈会具有重要的 ...

北京出台政策推动广告行业发展，浙江、广州多地支 持游戏产业"做大做强" ——传媒行业周报（2025.02.24-2025.2.28） ◼ 核心观点 传媒 行业研究/行业周报 本周（2.24-2.28），A 股申万传媒指数下跌 8%，整体跑输沪深 300 指 数 5.78pct，跑输创业板综指数 3.55pct。申万传媒二级七大子板块 涨跌幅由高到低分别为：电视广播(-5.28%)、出版(-5.79%)、广告营 销(-7.09%)、数字媒体(-8.38%)、游戏(-9.1%)、教育(-9.16%)、影 视院线(-9.89%）。从海外市场指数表现来看，整体继续维持弱势，海 内外指数涨跌幅由高到低分别为：纳斯达克(-3.47%)、中国金龙指数 (-3.9%)、道琼斯美国科技(-4.11%)、恒生科技(-4.97%)、申万传媒 (-8%)。 ◼ 投资建议 本周我们看好广告营销、谷子经济、游戏等方面。 广告营销：建议关注分众传媒、易点天下等。 谷子经济：建议关注奥飞娱乐、广博股份、华立科技、创源股份 等。 游戏：建议关注恺英网络、三七互娱、吉比特等。 本周核心观点与重点要闻回顾 广告营销：北京推出 12 项举措推动广告 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Ning Shui Group, indicating a positive outlook on the company's performance relative to the market benchmark [4]. Core Views - The successful election of the new board and supervisory committee on February 17 and 18, 2025, reflects the company's stable governance structure and commitment to strategic direction [2]. - The company is actively promoting the integration of artificial intelligence in smart water management, collaborating with major AI models to enhance service delivery [2]. - Local government leaders have praised the company's focus on its core business and its achievements in digital transformation, highlighting its competitive position in the water meter industry [3]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are adjusted to approximately 1.346 billion, 1.706 billion, and 1.976 billion yuan, respectively, with net profit estimates of 48 million, 53 million, and 58 million yuan [4]. - The company reported a revenue of 1.789 billion yuan in 2023, with a year-on-year growth rate of 15.1%. However, a significant decline of 24.8% is expected in 2024 [6]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 0.24 yuan in 2024, recovering to 0.26 yuan in 2025 and 0.29 yuan in 2026 [6]. Market Position and Strategy - Ning Shui Group is recognized as a leader in the water meter industry, with high concentration, competitive products, and significant sales volume [3]. - The company is leveraging new information technologies to extract data value and enhance operational efficiency in water management [2].

宁水集团(603700) 公司研究/公司点评 宁水流深，表以甬兴 ——宁水集团点评报告 ◼ 事件描述 根据 2 月 28 日的交易所互动平台信息，宁水集团 AI 虚拟人研发工作 正在稳步推进当中，计划将于 2025 年 3 月正式发布，届时将以多个角 色，同时融合 DeepSeek 等 AI 大模型，为客户提供更为直观的服务。 ◼ 核心观点 董监高换届选举顺利落地：根据公告，公司于 2025 年 2 月 17 日召开 了职工代表大会，会议选举产生了第九届监事会职工代表监事；于 2025 年 2 月 18 日召开临时股东大会，选举产生了公司第九届董事会 董事、监事会非职工代表监事。在完成董事会、监事会换届选举后， 公司于 2 月 18 日召开第九届董事会及监事会的第一次会议，审议通 过了相关议案，选举产生了公司董事长、各专门委员会委员、监事会 主席，聘任了公司新一届高级管理人员、证券事务代表。 积极推动人工智能在智慧水务的应用实践：公司积极推动新一代信息 技术与水务技术的深度融合，发掘数据价值和逻辑关系。根据公司公 众号报道，2024 年 1 月，宁水集团与通义千问、智谱清言、百度文心 等传统 AI 大模型合作 ...

