[Table_RightTitle] [Table_Title] 重视人工智能、数据要素产业链投资机遇 [Table_ReportType] ——计算机行业周观点(11.18-11.24) [Table_ReportDate] 2024 年 11 月 25 日 [Table_Summary] 行业核心观点： 证 券 研 究 报 告 行业周观点 行业研究 3236 上周（11.18-11.22）沪深300指数下跌2.60%，申万计算机行业下跌 3.27%，落后于指数0.67pct，在申万一级行业中排名第26位。本周建议 关注AI大模型应用的加速落地以及数据要素的价值释放。人工智能方 面，近期海内外的AI大模型持续迭代更新，通过技术创新赋能AI产品应 用，为AI Agent、AI办公、AI营销广告等场景的应用落地提供了更扎实 的基础，头部公司都在积极布局AI Agent等场景应用，建议关注AI应用 的创新落地和产品力提升；AI产品的创新研发和AI应用的加速落地，有 望进一步提升对AI算力的需求，同时有望更好的落地端侧应用，带动 AIPC、具身智能等AI终端的需求。数据要素方面，伴随国内数据要素政 策的不断落地，数 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [3] Core Viewpoints - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities in 6G construction, satellite internet, and low-altitude economy industries. The low-altitude economy is entering a new development stage with eVTOL pilot projects in six cities. The completion of a 6G prototype test by China Telecom Research Institute provides a practical basis for satellite-ground integration research, which is expected to promote 6G technology applications. Shanghai Yanshin Satellite Technology Co., Ltd. has signed a memorandum of cooperation with Brazil's state-owned telecommunications company, marking the beginning of overseas business operations [35][36]. Summary by Sections 1. Core Viewpoints and Investment Suggestions - The report emphasizes investment opportunities in 6G, satellite internet, and low-altitude economy sectors. It highlights the significance of the eVTOL pilot projects and the completion of the 6G prototype test, which supports the integration of satellite and ground communication [35][36]. 2. Industry Dynamics - Low-altitude Economy: The central air traffic management committee will conduct eVTOL trials in six cities [40]. - 5G: The 2024 China 5G+ Industrial Internet Conference was held in Wuhan [41]. - 6G: China Telecom completed a prototype test for 6G technology [42]. - Satellite Internet: Yanshin Satellite has initiated overseas business with a partnership in Brazil [42]. - SpaceX successfully conducted its sixth test flight of the Starship [42]. - Vehicle-road cloud: China Unicom released its integrated solution for smart connected vehicles [44]. - Data Elements: The National Data Bureau is soliciting opinions on the construction guidelines for national data infrastructure [45][46]. 3. Market Review - The report notes a decline in the communication industry, with the SW communication industry index down 3.78%, ranking 29th among 31 industries. The average daily trading volume decreased by 19.82% compared to the previous week [48][55]. The current PE ratio for the SW communication industry is 19.41, significantly below the historical average of 34.04 [53].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating an expected relative increase of over 10% in the industry index compared to the broader market within the next six months [12]. Core Insights - In October 2024, China's excavator sales reached 16,791 units, marking a year-on-year increase of 15.1%. Domestic sales accounted for 8,266 units, up 21.6%, while exports totaled 8,525 units, up 9.46% [4][5]. - Loader sales in October 2024 were 8,355 units, reflecting an 11.1% year-on-year growth. Domestic sales decreased by 7.08% to 4,032 units, while exports surged by 36% to 4,323 units [4][5]. - The gradual implementation of debt reduction policies is expected to stabilize and boost the construction machinery market. A recent resolution approved an increase of 6 trillion yuan in local government debt limits to replace hidden debts, which will enhance funding for infrastructure projects [4][5]. Summary by Sections Excavator Sales - October 2024 excavator sales were 16,791 units, a 15.1% increase year-on-year. Domestic sales were 8,266 units (up 21.6%), and exports were 8,525 units (up 9.46%). For the first ten months of 2024, total excavator sales were 164,200 units, a 0.47% increase year-on-year [4][5]. Loader Sales - October 2024 loader sales reached 8,355 units, an 11.1% increase year-on-year. Domestic sales were 4,032 units (down 7.08%), while exports were 4,323 units (up 36%). For the first ten months of 2024, total loader sales were 90,200 units, a 5.29% increase year-on-year [4][5]. Policy Impact - The debt reduction policy is anticipated to revitalize infrastructure projects that were previously halted, leading to increased demand for construction machinery. The policy aims to replace hidden debts with a total of 10 trillion yuan in resources over five years, which will support capital expenditures in various infrastructure projects [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the electronic industry [5]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the U.S. may intensify export controls against China, particularly targeting advanced processes, which could lead to a significant impact on around 200 Chinese chip companies [34][17]. - The first domestic computing Power of Choice (PoC) platform has been launched, which is expected to accelerate the development of domestic AI computing capabilities [34]. - In the medium to long term, the intensification of technological friction is anticipated to drive upgrades in Chinese chip manufacturers' technologies and enhance their market share in the semiconductor supply chain [34]. Industry Dynamics - **Foldable Smartphones**: In Q3 2024, China's foldable smartphone sales reached 3.54 million units, marking a 79% year-on-year increase and a 35% quarter-on-quarter increase, with a market penetration rate of 4.1% [38]. - **Consumer Electronics**: The global personal smart audio device market saw a strong rebound in Q3 2024, with total shipments nearing 126 million units, reflecting a 15% year-on-year growth [39]. - **Panels**: As of late November 2024, prices for TV and laptop panels remained stable, while display panel prices continued to decline, albeit at a slower rate [39]. - **Domestic Substitution**: New U.S. export control measures are expected to be announced, potentially affecting 200 Chinese chip companies and restricting their access to U.S. products [39]. - **AI Chips**: The launch of the first domestic computing PoC platform is expected to facilitate the commercial application of domestic computing capabilities [39]. Market Performance - The report notes that the SW electronic sector's current PE (TTM) is 67.66 times, which is above the historical average of 49.73 times since 2019, indicating a high valuation relative to historical levels [48]. - The average daily trading volume for the electronic sector was 231.77 billion yuan, down 34.11% from the previous week [52]. - Among 471 stocks in the SW electronic sector, 104 stocks rose while 362 fell, resulting in a rise ratio of 22.08% [54].

