英大证券研究所证券研究报告 金 点 策 略 晨 报 不过，当前关税的实质性影响以及市场基本面仍有隐忧。企业盈利尚未全面 改善，担忧仍有延续。此外，外部扰动未消除。美国加征关税的潜在影响及美股 波动仍可能影响 A 股风险偏好。 后续要关注国内政策的对冲力度。考虑两会中设定的 2025 年的经济目标， 预计后续财政、货币政策都会加大刺激力度。中期支撑基础和提振动力依旧下， 我们仍看好市场中期向好的趋势。因此，短期波动不改中期慢牛格局。接下来又 该如何应对呢？操作上，首先，规避出口关联度高的行业；其次，短期聚焦政策 红利与防御性资产。政策受益方面：军工、半导体、农业等板块仍具弹性。而防 御性配置上，消费、公用事业等低估值高股息资产；最后，中长期布局盈利改善 与成长逻辑。短线高手可高抛低吸。 分析师：惠祥凤 2025 年 4 月 10 日 四大利好助力 A 股反弹，但外部扰动仍未消除，高抛低吸或是占优策略 观点： 总量视角 【A 股大势研判】 周三沪深三大指数继续反弹，半导体板块及军工概念股大涨。主要有以下几 个方面的利好：一是国家队紧急驰援。中央汇金等国家队迅速出手。通过 ETF 增 持，给市场注入流动性；二是上市 ...

英大证券研究所证券研究报告 对于 A 股市场来说，短期对出口链影响较大。从行业角度来看，出口关联度 高的行业无疑将受到最直接且显著的影响。风险偏好方面,"对等关税"使得避 险情绪升温，资金流向或发生改变。在 A 股市场，资金流向或出现变化。一方面， 资金涌入避险板块，另一方面，资金从高风险、不确定性较高的板块流出，导致 部分科技股、成长股遭受抛售。市场整体观望情绪浓厚。上周四的市场也验证了 上述逻辑，上周四沪深三大指数集体调整。盘面上看，大消费、贵金属及电力等 防御性板块走强，出口占比较高的板块个股表现不佳，科技股也出现大面积下跌。 每 周 投 资 早 参 2025 年 4 月 7 日 美国"对等关税"落地，对 A 股有哪些影响？地量是否见地价？ 执业证书编号：S0990513100001 总量视角 【A 股大势研判】 当地时间 4 月 2 日，美国总统特朗普在白宫签署两项关于所谓"对等关税"的 行政令，宣布美国对贸易伙伴设立 10%的"最低基准关税"，并对某些贸易伙伴征 收更高关税。具体关税税率可查阅相关新闻报道。 商务部新闻发言人就美方宣布"对等关税"发表谈话：中方对此坚决反对， 并将坚决采取反制措施维护 ...

Core Views - Recent market adjustments are attributed to a divergence in market styles, with high-flying technology stocks experiencing volatility while undervalued large-cap stocks perform relatively well [2][15][16] - The market is currently in a phase of cautious sentiment, influenced by factors such as tightening liquidity, upcoming earnings reports, and external uncertainties like U.S. tariffs on China [3][16][19] Market Overview - The A-share market has seen a decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping by 0.40%, the Shenzhen Component by 0.75%, and the ChiNext Index by 1.12% over the past week [7][19] - The total trading volume across the two exchanges was 11,190 billion, indicating a significant reduction in market activity [6][19] Sector Performance - The healthcare sector has shown resilience, with pharmaceutical stocks gaining traction due to their low valuations and potential for recovery in 2025 [8][9] - Precious metals have seen renewed interest as investors seek safe-haven assets amid rising global trade tensions and declining inflation rates [9][10] - Chemical stocks experienced fluctuations, with some segments like titanium dioxide seeing price increases, but overall performance remains mixed [10][11] Future Outlook - The market is expected to continue its phase of adjustment, with potential opportunities for low-cost acquisitions as conditions stabilize [4][17] - Short-term pressures on small-cap stocks are anticipated, while large-cap stocks with stable dividends may continue to attract investment [4][17][18] - The industrial machinery sector is highlighted as a promising area for investment, supported by government policies aimed at enhancing manufacturing capabilities [14][18]

