千味央厨（001215.SZ） 食品加工 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2024 年 11 月 01 日 执业证书编号：S0740517030001 Email：fanjs@zts.com.cn 报告摘要 事件：公司发布 2024 年三季报。24 年前 3 季度，公司实现营业总收入 13.64 亿 元，同比+2.70%；归母净利润 0.82 亿元，同比-13.49%；扣非归母净利润 0.81 亿 元，同比-1.25%。3Q24，公司实现营业总收入 4.72 亿元，同比-1.17%；实现归母 净利润 0.22 亿元，同比-42.08%；扣非归母净利润 0.23 亿元，同比-23.54%。 需求偏淡，收入承压。3Q24，公司营收同比下滑 1.17%，环比增加 10%，需求展现 出一定的旺季不旺特征，对公司营收增长形成一定压力，静待下游餐饮景气度企 稳回暖。 费用投放有所加大，盈利能力仍旧承压。3Q24，公司毛利率为 22.44%，同比 +0.04pcts；公司销售/管理/研发/财务费用率为 4.89%/9.26%/1.28%/-0.07%，同 比+0.81/+1.19/+0.15/-0.41pcts，费用投放有所加 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company achieved a record high revenue of 2.86 billion yuan in Q3 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 68.3% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 370 million yuan, up 102.5% year-on-year [1] - The company is expected to continue its upward revenue trajectory in Q4, driven by increased orders from major clients such as Li Auto, Geely, and BYD [1] Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: - 2023A: 2,600 million yuan - 2024E: 3,937 million yuan (growth rate of 51%) - 2025E: 5,551 million yuan (growth rate of 41%) - 2026E: 6,662 million yuan (growth rate of 20%) [1][2] - **Net Profit Forecasts**: - 2023A: 309 million yuan - 2024E: 538 million yuan (growth rate of 74.5%) - 2025E: 730 million yuan (growth rate of 35.7%) - 2026E: 877 million yuan (growth rate of 20.1%) [1][2] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2023A: 0.76 yuan - 2024E: 1.33 yuan - 2025E: 1.80 yuan - 2026E: 2.17 yuan [1][2] - **Gross Margin**: - 2023: 25.5% - 2024E: 27.3% - 2025E: 27.0% - 2026E: 27.0% [2] Market Position and Client Base - The company has established strong relationships with major clients, including Li Auto, Geely, and BYD, which are expected to drive continued growth [1] - The company is positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for modular body components in the automotive sector [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 3.4 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 11.7% [1] - The third quarter revenue was 9.6 billion yuan, showing a quarter-on-quarter increase of 26.9% [1] - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery in customer demand and the ramp-up of new projects, particularly with major clients like Tesla [1] - The company is actively expanding its production capacity in integrated die-casting and lightweight vehicle body projects to meet customer needs [1] Financial Summary - Revenue (million yuan): - 2022A: 3,355 - 2023A: 3,959 - 2024E: 4,628 - 2025E: 5,218 [1] - Year-on-year growth rate for revenue: - 2022A: 21% - 2023A: 1% - 2024E: 17% - 2025E: 13% [1] - Net profit attributable to the parent company (million yuan): - 2022A: 446 - 2023A: 509 - 2024E: 614 - 2025E: 712 [1] - Year-on-year growth rate for net profit: - 2022A: 16% - 2023A: 2% - 2024E: 21% - 2025E: 16% [1] - Earnings per share (yuan): - 2022A: 1.87 - 2023A: 2.13 - 2024E: 2.57 - 2025E: 2.98 [1] - Price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio: - 2023A: 13.7 - 2024E: 12.0 - 2025E: 9.9 - 2026E: 8.6 [1] - Price-to-book (P/B) ratio: - 2023A: 1.3 - 2024E: 1.1 - 2025E: 1.0 [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 performance was impacted by exchange rate fluctuations, with a revenue of 14.36 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 18.9% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.0%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 390 million yuan, up 6.4% year-on-year but down 23.1% quarter-on-quarter [1][2] - The consumer electronics business continues to perform well, supported by a gradual recovery in global smartphone sales, with IDC reporting an increase in global smartphone shipments [2] - The company has adjusted its accounting policy regarding warranty costs, which has affected the gross margin calculation, indicating better underlying performance than reported [2] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 54.92 billion yuan, 64.19 billion yuan, and 74.07 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 15%, 17%, and 15% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 1.67 billion yuan in 2024, 2.06 billion yuan in 2025, and 2.44 billion yuan in 2026, with growth rates of 55%, 24%, and 18% respectively [1] - The company's P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 25.2 in 2024 to 17.3 in 2026, indicating an improving valuation [1] Market and Business Outlook - The report highlights that the global smartphone market is expected to reach 1.23 billion units in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 5.8%, driven by the rollout of AI features and increasing replacement demand [2] - The company's self-supply ratio for 3C battery cells is expected to continue increasing, and it aims to expand its client base in the laptop battery segment, which is anticipated to lead to rapid growth in the consumer electronics business [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is facing pressure on performance due to intensified competition, while cash flow continues to improve. The report highlights that the company's revenue and net profit have significantly declined year-on-year, primarily due to weak downstream demand and adjustments in channel structure [1][2] - The report predicts a decline in revenue for 2024, with a forecast of 4.913 billion yuan, representing a 17% year-on-year decrease. