◼ 投资建议 政府加杠杆托底，3 月社融数据表现亮眼。在政府融资带动下 3 月社 融数据表现亮眼。其中，政府融资是带动新增社融同比多增的重要因 素，体现出政府加杠杆的托底作用。此外，企业贷款的主要支撑项是 企业短贷，我们认为当前短贷或对票据和债券融资形成一定替代，这 或与美国关税政策带来的不确定性高企下企业经营周转资金需求增 加，以及当月票据利率和债券发行利率走高等因素有关。另一方面， 居民端信贷的边际变化主要或是受存量住房贷款利率下调带来的潜在 提前还贷减少，以及消费贷利率上调预期下的潜在提前借款行为影响， 同时地产销售的回升也有所带动。但一季度居民贷款合计同比少增 2900 亿元，我们认为其或反映目前居民部门加杠杆意愿仍然具有提振 空间，随着"两会"后大力提振消费政策出台、居民收入预期不确定 性预计改善，有望对居民短期消费需求有所提振。当前外部关税政策 复杂性上升，央行"择机降准降息"窗口或将临近，二季度债市收益 率有望挑战前低。 固定收益/固收点评 政府加杠杆托底，3 月社融数据表现亮眼 ——3 月社融数据点评 ◼ 核心观点 事件：2025 年 4 月 13 日，央行公布 2025 年 3 月金融统计数 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook on its performance relative to the market benchmark [3]. Core Insights - The company reported a 2024 revenue of 1.501 billion yuan, a year-over-year decrease of 16.13%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 52 million yuan, down 60.07% year-over-year, which aligns with prior forecasts [1][5]. - The company is facing challenges from industry demand contraction, intensified market competition, and supply chain pressures, but it is actively implementing a differentiated competitive strategy to navigate these challenges [1][2]. - The company is transitioning towards a digital service-oriented model in the water sector, focusing on building a smart water ecosystem that integrates intelligent sensing, data-driven approaches, and engineering services [2]. - A cash dividend of 2 yuan per 10 shares is proposed, amounting to approximately 39.98 million yuan, which represents 76.27% of the company's net profit for 2024 [2]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 1.709 billion yuan, 1.979 billion yuan, and 2.329 billion yuan, reflecting year-over-year growth rates of 13.9%, 15.8%, and 17.7% respectively [3][5]. - Net profit projections for the same years are 62 million yuan, 73 million yuan, and 88 million yuan, with expected growth rates of 18.3%, 17.7%, and 20.5% [3][5]. - The report outlines a gradual improvement in earnings per share, forecasting 0.31 yuan in 2025, 0.36 yuan in 2026, and 0.43 yuan in 2027 [5][12]. Valuation Metrics - The company’s price-to-earnings ratio is projected to decrease from 38.50 in 2024 to 24.62 by 2027, indicating an improving valuation as earnings grow [5][12]. - The return on equity is expected to rise from 3.3% in 2024 to 5.3% in 2027, reflecting enhanced profitability [5][12].

