事实上，贷款增长既与中长期经济结构转型升级等背景有关，（下转A02版） （上接A01版）也受到直接融资发展、企业融资渠道日益多元化的影响，还叠加地方政府债务置换、中 小银行化险、专项债使用效率提高等因素。 ● 本报记者 彭扬 中国人民银行8月13日发布的数据显示，7月末，社会融资规模、广义货币（M2）增速均保持在较高水 平，为实体经济提供了适宜的货币金融环境，体现出适度宽松的货币政策取向。 专家表示，上半年，人民银行出台了一揽子货币政策，有力地支持了实体经济回升向好。各项政策效果 将进一步显现并持续释放，对实现全年经济社会发展目标任务提供有力支撑。 信贷保持合理增长 数据显示，前7个月人民币贷款增加12.87万亿元；7月末人民币贷款余额268.51万亿元，同比增长 6.9%。 专家表示，6月和7月信贷数据波动，一方面与金融机构上半年报表披露和实体企业结算窗口期有较大关 系；另一方面则是因为今年地方政府债务置换对贷款数据影响较大，还原相关影响后，7月人民币贷款 增速仍明显高于GDP增速。 具体而言，6月恰逢金融机构半年报披露，部分机构会出现短期调整信贷投放节奏、拉高6月数据的情 况，这种"冲时点"的做法在以往年 ...

Core Viewpoint - The rapid issuance of refinancing special bonds by local governments to replace existing hidden debts is a proactive measure to accelerate debt resolution and reduce overall debt risks in China [1][2]. Group 1: Debt Replacement and Financial Impact - As of now, at least 30 local governments have announced plans to issue refinancing special bonds totaling over 19,605 billion yuan for replacing hidden debts, with a target of completing 20,000 billion yuan by the end of the year [1]. - The issuance of these bonds allows local governments to convert short-term, high-cost hidden debts into long-term, low-cost special bonds, optimizing the debt structure and easing future repayment pressures [1][3]. Group 2: Policy Changes and Economic Implications - The recent policy shift marks a fundamental change in debt management, moving from emergency responses to proactive resolutions, and from fragmented risk management to comprehensive debt transparency [2]. - The increase in local government debt limits and the arrangement of special bond quotas are seen as key measures to enhance economic vitality and boost development confidence, particularly in areas like technology innovation and environmental protection [2][3]. Group 3: Broader Economic Effects - The quick issuance of refinancing special bonds is expected to alleviate local fiscal pressures, allowing funds to be redirected towards infrastructure, industry support, and innovation, thereby promoting economic growth and enhancing market confidence [3]. - By resolving hidden debts, local governments can improve the balance sheets of economic entities, releasing development potential and contributing to high-quality macroeconomic development [3].

Group 1: Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure - In the first half of the year, the national general public budget revenue was 11.5566 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%, with tax revenue at 9.2915 trillion yuan, down 1.2%, and non-tax revenue at 226.51 billion yuan, up 3.7% [1] - The national general public budget expenditure reached 14.1271 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%, with significant growth in social security and employment spending by 9.2%, education spending by 5.9%, and health spending by 4.3% [1][3] - Monthly tax revenue has shown a recovery trend since April, with a continuous increase for three months, indicating a gradual improvement in economic conditions [1] Group 2: Fiscal Policy and Support Measures - The Ministry of Finance has implemented a more proactive fiscal policy to boost consumption and stabilize employment, ensuring timely budget approvals and fund disbursements [2] - In the first half of the year, the central government allocated 929 billion yuan in transfer payments to local governments, accounting for 89.8% of the annual budget, which is an increase of 1.7 percentage points compared to the previous year [2] - Special bonds worth 2.6 trillion yuan were issued to support major projects at the local level, with an additional 658.3 billion yuan allocated for long-term special bonds to support key projects [2] Group 3: Special Bonds Management - The issuance and use of special bonds have accelerated, with 2.16 trillion yuan of new local government special bonds issued in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 45% [4] - The management of special bonds has shifted to a "negative list" approach, allowing more projects to qualify for funding, including land reserves and affordable housing [5] - The Ministry of Finance has enhanced supervision of special bond funds to prevent misappropriation and ensure proper management of assets and repayment [6] Group 4: Debt Replacement Policy - As of the end of June, 1.8 trillion yuan of the 2 trillion yuan debt replacement bonds for 2025 had been issued, with 1.44 trillion yuan already utilized [7] - The debt replacement policy has alleviated liquidity pressure by replacing high-interest, short-term hidden debts with low-interest bonds, thus reducing overall debt servicing costs [8] - The implementation of the replacement policy has released significant financial resources for local governments, allowing them to focus on economic development and structural adjustments [8]