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 192 million yuan, a 28% decrease compared to the previous year [1][2] - The company is focusing on enhancing product strength, optimizing sales channels, and improving brand recognition to achieve stable operational performance that outperforms the industry [1][2] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - Revenue (in million yuan): 2022A: 6,229, 2023A: 5,921, 2024E: 4,913, 2025E: 5,184, 2026E: 5,443 [1] - Year-on-year growth rate: 2022A: -11%, 2023A: -5%, 2024E: -17%, 2025E: 6%, 2026E: 5% [1] - Net profit (in million yuan): 2022A: -381, 2023A: 266, 2024E: 192, 2025E: 249, 2026E: 341 [1] - Earnings per share (in yuan): 2022A: -0.92, 2023A: 0.64, 2024E: 0.46, 2025E: 0.60, 2026E: 0.82 [1] Market Conditions - The report indicates that the real estate market is experiencing a downturn, with a 24.4% year-on-year decrease in the national housing completion area for the first nine months of 2024. This has led to a contraction in demand [1] - The company’s sales in the engineering sector have also been affected, with significant declines in revenue due to cost fluctuations and price reductions [1][2] Strategic Initiatives - The company is implementing a channel down-sinking strategy to enhance its distribution network, particularly in county and town markets. It aims to upgrade store formats and optimize sales structures while leveraging digital marketing [1][2] - The company has established a leading position in the ceramic industry through continuous product innovation and the introduction of high-value products [1][2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][3] Core Views - The company's Q3 performance met market expectations, and there is anticipation for the release of performance elasticity from ultra-high voltage projects [1] - The company is expected to see significant earnings elasticity as it enters the main equipment electrical installation phase, with ongoing ultra-high voltage project construction expected to continue [1] Financial Summary - Revenue (in million yuan): - 2022A: 14,917 - 2023A: 17,061 - 2024E: 19,085 - 2025E: 22,110 - 2026E: 24,016 - Year-on-year growth rates: - 2022A: 24% - 2023A: 14% - 2024E: 12% - 2025E: 16% - 2026E: 9% [1] - Net profit attributable to the parent company (in million yuan): - 2022A: 759 - 2023A: 1,005 - 2024E: 1,216 - 2025E: 1,711 - 2026E: 2,026 - Year-on-year growth rates: - 2022A: 5% - 2023A: 32% - 2024E: 21% - 2025E: 41% - 2026E: 18% [1] - Earnings per share (in yuan): - 2022A: 0.75 - 2023A: 0.99 - 2024E: 1.19 - 2025E: 1.68 - 2026E: 1.99 [1] Investment Highlights - The company has shown continuous revenue growth and improving profitability, with a notable increase in gross margins across its business segments [1] - The company’s expense ratio has slightly increased, primarily due to scale control, but the rising sales expense ratio is expected to drive business expansion [1] - The report anticipates that the ultra-high voltage construction pace will accelerate, with approvals expected to speed up, enhancing the company's performance potential [1]

Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [1][2] Core Views - The company's revenue and net profit have declined significantly in 2024, with revenue decreasing by 19.28% YoY to RMB 26.649 billion and net profit attributable to shareholders decreasing by 61.51% YoY to RMB 2.798 billion [2] - The company's Q3 2024 performance showed a continued decline, with revenue decreasing by 19.19% YoY and net profit attributable to shareholders decreasing by 71.03% YoY [2] - Despite the decline in performance, the company's Q3 coal production and sales showed some improvement, with coal production increasing by 2.56% QoQ and coal sales increasing by 6.12% QoQ [2] - The company's profitability is under pressure due to declining coal prices and rising costs, with the gross profit per ton of coal decreasing by 30.53% YoY in the first three quarters of 2024 [2] - The company is expected to see a recovery in performance from 2025, with revenue and net profit expected to grow by 3.7% and 12.7% YoY, respectively [4] Financial Performance and Valuation - The company's revenue is expected to be RMB 34.405 billion, RMB 35.686 billion, and RMB 36.694 billion in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with YoY growth rates of -20%, 4%, and 3% [1] - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be RMB 3.511 billion, RMB 3.959 billion, and RMB 4.320 billion in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with YoY growth rates of -56%, 13%, and 9% [1] - The company's EPS is expected to be RMB 1.17, RMB 1.32, and RMB 1.44 in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [1] - The company's P/E ratio is expected to be 13.1X, 11.6X, and 10.6X in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [1] - The company's ROE is expected to be 7%, 7%, and 8% in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [1] Production and Sales - The company's coal production in the first three quarters of 2024 was 42.47 million tons, a decrease of 4.82% YoY, with mixed coal production of 21.21 million tons (down 4.29% YoY) and PCI coal production of 14.99 million