纺织服饰 行业研究/行业点评 关税加码建议关注国产替代主线，高铁宠物托运助推"AI+宠 物"及携宠出游板块发展 ——宠物行业周观点 ◼ 核心观点 关税扰动加码，内需景气持续，看好国产替代主线。据央视新闻，2025 年 4 月 10 日，美国政府宣布对中国输美商品征收"对等关税"的税率进一 步提高至 125%。4 月 11 日，国务院关税税则委员会发布公告，自 2025 年 4 月 12 日起，调整对原产于美国的进口商品加征关税税率，由 84%提 高至 125%。鉴于在目前关税水平下，美国输华商品已无市场接受可能性， 如果美方后续对中国输美商品继续加征关税，中方将不予理会。我们认为， 关税及对等关税对依赖美国市场的出口型企业及进口美国品牌销售的代 理型企业产生一定冲击，但短期关税扰动不改宠物行业的长期成长性，国 产替代和内需扩容是未来中国宠物市场的核心主线，建议关注自主品牌占 比高、国内国际双循环发展、海外产能多元化布局的头部企业。 高铁试点宠物托运，"AI+宠物"及携宠出游板块有望受益。据央视新闻和 人民日报，自 4 月 8 日起，铁路部门在京沪高铁的北京南、济南西、南京 南、上海虹桥、杭州东等 5 座车站间 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Increase" [6] Core Viewpoints - Domestic substitution is a key focus due to external environmental changes and industrial upgrades. The semiconductor equipment and related domestic substitution industry chain are expected to benefit continuously [1][13] - The global sales of AI smart glasses are projected to reach 90 million units by 2030, indicating a significant growth point in the consumer electronics sector [1][14] - The domestic smartphone market saw a shipment of 19.662 million units in February 2025, a year-on-year increase of 37.9%, with 5G smartphones accounting for 91.5% of the total shipments [2][15] - The domestic computing power market is expected to expand due to AI demand, with companies in the industry chain continuing to benefit from this growth [2][16][17] Summary by Sections 1. Core Viewpoints and Investment Recommendations - Domestic substitution is emphasized as a major trend, with the semiconductor equipment industry expected to benefit from this acceleration [1][4] - The AI smart glasses market is anticipated to grow significantly, with various manufacturers launching products in 2024 and 2025 [1][14] - The recovery of the domestic smartphone market is noted, with significant growth in 5G smartphone shipments [2][15] - The computing power industry is set to benefit from increased investments by operators [2][4] 2. Market Review - The A-share Shenwan Electronics Index fell by 2.71%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 1.34 percentage points [3][19] - Among the sub-sectors, the semiconductor sector declined by 0.59%, while the consumer electronics sector saw a drop of 7.77% [3][22] 3. Industry News - The U.S. has imposed a 34% tariff on Chinese imports in response to trade tensions, prompting China to implement countermeasures [32][34] - The launch of the Longxin 3C6000/D dual-server is highlighted, showcasing advancements in domestic computing power [32][16] - Qualcomm's announcement of the fourth-generation Snapdragon 8s mobile platform is expected to drive innovation in the smartphone market [33] 4. Company Dynamics - Jiangfeng Electronics is recommended for investment due to its position in the domestic substitution trend [4][40] - Companies such as Guoguang Electric and Edifier are noted for their innovations in AI glasses and audio products, respectively [37][38] - The expansion of production capacity by Ajinomoto in semiconductor materials is expected to enhance its market position [34][35]

通信 行业研究/行业周报 A OFC 2025 开展，宁波移动落地浙江省首个万兆 OLT 试商用局点 ——通信行业周报（2025.3.31-2025.4.4） ◼ 核心观点 5G-A：苹果 iOS 18.4 发布，支持 5G-A 网络。根据 C114 通信网 4 月 3 日消息，苹果向 iPhone 用户推送了 iOS 18.4 正式版更新，带来多项 新功能和优化，其中尤以支持 5G-A 网络备受关注。作为 5G 的演进 和增强版本，5G-A 提供了十倍于既有网络的能力提升和通感一体、 无源物联、内生智能等新能力。2024 年 5G-A 迎来商用元年，已有超 过 15家运营商完成 5G-A网络的商用部署。在国内，三大运营商也均 已在各地陆续进行了 5G-A 升级并发布相关套餐，开启全新时代。 市场行情回顾 本周（3.31-4.4），A 股申万通信指数下跌 0.79%，整体跑赢沪深 300 指数 0.58pct，跑赢创业板综指数 1.56pct。申万通信二级两大子板块 涨跌幅由高到低分别为：通信服务(申万)(0.81%)、通信设备(申万)(- 1.74%)。从海外市场指数表现来看，整体继续维持弱势，海内外指数 ...

