云南师范大学经济学院副教授 李雪梅 ◇ 本文原载《债券》2026年1月刊 ◇ 作者：云南师范大学经济学院研究生 李昌龙 摘 要 本文基于2021—2024年城投债发行数据，以特殊再融资债为切入点，实证研究了地方政府债务置换对城投债发行定价的影响。研究发现，特殊再融资债的 发行显著降低了城投债的信用利差，该结果在一系列稳健性检验中均成立。分析表明，特殊再融资债同置换债类似，其政策效果主要通过增强地方政府隐 性担保能力这一中介渠道实现。在此基础上，本文从债务治理效能、信用定价改革和财政纪律强化三个方面提出政策建议。 关键词 债务置换 特殊再融资债 城投债 隐性担保能力 研究背景 近年来，我国高度重视地方政府债务风险防控。随着经济下行压力加大和房地产市场深度调整，部分地区的政府偿债能力有所减弱，城投平台公司再融资 难度也相应上升。2023年以来，多省份城投债发行利率出现阶段性上升，信用利差同步扩大，反映出市场对债务可持续性的担忧。在债务化解实践中，我 国逐步形成以置换债和特殊再融资债为主要工具的债务重组路径。置换债自2015年起大规模发行，主要用于置换经审计认定的政府存量债务。而特殊再融 资债是2020年末推出、2 ...

2026年1月20日，在国新办新闻发布会上，财政部副部长廖岷介绍，财政的可持续发展是大国经济的内 在要求，也是一个世界性难题。"2025年，我们继续安排2万亿元置换存量隐性债务额度，同时安排8000 亿元新增专项债券补充地方政府性基金财力，支持化债。各地置换以后，债务平均利息成本降低超2.5 个百分点，大大降低了地方政府负担，增强了地方发展动能。" 《中国经营报》记者了解到，2026年发行的第三批2万亿元置换债，是全国人大常委会批准的6万亿元地 方政府债务限额置换计划的第三年实施内容，与每年8000亿元专项债化债额度共同构成了系统性化债框 架。根据部署，预计到2028年前将地方需消化的隐性债务从14.3万亿元大幅降至2.3万亿元，年均化债压 力缩减至原来的1/6。 中证鹏元研究发展部高级董事吴志武认为，从政策效能来看，2万亿元置换债一方面通过低利率的法定 政府债券置换高成本隐性债务，有效缓解地方当期财政压力。另一方面，债务结构的优化也让地方"轻 装上阵"，原本用于化债的财力资源可更多投向扩内需、科技创新、民生保障等重点领域，提振经营主 体信心。 中诚信国际研究院的统计显示，截至2026年1月11日，今年全国共 ...

Core Viewpoint - The conference emphasized the importance of accelerating the construction of a financial power during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, focusing on the organic unity of qualitative improvement and reasonable quantitative growth, as well as comprehensive, systematic, and leading advancements [2][5]. Group 1: Financial Development - The financial sector in China has achieved historic growth in scale and quality during the "14th Five-Year Plan," laying a solid foundation for building a financial power [5]. - Challenges remain in the financial development landscape, including imbalances in social capital allocation and the need for traditional financing and risk control models to adapt to new economic realities [5][6]. - The "15th Five-Year Plan" suggests focusing on financial services for the real economy, deepening financial system reforms, and enhancing global financial governance [5][6]. Group 2: Manufacturing and New Quality Productivity - The conference highlighted the need to maintain a reasonable proportion of manufacturing in GDP and globally, emphasizing that new quality productivity should not be confined to traditional industrial models [2][8]. - New manufacturing should focus on technology and product innovation, with a concentration of research and development personnel in central cities and urban clusters [10][8]. - The development of emerging and future industries is expected to primarily occur in key regions such as Beijing, Shanghai, and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area [10][8]. Group 3: Policy Optimization - Policies should not only focus on expanding demand and optimizing supply but also on optimizing distribution to create a cohesive system of supply, demand, and distribution [3][12]. - The transition from consumption stimulus policies to income distribution adjustment policies is necessary to enhance the income of low-income groups and ensure that disposable income growth outpaces economic growth [12][11]. Group 4: Debt Management and Reform Investment - The proposal to replace local government debt with national bonds aims to alleviate repayment pressure on local governments, improve their cash flow, and foster economic growth [15][13]. - Investment in reform is crucial, with a focus on using fiscal and monetary policies to support the transitional costs of reforms, thereby facilitating better conditions for future reforms [14][15].

