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核心业务稳步复苏,新业务重点减亏
浦银国际证券· 2024-03-25 16:00
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for the company, with an adjusted target price of HKD 94, reflecting a potential upside of 7% from the current price of HKD 88.25 [29][39]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of RMB 737 billion for Q4 2023, a year-on-year increase of 22.6%, surpassing market expectations by 1.2%. The gross margin improved by 5.7 percentage points to 33.9%, driven by changes in revenue structure and reduced delivery costs [2]. - Adjusted net profit for Q4 2023 was RMB 44 billion, exceeding market expectations of RMB 29 billion, with an adjusted net profit margin of 5.9% [2]. - The company aims to narrow losses in new business segments, particularly focusing on improving user experience and reducing subsidies rather than solely expanding market share [13][29]. Financial Summary - For FY22, the company reported a revenue of RMB 219,955 million, which is projected to grow to RMB 276,745 million in FY23 and further to RMB 312,702 million in FY24E [3]. - The adjusted net profit is expected to rise from RMB 2,827 million in FY22 to RMB 23,253 million in FY23, and reach RMB 29,722 million in FY24E [3]. - The operating profit is forecasted to improve significantly from a loss of RMB 5,820 million in FY22 to a profit of RMB 13,415 million in FY23, and further to RMB 21,419 million in FY24E [3]. Business Performance - The core local business revenue grew by 26.8% year-on-year to RMB 551 billion in Q4 2023, with delivery, commission, and advertising revenues increasing by 11%, 33%, and 41% respectively [22]. - The number of delivery transactions increased by 25.2% year-on-year to 6 billion, with daily average orders reaching 65.7 million [22]. - The new business segment reported a revenue of RMB 186 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 11%, although the operating loss was RMB 48 billion [22].
及时调整1Q24及全年销量指引,继续稳步提升经营效率
浦银国际证券· 2024-03-24 16:00
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of $40.8 for LI.US and HKD 159.5 for 2015.HK, indicating a potential upside of 29% and 32% respectively [9][11][30]. Core Views - The company has adjusted its Q1 2024 delivery guidance downwards from 100,000-103,000 units to 76,000-78,000 units, while maintaining a year-on-year sales growth target of 50%-70% for the full year [10]. - The report highlights that the company's sales share remains stable, and the performance of plug-in hybrid vehicles continues to outperform pure electric models, providing reasonable growth space [10]. - The company aims to stabilize its gross margin above 20% in 2024, with expectations for continued profit release as delivery volumes grow [10][12]. Financial Forecasts and Metrics - Revenue projections for 2024E are set at RMB 191,081 million, with a growth rate of 54% compared to the previous year [12]. - The net profit forecast for 2024E is RMB 15,174 million, reflecting a significant increase from a loss of RMB 2,012 million in 2022 [12]. - The gross margin is expected to be 21.0% in 2024E, with a gradual increase to 22.4% by 2026E [12][13]. - The report notes a downward adjustment in revenue and profit forecasts for 2024-2026, with new estimates showing an 8% decrease in revenue for 2024E compared to previous forecasts [13]. Delivery and Sales Performance - The company anticipates achieving a total delivery volume of 608,000 units in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 62% [10]. - The average selling price of vehicles is projected to decline slightly, with expectations of RMB 306,356 in Q1 2024 [14]. - The report indicates that the company's single-vehicle profitability has been improving, with a projected profit of RMB 23,324 per vehicle in Q1 2024 [14]. Valuation - The report employs a sum-of-the-parts valuation method, assigning a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.5x for automotive sales and 15.0x for other revenues, leading to the target price of $40.8 for LI.US [11][15]. - The current market valuation is noted to be below the average, suggesting limited downside risk [10].