宏观研究/宏观点评 经济筑底期的波动 ——1 至 2 月 PMI 分析 ◼ 核心观点 一、制造业 PMI 经历 1 月回落之后，2 月再次回到临界值以上， 而此前在 2024Q4 连续 3 个月运行在临界值以上。我们认为这是中国 经济筑底阶段的一次波动。 二、制造业 PMI 分项指数之中恢复不足的地方主要有四个方面： 需求侧新出口订单还在临界值以下；供给侧原材料库存、产成品库存 两项指数仍然偏低；价格层面购进价格指数再次回升至临界值以上， 但出厂价格指数还需进一步修复。此外，2 月只有大型企业指数回归 景气区间；而中型、小型企业指数都有所回落且仍运行在临界值以下。 总体而言，我们认为需求、价格、库存的上行循环已处于酝酿阶段。 三、从美国与欧元区的制造业 PMI 看外需：2025 年 1 月至 2 月 美国制造业连续两个月在临界值以上，欧元区制造业 PMI 仍然运行在 临界值以下。我们认为欧元区制造业 PMI 的进一步可能是全球总需求 进一步修复的关键指标。 四、中国建筑业与服务业 PMI：2025 年 2 月，建筑业 PMI 回到 临界值以上，服务业 PMI 为 50.0%，有所回落但仍保持临界值运行。 但其 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company is a global leader in high polymer functional films, particularly in optical reflective films, with a market share of 62% in 2023 [17][24]. - The company has successfully entered higher technical barrier markets such as optical base films and lithium battery separators, indicating a strong growth trajectory [3][24]. - Continuous investment in R&D and the development of new products are expected to drive long-term benefits, especially with the rising demand for domestic alternatives [24]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company has been a pioneer in the reflective film market since 2012 and has achieved a leading position in the global market by breaking the technological monopoly of Japanese and Korean firms [17][24]. - The main products include reflective films, optical base films, separators, and other special functional films, with core technologies reaching international standards [18][24]. 2. Reflective Film Market - The reflective film market for liquid crystal displays is projected to grow from approximately 1.95 billion yuan in 2023 to about 2.48 billion yuan by 2027, with a CAGR of around 6.2% [2]. - The company has achieved a reflective rate exceeding 97% through innovative multi-phase bubble structures, maintaining a high gross margin of 36.56% in the first half of 2024 [2][4]. 3. Optical Base Film - The optical base film market in China is expected to grow at a rate of 6.2%, reaching nearly 60 billion yuan by 2028 [2]. - The company has seen a steady increase in the proportion of high-end products in its optical base film segment, with gross margins improving by 8.5 percentage points year-on-year [2]. 4. Lithium Battery Separators and CPI Films - The company has received small batch orders for its lithium battery separators, which are designed for various technological applications [3]. - The CPI film project is expected to enter mass production by 2025, indicating a new growth curve for the company [3]. 5. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 0.23 billion yuan, 1.01 billion yuan, and 1.92 billion yuan for the years 2024 to 2026, with corresponding EPS of 0.08 yuan, 0.35 yuan, and 0.66 yuan [4]. - The PE ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are estimated to be 215.79x, 49.71x, and 26.25x respectively, reflecting the company's growth potential [4].

长阳科技(688299) 公司研究/公司深度 反射膜全球领先，固态膜取得突破 ——深耕宁波系列之长阳科技深度报告 ◼ 核心观点 长阳科技是全球领先高分子功能膜高新技术企业。公司于 2012 年进 入反射膜市场，2023 年全球市场占有率第一，全球光学反射膜细分行 业龙头地位稳固。2018 年底，公司进军技术壁垒更高的光学基膜领域。 2021 年进军动力电池隔膜，布局包括动力电池等成长性确定的领域。 在新型显示领域，公司加大透明聚酰亚胺薄膜的开发，该产品主要应 用于折叠手机。我们认为，长阳科技通过持续加大研发投入，依托储 备的核心技术不断进行技术迭代，不断衍生新产品、拓展新领域，致 力于打造关键基础工业新材料平台，伴随国产替代需求逐步攀升，公 司有望长期受益。 反射膜市占率全球第一，液晶显示全尺寸覆盖。我们测算，液晶显示 用反射膜 2023 年市场规模约 19.5 亿元，2027 年或达约 24.8 亿元， 2023-2027 年 CAGR 将达到约 6.2%。长阳科技成功研发出多相泡孔结 构，反射率进一步提升到 97%以上，达到了国际领先水平；产品种类 方面，实现了液晶显示全尺寸应用领域的覆盖。2024 年上 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [3][6]. Core Views - The company is a global leader in the smartphone market, focusing on smartphones, smart hardware, and IoT platforms. The smartphone revenue has consistently accounted for over 50% of total revenue, reaching 54.67% in the first three quarters of 2024. IoT and lifestyle products contributed 28.51%, while internet services made up 9.64% of total revenue. The company is advancing its "human-vehicle-home" ecosystem strategy and aims to become a global leader in core technology over the next decade [1][2][3]. Financial Performance - The company expects adjusted net profits of RMB 25.315 billion, RMB 31.916 billion, and RMB 38.386 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively. The corresponding P/E ratios are projected to be 54.35, 43.11, and 35.85 times based on the closing price on February 21, 2025 [3][5]. - For 2024, the company anticipates total revenue of RMB 362.2 billion, a 33.67% increase from 2023, with adjusted net profit expected to grow by 31.35% [5][26]. Business Development - The company is actively promoting a dual-brand strategy with Xiaomi and Redmi, achieving breakthroughs in high-end market segments. The strategy focuses on high specifications combined with competitive pricing, enhancing hardware competitiveness [2][33]. - The automotive business is rapidly developing, with