Market Overview - The report indicates that the A-share market is currently experiencing a phase of adjustment, influenced by uncertainties related to overseas tariffs and the upcoming earnings season, suggesting that the downward trend may not yet be over [3][9] - The total trading volume in the market remains below 1.2 trillion yuan, indicating a lack of strength in the overall rebound, with market participants showing a cautious sentiment [3][11] Industry Insights - Data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that in January-February 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size was 910.99 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%. For the entire year of 2024, the total profit was 74,310.50 billion yuan, down 3.3% year-on-year, although December 2024 saw a turnaround with profits increasing by 11.0% compared to November [4][9] - The chemical sector has shown strength, particularly with the price of chemical products like double-seasoned tetramethylol increasing significantly, from 20,000 yuan per ton in October 2024 to 55,000 yuan per ton in March 2025, marking a 175% increase [8] Investment Strategy - The report suggests avoiding stocks that have been excessively speculated without clear earnings support, while focusing on sectors expected to outperform during the earnings season [5][10] - It recommends positioning in sectors such as large financials, cyclical stocks, and high-dividend or undervalued consumer stocks during market dips, while maintaining flexibility in trading strategies to capitalize on market fluctuations [5][10] Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the current market adjustment may create favorable buying opportunities in the future, with a medium to long-term positive outlook supported by economic resilience and ongoing policy support [4][10] - The overall market sentiment is expected to remain cautious in the short term, but the potential for a gradual recovery exists, indicating a slow bull market trend [10]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a significant decline in trading volume, dropping to less than 1.3 trillion yuan, primarily due to a pullback in the technology sector and tightening liquidity at the end of the quarter [2][5][9] - Investor risk appetite has decreased, influenced by uncertainties surrounding domestic economic validation and U.S. tariffs on China, leading to increased cautious sentiment among investors [3][9][12] - The market showed a narrow fluctuation with the three major indices closing slightly lower, indicating a lack of strength in the overall rebound [10][12] Sector Performance - The photovoltaic equipment sector saw a rise, supported by substantial growth in new installed capacity and improving profitability for downstream companies as silicon material prices stabilize [7][8] - The industrial mother machine concept stocks also experienced gains, driven by the establishment of a high-end intelligent equipment industrial base in Shanghai, which aligns with national policies promoting manufacturing upgrades [8][9] Future Outlook - The report maintains a cautious outlook, suggesting that the downward trend in indices may not have ended, with potential for further declines in the short term [3][11] - Investors are advised to avoid speculative stocks lacking performance support and focus on sectors with strong earnings expectations during the upcoming earnings season [11] - Long-term support for the market remains due to resilient economic growth, ongoing policy support, and expectations of profit recovery, indicating a slow bull market despite short-term adjustments [3][11]

英大证券研究所证券研究报告 2025 年 3 月 26 日 成交大幅萎缩，观望情绪增加 分析师：惠祥凤 执业证书编号：S0990513100001 电话：0755-83007028 邮箱：huixf@ydzq.sgcc.com.cn 观点： 总量视角 【A 股大势研判】 周二晨报提醒，周一 A 股市场盘中显著分化，阶段性的调整或未结束。造成 这种分化的原因可能如下：一方面，财报效应与风格切换预期；另一方面，流动 性收缩与资金偏好转向。自 3 月科技股分化以来，市场存量资金博弈明显，资金 倾向于规避业绩不确定性高的小盘股，转向分红稳定、估值低的大盘蓝筹之际， 资金更趋于谨慎。接下来又将如何演绎呢？我们认为，首先，短期小盘股或仍有 压力。其次，中期看，市场风格可能趋于均衡。操作上，一是短期内应避开前期 被过度炒作且业绩尚未明朗的题材股；二是可逢低布局大金融、顺周期、高股息 率或低估值消费板块。 市场走势如我们预期，周二沪深三大指数窄幅震荡，尾盘收绿，短期延续调 整态势。盘面上看，煤炭、电力、银行、消费等防御性板块走强，前期热门的 TMT 赛道回调，泛 AI 主题、人行机器人等概念股跌幅居前。 周二两市成交萎缩至不 ...

英大证券研究所证券研究报告 2025 年 3 月 26 日 成交大幅萎缩，观望情绪增加 分析师：惠祥凤 执业证书编号：S0990513100001 电话：0755-83007028 邮箱：huixf@ydzq.sgcc.com.cn 请务必阅读最后一页的免责条款 1 金 点 策 略 晨 报 观点： 总量视角 【A 股大势研判】 周二晨报提醒，周一 A 股市场盘中显著分化，阶段性的调整或未结束。造成 这种分化的原因可能如下：一方面，财报效应与风格切换预期；另一方面，流动 性收缩与资金偏好转向。自 3 月科技股分化以来，市场存量资金博弈明显，资金 倾向于规避业绩不确定性高的小盘股，转向分红稳定、估值低的大盘蓝筹之际， 资金更趋于谨慎。接下来又将如何演绎呢？我们认为，首先，短期小盘股或仍有 压力。其次，中期看，市场风格可能趋于均衡。操作上，一是短期内应避开前期 被过度炒作且业绩尚未明朗的题材股；二是可逢低布局大金融、顺周期、高股息 率或低估值消费板块。 市场走势如我们预期，周二沪深三大指数窄幅震荡，尾盘收绿，短期延续调 整态势。盘面上看，煤炭、电力、银行、消费等防御性板块走强，前期热门的 TMT 赛道回调，泛 AI ...