Core Viewpoint - The Henan Provincial Government successfully issued government bonds totaling 5.33742 billion yuan on December 5, 2023, aimed at optimizing debt structure and reducing financing costs [1] Group 1: Bond Issuance Details - The issuance included 3 billion yuan of 30-year new special bonds at an interest rate of 2.48%, intended to supplement government fund resources [1] - Additionally, 800 million yuan of 20-year new special bonds were issued at an interest rate of 2.49% for existing government investment projects [1] - Furthermore, 1.11259 billion yuan of 20-year refinancing special bonds were issued at an interest rate of 2.48% to replace existing hidden debts [1] Group 2: Impact and Future Actions - The issuance completes the local government debt limit set by the Ministry of Finance for Henan Province for the replacement of existing hidden debts in 2025, positively impacting debt structure and financing costs [1] - The Provincial Finance Department will enhance fund management and guide local governments to ensure the precise use of bond funds for replacing high-cost, short-term hidden debts [1] - There will be a continued strict regulatory approach to prevent new illegal borrowing and ensure accountability in the implementation of debt replacement policies [1]

Core Insights - The article discusses China's management of local government debt, emphasizing the importance of strict debt limit controls to support stable economic growth. Group 1: Debt Management and Economic Support - In the first half of the year, China implemented strict limits on local government debt, which is crucial for ensuring stable economic development [1] - The government has arranged for 2 trillion yuan in local government debt limit replacements for hidden debts, with 1.8 trillion yuan of related bonds issued in the first half, completing 90% of the 2025 quota [1] - The average interest cost of the replaced debt has decreased by over 2.5 percentage points [1] Group 2: Transparency and Financial Stability - The Ministry of Finance's research team noted a "multiple benefits" effect, enhancing the transparency of local debt and improving unified debt management [1] - This initiative significantly reduces the repayment pressure on local governments, freeing up more financial resources and policy space to stimulate the microeconomic cycle [1] - The reform of financing platforms is being accelerated, effectively improving the asset quality of financial institutions and enhancing their willingness and ability to lend to the real economy [1] Group 3: Accountability and Regulation - The Ministry of Finance is strictly enforcing a lifelong accountability system for government borrowing and a mechanism for tracing debt issues [1] - A closed-loop management system for hidden debt accountability is being established, utilizing various methods such as audits and inspections to improve the detection of new hidden debts [1] - There is an increased emphasis on publicizing accountability results to serve as a warning and to further enforce financial discipline [1]

Group 1 - The report indicates that local government debt risk prevention and resolution have been effectively implemented in the first half of the year [1] - A total of 2 trillion yuan of local government debt limit was arranged to replace hidden debts, with 1.8 trillion yuan of related replacement bonds issued, completing 90% of the 2025 quota [1] - The average interest cost of the replaced debt has decreased by over 2.5 percentage points [1] Group 2 - The report emphasizes the need to strengthen budget constraints and prohibits the addition of hidden debts as a strict discipline [2] - It calls for a comprehensive management mechanism for hidden debt accountability, utilizing various methods such as auditing and inspections to identify and address new hidden debts [2] - The report advocates for a lifelong accountability system for government borrowing and a mechanism for tracing debt issues [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The report predicts that nickel prices will fluctuate and adjust. Technically, with an increase in positions and a decline in prices, the bearish sentiment is rising, and the lower limit of the range is being tested. It is recommended to wait and see for now [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 119,700 yuan/ton, down 1,250 yuan; the spread between the December - January contracts of Shanghai nickel is -240 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [3]. - The LME 3 - month nickel price is 15,115 dollars/ton, down 135 dollars; the open interest of the main contract of Shanghai nickel is 118,460 lots, up 9,789 lots [3]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel is -31,010 lots, up 3,503 lots; the LME nickel inventory is 252,750 tons, up 648 tons [3]. - The inventory of nickel in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 36,751 tons (weekly), up 676 tons; the LME nickel cancelled warrants total 6,426 tons, unchanged [3]. - The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai nickel is 30,952 tons, down 254 tons [3]. 现货 Market - The SMM 1 nickel spot price is 121,800 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; the spot average price of 1 nickel plate in Yangtze River Non - ferrous is 122,000 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan [3]. - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 dollars/ton, unchanged; the bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 dollars/ton, unchanged [3]. - The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 28,800 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the NI main contract is 2,100 yuan/ton, up 1,050 yuan [3]. - The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is -211.5 dollars/ton, down 6.66 dollars [3]. Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 611.45 million tons, down 23.22 million tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore is 1,479.1 million tons (weekly), down 18.81 million tons [3]. - The average monthly import unit price of nickel ore is 56.72 dollars/ton, down 4.61 dollars; the tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 dollars/wet ton, unchanged [3]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, up 1,120 tons; the total monthly output of nickel iron is 21,700 metal tons, down 300 metal tons [3]. - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 28,570.87 tons, up 4,144.03 tons; the monthly import volume of nickel iron is 1.0853 billion tons, up 0.2112 billion tons [3]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.7627 billion tons, up 24.8 million tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 580,800 tons, up 4,100 tons [3]. Industry News - Lan Fo'an stated that the package debt resolution plan should be further implemented, and the replacement of local government's existing implicit debts should be done well. Not adding new implicit debts is regarded as an "iron - clad discipline", and a unified long - term supervision system for local government debts should be established [3]. - The US ISM manufacturing PMI in October did not rise as expected but fell to 48.7%, contracting for eight consecutive months, with weak demand and employment and cooling inflation [3]. - Federal Reserve Governor Milan believes that the Fed's policy is too tight and a series of 50 - basis - point interest rate cuts should be made to achieve a neutral interest rate [3]. Viewpoint Summary - On the macro - level, the US ISM manufacturing PMI in October declined instead of rising, with weak demand and employment and cooling inflation. On the fundamental level, the Indonesian government's PNBP policy restricts the supply, increasing the cost of nickel resource supply, and the premium of domestic - trade ore remains stable. The supply of Philippine nickel ore is at a high level, but the grade of nickel ore has declined, and the domestic nickel ore inventory is lower than the same period last year [3]. - At the smelting end, newly invested electrolytic nickel projects are being put into production slowly. Due to low nickel prices and cost - end pressure, some smelters are suffering losses and reducing production, so the growth of refined nickel output is expected to be limited [3]. - On the demand side, stainless steel mills show the characteristic of a weak peak season, but with the decline of nickel iron cost, the profit of steel mills has improved, and the planned output is expected to increase. The production and sales of new energy vehicles continue to rise, and ternary batteries contribute a small incremental demand [3]. - Domestic nickel inventory continues to grow, and the market mainly purchases as needed, with the spot premium rising; overseas LME inventory also shows an increase [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The tin market shows a situation of weak supply and demand, and it is expected that tin prices will fluctuate at a high level in the short term. Technically, the decline in positions and price corrections indicate a decrease in the bullish sentiment. It is recommended that previous long positions be held with caution, and attention should be paid to the support levels at 280,000 and 282,000 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for Shanghai tin is 283,730 yuan/ton, down 2,030 yuan; the 12 - 1 - month contract closing price is -330 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan. - The LME 3 - month tin price is 35,915 US dollars/ton, down 265 US dollars. - The main contract holding volume of Shanghai tin is 34,378 lots, down 2,184 lots; the net holding of the top 20 futures is -1,790 lots, down 118 lots. - LME tin total inventory is 2,850 tons, down 25 tons; Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin is 5,919 tons, up 153 tons; Shanghai Futures Exchange tin warrants are 5,976 tons, up 246 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 285,400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 285,960 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The basis of the Shanghai tin main contract is -360 yuan/ton, down 850 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) is 74 US dollars/ton, up 34 US dollars [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 0.87 million tons, down 0.16 million tons. - The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 273,400 yuan/ton, up 1,000 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrate is 277,400 yuan/ton, up 1,000 yuan. - The processing fee for 40% tin concentrate by Antaike is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the processing fee for 60% tin concentrate by Antaike is 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 1.4 million tons, down 0.16 million tons; the import volume of refined tin is 1,501.64 tons, up 63.06 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 184,850 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 110.93 million tons, up 14.48 million tons; the export volume of tin - plated sheets is 19.76 million tons, up 3.1 million tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - Blue Fuan stated that the government will further implement a package of debt resolution plans, replace local government's existing implicit debts, and establish a long - term supervision system for local government debts. - The US ISM manufacturing PMI in October dropped to 48.7%, contracting for eight consecutive months, with weak demand and employment and cooling inflation. - Fed Governor Milan believes that Fed policy is too tight and should achieve a neutral interest rate through a series of 50 - basis - point interest rate cuts [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - The report suggests a long - position strategy. The zinc ore import volume has increased, but domestic zinc ore processing fees have been lowered, and sulfuric acid prices have dropped, leading to a significant contraction in smelter profits and restricted growth in refined zinc output. Overseas zinc supply is tight, and the