tons (down 6.49% YoY) [2] - The company's coal sales in the first three quarters of 2024 were 38.07 million tons, a decrease of 5.79% YoY, with mixed coal sales of 21.24 million tons (down 3.59% YoY) and PCI coal sales of 14.88 million tons (down 3.94% YoY) [2] - In Q3 2024, the company's coal production was 14.80 million tons (down 1.86% YoY, up 2.56% QoQ), with mixed coal production of 7.44 million tons (up 8.61% YoY, up 1.64% QoQ) and PCI coal production of 5.29 million tons (down 8.95% YoY, up 9.07% QoQ) [2] - In Q3 2024, the company's coal sales were 13.52 million tons (up 1.81% YoY, up 6.12% QoQ), with mixed coal sales of 7.39 million tons (up 10.79% YoY, up 1.23% QoQ) and PCI coal sales of 5.52 million tons (down 2.65% YoY, up 15.72% QoQ) [2] Industry Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from the trend of large-scale blast furnaces in downstream steel mills, which will drive demand for PCI coal [2] - The company, as a leading PCI coal producer in China, is expected to see further growth in production in Q4 2024, driven by Shanxi's coal production target [2] Financial Ratios - The company's gross margin was 47.7% in 2023, but is expected to decline to 36.6% in 2024, before recovering to 37.8% and 38.7% in 2025 and 2026, respectively [4] - The company's net margin was 21.5% in 2023, but is expected to decline to 11.9% in 2024, before recovering to 13.0% and 13.8% in 2025 and 2026, respectively [4] - The company's ROE was 16.0% in 2023, but is expected to decline to 6.8% in 2024, before recovering to 7.3% and 7.6% in 2025 and 2026, respectively [4] - The company's debt-to-equity ratio was 18.3% in 2023, and is expected to remain stable at around 18.5% in 2024, before declining to 17.6% and 16.7% in 2025 and 2026, respectively [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [2][3]. Core Views - The company has shown a significant advantage in high-end products, and the establishment of a new subsidiary is expected to enhance its competitiveness [2]. - The company’s revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was 437 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.07%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 76 million yuan, down 16.83% [1][2]. - The report predicts that the company's net profit for 2024-2026 will be 131 million yuan, 139 million yuan, and 158 million yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 14.1, 13.2, and 11.7 [3]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 147 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 15.40%, and a net profit of 39 million yuan, down 3.74% [2]. - The gross margin and net margin for the first three quarters were 48.36% and 17.31%, reflecting slight decreases of 0.43 percentage points and 1.98 percentage points respectively compared to the previous year [2]. - The company’s operating cash flow was negative at -23 million yuan, a significant decline of 158.95% year-on-year, primarily due to reduced sales and increased customer credit terms [2]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is positioned in the mid-to-high-end market, maintaining a gross margin above 40%, with nearly 70% of its revenue coming from overseas markets [2]. - The establishment of a new wholly-owned subsidiary aims to enhance research and development capabilities and improve overall profitability [2]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that as domestic manufacturers upgrade their products, the import volume will decrease, allowing local brands to capture a larger market share [3]. - The company’s revenue is expected to recover slightly in 2025 and 2026, with projected growth rates of 6% and 14% respectively [2][3].

欧派家居（603833.SH） 家居用品 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2024 年 10 月 31 日 收入仍有承压，盈利改善显著 ——欧派家居 24Q3 点评 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 3.671 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 17.96%, with a net profit of 470 million yuan, up 49.64% year-on-year [1] - The board proposed a profit distribution plan for the first three quarters of 2024, with a dividend of 2.5 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 100 million yuan [1] - The company has optimized its brand matrix, with the high-end brand "弗列加特" showing significant performance, ranking third in GMV during the Double Eleven shopping festival, with a 230% year-on-year increase [1] - The overall gross margin for the first three quarters was 41.98%, up 6.2 percentage points year-on-year, driven by product structure optimization and a higher proportion of direct sales [1] - The company is expected to strengthen its leading position in the pet food industry, with projected revenues of 5.295 billion yuan, 6.586 billion yuan, and 8.155 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [1] Financial Summary - Revenue (million yuan): 4,327 in 2023A, 5,295 in 2024E, 6,586 in 2025E, 8,155 in 2026E [2] - Net profit (million yuan): 429 in 2023A, 629 in 2024E, 819 in 2025E, 1,055 in 2026E [2] - Earnings per share (yuan): 1.07 in 2023A, 1.57 in 2024E, 2.05 in 2025E, 2.64 in 2026E [2] - The company’s total assets are projected to reach 5.670 billion yuan in 2024E and 8.349 billion yuan in 2026E [2] - The company’s cash flow from operating activities is expected to be 1.412 billion yuan in 2024E [2]