2023年收入增速略超预期,密网支架有望年内获批
浦银国际证券· 2024-03-24 16:00
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 16.0, indicating a potential upside of 68% from the current price [4]. Core Insights - The company's revenue growth for 2023 slightly exceeded expectations, with a year-on-year increase of 58% to RMB 528 million, surpassing the guidance of over RMB 500 million [1][2]. - The gross margin experienced a slight decline of 3.5 percentage points to 72.9% due to price reductions from centralized procurement, but the company expects to improve its net profit margin to approximately 14% by 2025 through scale effects and operational efficiency [1][2]. - The company achieved its first profit under adjusted net income, reporting RMB 7.03 million, compared to a net loss of RMB 78.73 million under IFRS [1][2]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company forecasts a revenue increase of 43% in 2024, reaching RMB 756 million, with a net profit of RMB 72.1 million, resulting in a net profit margin of 9.5% [2][3]. - The projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for revenue from 2023 to 2026 is estimated at 38% [2]. Product Approval and Market Position - The company anticipates the approval of two key products, the mesh stent and peripheral vascular sutures, within 2024, which are expected to drive further revenue growth [1][2]. - The company’s neurointervention business saw a revenue increase of 64% in 2023, with core products maintaining a leading market share [1][2]. Market and Competitive Landscape - The company’s core products, including the "Jiaolong" thrombectomy stent and "Yin She" intracranial support catheter, were successfully selected in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei centralized procurement, which is expected to enhance market share [1][2]. - The company has entered a strategic partnership with Avinger for peripheral intervention products, with expected approval in 2025 and projected revenue contribution of at least RMB 20 million in 2026 [2]. Financial Metrics - The report provides a financial outlook with projected revenues and net profits for the years 2024 to 2026, indicating a recovery trajectory with net profits expected to reach RMB 237 million by 2026 [3][8]. - The price-to-sales (P/S) ratio is projected to decrease from 5.5x in 2023 to 2.1x in 2026, reflecting anticipated growth in revenue [3][9].
科技行业中国移动:AI、算力、新质生产力推动公司成长,引领科技创新
浦银国际证券· 2024-03-24 16:00
科技行业 | 行业追踪 中国移动:AI、算力、新质生产力推 沈岱 首席科技分析师 浦 tony_shen@spdbi.com 银 动公司成长,引领科技创新 (852) 2808 6435 国 际 黄佳琦 中国移动目标实现 2024 年收入、利润良好增长。2023 年,中国移动经营 科技分析师 业绩稳定增长,实现收入人民币 10.1 万亿元,同比增长 7.7%,EBITDA 人 sia_huang@spdbi.com 民币 3,415 亿元,同比增长 3.75%,净利润 1,318 亿元,同比增长 6.3%。 (852) 2809 0355 展望 2024 年,管理层预期公司将实现收入和利润的良好增长。其中,个人 和家庭市场的 ARPU 稳健增长,政企市场收入良好增长,新型市场收入快 2024年3月25日 行 速增长。公司预计 2024 年资本开支将下降至 1,730 亿元,占收比预计降至 业 追 20%以下。公司公布 2023 年派息率为 71%,并计划从 2024 年起 3 年内提 踪 升到 75%以上。这为中国移动未来的股息表现奠定基础,推升投资价值。 进一步看,中国移动大力推动从单纯的运营商角色,向科技 ...
核心业务利润维持高位稳定,智能电动车业务有望释放估值
浦银国际证券· 2024-03-21 16:00
浦银国际研究 公司研究 | 科技行业 小米集团(1810.HK):核心业务利润维持 沈岱 浦 高位稳定,智能电动车业务有望释放估值 首席科技分析师 银 tony_shen@spdbi.com 国 (852) 2808 6435 重申小米的“买入”评级,上调目标价至 18.6港元,潜在升幅 28%。 际 黄佳琦 重申小米的“买入”评级:小米 4Q23 业绩表现强劲,经调整利润  科技分析师 人民币 49 亿元,同比增长236%,符合我们预期。我们预计经调整 sia_huang@spdbi.com 并扣除新业务费用后,小米 2024 年核心业务(智能手机、IoT、互 (852) 2809 0355 联网)利润有望保持高位。小米智能电动车近期将开启交付,贡献 2024年3月21日 收入,有望逐步释放该业务估值。同时,我们认为小米也是 AI 端 侧落地手机直接受益标的。进一步展望 2025 年,小米核心业务利 评级 润有持续增长能力,配合智能电动车业务毛利增量,预期小米经调 公 整总利润将增长加速。目前目标价对应2024年、2025年经调整利润 目标价(港元) 18.6 司 研 市盈率为16.3x、14.9x,估值 ...