export window has opened. On the demand side, the traditional peak season effect of "Golden September and Silver October" is weak, with the real estate sector being a drag, and there are some bright spots in the automotive and home appliance sectors due to policy support. Downstream demand recovery is insufficient, domestic inventory accumulation has slowed, LME inventory has decreased, and the spot premium has risen. Technically, the increase in positions and price rise signals a strong long - position sentiment, and attention should be paid to the MA5 support [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main SHFE zinc contract is 22,670 yuan/ton, up 105 yuan; the 12 - 01 contract price spread of SHFE zinc is - 30 yuan/ton, unchanged. The LME three - month zinc quotation is 3,108 dollars/ton, up 58 dollars. The total open interest of SHFE zinc is 225,814 lots, up 4,126 lots; the net open interest of the top 20 in SHFE zinc is 12,756 lots, up 1,900 lots. The SHFE zinc warehouse receipts are 68,197 tons, up 548 tons. The SHFE inventory is 103,416 tons, down 5,752 tons; the LME inventory is 33,825 tons, down 1,475 tons [3] 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,580 yuan/ton, up 230 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 22,720 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan. The basis of the main ZN contract is - 90 yuan/ton, up 125 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is 130.71 dollars/ton, up 45.14 dollars. The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 18,080 yuan/ton, up 690 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,950 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 27,800 tons, down 5,700 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is 47,900 tons, up 17,700 tons. The global zinc ore production is 1.0976 million tons, up 21,400 tons; domestic refined zinc production is 651,000 tons, up 34,000 tons. Zinc ore imports are 505,400 tons, up 38,100 tons [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - Refined zinc imports are 22,677.51 tons, down 2,979.32 tons; refined zinc exports are 2,477.83 tons, up 2,166.92 tons. The social zinc inventory is 162,200 tons, down 1,200 tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The production of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, up 10,000 tons; the sales of galvanized sheets are 2.28 million tons, down 90,000 tons. The newly started housing area is 453.99 million square meters, up 55.9799 million square meters; the completed housing area is 311.2888 million square meters, up 34.3534 million square meters. Automobile production is 3.227 million vehicles, up 474,600 vehicles; air - conditioner production is 18.0948 million units, up 1.276 million units [3] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for zinc is 13.54%, up 1%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for zinc is 13.54%, up 1%. The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 10.49%, up 0.98%; the 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 9.42%, up 0.19% [3] 3.7 Industry News - China will further implement a package of debt resolution plans, replace local government's existing implicit debts, and establish a long - term supervision system for local government debts. The US ISM manufacturing PMI in October dropped to 48.7%, contracting for eight consecutive months, with weak demand and employment and cooling inflation. A Fed governor believes that the Fed's policy is too tight and should achieve a neutral interest rate through a series of 50 - basis - point interest rate cuts [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the issuance of special refinancing bonds by local governments in China to replace hidden debts, aiming to mitigate repayment risks and reduce interest costs. Group 1: Debt Replacement Plans - Local governments plan to issue a total of 2 trillion yuan in special refinancing bonds this year to replace 2 trillion yuan of existing hidden debts, thereby extending debt maturity and lowering interest rates [1] - As of October 16, 29 provinces have issued approximately 1.99 trillion yuan in refinancing bonds, nearly completing the 2 trillion yuan debt replacement plan for this year [1] - China plans to allow local governments to issue 2 trillion yuan in refinancing bonds annually from 2024 to 2026, totaling 6 trillion yuan, with 4 trillion yuan already completed for 2024 and 2025 [1] Group 2: Provincial Debt Issuance - Jiangsu province leads with a planned issuance of 251.1 billion yuan in refinancing bonds for debt replacement, having received 753.3 billion yuan of the total 6 trillion yuan allocation [2] - Other provinces such as Hunan, Shandong, Guizhou, Henan, and Sichuan have issued over 100 billion yuan each, while Guangdong and Shanghai, as pilot regions for clearing hidden debts, did not receive any allocation [2] - Henan's issuance of 115.08 billion yuan this year is lower than last year's 122.7 billion yuan, indicating a remaining allocation of approximately 7.6 billion yuan [2] Group 3: Financial Impact - The average interest cost of replaced debts has decreased by over 2.5 percentage points, saving local governments more than 450 billion yuan in interest payments [3] - The debt replacement process has improved the asset quality of financial institutions, significantly reducing risks and enhancing their willingness and ability to lend to the real economy [4] Group 4: Future Plans and Recommendations - The remaining 2 trillion yuan for 2026 will be expedited, with suggestions to issue an additional 1 trillion yuan in local government bonds this year to further alleviate hidden debt risks [5] - Experts recommend adjusting the distribution of the 6 trillion yuan debt replacement strategy to better address local debt situations rather than spreading it evenly [5] Group 5: Overall Debt Safety - As of August 2025, the total local government debt stands at 53.2484 trillion yuan, remaining within the approved limit of 57.9874 trillion yuan [6]