英大证券研究所证券研究报告 金 点 策 略 晨 报 2025 年 3 月 20 日 市场或进入存量博弈阶段，短期震荡回踩不改慢牛格局 总量视角 【A 股大势研判】 操作上，一是短期内应避开前期被过度炒作且业绩尚未明朗的题材股，重点 关注年报季中业绩超预期的方向；二是可逢低布局大金融、顺周期、高股息率或 低估值消费板块；三是保持仓位的灵活性，充分利用市场震荡进行高抛低吸操作。 分析师：惠祥凤 执业证书编号：S0990513100001 电话：0755-83007028 邮箱：huixf@ydzq.sgcc.com.cn 请务必阅读最后一页的免责条款 1 观点： 金点策略晨报 研报内容 总量研究 周三晨报提醒，成交萎缩下或有震荡，另外，3400—3500 点区间存在去年套 牢盘压力，需反复震荡消化抛压，市场需要时间完成筹码交换与整固。操作上， 短期内应避开前期被过度炒作且业绩尚未明朗的题材股，重点关注年报季中业绩 超预期的方向。 市场走势如我们预期，周三沪深三大指数窄幅震荡，小幅收跌，两市成交额 不足 1.5 万亿元。盘面上看，电力、银行等高股息率个股走强偏强。上周以来截 至当前，市场高低切换明显，风格趋于均衡。 ...

英大证券研究所证券研究报告 2025 年 3 月 20 日 市场或进入存量博弈阶段，短期震荡回踩不改慢牛格局 总量视角 【A 股大势研判】 周三晨报提醒，成交萎缩下或有震荡，另外，3400—3500 点区间存在去年套 牢盘压力，需反复震荡消化抛压，市场需要时间完成筹码交换与整固。操作上， 短期内应避开前期被过度炒作且业绩尚未明朗的题材股，重点关注年报季中业绩 超预期的方向。 市场走势如我们预期，周三沪深三大指数窄幅震荡，小幅收跌，两市成交额 不足 1.5 万亿元。盘面上看，电力、银行等高股息率个股走强偏强。上周以来截 至当前，市场高低切换明显，风格趋于均衡。光通信、算力、半导体等成长板块 涨势放缓，而电力、公用事业、银行等低位板块上扬，有色、消费以及新能源等 板块得到资金阶段青睐。 近期成交出现萎缩，周三两市成交额不足 1.5 万亿元，短期进入存量博弈阶 段。相比此前动辄 1.8 万亿以上的相对成交额，这里指数短期继续上行力度或有 欠缺，而市场也或进入短期的存量博弈时刻。 当前，市场逐步进入 3 月下旬以及 4 月的业绩验证临界点，另一方面，外部 扰动与内部政策节奏的博弈。如果者海外不利因素继续扩大，A 股情 ...

英大证券研究所证券研究报告 后市行情如何演绎？我们认为，短期市场流动性相对充裕以及政策持续发力 下，震荡上行的慢牛格局依旧是主基调。后市指数走势将进入政策与经济基本面 验证期。若货币及消费刺激等政策落地节奏超预期，指数有望挑战更高点位。同 时，观察科技、消费等板块的业绩兑现情况，也将成为行情能否持续的关键。不 过，阶段也还有扰动。如果政策发力滞后或者海外不利因素继续扩大，A 股情绪 可能会受到一定干扰。 操作上，可逢低布局大金融、顺周期、高股息率或低估值消费板块，业绩超 预期的标的也值得重点关注。不过，一季度末至二季度初为财报密集披露期，部 分高估值或缺乏业绩支撑的个股面临回调压力（当然也包括连续大涨后的部分科 技成长股）。不过，科技股中长期牛市逻辑未变，而板块也正从此前的题材炒作 逐步向业绩兑现过度。在此期间，投资者可减少波动大的科技股仓位，如果在此 期间科技股出现回调，则可择机低吸业绩确定性强的科技标的。 请务必阅读最后一页的免责条款 1 观点： 金 点 策 略 晨 报 2025 年 3 月 18 日 震荡慢牛仍是主基调，关注业绩超预期标的 分析师：惠祥凤 执业证书编号：S0990513100001 电话 ...

英大证券研究所证券研究报告 金 点 策 略 晨 报 2025 年 3 月 19 日 成交萎缩下或有震荡，关注业绩超预期标的 观点： 请务必阅读最后一页的免责条款 1 金点策略晨报 研报内容 总量研究 总量视角 【A 股大势研判】 周二沪深三大指数震荡回升收红，延续此前的上行趋势，不过，两市成交额 继续萎缩，市场分化，板块轮动加快，短期市场动力具有一定的不确定性。另外， 3400—3500 点区间存在去年套牢盘压力，需反复震荡消化抛压，市场需要时间完 成筹码交换与整固。 不过，我们认为，震荡上行的慢牛格局依旧是主基调。后市指数走势将进入 政策与经济基本面验证期。若货币及消费刺激等政策落地节奏超预期，指数有望 挑战更高点位。同时，观察科技、消费等板块的业绩兑现情况，也将成为行情能 否持续的关键。不过，阶段也还有扰动。如果政策发力滞后或者海外不利因素继 续扩大，A 股情绪可能会受到一定干扰。 操作上，一是短期内应避开前期被过度炒作且业绩尚未明朗的题材股，重点 关注年报季中业绩超预期的方向；二是可对地产后周期、可选消费等板块的估值 修复机会保持跟踪，仍然采取择机低吸的策略；三是保持仓位的灵活性，充分利 用市场震荡进行 ...