游戏业务疲软,毛利率持续改善,加大股东回报
浦银国际证券· 2024-03-21 16:00
(700.HK) 图表 1:盈利预测和财务指标 人民币百万元 FY22 FY23 FY24E FY25E FY26E 营业收入 554,552 608,940 667,246 733,181 793,592 毛利润 238,746 293,034 347,777 378,185 409,197 调整后净利润 115,649 157,613 189,966 206,648 223,685 调整后目标 PE(x) 16.2 14.9 13.8 E=浦银国际预测,资料来源:Bloomberg、浦银国际 公司研究 | 互联网行业 浦银国际研究 腾讯(700.HK):游戏业务疲软,毛利 率持续改善,加大股东回报 收入不及预期,加大股东回报:腾讯 4Q23 收入人民币 1552 亿元,同 比增长 7%,低于市场预期 1.4%;调整后净利润为 427 亿元,同比增长 44%,高于市场预期 1.7%;调整后净利率为 27.5%,去年同期为 20.5%, 主要得益于毛利率改善。公司宣布计划将 2024 年股份回购规模至少翻 倍,超 1000 亿港元,约为当前市值 3.7%;宣派末期股息每股 3.4 港 元,同比增长 42%,股 ...
首次实现全年盈利,电商延续强劲势头
浦银国际证券· 2024-03-21 16:00
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Kuaishou Technology with a target price adjusted to HKD 66, indicating a potential upside of 26% from the current price of HKD 52.25 [3][4]. Core Insights - Kuaishou achieved its first annual profit in FY23, with a revenue of RMB 113.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 20.5%. The gross margin improved by 7.6 percentage points to 53.1%, driven by changes in revenue structure and reduced bandwidth costs. The adjusted net profit reached RMB 10.3 billion, exceeding market expectations by 12.5% [2][3]. - Monthly active users (MAU) surpassed 700 million, with daily active users (DAU) at 383 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.4%. Advertising revenue grew by 21% to RMB 18.2 billion, primarily fueled by strong growth in e-commerce internal circulation advertising [2][3]. - The e-commerce ecosystem continues to strengthen, with a projected 25% growth in GMV for 2024. In Q4 2023, e-commerce revenue reached RMB 4.039 billion, a 29% year-on-year increase, significantly outperforming the industry average [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - FY23 revenue was RMB 113.5 billion, with an operating profit of RMB 6.431 billion and an adjusted net profit of RMB 10.271 billion. The forecast for FY24 revenue is RMB 127.143 billion, with an expected adjusted net profit of RMB 15.942 billion [4][6]. User Metrics - DAU reached 383 million, a 4.5% increase year-on-year, while MAU hit 700 million, up 9.4%. However, total user time decreased by 2.9% due to a decline in user engagement [2][3]. Advertising and E-commerce Growth - Advertising revenue for Q4 2023 was RMB 18.2 billion, a 21% increase, driven by strong performance in e-commerce advertising. The e-commerce GMV for Q4 2023 was RMB 403.9 billion, reflecting a 29% year-on-year growth [2][3].