英大证券研究所证券研究报告 2025 年 3 月 25 日 分析师：惠祥凤 执业证书编号：S0990513100001 电话：0755-83007028 邮箱：huixf@ydzq.sgcc.com.cn A 股市场分化下，后市如何演绎？ 接下来又将如何演绎呢？我们认为，首先，短期小盘股或仍有压力。退市制 度深化、年报业绩披露在即，叠加一季度经济数据落地前的观望情绪，小盘股尤 其是 ST 板块可能继续承压，而一旦阶段调整后，部分基本面扎实、行业前景向 好（如科技）的中小盘股可能迎来超跌反弹；其次，中期看，市场风格可能趋于 均衡。在财报季和政策过渡期，业绩确定性高、分红稳定的蓝筹股或持续受益。 后市若稳增长政策发力见效，小盘股中的高景气赛道仍会有估值修复，市场有望 逐步迎来均衡。 请务必阅读最后一页的免责条款 1 金 点 策 略 晨 报 造成这种分化的原因可能如下：一方面，财报效应与风格切换预期。市场 进入 3 月下旬以及 4 月的业绩验证临界点，市场预期资金可能提前转向业绩确定 性更高的大盘蓝筹股，导致中小市值风格胜率和超额收益回落；另一方面，流动 性收缩与资金偏好转向。近期市场成交基本于 1.5 万亿元附近 ...

Market Overview - The report indicates that the A-share market is facing pressure as it has fallen below the 3400-point mark, with significant selling pressure from last year's trapped investors in the 3400-3500 point range [4][19] - The recent trading volume has shrunk, suggesting a lack of upward momentum in the short term, and the market may experience further adjustments [4][19] - Despite short-term fluctuations, the report maintains a positive outlook for the medium term, supported by economic resilience, ongoing policy support, and profit recovery expectations [4][19] Sector Analysis Marine Economy - Marine economy stocks, particularly shipbuilding and marine engineering, have shown resilience and growth, driven by government policies promoting the development of the marine economy [10][12] - The report highlights the strategic importance of deep-sea technology as a key area for development, which is expected to bolster the shipbuilding industry [10][12] Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) - The TCM sector has been active, with government initiatives aimed at enhancing quality and promoting the industry, indicating potential structural upgrades and increased market concentration [13] - The report suggests that 2025 may see significant improvements in the pharmaceutical sector, particularly for TCM products, due to the aging population and recovery in consumer demand [13] Renewable Energy - The renewable energy sector, particularly wind power equipment, is showing signs of strength, with expectations for a technical rebound as the market adjusts from previous declines [14] - The report emphasizes the ongoing demand for renewable energy solutions in line with national carbon neutrality goals, making this sector attractive for investment [14] Financial and High Dividend Stocks - The report recommends focusing on financial stocks and high dividend yield stocks as they are expected to perform well in the current low-interest-rate environment [16] - It advises investors to selectively enter these stocks during market dips, as they typically come from stable and profitable companies [16] Precious Metals - Precious metals, particularly gold, have seen increased interest as a safe-haven asset amid rising global trade tensions and declining inflation rates [17] - The report warns of potential corrections in gold prices after recent increases, advising investors to be cautious [17] Brain-Computer Interface Technology - The brain-computer interface sector has gained attention due to recent technological advancements and government support for neurotechnology, indicating a promising investment opportunity [18] - The report suggests a long-term positive outlook for this sector while advising short-term trading strategies [18]

英大证券研究所证券研究报告 金 点 策 略 晨 报 2025 年 3 月 20 日 市场或进入存量博弈阶段，短期震荡回踩不改慢牛格局 总量视角 【A 股大势研判】 操作上，一是短期内应避开前期被过度炒作且业绩尚未明朗的题材股，重点 关注年报季中业绩超预期的方向；二是可逢低布局大金融、顺周期、高股息率或 低估值消费板块；三是保持仓位的灵活性，充分利用市场震荡进行高抛低吸操作。 分析师：惠祥凤 执业证书编号：S0990513100001 电话：0755-83007028 邮箱：huixf@ydzq.sgcc.com.cn 请务必阅读最后一页的免责条款 1 观点： 金点策略晨报 研报内容 总量研究 周三晨报提醒，成交萎缩下或有震荡，另外，3400—3500 点区间存在去年套 牢盘压力，需反复震荡消化抛压，市场需要时间完成筹码交换与整固。操作上， 短期内应避开前期被过度炒作且业绩尚未明朗的题材股，重点关注年报季中业绩 超预期的方向。 市场走势如我们预期，周三沪深三大指数窄幅震荡，小幅收跌，两市成交额 不足 1.5 万亿元。盘面上看，电力、银行等高股息率个股走强偏强。上周以来截 至当前，市场高低切换明显，风格趋于均衡。 ...