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Strongly Outperforming the Market," indicating a positive outlook with expectations that the industry index will outperform the CSI 300 index over the next six months [16]. Core Viewpoints - The report suggests that the A-share market is currently experiencing a slow upward trend, characterized by a "slow bull" market. The market is expected to enter a verification period for policies and economic fundamentals, with potential for higher index levels if monetary and consumption stimulus policies exceed expectations [2][8]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the performance of technology and consumer sectors, as their earnings results will be crucial for the sustainability of the market rally [2][8]. - The report advises investors to avoid overhyped stocks with unclear earnings and to focus on companies that are expected to report better-than-expected annual results during the reporting season [2][8]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - On March 19, the three major indices in the A-share market showed a mixed performance, with the market continuing to experience fluctuations and sector rotations. The trading volume has been declining, indicating uncertainty in short-term market dynamics [4][5]. - The report notes that the 3400-3500 point range is under pressure from last year's trapped positions, requiring time for the market to digest selling pressure and complete the exchange of shares [4][8]. Sector Performance - The report highlights that gold and industrial mother machine sectors have shown strong performance, driven by favorable policies and market conditions. The gold sector benefits from declining inflation rates and increased demand for safe-haven assets due to global trade tensions [6][7]. - The industrial mother machine sector is expected to receive policy support, as it aligns with national strategies for enhancing supply chain resilience and technological independence. Recent tax incentives for R&D expenses in this sector further bolster its attractiveness [7][8]. Investment Strategy - The report recommends a flexible investment strategy, suggesting that investors should take advantage of market fluctuations for high sell-low buy operations. It also encourages tracking valuation recovery opportunities in the real estate and discretionary consumption sectors [2][8].

Investment Rating - The report rates the electricity energy industry as "Outperforming the Market" [1][55]. Core Viewpoints - The industry is expected to outperform the CSI 300 index over the next six months due to favorable fundamentals [55]. - Recent performance shows that the electricity equipment index has outperformed the CSI 300 index by 0.03 percentage points during the period from March 10 to March 14, 2025 [11][14]. - The report highlights significant growth in electricity consumption and investment in the power sector, indicating a robust market environment [20][31]. Market Performance - The CSI 300 index increased by 1.59%, while the electricity equipment index rose by 1.61% during the period from March 10 to March 14, 2025, ranking 16th among 31 first-level industries [11][14]. - Among the sub-sectors of electricity energy, other power equipment III, distribution equipment, and thermal services had the highest increases, with respective gains of 10.61%, 4.14%, and 3.86% [18]. Electricity Industry Operation - In December 2024, the total electricity consumption reached 883.5 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 3.27%, with a cumulative total of 9852.1 billion kWh for the year, reflecting a growth of 6.81% [20]. - The newly added power generation capacity for the year was 43.323 million kW, marking a year-on-year increase of 17.38% [21]. - The average utilization hours of power generation equipment were 3442 hours, a decrease of 150 hours year-on-year [27]. New Power System Situation - As of March 12, 2025, the prices of upstream raw materials for photovoltaic (PV) components are at a low, but there are signs of a turning point for PV modules and glass [31]. - By the end of 2024, China's operational energy storage projects reached a cumulative installed capacity of 137.9 GW, a year-on-year increase of 59.9% [38]. - The lithium carbonate price was reported at 73,900 yuan per ton as of March 14, 2025, showing a slight decrease from the previous week [40]. - The total number of charging infrastructure units reached 13.4514 million by the end of February 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 49.07% [44].

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "stronger than the market," indicating a positive outlook with expectations that the industry index will outperform the CSI 300 index over the next six months [19]. Core Viewpoints - The report anticipates a "slow bull" market for A-shares in the medium to long term, with structural bull market characteristics prevailing despite potential short-term fluctuations [2][10]. - The human-shaped robot sector has seen significant growth, with a nearly 50% increase since January 7, 2025, while the overall robotics industry has risen approximately 25% during the same period [7][10]. - The semiconductor sector is also experiencing strong performance, driven by increasing global demand for AI and high-performance computing, with expectations of over 15% growth in the global semiconductor market by 2025 [8][10]. Summary by Sections A-share Market Overview - The report notes that the A-share market is currently in a phase of overall recovery, with major indices showing collective gains after recent adjustments [5][10]. - The market sentiment is active, with a total trading volume of 17,210 billion yuan, and major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index showing positive movements [6][10]. Sector Performance - The human-shaped robot sector is highlighted as a long-term investment opportunity, supported by strong internal growth dynamics and favorable government policies, with expected annual revenue growth exceeding 20% during the 14th Five-Year Plan [7][10]. - The semiconductor sector is projected to benefit from national policy support and increasing market demand, with a forecasted market size of 697.1 billion USD in 2025, reflecting an 11% year-on-year growth [8][10]. Future Market Expectations - The report emphasizes the expectation of more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies in 2025, which are anticipated to support economic recovery and shift demand from exports to domestic consumption [3][11]. - The upcoming "Two Sessions" in March 2025 will be crucial for determining the economic targets and policies that will guide market movements [3][11].