[Table_Title] 万联晨会 [Table_MeetReportDate] 2024 年 11 月 25 日 星期一 [Table_Summary] 概览 核心观点 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨会纪要 市场研究 3236 【市场回顾】 上周五，A 股低开低走，午后单边下挫大幅收跌，上证指数跌 3.06%， 报 3267.19 点，深证成指跌 3.52%，创业板指跌 3.98%。两市 A 股成 交额 1.79 万亿元人民币，约 4700 股下跌。申万行业方面，全部申万 一级行业下跌，非银金融行业领跌；概念板块方面同样全部下跌，科 创次新股、BC 电池概念跌幅居前。港股方面，香港恒生指数跌 1.89%， 恒生科技指数跌 2.57%。海外方面，美国三大股指全线收涨，道指涨 0.97%，标普 500 指数涨 0.35%，纳指涨 0.16%。欧洲及亚太股市全线 上涨。 【重要新闻】 【李强主持召开国务院常务会议，研究推动平台经济健康发展有关工 作等】国务院总理李强 11 月 22 日主持召开国务院常务会议，研究推 动平台经济健康发展有关工作，讨论《中华人民共和国危险化学品安 全法（草案）》，审议通过《国务院关于修 ...

Group 1: Market Indicators - The A-share major indices declined during the week of November 18 to November 22, with the ChiNext Index experiencing the largest drop of 3.03% [10][11] - The average daily trading volume in the two markets was 17,064.38 billion yuan, a decrease of 21.79% compared to the previous week [18][19] - The electronic sector was the most active, with a trading volume of 11,588.53 billion yuan during the week [18][24] Group 2: Valuation Levels - As of November 22, the dynamic price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board (科创50) was at a historical percentile of approximately 82.39%, the highest among major A-share indices since 2010 [28][30] - By industry, sectors such as coal, electronics, and automotive exceeded the historical 50th percentile in terms of dynamic PE ratios, while sectors like social services and agriculture were below the 10th percentile [30][33] Group 3: Economic News and Policies - The Ministry of Finance announced a local government debt limit of 6 trillion yuan, aimed at enhancing the effectiveness of incremental policies [36] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission emphasized the importance of deepening the two-way opening of the capital market to support high-quality development [36] - The National Development and Reform Commission indicated that new policies would continue to support economic growth and investment, with a focus on enhancing productivity [36][37] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in downstream sectors that have shown significant improvement in performance during the third quarter [41] - Continuous attention is recommended for growth sectors related to new productivity, particularly in electronics, AI computing power, and low-altitude economy [41][42]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the social services industry [2]. Core Insights - As of Q3 2024, the fund's heavy holding ratio in the social services industry is 0.12%, remaining stable compared to Q2 2024. This ratio is below the historical average of 0.58%, indicating significant room for allocation increases. The number of funds holding social services stocks has increased to 339, up by 26 from the previous quarter, with a total market value of 8.325 billion yuan, an increase of 1.705 billion yuan [7][12]. Summary by Sections Heavy Holding Ratio - The heavy holding ratio for the social services industry remains low at 0.12%, ranking 26th among 31 first-level industries, up from 29th in Q2 2024. This is significantly below the five-year average of 0.58%, suggesting substantial potential for increased allocation [7][12]. Sector Analysis - The hotel and restaurant sector's heavy holding ratio is stable at 0.03%, while the tourism and scenic spots sector remains low at 0.02%. The professional services sector has seen a slight rebound, increasing by 0.02 percentage points to 0.06%. The education sector's holding ratio has decreased by 0.01 percentage points to 0.01% [15][19]. Individual Stocks - The top ten stocks in the social services sector account for a combined heavy holding ratio of 0.108%, a slight increase from Q2 2024. Leading stocks include Huace Testing, Shoulu Hotel, Songcheng Performance, and Jinjiang Hotel, with Huace Testing maintaining the highest heavy holding ratio [22][23].