◼ 核心观点 主要客户需求向好，规模效应驱动业绩增长 公司主要客户赛力斯、理想、吉利等排产需求向好，据 Marklines，24 年产量分别约 49.64万辆、51.04 万辆和 267.51 万辆，同比分别约+94%、 +34%和+41%，24Q4 产量分别约 12.64 万辆、16.04 万辆和 88.72 万 辆，同比分别约+5%、+17%和+31%，环比分别约-5%、+4%和+33%。 此外，据 Marklines，小鹏 Mona M03 热销，24Q4 产量约 4.04 万辆， 环比约+210.91%。 盈利能力强劲，24Q4 净利率创季度新高 博俊科技(300926) 公司研究/公司点评 24Q4 业绩表现亮眼，优质客户持续放量 ——24 年业绩点评 ◼ 事件描述 公司发布 2024 年年报。2024 年公司实现营收约 42.27 亿元，同比约 +62.55%；归母净利润约 6.13 亿元，同比约+98.74%。其中 24Q4，营 收约 13.65 亿元，同比约+51.67%，环比约+19.82%；归母净利润约 2.45 亿元，同比约+93.41%，环比约+80.79%。 2024 年公司毛利率约 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company, highlighting its position as a leading player in the domestic educational supplies sector and its active development of cultural and creative products [3]. Core Viewpoints - The company is a leading domestic educational and office supplies enterprise, with significant revenue growth expected in the coming years. In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 1.758 billion yuan and a net profit of 105 million yuan, showing a substantial increase when excluding one-time gains from the previous year [1][22]. - The office direct sales sector is experiencing steady growth, with the company focusing on centralized and e-commerce procurement for government and large enterprises. The company has won several procurement projects, enhancing its sales capabilities [1][20]. - The "Guzi Economy" is rapidly growing, with the market size expected to increase from 120.1 billion yuan in 2023 to 168.9 billion yuan in 2024, representing a growth rate of approximately 40.63%. The company is actively developing unique cultural and creative products and has secured multiple IP licenses [2][56]. Summary by Sections 1. Domestic Educational Supplies Leader - The company specializes in the manufacturing and sales of educational and office supplies, with a focus on sustainable development and high-quality products. It has received numerous accolades for its contributions to the industry [14]. - The company has built a diverse IP matrix, including various sub-brands, to cater to different market segments, enhancing its competitive edge [15]. 2. Growth of the "Guzi Economy" - The "Guzi Economy" is characterized by a growing market for cultural and creative products, with significant opportunities for companies that can leverage popular IPs. The company is well-positioned to benefit from this trend [56][59]. 3. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 141 million yuan, 184 million yuan, and 245 million yuan from 2024 to 2026, with corresponding growth rates of -16.8%, 30.8%, and 33.2%. The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 0.26 yuan, 0.34 yuan, and 0.46 yuan, respectively [3][5]. - The company's price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are projected to be 37.34, 28.55, and 21.44 for the same period, indicating a favorable valuation compared to peers [3][5]. 4. Industry Trends - The educational supplies industry is experiencing stable growth, with a shift towards brand and personalized products. The demand for unique and high-quality stationery is increasing among consumers [47][48]. - The rise of digital procurement is transforming the purchasing landscape, with significant growth potential in this area as companies seek to enhance efficiency and reduce costs [60].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Maintain Buy" [8] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights significant inflows into broker ETFs, indicating a positive outlook on the continuous improvement of the brokerage sector's fundamentals. Despite a 3.2% decline in the brokerage sector this week, broker ETFs experienced a net inflow for five consecutive days, with a weekly net inflow being the second highest in the past year. As of this week, 17 brokerages have reported their 2024 performance, showing a year-on-year increase of 18.6% in net profit attributable to shareholders. The A-share market has remained active this year, with a notable recovery in the equity market compared to the same period last year, suggesting that the brokerage sector's fundamentals will continue to improve in Q1 2025 [5][19][21]. Summary by Sections Market News - China's financial opening is progressing steadily, with four foreign-owned brokerages now operating. In Q1 2025, the transaction volume of brokerage mergers and acquisitions surged by 