the first electric vehicle, the Xiaomi SU7 series, set to launch in April 2024. The company aims to integrate its "human-vehicle-home" ecosystem, leveraging its large fan base and marketing capabilities [2][49]. IoT and AI Strategy - The AIoT strategy is continuously upgraded, with the number of connected IoT devices reaching 861.4 million by the third quarter of 2024, marking a 23.2% year-on-year increase. The company is also focusing on integrating AI into its operations and user scenarios [18][43][46]. - The company maintains a leading position in the wearable products sector, ranking third globally in wearable device shipments and first in the Chinese market for TWS earphones [43][45]. Market Position - As of the third quarter of 2024, the company ranked third globally in smartphone shipments, with a market share of 13.8%, and achieved a 3.1% year-on-year increase in global smartphone shipments [18][39].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [3][6]. Core Insights - The company is a global leader in the smartphone market, focusing on smartphones, smart hardware, and IoT platforms. The smartphone revenue has consistently accounted for over 50% of total revenue, reaching 54.67% in the first three quarters of 2024. IoT and lifestyle products contributed 28.51%, while internet services made up 9.64% of total revenue [1][2][3]. - The company is advancing its "human-vehicle-home" ecosystem strategy and aims to become a global leader in core technology through significant investments in foundational technologies over the next decade [1][3][24]. - The company has made significant progress in its dual-brand strategy with Xiaomi and Redmi, achieving breakthroughs in high-end market segments while maintaining competitive pricing [2][33]. Financial Projections and Valuation - The adjusted net profit forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected at 253.15 billion, 319.16 billion, and 383.86 billion RMB, respectively. The corresponding P/E ratios are estimated at 54.35, 43.11, and 35.85 times [3][5]. - The company’s total revenue for 2024 is expected to reach 362.2 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth rate of 33.67% [5][26]. Business Development - The company is actively expanding its automotive business, having officially entered the smart electric vehicle market in March 2021. The first vehicle, the Xiaomi SU7 series, is set to be delivered in April 2024 [2][49]. - The AIoT strategy is continuously evolving, with the number of connected IoT devices reaching 861.4 million by the third quarter of 2024, marking a 23.2% year-on-year increase [18][46]. Market Position - As of the third quarter of 2024, the company ranked third globally in smartphone shipments, with a market share of 13.8%, maintaining its position among the top three for seventeen consecutive quarters [18][39]. - The company has achieved a significant increase in its active user base, with 685.8 million monthly active users as of September 2024, reflecting a 10.1% year-on-year growth [18].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to the market benchmark [4][6]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 600-700 million yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 21.18%-41.37% [1]. - The company is benefiting from the growth in the renewable energy sector, accelerated data center construction, and international market opportunities due to transformer shortages [1][2]. - The company has introduced the MyPower data center power module, which has received significant orders, indicating strong market acceptance and potential for future revenue growth [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company forecasts a net profit of 1.64-2.64 billion yuan for Q4 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 19.78% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 13.20% [1]. - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 61.50 billion, 77.05 billion, and 90.97 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 24.3%, 25.3%, and 18.1% respectively [4][10]. Business Development - The company is positioned to benefit from the expected increase in offshore wind power installations, with a forecast of 10-15 GW of new capacity in 2025 [2]. - The company is actively expanding its overseas market presence through partnerships and has obtained various international certifications, which will support order growth in 2025 [2]. Product Innovation - The MyPower data center power module, launched in May 2024, is designed for efficiency and cost-effectiveness, contributing to the company's growth in the data center sector [3]. - The company has secured significant contracts, including a major order from ByteDance for a data center project, showcasing the competitive strength of its products [3].