Group 1 - In the first half of the year, the securities transaction stamp duty increased by 54.1% year-on-year, while corporate income tax decreased by 1.9%, personal income tax increased by 8%, domestic consumption tax increased by 1.7%, vehicle purchase tax decreased by 19.1%, and tariffs decreased by 7.7% [2] - The national government fund budget revenue for the first half of the year was 1.9442 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.4%. The income from the transfer of state-owned land use rights was 1.4271 trillion yuan, down 6.5% year-on-year [2] - From April, monthly tax revenue has shown year-on-year growth, with April increasing by 1.9%, May by 0.6%, and June by 1% [2] Group 2 - Non-tax revenue growth has slowed, with declines of 2.2% and 3.7% in May and June respectively. Revenue from the paid use of state resources increased by 4.8%, while administrative fees grew by 1% [3] - The Ministry of Finance has implemented a more proactive fiscal policy, focusing on boosting consumption and stabilizing employment and the economy. In the first half of the year, central government transfers to local governments reached 9.29 trillion yuan, accounting for 89.8% of the annual budget [3] - A total of 2.6 trillion yuan in new local government bonds were issued in the first half of the year to support major projects [3] Group 3 - The Ministry of Finance has increased efforts to ensure basic livelihoods and introduced new measures to boost consumption, including childcare subsidies and gradually implementing free preschool education [4] - Two batches of long-term special bond funds totaling 162 billion yuan were allocated for the replacement of old consumer goods [4] - A pilot project for providing consumption subsidies to elderly individuals with moderate to severe disabilities has been initiated to alleviate their care costs [4]

21世纪经济报道记者周潇枭 北京报道7月25日，财政部召开2025年上半年财政收支情况新闻发布会。 上半年，全国一般公共预算收入约11.56万亿元，同比下降0.3%，降幅较一季度收窄0.8个百分点。其 中，全国税收收入9.29万亿元，下降1.2%；非税收入2.27万亿元，增长3.7%。分中央和地方看，上半年 中央一般公共预算收入4.86万亿元，下降2.8%；地方一般公共预算本级收入6.7万亿元，增长1.6%。 上半年，全国一般公共预算支出14.13万亿元，同比增长3.4%。分中央和地方看，中央一般公共预算本 级支出1.99万亿元，增长9%；地方一般公共预算支出12.14万亿元，增长2.6%。 （财政部2025年上半年财政收支情况发布会现场图，21记者现场拍摄） 从主要税种收入状况来看，上半年国内增值税3.64万亿元，增长2.8%；企业所得税2.49万亿元，下降 1.9%；国内消费税8980亿元，增长1.7%；进口货物增值税、消费税8729亿元，下降6.1%；个人所得税 7945亿元，增长8%。另外，上半年出口退税1.27万亿元，增长11.6%。 今年上半年我国GDP增长5.3%，受物价低迷、出口退税增长较快等 ...

Summary of Conference Call on Engineering Machinery Industry Industry Overview - The engineering machinery industry is experiencing fluctuations in domestic market performance, particularly in excavator sales, which saw a decline in growth rate since April 2025. The expected growth rate for June is projected to be within ±5% [1][2] - Despite short-term volatility, the long-term outlook for the domestic excavator market remains positive, with strong production schedules for medium and large excavators [1][2] Company Performance Expectations - Annual net profit forecasts for key companies in the engineering machinery sector are optimistic: - SANY Heavy Industry: ¥8.5 billion - XCMG: ¥7.5 billion - Zoomlion: ¥4.8-5 billion - LiuGong: ¥1.8-1.9 billion - The second quarter is expected to show significant year-on-year growth for these companies [1][3] Market Dynamics - The domestic market has a high proportion of small excavators (70-80%), which have lower profitability. However, the export market has shown a year-on-year growth of 8-9% from January to May 2025, supporting overall performance [1][5] - Non-excavator products, such as truck cranes, have shown a notable recovery, alleviating some domestic performance pressures [1][5] Valuation and Investment Opportunities - The engineering machinery sector has seen a valuation correction, with P/E ratios for major companies at relatively low levels: - SANY: 17x - XCMG: 12x - Zoomlion: 12-13x - LiuGong: 10-13x - This presents a favorable investment opportunity [1][6] Future Market Outlook - The domestic market is not expected to experience significant declines in the coming months, with strong production data from Hengli Hydraulic and positive feedback from dealers regarding downstream demand [1][7] - If local government funding issues are resolved, the market is anticipated to gradually recover and grow in the second half of the year [1][8] Funding Sources and Government Impact - Funding for the engineering machinery industry primarily comes from two sources: small investors and central government allocations for water conservancy projects, which provide stable cash flow and support excavator demand [1][9] - The issuance of ¥1 trillion in government bonds, with 70-80% directed towards water conservancy projects, is expected to stabilize cash flow and support demand for excavators [1][10] Debt Replacement Effects - Local government debt replacement has led to a temporary decline in operating rates, but new projects are expected to increase in the second half of 2025 and into 2026, boosting excavator sales [1][11][12] Long-term Market Trends - The domestic excavator market is projected to experience an upward trend over the next few years, driven by replacement demand and the export of used equipment [1][13] - Non-excavator equipment markets are also showing signs of recovery, with significant improvements in profitability for companies like SANY [1][14] Export Market Performance - The export market for engineering machinery has remained stable, with excavator exports growing by 8% from January to May 2025, despite some fluctuations due to tariff adjustments [1][15] - Chinese brands have a significant presence in emerging markets, with potential for substantial growth in regions like Southeast Asia, Africa, and South America [1][19][20] Recommendations for Investment - Key companies recommended for investment include: - SANY Heavy Industry: Strong performance and potential for profit release - XCMG: Notable scale advantages, though facing short-term caution due to stock unlock issues - Zoomlion: Focus on tower crane and aerial work platform recovery - LiuGong: Attractive valuation with significant upside potential - Hengli Hydraulic: Strong short-term growth potential and global expansion opportunities [1][25][26]