432%, with leading brokerages capturing nearly 70% of the market share. Tiger Brokers reported a 65% increase in net profit last year, with a nearly 28-fold increase in Q4. Zheshang Securities acquired 30 million shares of Guodu Securities for 57.042 million yuan [2][53]. Data Tracking - The securities index (Shenwan) fell by 3.22%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.93 percentage points. The average daily trading volume of A-shares was 15,497 billion yuan, down 6.4% week-on-week but up 75.2% year-on-year. The margin trading balance reached 1,937.4 billion yuan, with a year-to-date average margin balance increasing by 20.7% year-on-year. The newly established equity funds totaled 14.18 billion units this week, up 39.2% week-on-week [3][4][32]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on internet brokerages with high trading elasticity and beta attributes, such as Dongfang Caifu. With the recovery of the equity market and the rise of passive investment, it recommends attention to leading brokerages with advantages in equity asset management and ETF management, including CITIC Securities, GF Securities, and Huatai Securities. Additionally, brokerages with merger and acquisition expectations are highlighted [6][20].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Add" [5] Core Insights - Tencent's self-developed deep thinking model, "T1," has been officially released, enhancing reasoning capabilities through large-scale reinforcement learning and optimization for scientific and coding challenges. The model utilizes a Hybrid-Mamba-Transformer architecture, reducing computational complexity and memory usage, thus lowering training and inference costs. The API is available on Tencent Cloud, with input priced at 1 yuan per million tokens and output at 4 yuan per million tokens [1][23] - Tencent also launched five new open-source 3D generation models, improving generation speed, detail, and material expression, along with an upgraded 3D AI creation engine that supports multi-view input and model optimization [2][24] - Kunlun Wanwei has open-sourced the Skywork R1V multimodal reasoning model, achieving top scores in logical reasoning and mathematical analysis on benchmark tests, and successfully transferring text reasoning capabilities to visual tasks [3][25] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a positive outlook for the AI industry chain, recommending attention to investment opportunities in the IaaS layer, specifically highlighting companies such as Microsoft (MSFT), Google (GOOGL), Meta (META), and Amazon (AMAZON) [4][26]

Group 1: Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure - Fiscal revenue pressure remains, with public fiscal revenue in January-February 2025 down by 1.6% year-on-year, compared to a 1.3% increase in 2024[3] - Public fiscal expenditure increased by 3.4% year-on-year in January-February 2025, slightly down from 3.6% in 2024[3] - Government fund revenue decreased by 10.7% year-on-year, while government fund expenditure increased by 1.2%[3] Group 2: Expenditure Structure - In January-February 2025, public fiscal expenditure totaled 450.96 billion yuan, with central government expenditure accounting for 11.6% and local government expenditure 88.4%[4] - The highest growth rates in public fiscal expenditure were seen in debt interest payments (19.7%), science and technology (10.6%), and education (7.7%) compared to 2024[4] - Expenditure on social security and employment grew by 6.7%, while spending on cultural tourism and health showed modest increases[4] Group 3: Revenue Structure - Total public fiscal revenue was 438.56 billion yuan, with central fiscal revenue down by 5.8% year-on-year and local fiscal revenue up by 2.0%[5] - Tax revenue accounted for 82.9% of total revenue, with a year-on-year decline of 3.9%, while non-tax revenue increased by 11.0%[5] - Major tax categories showed varied performance, with personal income tax increasing by 26.7%, while corporate income tax fell by 10.4%[5] Group 4: Land Use Rights and Government Fund - Government fund revenue from land use rights decreased by 15.7% year-on-year, while government fund expenditure related to land use rights fell by 19.2%[6] - Despite declining land use rights revenue, government fund expenditure maintained positive growth, indicating a focus on counter-cyclical fiscal policy[7]