Core Insights - The A-share market showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.07% to close at 3,370.40 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.07% and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.09% [2][4] - The total trading volume in the A-share market reached 1.61 trillion RMB, with over 2,300 stocks experiencing gains [2][4] - In terms of sector performance, the computer and retail industries led the gains, while the telecommunications and oil & petrochemical sectors faced declines [2][4] - Concept sectors such as controllable nuclear fusion and superconducting concepts saw significant increases [2][4] - The Hong Kong market experienced a decline, with the Hang Seng Index dropping by 0.53% and the Hang Seng Tech Index falling by 1.24% [2][4] - In the overseas markets, all three major U.S. indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones up by 1.06%, the S&P 500 rising by 0.53%, and the Nasdaq increasing by 0.03% [2][4] Important News - The Ministry of Commerce issued policies aimed at promoting stable growth in foreign trade, which include expanding the coverage of export credit insurance, increasing financing support for foreign trade enterprises, optimizing cross-border trade settlements, and promoting the development of cross-border e-commerce [5] - Additional measures include supporting the export of specialty agricultural products, importing key equipment and energy resources, and enhancing the capacity for foreign trade maritime security [5]

Core Viewpoints - The A-share market showed a positive trend with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.66% to 3,367.99 points, the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 0.78%, and the ChiNext Index up by 0.5%. The total trading volume in the A-share market reached 1.61 trillion RMB, with over 4,300 stocks rising [1][6] - In the industry performance, the media and comprehensive sectors led the gains, while the banking sector experienced a decline. Concept sectors such as DRG/DIP, Kuaishou, and Sora saw significant increases [1][6] - The Hong Kong market also experienced slight gains, with the Hang Seng Index up by 0.21% and the Hang Seng Tech Index up by 0.41% [1][6] - Internationally, the US stock indices showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones up by 0.32%, the S&P 500 unchanged, and the Nasdaq down by 0.11%. European markets saw slight declines, while most Asia-Pacific markets also fell [1][6] Important News - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of China released new regulations for the photovoltaic manufacturing industry, encouraging a rational layout of photovoltaic projects and promoting cluster development. The minimum capital ratio for new and expanded photovoltaic manufacturing projects is set at 30% [3][6] Industry Insights - In the home appliance sector, public fund holdings have increased for seven consecutive quarters, with significant increases in white goods leaders, robotic vacuum cleaners, and appliance components. However, major black goods stocks have seen reductions in holdings [11] - The total market value of public funds in the home appliance sector reached 138.207 billion RMB by the end of Q3 2024, a 31% increase from Q2 2024, representing 4.38% of the total A-share market value [11] - The white goods sector, particularly Haier, Midea, and Gree, continues to see increased holdings, while black goods such as Hisense have faced reductions. The kitchen and bathroom appliance sectors have shown mixed results, with some stocks gaining and others losing [11] - The outlook for domestic sales is positive due to the implementation of replacement policies, while external sales are expected to benefit from interest rate cuts in the US and contributions from emerging markets [11]

Key Points - The report emphasizes the importance of deepening capital market reforms to strengthen the long-term positive foundation of China's capital markets [2][3] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) aims to promote technological innovation through reforms that enhance the coordination of investment and financing functions in the capital market [2][3] - The CSRC has introduced several policies to support mergers and acquisitions in the technology sector, including the "16 Articles for Sci-Tech Innovation" and "8 Articles for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board" [2][3] - The report highlights the commitment to strong regulation to mitigate risks and protect investor interests, with a focus on improving the effectiveness of investor protection measures [2][3] - The CSRC plans to enhance cross-border investment facilitation and deepen the two-way opening of the capital market, including improving the efficiency of overseas listing processes [2][3] - The report indicates that the ongoing reforms are expected to solidify the long-term positive outlook for China's capital markets and attract long-term capital allocation to the A-share market [2][3]