Core Viewpoint - The report outlines the 2024 central government budget execution, highlighting a slight increase in revenue and stable expenditure, with a central fiscal deficit of 3.34 trillion yuan, aligning with budget expectations [1][2]. Revenue Summary - The central general public budget revenue reached 10,046.206 billion yuan, achieving 98.1% of the budget and reflecting a 0.9% increase from 2023 [1]. - Total revenue, including transfers from various funds and carryover funds, amounted to 10,884.406 billion yuan [1]. Expenditure Summary - Central general public budget expenditure totaled 14,105.59 billion yuan, completing 97.9% of the budget and remaining stable compared to 2023 [1][2]. - Specific expenditures included: - General public services: 155.238 billion yuan - Defense: 1,665.208 billion yuan - Education: 166.071 billion yuan - Science and technology: 361.909 billion yuan [2]. Debt Issuance Summary - The central government issued 12,567.361 billion yuan in national bonds for 2024, with the year-end national debt balance at 34,572.362 billion yuan, within the approved limit [3]. - Local government debt issuance reached 9,804.214 billion yuan, with a focus on replacing hidden debts and supporting government investment projects [3]. Special Bonds and Support Measures - A total of 1 trillion yuan in special long-term bonds was issued to support consumption and investment, with 700 billion yuan allocated for major projects and 300 billion yuan for consumer incentives [4]. - The report noted significant consumer activity, with over 6.8 million vehicles and 62 million home appliances replaced, generating over 1.3 trillion yuan in sales [4]. Social Welfare and Employment - Over 110 billion yuan was spent on employment support, with increased living allowances for economically disadvantaged students benefiting nearly 20 million individuals [5]. - The report indicated a planned adjustment in retirement benefits and an increase in the minimum pension standard, with participation in basic pension insurance reaching 1.07 billion people by the end of 2024 [5]. Fiscal Performance Overview - From January to May, national general public budget expenditure grew by 4.2%, while revenue saw a slight decline of 0.3% [6]. - The issuance of national bonds and local government bonds increased significantly, with a focus on enhancing fiscal support for public welfare and consumption [6].

Core Viewpoint - The National People's Congress (NPC) is taking measures to manage local government debt effectively, including the approval of an increase in the local government debt limit by 6 trillion yuan to replace hidden debts, which is aimed at ensuring stable local fiscal operations and supporting high-quality development [1]. Group 1 - The NPC approved an increase of 6 trillion yuan in local government debt limits to replace existing hidden debts [1]. - By the end of last year, the 2 trillion yuan replacement bond quota for 2024 had been fully issued, with most regions completing the debt replacement [1]. - The issuance work for the 2 trillion yuan replacement bonds for 2025 has already been initiated, which helps to effectively prevent and mitigate local government debt risks [1]. Group 2 - The NPC Standing Committee will enhance supervision of government debt management, particularly focusing on the implementation of the increased local government debt limit for replacing hidden debts [1]. - There is a commitment to further strengthen government debt management and to establish a debt management mechanism that aligns with high-quality development [1]. - These measures are intended to support the sustained and healthy development of the economy and society [1].