业务结构调整基本完成,毛利率及费用缩减推动减亏
浦银国际证券· 2024-03-21 16:00
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for Ping An Good Doctor (1833.HK) and lowers the target price to HKD 15.0 [1][3]. Core Views - The business restructuring initiated in November 2021 is nearly complete, leading to improved gross margins and reduced expenses, which have contributed to a better-than-expected net loss for 2023. Revenue is anticipated to return to growth in 2024 [1][2]. - In 2023, the company reported a revenue decline of 24.7% year-on-year to RMB 4.67 billion, which was below expectations. However, gross margin improved by 5.3 percentage points, and expenses were reduced significantly, resulting in an adjusted net loss of RMB 320 million, a 64.1% reduction compared to the previous year [1][2]. Summary by Sections Revenue Breakdown - F-end (financial clients) revenue increased by 14.8% year-on-year to RMB 2.20 billion, with a 7% increase in paid users to 26.3 million and an ARPU growth of 7.5%. The penetration rate for paid users in the F-end is only 11% compared to over 200 million personal clients of Ping An Group. The company expects low-teens growth for F-end revenue in 2024 [1][2]. - B-end (enterprise clients) revenue surged by 81.2% year-on-year to RMB 1.08 billion, with a 75% increase in paid users to 5.1 million and a growth of 530 enterprises served to 1,508. The B-end client penetration rate is 2.7% against over 55,000 paid enterprises in Ping An Group. The company anticipates mid-teens growth for B-end revenue in 2024 [1][2]. - C-end (individual users) revenue dropped by 62% year-on-year to RMB 1.39 billion. With the completion of strategic adjustments, the company expects C-end revenue to stabilize in 2024 [1][2]. Financial Projections - The adjusted non-IFRS net loss for 2024 is projected to be RMB 230 million, and for 2025, it is expected to turn into profit. The target price is set at 2x the 2025E P/S, reflecting a decrease from the historical average [1][2][3]. - The report includes financial forecasts for 2024E to 2026E, indicating a gradual recovery in revenue and a reduction in net losses over the forecast period [2][6].
运营效率提升推动净亏损好于预期
浦银国际证券· 2024-03-21 16:00
浦银国际研究 公司研究 | 医药行业 信达生物(1801.HK):运营效率提升 阳景 浦 推动净亏损好于预期 首席医药分析师 银 Jing_yang@spdbi.com 国 (852) 2808 6434 信达生物 2H23 收入符合我们预期,由于经营效率的提高,净亏损好 际 于我们预期。我们预计 2024年收入同比增速约为 25%。公司将心血管 胡泽宇 CFA 代谢、自身免疫、眼科三大业务合并为综合产品线,且新任的心血管 医药分析师 代谢商业化负责人之前有着丰富的中国市场 GLP-1 推广经验,显示出 ryan_hu@spdbi.com 公司正在稳步推进其非肿瘤业务商业化进程。受益于收入和运营效率 (852) 2808 6446 的进一步提升,我们认为公司目前正有条不紊地走在其之前设立的盈 利目标轨迹上(2025年实现 non-IFRS EBITDA 盈亏平衡)。重申我们的 2024年3月21日 “买入”评级和首选股票推荐,上调目标价至 60港元。 公 司  2H23 收入符合预期,净亏损好于我们预期:2H23 公司实现总收入 评级 研 人民币 35 亿元 (51.3% YoY/29.7% HoH),其中 ...
收入利润皆翻倍,为何股价高开低走?
浦银国际证券· 2024-03-21 16:00
浦银国际研究 公司研究 ( PDD.US) 拼多多(PDD.US):收入利润皆翻倍, 为何股价高开低走? 海外业务维持爆发式增长:4Q23 集团整体收入同比增长 123%,且连 续第四个季度提速,主要得益于 Temu 业务持续高速增长。交易服务 收入同比增长 357%,远高于我们预期,Temu 业务相关佣金收入爆发 式增长。海外业务仍在快速扩张,我们预计 2024 年或仍实现翻倍增 长。而国内方面,拼多多平台受益于消费分级趋势,性价比优势依然 凸显,持续扩大市场份额。去年"双十一"大促期间,拼多多平台百 亿补贴用户达到 6.2 亿,订单量翻倍,仍保持强劲增长,远高于大盘 的个位数增速。 为何强劲业绩后,股价高开低走?公司收入和利润皆翻倍增长,增速 在中国互联网上市公司中处于断档式领先,但业绩发布后股价高开低 走,YTD 股价跌幅近 10%,跑输互联网行业大盘。我们认为地缘政治 风险是对公司股价的最大压制。出海业务成为双刃剑,一方面爆发式 增长成为公司第二增长曲线,另一方面,海外业务占比提升也面临更 大的地缘政治风险。市场对于拼多多的分歧,主要是对海外环境不确 定性的担忧,情绪仍偏谨慎。我们认为,短期来看,美国 ...