英大证券研究所证券研究报告 金 点 策 略 晨 报 2025 年 3 月 18 日 震荡慢牛仍是主基调，关注业绩超预期标的 观点： 总量视角 【A 股大势研判】 金点策略晨报 分析师：惠祥凤 执业证书编号：S0990513100001 电话：0755-83007028 邮箱：huixf@ydzq.sgcc.com.cn 周一沪深三大指数涨跌不一，大消费板块相对强势，但也有分化，前期走强 的科技板块走势略有放缓，大资金调仓行为或致使指数震荡。另外，3400—3500 点区间存在去年套牢盘压力，需反复震荡消化抛压，市场需要时间完成筹码交换 与整固。 后市行情如何演绎？我们认为，短期市场流动性相对充裕以及政策持续发力 下，震荡上行的慢牛格局依旧是主基调。后市指数走势将进入政策与经济基本面 验证期。若货币及消费刺激等政策落地节奏超预期，指数有望挑战更高点位。同 时，观察科技、消费等板块的业绩兑现情况，也将成为行情能否持续的关键。不 过，阶段也还有扰动。如果政策发力滞后或者海外不利因素继续扩大，A 股情绪 可能会受到一定干扰。 操作上，可逢低布局大金融、顺周期、高股息率或低估值消费板块，业绩超 预期的标的也值得重点关注 ...

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "in line with the market," indicating a stable fundamental outlook, with expectations that the industry index will follow the performance of the CSI 300 index over the next six months [17]. Core Insights - The report suggests that the short-term market may experience a phase of volatility and pullback, which should be viewed as a washout behavior. The upcoming National People's Congress (NPC) will set the annual economic targets, including decisions on special government bond issuance and deficit adjustments, which are crucial for market attention [2][4][8]. - It is recommended that investors maintain a flexible investment strategy, adjusting their portfolios based on sector performance and market dynamics. Specifically, for technology stocks that have seen significant gains, it may be prudent to reduce holdings to lock in profits, while still maintaining a long-term bullish outlook on the technology sector [2][9]. - The report highlights that sectors such as pharmaceuticals and new energy, which have undergone substantial corrections in recent years, present potential investment opportunities [4][6][7]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The report notes that the market is expected to face short-term adjustments, with technology stocks being a primary drag on performance. The ChiNext 50 index fell over 1.50%, reflecting cautious market sentiment and rapid fund rotation among sectors [5][9]. - On March 4, 2025, the NPC will commence, and the decisions made regarding economic targets and fiscal policies will be pivotal for market direction [2][4]. Sector Analysis - **New Energy Sector**: The report indicates that the new energy sector, including battery and solid-state battery stocks, has shown strong performance and is expected to continue benefiting from ongoing demand driven by carbon neutrality goals and the rapid development of the electric vehicle industry [6][8]. - **Pharmaceutical Sector**: The pharmaceutical and medical sectors have also seen collective gains, with the report suggesting that the sector is undervalued and poised for recovery due to factors such as aging demographics and previous price corrections [7][8]. - **Controlled Nuclear Fusion Stocks**: Stocks related to controlled nuclear fusion have surged due to favorable news, although the report advises caution regarding the sustainability of this rally [7].

英大证券研究所·证券研究报告 策 略 晨 报 2025 年 3 月 5 日 多重因素影响下,市场或仍有震荡,关注"两会"政策动向 分析师:惠祥凤 执业证书编号: S0990513100001 电话: 0755-83007028 邮箱: huixf@ydzq.sgcc.com.cn 观点 : 总量视角 【A 股大势研判】 周二沪深三大指数涨跌不一,军工及半导体板块大涨,科技股出现反弹,并 一度带领指数上行。不过,从成交量上看,A 股两市成交额再度萎缩,市场反弹 动力略有不足。近期 A 股成交额持续回落,从 2 月 21 日的 2 万多亿降至不足 1.5 万亿,市场活跃度显著降温,市场容易陷入存量博弈;从板块方面看,AI、 机器人行业(连在一起读)等前期主线退潮后,固态电池、军工等热点快速轮动 但缺乏持续性,显示资金追高意愿不足;从外部环境看,贸易摩擦升级与美股波 动加剧市场不确定性。 因此,短期来看,A 股迎来两会周期下,随着热点的分化以及成交的萎缩, 整体或进入震荡阶段。操作上,建议规避高估值科技股回调风险。不过,中期看, 政策支持与经济复苏预期仍为市场提供支撑,市场阶段的调整或仍是整体上行中 的洗盘。可逢低 ...